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Secretariat versus American Pharoah - Guess who wins?


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Yeah, but Secretariat only would have won by 15 or so lengths.

 

And American Pharoah might not have beaten Sham, either. Sure, Sham finished last...but only because he went flat-out for 3/4 mile keeping pace with Secretariat, and broke down.

 

I always felt bad for Sham. Great horse, that just got B word-slapped by a horsey god.

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Races aren't run vs. a clock, they're run vs. the other horses. So because Secratariat finished with a faster time doesn't mean the race would have played out like that if they were head to head. Pharaoh didn't have to surge out, he got to set the pace and nobody challenged him early so there was no need for him to push it. Who knows if he breaks down late if he's challenged early or if he is able to put up a spectacular time but simply splicing two reels of film together doesn't really settle the discussion.

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Races aren't run vs. a clock, they're run vs. the other horses. So because Secratariat finished with a faster time doesn't mean the race would have played out like that if they were head to head. Pharaoh didn't have to surge out, he got to set the pace and nobody challenged him early so there was no need for him to push it. Who knows if he breaks down late if he's challenged early or if he is able to put up a spectacular time but simply splicing two reels of film together doesn't really settle the discussion.

 

2.65 seconds, nope Secretariat wins. Secretariat wasn't pushed at all at the end and could have ran harder if he was challenged.

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2.65 seconds, nope Secretariat wins. Secretariat wasn't pushed at all at the end and could have ran harder if he was challenged.

 

You're likely you're right that Secretariat wins, but my point was is that simply looking at a clock doesn't prove that. It's a race vs. the other horses not vs. a clock and every race plays out differently.

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You're likely you're right that Secretariat wins, but my point was is that simply looking at a clock doesn't prove that. It's a race vs. the other horses not vs. a clock and every race plays out differently.

 

 

Your general point is correct but I think these two races are the wrong example to make that point. Secretariat's race was simply the best horse race ever run (I'd argue it is the greatest performance in a single event in the history of sports). AP's time was very strong precisely because he wasn't pushed early. Materiality (who was supposed to do the pushing) was not up to the task. Is it possible that AP could have run a 109-4 in the opening 6 furlongs and continued to keep that pace? The best I can do is say it's not impossible. And the only reason I can say that is because Secretariat did it. Without the 1973 Belmont as a reference (and no race before it or since it), every racing fan would say it was simply impossible. It is far more likely that he'd falter after running 109-4 than he would having run 113-2.

 

What AP did Saturday was great. It was great for the sport and I hope it brings interest back (I also hope to see him at Saratoga this year or next). Ending a 37 year drought is MORE than what Secretariat did. AP's accomplishment should be lauded. Can we say he's not the next Secretariat? I suppose not. He could go on to even greater things. AP did something no horse has done in 37 years but there are still a lot of things he has not done. He has not gotten into a speed duel and sustained a late challenge. He may have to do that some day this fall. He may rise to that challenge. He may falter. Heck, even Secretariat's record wasn't perfect. He has proven he can sit off the pace and make a move to the lead. This is a big plus.

 

In addition to winning the Triple Crown, being horse of the year and champion 3YO (both of which AP will probably be), do you know what else Secretariat was in 1973? Champion grass horse. He had two losses after the Belmont and won four races, including a course record on Belmont's grass and winning in the Canadian International. I'll go out on a limb and guess that AP won't be the champion grass horse this year. Secretariat jumped right into the fire against older horses. Odds are that AP's next race or two will be against 3YOs and that he'll enter the Breeder's Cup as his first race against older horses or possibly his second. That's fine and he may prove to be an all time great beyond just the Triple Crown. I hope he does. But the two Belmont's are not comparable.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNHJkz5K6uk

Edited by OGTEleven
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