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Posted

Agreed that he is at the top of this list because of his age and also agreed that he is not Aaron Rodgers quite yet. I'm not sure anyone thinks he is. But the guy was as big a prospect and as sure of a bet as there has been coming into the league in as long as I can remember. Maybe ever?? He has prototypical size, he went to Stanford, his dad played in the NFL and he can run. And three years in, he has hasn't disappointed one bit. I would say he is right at expectations so far- I wouldn't even say that he has exceeded them. He is going to be the best QB in the league once the big 4 is gone for a long, long time. He is going to win a Super Bowl, if not several. I think today he is the third best QB in the NFL behind Brady and Rodgers. We'll see what happens this year. If he improves on last year's 4761/40/16 performance, perhaps he can achieve Matt Ryan status.

Haha. He's a stud no doubt. But let's not crown him yet.

Posted (edited)

Agreed that he is at the top of this list because of his age and also agreed that he is not Aaron Rodgers quite yet. I'm not sure anyone thinks he is. But the guy was as big a prospect and as sure of a bet as there has been coming into the league in as long as I can remember. Maybe ever?? He has prototypical size, he went to Stanford, his dad played in the NFL and he can run. And three years in, he has hasn't disappointed one bit. I would say he is right at expectations so far- I wouldn't even say that he has exceeded them. He is going to be the best QB in the league once the big 4 is gone for a long, long time. He is going to win a Super Bowl, if not several. I think today he is the third best QB in the NFL behind Brady and Rodgers. We'll see what happens this year. If he improves on last year's 4761/40/16 performance, perhaps he can achieve Matt Ryan status.

 

Except in the playoffs where he has been 3 straight years and has yet to have a single post season with more TDs than INTs. In 3 years, he has 9TDs and 12INTS.

 

This kid is going to get better, and I know that will eventually change. However, this kid has proven he can win anything yet...for all we know he may end up being the next prolific passer in the regular season who too often disappoints in the post season.

 

Thats why I went Rodgers, then Wilson, then Luck in that order when I made this thread. No one is better than Rodgers right now come week 1...he is young enough to build around still, he's the only choice for the #1 spot in my book.

 

Wilson has been in the league the same amount of time as Luck. He took over a team with consecutive 7 win seasons and led them to an average of 12 wins and 2 Super Bowl Titles. More importantly in his 3 years in the playoffs, not only is his team winning, but his rating has been outstanding too with 2 post seasons over 100 and one over 90. Lucks best post season rating was in the 70's during the same 3 years.

 

Until Luck can prove he can win when it counts, then I can't elevate him any higher than 3. I don't buy the whole "his team isn't as good" because he's playing with the same team in the post season as he is in the regular season where he puts up gaudy stats. I heard the same excuses for Peyton for years, yet Peyton always found a way to get those "bad teams" to 12-14 wins and prolific passing numbers in the regular season, but 9 times was one and done in the playoffs, even as the #1 seed.

 

I fully expect Luck to keep improving and be one of the best QBs in the league for years to come...I just haven't seen enough during the playoffs to put him higher than 3 right now.

Edited by Alphadawg7
Posted

 

Except in the playoffs where he has been 3 straight years and has yet to have a single post season with more TDs than INTs. In 3 years, he has 9TDs and 12INTS.

 

This kid is going to get better, and I know that will eventually change. However, this kid has proven he can win anything yet...for all we know he may end up being the next prolific passer in the regular season who too often disappoints in the post season.

 

Thats why I went Rodgers, then Wilson, then Luck in that order when I made this thread. No one is better than Rodgers right now come week 1...he is young enough to build around still, he's the only choice for the #1 spot in my book.

 

Wilson has been in the league the same amount of time as Luck. He took over a team with consecutive 7 win seasons and led them to an average of 12 wins and 2 Super Bowl Titles. More importantly in his 3 years in the playoffs, not only is his team winning, but his rating has been outstanding too with 2 post seasons over 100 and one over 90. Lucks best post season rating was in the 70's during the same 3 years.

 

Until Luck can prove he can win when it counts, then I can't elevate him any higher than 3. I don't want to hear about "his team isn't as good" because he's playing with the same team in the post season as he is in the regular season where he puts up gaudy stats. I heard the same excuses for Peyton for years, yet Peyton always found a way to get those "bad teams" to 12-14 wins and prolific passing numbers in the regular season, but NINE times was one and done in the playoffs, even as the #1 seed.

 

I fully expect Luck to keep improving and be one of the best QBs in the league for years to come...I just haven't seen enough during the playoffs to put him higher than 3 right now.

