Cassel's "Ceiling"

[Dibs]

I love the positive attitude but most likely, you are fooling yourself. This is like last year when folks started talking about a contract extension with Orton. After 10 years in the league, you are what you are. Cassel has had 2 seasons where he wasn't a bad starting qb, the last one 5 years ago.

 

He is what he is. If he's your backup, you are in great shape. If he's your starter you are limited. He is capable of a good start but he will follow it up with 4 ints like he did last year against the Pats.

 

Pray for one of the youg guys to step up because this will be exactly like last year with Orton.

I think the point the OP was making is that Cassel has shown that he can be very effective when in the right situation. His ceiling has been top 10 QB and pro bowl.

 

Could he reproduce his good 2 years with this Bills team? Who knows? I think that with the weapons available, good coaching/play calling, and a heavy ground and pound approach where he hopefully wouldn't be expected to in any way carry the team, that he would have the best chance possible to hit that top 10 stat/pro bowl type ceiling.

 

That being said, I really hope that either EJ or Tyrod step up to a level higher than that.

[John from Riverside]

John, there is a reason guys like Orton and Cassel get passed around the league. You talk about Orton going into a shell. Orton simply played like Orton has his entire career. For the majority of his career, Cassel has performed like a journeyman qb.

 

if Manuel and Taylor suck, I guess you have no choice. Personally, I like the unknown more than the proven journeyman. The idea of beating the Pats with their former backup kills a bit of my busy for the season. Belichick will be able to gameplan for Cassel in his sleep.

 

As I said with Orton, if Cassel is the guy, I'd love to be proven wrong and he has a great season. But good NFL starters aren't entering camp for their 4th different team.

Good NFL starters are not available period.......

 

What you can hope for from Cassel is two years of "game mgt" play one this year and one next year while the 1st round pick gets brought up to speed......

 

I hope someone steps up.....I was really hoping to hear some glowing reviews of EJ on the 1st media day of OTA's......I didnt.....

[ko12010]

Good NFL starters are not available period.......

 

What you can hope for from Cassel is two years of "game mgt" play one this year and one next year while the 1st round pick gets brought up to speed......

 

I hope someone steps up.....I was really hoping to hear some glowing reviews of EJ on the 1st media day of OTA's......I didnt.....

Don't listen to the media. Just wait for what you can see with your own eyes.

[BarleyNY]

I won't say that Cassel can't have a magical season or even just get hot at the right time, but I know where my money would be if I was a betting man. Nothing to do now but hope for the best.

[stinky finger]

 

Too tough to heat the floor level.

 

Thanks for nothing.

Merely an opinion.

 

Thanks for the feedback.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

There seems to be a narrative out there that Cassel is an uninspiring, "game manager" who might be able to lead the team to 10-6 if he can manage to keep from tripping over his own shoelaces.

 

In Cassel's good years (08, '10) his QB rating was top 10, and his combined TD/INT ration was 48/18. He made a Pro Bowl. The '08 team scored 410 points and the '10 team scored 366 points.

 

His '08 team had Sammy Morris as a lead RB, with a strong WR combo (Welker in his prime, still explosive Randy Moss).

 

His '10 team had RB depth (Thomas Jones/Jamaal Charles) and mediocre receivers (Bowe/Moeaki).

 

This is the best offensive personnel Cassel has ever played with. It is certainly the best defense. He is healthy and is not playing for Leslie Frazier, Todd Haley, or Romeo Crennel.

 

There is a ton of similarity in Cassel's stat lines to Alex Smith's recent years in SF/KC.

 

So while I understand that the YPA might not be high, Cassel is not the same as Orton, or Fitzpatrick, or other retread QBs. Smith is a better comp and the Bills would have won 12-13 games last year with Alex Smith as their QB.

 

I don't see why Cassel can't put up a 95 rating, a 3-1 TD/INT ratio, while keeping his attempts at around 30 per game. If that is "game manager" it will still be a Pro Bowl stat line, and the team will win 12 games at minimum.

 

Flip, on the plus side, the up-side "good years" are exactly why the Bills traded for Cassel. He can, at his best, be a reasonable quality NFL QB.

On the minus side, Cassel's last really good year was 5 years ago. He's 33. Some QB throw well into their 30s, others fall off. In particular mobility falls off, ability to recover from injury falls off. And I think it's right to question the overall quality of a QB who has 2 good seasons out of 6; people rightly critique apologists who do that kind of thing for Fitz, for example.

 

I'm not sure I'd call Bowe a mediocre receiver. He managed 3 1000+ yd seasons with mediocre QB throwing to him and it went downhill from there (Thigpen? Huard? seriously?)

 

So I wish Cassel and all the guys the best, and I agree he's not the same as Fitz - different plusses and minuses - but I have to say at the bottom of the cold, hard facts he is who his overall record says he is.

