CJ Spiller a Superstar?

[FireChan]

Yep. No question he's an extraordinary player. The one year he was healthy in a decent offense he was extraordinary. There are a lot of backs in the league who "can't do the entire job" and there are a lot who cannot be a workhorse. He's an amazing player, he just gets hurt too much. That's surely a problem because you cannot count on him to be healthy. I'll bet you anything he has a great season if he doesn't get hurt.

He's an amazing athlete, not football player. He's rendered pretty ineffective by tweaking an ankle. Because all of his game is based solely on his athleticism. This is football, great players can still be great when nursing a light injury. Spill's cannot.

 

He has poor vision, poor IQ, poor durability, and non-existent blocking ability. He can just run fast. That doesn't make you a good football player.

Edited June 25, 2015 by FireChan

[KD in CA]

 

I really resent the comparisons to Sproles. Sproles is exceptionally good at letting blocks develop then exploding through the crease: the precise mechanic in CJ's game that's holding back, tremendously.

 

Here's a fun fact. People love to trumpet Spiller's 5.0 career YPC as evidence of his greatness. Sproles' career average is 5.2.

[Mr. WEO]

 

Here's a fun fact. People love to trumpet Spiller's 5.0 career YPC as evidence of his greatness. Sproles' career average is 5.2.

 

 

Yeah, but.....

[FireChan]

 

Here's a fun fact. People love to trumpet Spiller's 5.0 career YPC as evidence of his greatness. Sproles' career average is 5.2.

That's just ordinary.

[Kelly the Dog]

I really resent the comparisons to Sproles. Sproles is exceptionally good at letting blocks develop then exploding through the crease: the precise mechanic in CJ's game that's holding back, tremendously.

 

I wasn't even thinking of that. I was thinking that he is a breakaway runner but not a power runner, a pass catcher good on screens and dump offs, not an every down workhorse, makes guys miss, very fast and elusive. He's the same kind of player. He doesn't have to run like him to be the same kind of player.

[The Big Cat]

 

Here's a fun fact. People love to trumpet Spiller's 5.0 career YPC as evidence of his greatness. Sproles' career average is 5.2.

 

Spiller's career carry to reception ratio: 4.22/1

Sproles': 1.18:1

 

Spiller's career yds/rec: 7.6

Sproles': 9.0

[Kelly the Dog]

Here's a fun fact. People love to trumpet Spiller's 5.0 career YPC as evidence of his greatness. Sproles' career average is 5.2.

Because they are similar players. I just think Spiller is far better. If Spiller played on the teams Spoles did and Sproles played on the Bills, I think it would be more like Spiller 5.5 and Sproles 4.8. There is no way of knowing that of course. But I can't wait to see Spiller's season this year. It's going to be exciting. Everyone is entitled to their opinion but this will probably be a good litmus test.

Who wants to bet me anything they want that Spiller's year will be closer to his 2012 year than his 2014 year. I won't even count injuries.

[The Big Cat]

Because they are similar players. I just think Spiller is far better. If Spiller played on the teams Spoles did and Sproles played on the Bills, I think it would be more like Spiller 5.5 and Sproles 4.8. There is no way of knowing that of course. But I can't wait to see Spiller's season this year. It's going to be exciting. Everyone is entitled to their opinion but this will probably be a good litmus test.

 

But they're not similar players. Sproles does the VAST majority of his damage on swing passes and screens. May be Spiller hasn't been in an offense that features him this way (he will be this year), but the fact is, the pass-catching production between the two is not even close.

[NoSaint]

 

2010: 20.4%

2011: 22.2%

2012: 28.1%

2013: 37.5%

2014:40.7

 

(all based on 3.8% of carries, rounded up)

 

Also, 78 isn't that abnormal:

 

2010: 74

2011: 107

2012: 207

2013: 202

my abnormal notes with the 78 was that its small for running backs in general IE for a lot of backs, thats a month not a season. also, that the season itself was a bit of a disaster between the line, and rushing game play coordination and.... so im not sure that already small sample was representative of the players long term ability. i know hes been limited in touches generally speaking though.

 

looking at your numbers it looks like the boom or bust factor really skyrocketed once marrone got there. coincidence, or scheme/play calling related, im not going to claim to know, as its the first ive toyed with these. just seemed worth noting as a trend that might be relevant. he went from average/a little high (even in his best season) to VERY boom or bust under Doug/nate

 

to pull your earlier percentages for other players to help keep a benchmark and organization....

 

Shady: 24.6%

Murray: 22.8%

Bell: 25.4%

 

 

and of course, my bad on the 3.8%.... i was just shooting off some hypotheticals and napkin math on my phone lastnight.

Edited June 25, 2015 by NoSaint

[Kelly the Dog]

But they're not similar players. Sproles does the VAST majority of his damage on swing passes and screens. May be Spiller hasn't been in an offense that features him this way (he will be this year), but the fact is, the pass-catching production between the two is not even close.

 

That's why Spiller is way better. Because he does that and he's a better runner.

[The Big Cat]

In Sproles' three years with NO (2011-2013) he had 86, 75, 71 receptions.

 

On the Bills, in those same years, that would have made him the first, second and first leading receiver respectively, falling behind Stevie in 2012 by only four receptions.

[Kelly the Dog]

In Sproles' three years with NO (2011-2013) he had 86, 75, 71 receptions.