Interesting analysis for someone who put Matt Ryan in their top 5

Posted

Interesting analysis for someone who put Matt Ryan in their top 5

i also enjoyed that he keeps making the 7 win season argument as if wilson was the only addition, but ignores how bad the colts were the year before luck.

 

but in arguing 2 vs 3 in this list, im not going to hash it out too much.

Posted (edited)

Interesting analysis for someone who put Matt Ryan in their top 5

 

And I said I struggled on choosing him at 5 for the very same reasons...and I put luck AHEAD of him at 3. So whats your point?

 

My exact statement on the original post to start this thread about Ryan:

5. Ryan - Another great regular season guy but hasn't been able to get his team over the hump in the playoffs.

i also enjoyed that he keeps making the 7 win season argument as if wilson was the only addition, but ignores how bad the colts were the year before luck.

 

but in arguing 2 vs 3 in this list, im not going to hash it out too much.

 

You guys crack me up...so its the defense and run game that makes Wilson good...but you give no credence to the idea that both the defense and Lynch improved with Wilson making the offense better.

 

I said many times it was NOT all Wilson, but the extreme jumps can NOT all be credited to a run game and defense.

 

Please explain to me how Marshawn Lynch was a career rusher UNDER 4 ypc, including 2 years in Seattle at an avg of 3.95 YPC before Wilson and now in the 3 years with Wilson is a 4.65 YPC guy.

 

I mean its crazy how little credit anyone wants to give Wilson given the dramatic improvements across that team since his arrival. NO ONE says its ALL Wilson, but you guys are hating on another level if you don't think he was a large part of it.

Edited by Alphadawg7
Posted (edited)

 

And I said I struggled on choosing him at 5 for the very same reasons...and I put luck AHEAD of him at 3. So whats your point?

My point is by your same analysis, Flacco is head and shoulders above Matt Ryan. Flacco has a playoff record of 10-5 in the same amount of time Ryan has gone 1-4, and Flacco's team has made the playoffs and won a game every year of his career but 1. Also, the Ravens were 5-11 the year before Flacco got there, for what it's worth.

Edited by BuffaloHokie13
Posted

Luck certainly is at the top of this list. But with anything, he is becoming overrated. He plays in maybe the worst division in the NFL, turns the ball over a lot, & has been bad against the Pats.

 

I definitely see him winning a SB and a possible HOF career. But to take him over Rodgers at this point is getting caught up in the hype.

 

Sorry to hear that. I actually do most of my posting at work. :)

Luck is up there for sure, but I cite the same reasons you have. He's good and maybe slightly overrated, he can't get over the hump like the young P. Mannig.

Oh so similar.

 

thanks (I guess?) living in an area where everyone wants an active Top Secret clearance sure slows down finding a new job. Being close to 60 isn't helping either.

Posted (edited)

My point is by your same analysis, Flacco is head and shoulders above Matt Ryan. Flacco has a playoff record of 10-5 in the same amount of time Ryan has gone 1-4, and Flacco's team has made the playoffs and won a game every year of his career but 1.

 

I agree, and I said that I had a hard time specifically between Flacco and Ryan in a couple posts later on the first page. In the end, I went with who I felt would be the better QB if all things were equal and it was close.

 

In the end, I felt the Falcons overall roster was bad enough to give him the benefit of the doubt in what I felt was a very close debate. I don't have a problem at all putting Flacco at 5, it was very close for me. I struggled with Ryan, Cam, Flacco, and pure upside play of Bridgewater at 5. I chose the guy I felt was the QB with the most overall talent, and it was close.

 

I don't know that if all things equal Luck and Wilson would have the same post season performance. Luck doesn't have a hard time putting great stats up in the regular season, but in the post season he has been terrible all 3 years. Every post season he has had more INTs than TDs and he's had better receiving weapons than Wilson and still poorly threw the ball.

 

Wilson has been outstanding in the postseason as a passer, not just record. He's a true duel threat weapon who has delivered when called upon. If Luck played well in the post season and lost, it would be a harder choice...but given his personal poor performance all 3 years and Wilsons outstanding performance, I have to go with the guy who's shown me he can get the job done.

Luck certainly is at the top of this list. But with anything, he is becoming overrated. He plays in maybe the worst division in the NFL, turns the ball over a lot, & has been bad against the Pats.

 

I definitely see him winning a SB and a possible HOF career. But to take him over Rodgers at this point is getting caught up in the hype.

