/dev/null Posted June 20, 2015 Posted June 20, 2015 So what's gonna happen to Greece? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-20/weekend-of-fear-in-greece-as-monday-brings-salvation-or-ruin If Greece withdraws from the EU, no big deal right? But Britain on the other hand was already talking about holding a referendum in the next year or two on whether to remain in the EU. Would a Grexit sew the seeds of British withdrawl?
Azalin Posted June 20, 2015 Posted June 20, 2015 I don't know - Greece is part of the eurozone, where Britain never converted to the euro, sticking with the pound instead. I would imagine that it would help strengthen the euro if Greece went back to the drachma, but I can't pretend to be that savvy with regard to international economics. Britain's attitude is somewhat aloof with regard to its membership in the European Union compared with other member nations, so I could see them bailing for more reasons than just economic ones. Ive been traveling to Europe regularly since 2010, and when I began, one euro was worth about $1.60. Now 1 euro = .94cents, so it's weakened considerably compared with the dollar, which is saying something when you consider how badly our own 'stewards of the economy' are performing.
KD in CA Posted June 20, 2015 Posted June 20, 2015 In an interview published Saturday in Brussels-based l’Echo newspaper, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis warned that the ruling Syriza party could be replaced by neo-Nazis if Greece ends up defaulting and leaving the euro. They must be worried if they're pulling out the NAZIS!! card. Those very markets, coupled with an embrace of Europe, kick-started two decades of increased public spending on pensions and government jobs, and private investment in shipping and infrastructure. So they embraced the gatorman economic plan. Everything should be fine.
Doc Posted June 20, 2015 Posted June 20, 2015 So what's gonna happen to Greece? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-20/weekend-of-fear-in-greece-as-monday-brings-salvation-or-ruin If Greece withdraws from the EU, no big deal right? But Britain on the other hand was already talking about holding a referendum in the next year or two on whether to remain in the EU. Would a Grexit sew the seeds of British withdrawl? Don't you mean a "Brithdrawal"?
B-Man Posted June 29, 2015 Posted June 29, 2015 GREEK CRISIS IGNITES AS BANKS SHUT UNTIL THURSDAY... Fear of social unrest... Government Official: Default Tomorrow... .
truth on hold Posted June 29, 2015 Posted June 29, 2015 They're talking 40% drop in currency if greece exits. Be a great time.to visit there! That's probably what they really need as a long term fix....lower currency, attractive tourism, maybe investment, effectively impose internal austerity measures. Obviously this propping up by Euro isn't fixing anything
TakeYouToTasker Posted June 29, 2015 Posted June 29, 2015 They won't impose austerity, and they will be shut out of international markets by defaulting, which they certainly will.
meazza Posted June 29, 2015 Posted June 29, 2015 They're talking 40% drop in currency if greece exits. Be a great time.to visit there! That's probably what they really need as a long term fix....lower currency, attractive tourism, maybe investment, effectively impose internal austerity measures. Obviously this propping up by Euro isn't fixing anything Interesting. Is that why the Euro gained today? Is there any subject you're not painfully ignorant of?
truth on hold Posted June 29, 2015 Posted June 29, 2015 (edited) They won't impose austerity, and they will be shut out of international markets by defaulting, which they certainly will.A weak fx is a form of austerity as it limits spending, leaving Euro will require them and their lenders to actually resolve their problems and restructure. The euro mechnaism has been exposed as not being capable of dealing with insolvent members, just defers the inevitable, making it worse. To actually be viable in capital markets they need to default so they can restructure Interesting. Is that why the Euro gained today? Is there any subject you're not painfully ignorant of? Not the euro, the Greek currency should they exit Edited June 29, 2015 by JTSP
GG Posted June 29, 2015 Posted June 29, 2015 A weak fx is a form of austerity as it limits spending, leaving Euro will require them and their lenders to actually resolve their problems and restructure. The euro mechnaism has been exposed as not being capable of dealing with insolvent members, just defers the inevitable, making it worse. To actually be viable in capital markets they need to default so they can restructure Not the euro, the Greek currency should they exit Why would anyone invest in Greece if they were unwilling to reform their fiscal health when faced with a EU exit? Do they think they will get a better deal with other creditors? Or the flip side, why would anyone lend them a dime until they can show they can meet their obligations. If tourism was a panacea, the Caribbean nations would rule the world.
