Flip Johnson Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 (edited) I'm specifically talking about pass receptions. Last year the Bills completed 363 passes. 50% were caught by WRs, 32% were caught by RB/FBs, and 19% were caught by TEs. I believe this year the Bills will complete fewer passes because they will throw the ball less. Let's say the Bills' quarterbacks attempt 500 passes (31.25 per game) and complete them at a 60% rate. That is 300 completed passes. Who is going to catch those passes - and who is going to be unhappy with the amount of targets they are receiving? For example let's say in 2015 we have reception numbers like: Watkins 75 Woods 60 Harvin 40 Clay 50 McCoy 50 Those are fairly conservative estimates for everyone. It would leave 25 catches total for Fred Jackson (66 last year), Hogan (41 last year), Goodwin, Dez Lewis, O'Leary, Gragg, Gray, Bryce Brown, and Felton. Obviously, there could be injuries and we don't know how the Bills plan to utilize Harvin. But I see Watkins and Woods wanting 5-6 catches a game. McCoy is used to catching the ball out of the backfield, and Clay isn't being paid $8M/year to be a decoy. You can see that there is going to be a delicate balance between playing winning football (which could be 25 passes or less on a lot of days) and keeping these playmakers happy. The simple way to say this is: in 2015 we are going to have more and better pass catchers with fewer passes thrown. How is that going to work? My personal opinion is that Jackson and Hogan's numbers will drop drastically - they were products of our extremely conservative passing game. Edited June 2, 2015 by Flip Johnson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K D Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 I'm open! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordong Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 I think what your not allowing for is longer drives and more plays, but maybe that just me being really hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manther Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 If everyone thinks we are throwing to Clay are we best to use him as a decoy? You know, like Marrone and Hackett did with Sammy last year? Kidding aside, I think your analysis is fairly accurate. But, I do believe the staff will surprise us and we will pass more than most think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buftex Posted June 2, 2015 Share Posted June 2, 2015 (edited) This has been my secret fear about the coming season...all these weapons, who is going to feel slighted? I suppose, if they win, everyone will be happy. I still don't feel like I have a real handle on what to expect, as far as Harvin goes. Maybe I just haven't seen him play enough over the years, but the way they talk about him (NFL media, other players, coaches) he is this very elite talent...but in what way? In early June, I operating under the pretense that everyone has a great season..what would that mean as far as Harvin goes? If everyone thinks we are throwing to Clay are we best to use him as a decoy? You know, like Marrone and Hackett did with Sammy last year? Kidding aside, I think your analysis is fairly accurate. But, I do believe the staff will surprise us and we will pass more than most think. To hear Rex tell it, Clay might see as much time on the field as the starting QB, or starting QB's combined... Edited June 2, 2015 by Buftex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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