 

On the Bills, in those same years, that would have made him the first, second and first leading receiver respectively, falling behind Stevie in 2012 by only four receptions.

And precisely why Spiller is going to have 75-80 receptions and run wild.

[The Big Cat]

That's why Spiller is way better. Because he does that and he's a better runner.

 

He might be a better runner, but not by much. But there is virtually zero evidence that he's a better receiver, and THAT'S what Sproles' money maker.

 

So, essentially we're comparing apples and oranges with the two.

And precisely why Spiller is going to have 75-80 receptions and run wild.

 

Well, isn't that what we're debating here?

[NoSaint]

 

He might be a better runner, but not by much. But there is virtually zero evidence that he's a better receiver, and THAT'S what Sproles' money maker.

 

So, essentially we're comparing apples and oranges with the two.

 

with receiving stats, perhaps yes and no.... backs in SPs offense get a lot of catches. reggie bush got 88 receptions on 119 targets as a rookie. he averaged 6 receptions a game in new orleans, and guys like pierre thomas take a share of catches too. it may soon be the real bread and butter for spiller too.

[Kelly the Dog]

He might be a better runner, but not by much. But there is virtually zero evidence that he's a better receiver, and THAT'S what Sproles' money maker.

 

So, essentially we're comparing apples and oranges with the two.

 

Well, isn't that what we're debating here?

I think Sproles is very, very good and effective. I always have. I love him as a player. I really think that Chip Kelly was stupid to sign Ryan Matthews after he got Murray who can't help but take snaps from Sproles.

[The Big Cat]

with receiving stats, perhaps yes and no.... backs in SPs offense get a lot of catches. reggie bush got 88 receptions on 119 targets as a rookie. he averaged 6 receptions a game in new orleans, and guys like pierre thomas take a share of catches too. it may soon be the real bread and butter for spiller too.

 

not for a second do i deny that possibility.

 

but at this point, that's all it is.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Spiller's career carry to reception ratio: 4.22/1

Sproles': 1.18:1

 

Spiller's career yds/rec: 7.6

Sproles': 9.0

That is a total function of the offense and EXACTLY why some of us are expecting a big year for Spiller. Those numbers will change drastically this year. 2 years ago the Saints had 2 backs with over 70 catches. Their plan is for Spiller to be the featured pass catching back.

 

You can throw previous stats out the window when anticipating Spiller's production. He will be used completely differently. The perfect example of a Bills player this year that everyone will think has improved is Nickell Robey. It is the exact same thing. He is in the perfect position to succeed. He will be blitzing left and right and will be productive. Manny Lawson is another guy that fits perfectly in this system. Their improved production, much like Spiller's, won't be because they are a ton better but because they were put in position to thrive.

Edited June 25, 2015 by Kirby Jackson

[The Big Cat]

That is a total function of the offense and EXACTLY why some of us are expecting a big year for Spiller. Those numbers will change drastically this year. 2 years ago the Saints had 2 backs with over 70 catches. Their plan is for Spiller to be the featured pass catching back.

 

You can throw out the window stats from prior when anticipating Spiller's production. He will be used completely differently. The perfect example of a Bills player this year that everyone will think has improved is Nickell Robey. It is the exact same thing. He is in the perfect position to succeed. He will be blitzing left and right and be productive. Manny Lawson is another guy that fits perfectly in this system. Their improved production, much like Spiller's, won't be because they improved a ton but because they were put in position to thrive.

 

My "bold" prediction was that Robey would have 10+ sacks this year. Believe me, I'm with you.

 

And there's no question Spiller will be used differently, I think the split in fans here is whether or not CJ's up to the task.

 

I'm not certain he is, but it wouldn't surprise me. Let's put it this way, if he's still available in the 3rd round, I'll probably draft him in fantasy.

Edited June 25, 2015 by The Big Cat

[NoSaint]

 

not for a second do i deny that possibility.

 

but at this point, that's all it is.

agreed. anything we are forecasting for next season is simply an educated guess based on what we have seen of players and schemes.

 

on a similar note of schemes effect, id be curious your take on spillers production percentages being much more in line with the other guys you looked at when he was under chan, and a dramatic shift under doug (i put the numbers side by side in my post from a few minutes ago. i thought that was one of the more interesting points that sprung up in the conversation, and worth some chatter. i havent come to a conclusion but thought it worth note.

Edited June 25, 2015 by NoSaint

[BigPappy]

Since I am at work, I can't read through all the responses so I will apologize if this has been said already. Anyone who doesn't think CJ is going to "kill it" this year is crazy IMO. He has been stuck behind one of the perennial "worst offensive lines" since his arrival. Which is one of the reasons why he is considered fragile. He is a smaller RB and he can't take the beatings that he got behind our line. Going off the NO is going to be the BEST thing that happened to him. Their offensive line is 5 times better than ours. He will flourish there and he wont be taking the beatings he took here,

 

I love me my Bills but we have not had a good coaching staff since Marv retired as coach. They have not know how to use their players. Using them in the wrong schemes. Plugging them into spots they know nothing about playing, hiring assistance that don't know the difference between deep out and the hook-n- go. Not to mention their lack of using the slant. I mean come on, it's 3rd and 2. You don't run a 10 yard out with your fastest guy...you have him run the slant!!! Ryan is by far the best hire we have made since Marv left but we will have to see if it works out.

 

BigPappy