truth on hold Posted June 29, 2015 Posted June 29, 2015 Why would anyone invest in Greece if they were unwilling to reform their fiscal health when faced with a EU exit? Do they think they will get a better deal with other creditors? Or the flip side, why would anyone lend them a dime until they can show they can meet their obligations. If tourism was a panacea, the Caribbean nations would rule the world. Why would anyone lend them a dime when they can't possibly grow fast enough to satisfy their existing obligations? Irrational as that sounds thats exatclty whats been going on for years.
TakeYouToTasker Posted June 29, 2015 Posted June 29, 2015 Why would anyone invest in Greece if they were unwilling to reform their fiscal health when faced with a EU exit? Do they think they will get a better deal with other creditors? Or the flip side, why would anyone lend them a dime until they can show they can meet their obligations. If tourism was a panacea, the Caribbean nations would rule the world. Bingo.
GG Posted June 29, 2015 Posted June 29, 2015 Why would anyone lend them a dime when they can't possibly grow fast enough to satisfy their existing obligations? Irrational as that sounds thats exatclty whats been going on for years.considering they were borrowing under the EU, they had plenty of access. They were also borrowing from other countries not in the capital markets. Things will be a bit more different now. They won't have market access until they reform.
truth on hold Posted June 29, 2015 Posted June 29, 2015 considering they were borrowing under the EU, they had plenty of access. They were also borrowing from other countries not in the capital markets. Things will be a bit more different now. They won't have market access until they reform.Exactly. Keep adding debt to pay debt they can't pay....problem gets worse.
B-Man Posted June 29, 2015 Posted June 29, 2015 IT’S NOT JUST GREECE: Puerto Rico is expected to default on more than $70 billion in debt, four times what Detroit owed when it went bankrupt. A report by economists Anne Krueger, Ranjit Teja, and Andrew Wolfe, nicely summarized in this WaPo explainer, points to the sort of fiscal mismanagement you’d expect in such a bankruptcy but also to federal policies that make things especially difficult for the island. John Fund on how the latest Greek banking crisis exemplifies the EU’s persistent democratic deficit: Yep–the EU is a progressive’s dream: lots of elitist bureaucracy by “experts,” with little opportunity for republican or democratic participation by the unwashed masses. It’s a phenomenon that sounds increasingly familiar today .
DC Tom Posted June 29, 2015 Posted June 29, 2015 considering they were borrowing under the EU, they had plenty of access. They were also borrowing from other countries not in the capital markets. Things will be a bit more different now. They won't have market access until they reform. From what I've read, their debt is in Euros even if/when they switch back to the drachma. Given that the drachma will almost certainly go into an inflationary spiral...how are they going to service a debt valued in Euros as their currency falls against the Euro? Seems to me that Greece is pretty much screwed either way - they can put drastic austerity measures in place and stay in the Eurozone, or they can get kicked out of the Eurozone and have drastic austerity measures forced on them by devaluation of the drachma.
truth on hold Posted June 29, 2015 Posted June 29, 2015 From what I've read, their debt is in Euros even if/when they switch back to the drachma. Given that the drachma will almost certainly go into an inflationary spiral...how are they going to service a debt valued in Euros as their currency falls against the Euro? Seems to me that Greece is pretty much screwed either way - they can put drastic austerity measures in place and stay in the Eurozone, or they can get kicked out of the Eurozone and have drastic austerity measures forced on them by devaluation of the drachma. It's about time the lenders took the much needed write-off. A lot of this keep the patient on life support comes from lenders not wanting to take the charge.
DC Tom Posted June 29, 2015 Posted June 29, 2015 It's about time the lenders took the much needed write-off. A lot of this keep the patient on life support comes from lenders not wanting to take the charge. Will you do this board a favor and slam your fingers in a car door?
TakeYouToTasker Posted June 29, 2015 Posted June 29, 2015 It's about time the lenders took the much needed write-off. A lot of this keep the patient on life support comes from lenders not wanting to take the charge. Why should they?
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