Kelly the Dog Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 Even with a top ten YPC average, he won't even be considered for any achievements post career. Tells you all you need to know, really. Tells me he's been injured and he's been wasted. He's not a workhorse. He can't pass block. He will miss some holes. He's also extraordinary.
YoloinOhio Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 Or average top ten all time 5 yards a carry for his career, a huge portion of it while playing injured with crappy lines and crappy coaching. It's very possible he could get hurt this year. He has not proven to be durable. He is very likely to have a great year with Payton and Brees. I can't wait to see him.spiller has never played with a qb who keeps the defense honest. This will help him immensely in getting into space. The HC is an offensive guru as well, and has proven to have success with similar RBs in style to CJ like Bush and Sproles. All of this bodes very well for CJ. He just needs to stay healthy. And make sure he picks up the offense quickly. I recall this being an issue for him in the past when he had to learn a new system.
KD in CA Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 No one rushes for 1000 in New Orleans - he'd be te first back since pre-Payton and they've had a lot of talented guys. And I'll definitely agree he's a little more boom or bust than most. Also agree that I think most (myself include) have a gut reaction to 4 YPC as 4 yards being gained each touch while also somehow having home run plays and those 12 yard runs mixed in. When you actually stop to think about the 4 yards every touch kind of comment it's easy to see that it's normally a terribly inaccurate characterization True, so I'm not sure how much of a superstar a guy can be in a 3-headed backfield. If he stays healthy I think he'll have stats pretty comparable to Sproles; perhaps slightly more carries and slightly fewer receptions. He is an amazingly fun player to watch when he's going well so I do hope we get to see some of that this season.
The Big Cat Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 Quinn's homework assignment: what percentage of yards do most backs get on their top 5% of carries? What's spiller done in past years? Talk about an obscure stat that's worthless without context to benchmark it to Okay. Let's do Shady. 318 carries, top 5% would be his 15.9 best runs, so we'll round up to 16. Those carries totaled 395 yards or 29.94% of his 1319 total yards. Stats here: http://goo.gl/kOlAIP Stats dropped into a spread sheet here: https://goo.gl/7aJmSJ
FireChan Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 Tells me he's been injured and he's been wasted. He's not a workhorse. He can't pass block. He will miss some holes. He's also extraordinary. Constantly injured, not a workhorse, can't do the entire job and extraordinary.
The Big Cat Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 (edited) Now Murray. 392 touches, 5% rounded up to 20 carries for 510 yards or 27.9% of his 1827 yards. Stats: http://goo.gl/zolGcl Spread sheet: https://goo.gl/cIKrfR Now Bell (these take like five minutes): 290 carries, 5% rounded up to 15 carries for 411 yards or 30.1% of his 1361 yards. Stats: http://goo.gl/cwcJrV Spread sheet: https://goo.gl/a2zk8H I'm being generous rounding these numbers up, and they're still much, much different than CJ's. Actually, let's back up. We were generically dealing with 5%, when truthfully, 40% of CJ's yards can on only 3.8% of his carries. So let's apply that number, shall we? Shady: 24.6% Murray: 22.8% Bell: 25.4% Edited June 25, 2015 by The Big Cat
YoloinOhio Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 Now Murray. 392 touches, 5% rounded up to 20 carries for 510 yards or 27.9% of his 1827 yards. Stats: http://goo.gl/zolGcl Spread sheet: https://goo.gl/cIKrfR Now Bell (these take like five minutes): 290 carries, 5% rounded up to 15 carries for 411 yards or 30.1% of his 1361 yards. Stats: http://goo.gl/cwcJrV Spread sheet: https://goo.gl/a2zk8H I'm being generous rounding these numbers up, and they're still much, much different than CJ's. Actually, let's back up. We were generically dealing with 5%, when truthfully, 40% of CJ's yards can on only 3.8% of his carries. So let's apply that number, shall we? Shady: 24.6% Murray: 23.1% Bell: 25.4% thanks for the comparisons, particularly Shady as some have noted he is the same type of RB. I think he is in some ways, but not completely.
Kelly the Dog Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 Constantly injured, not a workhorse, can't do the entire job and extraordinary. Yep. No question he's an extraordinary player. The one year he was healthy in a decent offense he was extraordinary. There are a lot of backs in the league who "can't do the entire job" and there are a lot who cannot be a workhorse. He's an amazing player, he just gets hurt too much. That's surely a problem because you cannot count on him to be healthy. I'll bet you anything he has a great season if he doesn't get hurt.