 

Sorry to hear that. I actually do most of my posting at work. :)

 

Totally agree

Edited by Alphadawg7
Posted (edited)

Look, in the NFL in 2015, if you are an elite QB, your team is pretty much going to make the playoffs. I know the Saints haven't a few times but by and large, no matter how bad the rest of your roster is, you're going to be 10-6. But in order to get over the "hump," you gotta have a good team around you as well. Andrew Luck has gotten his team to the playoffs each of his first three years- and won three games. That's good! The year before he was on the Colts, they were 1-15. Last year, he got his team as far as it could go, including a resounding win in Denver, but they didn't have the horses to win in New England. That is not an indictment against Luck. You guys realize that no QB that's ever lived was quarterbacking that Colts team and winning that game in New England, right? His team has made some moves and once that defense improves, he will start winning his Super Bowls (hell of a running game he's had so far too huh?) The comparisons to Peyton Manning and him being some sort of "playoff choker" are a joke. They lost at the eventual Super Bowl winners in Baltimore his first year and at New England each of the last two seasons. Manning has lost lots of playoffs games that the Colts- and Broncos for that matter- were SUPPOSED to win. And as if Andrew Luck wouldn't have won a Super Bowl if he was the Seahawks QB the last three years. Everyone likes to oversimplify around here- on one side is "all that matters is wins" and on the other side is "wins are a futile way to gauge a QB, it's all the rest of the team." No... the answer is somewhere in the middle. The QB is by FAR the most important player but he can't do everything by himself. Anyway Andrew Luck is not overrated, that's ridiculous.

Edited by metzelaars_lives
Posted

 

I agree, and I said that I had a hard time specifically between Flacco and Ryan in a couple posts later on the first page. In the end, I went with who I felt would be the better QB if all things were equal and it was close.

 

In the end, I felt the Falcons overall roster was bad enough to give him the benefit of the doubt in what I felt was a very close debate. I don't have a problem at all putting Flacco at 5, it was very close for me. I struggled with Ryan, Cam, Flacco, and pure upside play of Bridgewater at 5. I chose the guy I felt was the QB with the most overall talent, and it was close.

 

I don't know that if all things equal Luck and Wilson would have the same post season performance. Luck doesn't have a hard time putting great stats up in the regular season, but in the post season he has been terrible all 3 years. Every post season he has had more INTs than TDs and he's had better receiving weapons than Wilson and still poorly threw the ball.

 

Wilson has been outstanding in the postseason as a passer, not just record. He's a true duel threat weapon who has delivered when called upon. If Luck played well in the post season and lost, it would be a harder choice...but given his personal poor performance all 3 years and Wilsons outstanding performance, I have to go with the guy who's shown me he can get the job done.

 

Totally agree

 

 

So wait, because the Seahawks have won more post season games, Wilson is the better post season QB, if all things were equal? Let's look at Wilson's passing stats a little more.

 

In 3 years Wilson has played 8 post season games. He has attempted 202 passes, roughly 25 passes a game. He's completed 123 passes, roughly 15 a game. He's thrown for 1,820 yards, 227 per game. So an average playoff game for Wilson is 15/25 227 yards. He's also averages 1.5 TD's and .5 int per game.

 

Now let's look at Luck. Luck has played in 6 postseason games. He has attempted 260 passes, 43 attempts per game. He's completed 147 passes, 25 per game. He's thrown for 1,829 yards, 304 per game. An average playoff game for Luck is 25/43 for 304 yard. Luck average's the same amount of TD's per game at 1.5 but his int average is 2 per game. Luck has played in less games but thrown for more yards and had more passing attempts.

 

Look at those numbers side by side:

 

15/25

227 yards

1.5 TD's

.5 INT's

 

25/43

304 yards

1.5 TD's

2 INT's

 

To me, if they didn't have names attached to them, I'd say one of those is a game manager and the other is asked to win games with his arm. And that's further shown by the other areas of the team. The Seahawks rushing offense averages 121 yards per game, that's minus Wilson's rushes. They have 9 rushing TD's in 8 games. Seattle's defense on average allows a total of 336 yards per game, 224 yards passing and 111 yards rushing. Whereas the Colts rushers average 79 yards per game, minus Luck who averages about 25 YPG rushing. They have only rushed for 3 TD's in all 6 of their playoff games. The Colts defense on average allows 385 YPG, 230 yards passing and 154 yards rushing. They have allowed the Patriots** to rush for 177 and 234 yards.

 

The two team situation's are very different if you ask me and if you gave Luck Seatte's rushing offense and defense, he would have won 2 Super Bowls.