Edited May 29, 2015 by Hopeful

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

This guy isn't Warner or Gannon. But yeah, maybe he can be Brad Johnson

[Dibs]

This guy isn't Warner or Gannon. But yeah, maybe he can be Brad Johnson

Gannon wasn't Gannon till he was 34 years old. Prior to that he was a journeyman with a worse showing than Cassel has to this point.

Note: I am in no way suggesting that I believe Cassel will magically improve(as Gannon did).

[Fadingpain]

What about the other umpteen seasons where he is compared to doggy doo ?

Yep, in 2015, Cassel's ceiling is pretty low.

 

I am starting to think Rex is going to go hard for Tyrod though, so this may be moot.

[Max997]

I actually like Cassel probably more then most but what he did in 2008 and 2010 is irrelevant in 2015

 

My hope is that Cassel can accurately hit receivers down the field and in stride which is something neither EJ or Orton could do last year. If Roman can get the same out of Cassel he did out of Alex Smith the offense will have a chance to be really good.

 

I am really looking forward to seeing this offense.

Edited May 29, 2015 by Max997

[jumbalaya]

If Cassel is QB and he's throwing 30 passes a game, we are always playing from behind.

[Flip Johnson]

There are maybe 8-10 QBs in the league that could make ANY team a playoff contender.

 

There are probably 10 starting QBs in the league who couldn't make the playoffs with any roster.

 

I don't put Cassel in either category. I see his skill set as being highly context-specific. He could never be the difference maker on a mediocre to poor roster. But history shows that if you put him in the right situation he can win a bunch of games.

[Dibs]

There are maybe 8-10 QBs in the league that could make ANY team a playoff contender.

 

There are probably 10 starting QBs in the league who couldn't make the playoffs with any roster.

 

I don't put Cassel in either category. I see his skill set as being highly context-specific. He could never be the difference maker on a mediocre to poor roster. But history shows that if you put him in the right situation he can win a bunch of games.

I think that is a very good way of putting it. Nicely done.

[Vinaccia]

Look nobody is more critical on the Bills QB situation than me, but this forum has taken it to a whole different level. Look I know as Bills fans we have had a rough ride for the last 20 years, but honestly sometimes it's better to accept the fact that these coaches who are experienced professionals working in the game and dealing with football players for more than 20 years, have a better idea than you about who should be the starting QB.

 

I'll be honest and say I was hoping the Bills were going to grab some young QB that wasn't on anybody's radar. I want that QB like everyone else that will be the face of the franchise for the next 10 years.

 

But I've accepted that these coaches (Rex Ryan and Greg Roman) know more about football, judging players, and making football roster decisions better than me and everybody on this forum ever has or ever will. If they decided by September that Cassel is the QB, then so be it.

 

What most people fail to realize is beyond acceptable athletic talent and arm strength (which Cassel has), the QB position is cerebral. It takes intense studying. An offensive coordinator and head coach know these playbooks in and out and can judge whether a player has mastered the playbook and is executing the right steps, reads, and mastery of the playbook.

 

Although I want a young QB like other poor quality NFL teams in the league now have (like a Tannehill or Carr for the Buffalo Bills) it doesn't seem like that's going to be the case.

 

Greg Roman wanted Cassel and from what some former Bills alumni told me, Roman thinks he can win with him. Cassel is a hell of a lot better than Orton and has a desire to play the game and be the starter (which Orton didn't have and stated again just recently in an interview). If that heartless Orton who had no appreciation for this franchise and its fan base could get a winning record with a total buffoon for a coach and less offensive talent, then Cassel can do it as well and win more.

 

Stop worrying guys, we have the edge over the Patriots right now and have a coach and finally an owner that is ALL in on winning now.

[metzelaars_lives]

Look nobody is more critical on the Bills QB situation than me, but this forum has taken it to a whole different level. Look I know as Bills fans we have had a rough ride for the last 20 years, but honestly sometimes it's better to accept the fact that these coaches who are experienced professionals working in the game and dealing with football players for more than 20 years, have a better idea than you about who should be the starting QB.

 

I'll be honest and say I was hoping the Bills were going to grab some young QB that wasn't on anybody's radar. I want that QB like everyone else that will be the face of the franchise for the next 10 years.

 

But I've accepted that these coaches (Rex Ryan and Greg Roman) know more about football, judging players, and making football roster decisions better than me and everybody on this forum ever has or ever will. If they decided by September that Cassel is the QB, then so be it.

 

What most people fail to realize is beyond acceptable athletic talent and arm strength (which Cassel has), the QB position is cerebral. It takes intense studying. An offensive coordinator and head coach know these playbooks in and out and can judge whether a player has mastered the playbook and is executing the right steps, reads, and mastery of the playbook.