NoSaint Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 Now Murray. 392 touches, 5% rounded up to 20 carries for 510 yards or 27.9% of his 1827 yards. Stats: http://goo.gl/zolGcl Spread sheet: https://goo.gl/cIKrfR Now Bell (these take like five minutes): 290 carries, 5% rounded up to 15 carries for 411 yards or 30.1% of his 1361 yards. Stats: http://goo.gl/cwcJrV Spread sheet: https://goo.gl/a2zk8H I'm being generous rounding these numbers up, and they're still much, much different than CJ's. Actually, let's back up. We were generically dealing with 5%, when truthfully, 40% of CJ's yards can on only 3.8% of his carries. So let's apply that number, shall we? Shady: 24.6% Murray: 22.8% Bell: 25.4% any chance you could do spillers other seasons, or career? i still think 78 carries, especially given the issues last year, is a tough sample to look at as the norm from him. but i might be wrong there. i appreciate you taking the time. I didnt expect it to equal out to the rest, but had no idea how extreme it would end up being (other than a little less than it sounded, as my gut reaction).
The Big Cat Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 Yep. No question he's an extraordinary player. The one year he was healthy in a decent offense he was extraordinary. There are a lot of backs in the league who "can't do the entire job" and there are a lot who cannot be a workhorse. He's an amazing player, he just gets hurt too much. That's surely a problem because you cannot count on him to be healthy. I'll bet you anything he has a great season if he doesn't get hurt. Which back in the league would you say he's most comparable to? Let's start there.
Mr. WEO Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 Quinn's homework assignment: what percentage of yards do most backs get on their top 5% of carries? What's spiller done in past years? Talk about an obscure stat that's worthless without context to benchmark it to I posted this last year. Posted 19 December 2014 - 09:37 PMPosted 19 December 2014 - 06:05 PM 'Clemson North', on 19 Dec 2014 - 7:51 PM, said: Spiller time!!! He will break 2 runs over 25 yards. Gut feeling He only has 2 runs over 25 all year So far this year, 16% of his carries went for negative yardage. 19% were for 1 yard. 17% went for 2 yards 19% went for 3-4 yards. 8.6% went for 10 or more yards. In total, 52% of his carries were for 2 or fewer yards. Who will gameplan for this? 'mastershake', on 19 Dec 2014 - 11:21 PM, said: Someone that wants to win a football game, thats who. But cherry pic meaningless stats from an ultra conservative offensive game plan 6 game stretch if it makes you feel smart. Cherry pick?? That's his entire year's output. Don't like those numbers? How about last season? 25% of his runs were for 0 or less yards. 10% were for 1 yard. 15% were for 2 yards. So....a year ago 50% of his runs were for 2 yards or less. Sound familiar?
NoSaint Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 Which back in the league would you say he's most comparable to? Let's start there. i dont know that theres a GREAT comp player. someone like bush in his prime? there are only a handful of backs that have athleticism so special that they go that high but arent likely 300 touch guys. ill mention again that i dont think that last year is the best representation of average CJ but thats not based on digging deep in the numbers. I posted this last year. Posted 19 December 2014 - 09:37 PMPosted 19 December 2014 - 06:05 PM 'Clemson North', on 19 Dec 2014 - 7:51 PM, said: He only has 2 runs over 25 all year So far this year, 16% of his carries went for negative yardage. 19% were for 1 yard. 17% went for 2 yards 19% went for 3-4 yards. 8.6% went for 10 or more yards. In total, 52% of his carries were for 2 or fewer yards. Who will gameplan for this? 'mastershake', on 19 Dec 2014 - 11:21 PM, said: Cherry pick?? That's his entire year's output. Don't like those numbers? How about last season? 25% of his runs were for 0 or less yards. 10% were for 1 yard. 15% were for 2 yards. So....a year ago 50% of his runs were for 2 yards or less. Sound familiar? more interesting info that i appreciate - but again hard to digest without having anything to benchmark it against.