Posted

 

 

So wait, because the Seahawks have won more post season games, Wilson is the better post season QB, if all things were equal? Let's look at Wilson's passing stats a little more.

 

In 3 years Wilson has played 8 post season games. He has attempted 202 passes, roughly 25 passes a game. He's completed 123 passes, roughly 15 a game. He's thrown for 1,820 yards, 227 per game. So an average playoff game for Wilson is 15/25 227 yards. He's also averages 1.5 TD's and .5 int per game.

 

Now let's look at Luck. Luck has played in 6 postseason games. He has attempted 260 passes, 43 attempts per game. He's completed 147 passes, 25 per game. He's thrown for 1,829 yards, 304 per game. An average playoff game for Luck is 25/43 for 304 yard. Luck average's the same amount of TD's per game at 1.5 but his int average is 2 per game. Luck has played in less games but thrown for more yards and had more passing attempts.

 

Look at those numbers side by side:

 

15/25

227 yards

1.5 TD's

.5 INT's

 

25/43

304 yards

1.5 TD's

2 INT's

 

To me, if they didn't have names attached to them, I'd say one of those is a game manager and the other is asked to win games with his arm. And that's further shown by the other areas of the team. The Seahawks rushing offense averages 121 yards per game, that's minus Wilson's rushes. They have 9 rushing TD's in 8 games. Seattle's defense on average allows a total of 336 yards per game, 224 yards passing and 111 yards rushing. Whereas the Colts rushers average 79 yards per game, minus Luck who averages about 25 YPG rushing. They have only rushed for 3 TD's in all 6 of their playoff games. The Colts defense on average allows 385 YPG, 230 yards passing and 154 yards rushing. They have allowed the Patriots** to rush for 177 and 234 yards.

 

The two team situation's are very different if you ask me and if you gave Luck Seatte's rushing offense and defense, he would have won 2 Super Bowls.

i think thats pretty fair. even though "game manager" is looked down on more than it should be.

Posted

i think thats pretty fair. even though "game manager" is looked down on more than it should be.

Yea nothing wrong with that label. He doesn't have to win games and sling the ball.

Posted

That's fair, at least you have Luck in your top 5. Or at least I'm assuming.

Top 5 to start a team? Absolutely.

 

Top 5 to win one game? Not quite yet. I would definitely take him over Peyton the Big Game Chump though.

Posted (edited)

 

 

So wait, because the Seahawks have won more post season games, Wilson is the better post season QB, if all things were equal? Let's look at Wilson's passing stats a little more.

 

In 3 years Wilson has played 8 post season games. He has attempted 202 passes, roughly 25 passes a game. He's completed 123 passes, roughly 15 a game. He's thrown for 1,820 yards, 227 per game. So an average playoff game for Wilson is 15/25 227 yards. He's also averages 1.5 TD's and .5 int per game.

 

Now let's look at Luck. Luck has played in 6 postseason games. He has attempted 260 passes, 43 attempts per game. He's completed 147 passes, 25 per game. He's thrown for 1,829 yards, 304 per game. An average playoff game for Luck is 25/43 for 304 yard. Luck average's the same amount of TD's per game at 1.5 but his int average is 2 per game. Luck has played in less games but thrown for more yards and had more passing attempts.

 

Look at those numbers side by side:

 

15/25

227 yards

1.5 TD's

.5 INT's

 

25/43

304 yards

1.5 TD's

2 INT's

 

To me, if they didn't have names attached to them, I'd say one of those is a game manager and the other is asked to win games with his arm. And that's further shown by the other areas of the team. The Seahawks rushing offense averages 121 yards per game, that's minus Wilson's rushes. They have 9 rushing TD's in 8 games. Seattle's defense on average allows a total of 336 yards per game, 224 yards passing and 111 yards rushing. Whereas the Colts rushers average 79 yards per game, minus Luck who averages about 25 YPG rushing. They have only rushed for 3 TD's in all 6 of their playoff games. The Colts defense on average allows 385 YPG, 230 yards passing and 154 yards rushing. They have allowed the Patriots** to rush for 177 and 234 yards.

 

The two team situation's are very different if you ask me and if you gave Luck Seatte's rushing offense and defense, he would have won 2 Super Bowls.

 

Except statistically, Wilson has had one of the best starts to an NFL career in NFL history in both regular season AND playoffs.

 

Russells career average QB rating is better than Lucks BEST year. His post season rating is substantially higher.

 

Luck TD:INT post season ratio is .75:1 (he's never had a post season with MORE TDs than INTs in his 3 years). Wilsons TD:INT ratio is 2.33:1 which is almost 3 times better than Lucks.