CountryCletus Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 BUT 1% of his runs were home run type rushes that made him fun to watch.... If he would just be given the ball 100 times a game (hopefully before he pukes) that would be 1 big run per game.... Simple math fellas! Hahahaha
The Big Cat Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 (edited) any chance you could do spillers other seasons, or career? i still think 78 carries, especially given the issues last year, is a tough sample to look at as the norm from him. but i might be wrong there. i appreciate you taking the time. I didnt expect it to equal out to the rest, but had no idea how extreme it would end up being (other than a little less than it sounded, as my gut reaction). 2010: 20.4% 2011: 22.2% 2012: 28.1% 2013: 37.5% (all based on 3.8% of carries, rounded up) Also, 78 isn't that abnormal: 2010: 74 2011: 107 2012: 207 2013: 202 Edited June 25, 2015 by The Big Cat
Kelly the Dog Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 (edited) Which back in the league would you say he's most comparable to? Let's start there.I don't think there is anyone like him because he's a lot better than the guys who play like him, which are Sproles and Reggie Bush. He's a unique player like Percy Harvin is a unique player or Rob Gronkowski is a unique player. I'm not comparing him to Gronkowski as a star, only in so far as no one else really plays like him. Marshawn is a unique player. Sean Payton obviously thinks he's an extraordinary player. He's going to build his offense around getting him the ball in open space, the way any person with any kind of mind would have all along. And Payton is regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the game. Because he's an extraordinary player. Edited June 25, 2015 by Kelly the Dog
San-O Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 (edited) Now Murray. 392 touches, 5% rounded up to 20 carries for 510 yards or 27.9% of his 1827 yards. Stats: http://goo.gl/zolGcl Spread sheet: https://goo.gl/cIKrfR Now Bell (these take like five minutes): 290 carries, 5% rounded up to 15 carries for 411 yards or 30.1% of his 1361 yards. Stats: http://goo.gl/cwcJrV Spread sheet: https://goo.gl/a2zk8H I'm being generous rounding these numbers up, and they're still much, much different than CJ's. Actually, let's back up. We were generically dealing with 5%, when truthfully, 40% of CJ's yards can on only 3.8% of his carries. So let's apply that number, shall we? Shady: 24.6% Murray: 22.8% Bell: 25.4% Very nice. Thank you. So, basically, C.J. can break a big one, just not very often and the remainder of carries are very low yards/carry? If one looked at his stat lines during/in games last year, it was pretty ugly sometimes. http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/13203/cj-spiller Edited June 25, 2015 by San-O
The Big Cat Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 I don't think there is anyone like him because he's a lot better than the guys who play like him, which are Sproles and Reggie Bush. He's a unique player like Percy Harvin is a unique player or Rob Gronkowski is a unique player. I'm not comparing him to Gronkowski as a star, only in so far as no one else really plays like him. Marshawn is a unique player. Sean Payton obviously thinks he's an extraordinary player. He's going to build his offense around getting him the ball in open space, the way any person with any kind of mind would have all along. And Payton is regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the game. Because he's an extraordinary player. I really resent the comparisons to Sproles. Sproles is exceptionally good at letting blocks develop then exploding through the crease: the precise mechanic in CJ's game that's holding back, tremendously.
Kirby Jackson Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 I really resent the comparisons to Sproles. Sproles is exceptionally good at letting blocks develop then exploding through the crease: the precise mechanic in CJ's game that's holding back, tremendously. Except Sproles doesn't have anywhere near the explosiveness. He is quick and strong. He doesn't outrun angles like Spiller does. Spiller will be used in a similar manner to Sproles. If you gave Payton the choice of Spiller or Sproles I'd be shocked if he preferred Sproles. Reggie Bush in 2006 may be a different story.
San-O Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 I don't think there is anyone like him because he's a lot better than the guys who play like him, which are Sproles and Reggie Bush. He's a unique player like Percy Harvin is a unique player or Rob Gronkowski is a unique player. I'm not comparing him to Gronkowski as a star, only in so far as no one else really plays like him. Marshawn is a unique player. Sean Payton obviously thinks he's an extraordinary player. He's going to build his offense around getting him the ball in open space, the way any person with any kind of mind would have all along. And Payton is regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the game. Because he's an extraordinary player. Does anyone else find it interesting or ironic that the player which Marrone possbly misued the most is going to a team where Marrone coached and was offensive coordinator?
Mr. WEO Posted June 25, 2015 Posted June 25, 2015 I don't think there is anyone like him because he's a lot better than the guys who play like him, which are Sproles and Reggie Bush. He's a unique player like Percy Harvin is a unique player or Rob Gronkowski is a unique player. I'm not comparing him to Gronkowski as a star, only in so far as no one else really plays like him. Marshawn is a unique player. Sean Payton obviously thinks he's an extraordinary player. He's going to build his offense around getting him the ball in open space, the way any person with any kind of mind would have all along. And Payton is regarded as one of the best offensive minds in the game. Because he's an extraordinary player. No offense, but no one, least of all Sean Payton, is building an offence around CJ Spiller.
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