 

Wilsons WORST post season rating of 90.3 is 15 points higher than Lucks BEST post season rating.

 

Last I checked, the most important part of winning football games was not turning the ball over. When you throw for more INTS than TD's, you don't usually go far in the playoffs. And Luck has had better weapons to throw to.

 

If you took ONLY those stats you listed with no names...I promise you 100 out of 100 coaches would take Wilsons stat line of highly efficient and effective football over a guy who has more yards but turns the ball over.

 

But all this is a moot point...No one on this board would be upset to have either Luck or Wilson on the Bills. I might cry I would be so happy...they are both great young QBs. But my personal preference is to take the kid who has PROVEN to me he can win, protect the ball, make plays, and is a dual threat. Luck is some of those things, but not all of those...YET. Fantasy football is not the NFL. If this was Fantasy Football only, Luck gets the edge...if I need to win a playoff series, give me Wilson.

 

I don't even mind if people rank Luck ahead of him. Its the total disregard for all Wilson has done that baffles me.

Edited by Alphadawg7
Posted

 

Except statistically, Wilson has had one of the best starts to an NFL career in NFL history in both regular season AND playoffs.

 

Russells career average QB rating is better than Lucks BEST year. His post season rating is substantially higher.

 

Luck TD:INT post season ratio is .75:1 (he's never had a post season with MORE TDs than INTs in his 3 years). Wilsons TD:INT ratio is 2.33:1 which is almost 3 times better than Lucks.

 

Wilsons WORST post season rating of 90.3 is 15 points higher than Lucks BEST post season rating.

 

Last I checked, the most important part of winning football games was not turning the ball over. When you throw for more INTS than TD's, you don't usually go far in the playoffs. And Luck has had better weapons to throw to.

 

If you took ONLY those stats you listed with no names...I promise you 100 out of 100 coaches would take Wilsons stat line of highly efficient and effective football over a guy who has more yards but turns the ball over.

 

But all this is a moot point...No one on this board would be upset to have either Luck or Wilson on the Bills. I might cry I would be so happy...they are both great young QBs. But my personal preference is to take the kid who has PROVEN to me he can win, protect the ball, make plays, and is a dual threat. Luck is some of those things, but not all of those...YET. Fantasy football is not the NFL. If this was Fantasy Football only, Luck gets the edge...if I need to win a playoff series, give me Wilson.

 

I don't even mind if people rank Luck ahead of him. Its the total disregard for all Wilson has done that baffles me.

Dude they're both awesome. Give Luck a few years as far as the playoff TD/INT ratio, it'll more than even itself out.

Posted

 

Except statistically, Wilson has had one of the best starts to an NFL career in NFL history in both regular season AND playoffs.

 

Russells career average QB rating is better than Lucks BEST year. His post season rating is substantially higher.

 

Luck TD:INT post season ratio is .75:1 (he's never had a post season with MORE TDs than INTs in his 3 years). Wilsons TD:INT ratio is 2.33:1 which is almost 3 times better than Lucks.

 

Wilsons WORST post season rating of 90.3 is 15 points higher than Lucks BEST post season rating.

 

Last I checked, the most important part of winning football games was not turning the ball over. When you throw for more INTS than TD's, you don't usually go far in the playoffs. And Luck has had better weapons to throw to.

 

If you took ONLY those stats you listed with no names...I promise you 100 out of 100 coaches would take Wilsons stat line of highly efficient and effective football over a guy who has more yards but turns the ball over.

 

But all this is a moot point...No one on this board would be upset to have either Luck or Wilson on the Bills. I might cry I would be so happy...they are both great young QBs. But my personal preference is to take the kid who has PROVEN to me he can win, protect the ball, make plays, and is a dual threat. Luck is some of those things, but not all of those...YET. Fantasy football is not the NFL. If this was Fantasy Football only, Luck gets the edge...if I need to win a playoff series, give me Wilson.

 

I don't even mind if people rank Luck ahead of him. Its the total disregard for all Wilson has done that baffles me.

In the 2014 NFC Championship his passer rating was less than 10 in the 4th quarter, he salvaged a 44.3 rating by the end of OT. He had 1 TD and 4 INT's in that game. His worst certainly is not 90.3

Posted

In the 2014 NFC Championship his passer rating was less than 10 in the 4th quarter, he salvaged a 44.3 rating by the end of OT. He had 1 TD and 4 INT's in that game. His worst certainly is not 90.3

He's to a degree cherry picking by intentionally burying that game. There's no doubt in my mind that's why he's using the compiled stay

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