 

Although I want a young QB like other poor quality NFL teams in the league now have (like a Tannehill or Carr for the Buffalo Bills) it doesn't seem like that's going to be the case.

 

Greg Roman wanted Cassel and from what some former Bills alumni told me, Roman thinks he can win with him. Cassel is a hell of a lot better than Orton and has a desire to play the game and be the starter (which Orton didn't have and stated again just recently in an interview). If that heartless Orton who had no appreciation for this franchise and its fan base could get a winning record with a total buffoon for a coach and less offensive talent, then Cassel can do it as well and win more.

 

Stop worrying guys, we have the edge over the Patriots right now and have a coach and finally an owner that is ALL in on winning now.

Great post. Agree with pretty much every word you said.

[Thurman#1]

There seems to be a narrative out there that Cassel is an uninspiring, "game manager" who might be able to lead the team to 10-6 if he can manage to keep from tripping over his own shoelaces.

 

In Cassel's good years (08, '10) his QB rating was top 10, and his combined TD/INT ration was 48/18. He made a Pro Bowl. The '08 team scored 410 points and the '10 team scored 366 points.

 

His '08 team had Sammy Morris as a lead RB, with a strong WR combo (Welker in his prime, still explosive Randy Moss).

 

His '10 team had RB depth (Thomas Jones/Jamaal Charles) and mediocre receivers (Bowe/Moeaki).

 

This is the best offensive personnel Cassel has ever played with. It is certainly the best defense. He is healthy and is not playing for Leslie Frazier, Todd Haley, or Romeo Crennel.

 

There is a ton of similarity in Cassel's stat lines to Alex Smith's recent years in SF/KC.

 

So while I understand that the YPA might not be high, Cassel is not the same as Orton, or Fitzpatrick, or other retread QBs. Smith is a better comp and the Bills would have won 12-13 games last year with Alex Smith as their QB.

 

I don't see why Cassel can't put up a 95 rating, a 3-1 TD/INT ratio, while keeping his attempts at around 30 per game. If that is "game manager" it will still be a Pro Bowl stat line, and the team will win 12 games at minimum.

 

 

 

 

 

 

First, I'm sure you understand that throwing out all but a guy's two best years out of ten career years is likely to leave that guy looking pretty good, whoever he is.

 

Take Jeff Garcia. In his best two years he was 5th and 4th in QB Rating, and he had a 41:12 TD: INT ratio. He also made a Pro Bowl in one of those two years (and three more besides). But while you could convince yourself if you try hard enough that Jeff Garcia could take you places, it wasn't all that likely. Playoffs, yes. Deep, no.

 

As for being like Alex Smith, not so much. In Smith's last four years, he's never been below 89.1 in QB Rating. In his last four years, Cassel's never been above 81.6. In the last four years, Cassel's put together 30 TDs and 34 INTs, while Smith has 71 TDs and 23 INTs. It's not a mistake Alex Smith was brought in to replace Cassel and has performed quite a bit better.

 

You really have to squint, turn to the side, drink a fifth and cover up a lot of the years of his career to like Cassel as much as Smith or to think he's much more than a game manager. I like him. I guess he'll win the competition and that he might be good enough to - with major help from the rest of the team - get us to the playoffs. But I don't see this team going deep with Matt Cassel at QB.

 

Hope I'm wrong.

Edited May 29, 2015 by Thurman#1

[1billsfan]

There seems to be a narrative out there that Cassel is an uninspiring, "game manager" who might be able to lead the team to 10-6 if he can manage to keep from tripping over his own shoelaces.

 

In Cassel's good years (08, '10) his QB rating was top 10, and his combined TD/INT ration was 48/18. He made a Pro Bowl. The '08 team scored 410 points and the '10 team scored 366 points.

 

His '08 team had Sammy Morris as a lead RB, with a strong WR combo (Welker in his prime, still explosive Randy Moss).

 

His '10 team had RB depth (Thomas Jones/Jamaal Charles) and mediocre receivers (Bowe/Moeaki).

 

This is the best offensive personnel Cassel has ever played with. It is certainly the best defense. He is healthy and is not playing for Leslie Frazier, Todd Haley, or Romeo Crennel.

 

There is a ton of similarity in Cassel's stat lines to Alex Smith's recent years in SF/KC.

 

So while I understand that the YPA might not be high, Cassel is not the same as Orton, or Fitzpatrick, or other retread QBs. Smith is a better comp and the Bills would have won 12-13 games last year with Alex Smith as their QB.

 

I don't see why Cassel can't put up a 95 rating, a 3-1 TD/INT ratio, while keeping his attempts at around 30 per game. If that is "game manager" it will still be a Pro Bowl stat line, and the team will win 12 games at minimum.

 

 

 

 

 

Fitzpatrick has had 81 TDs over the last 4 years and Cassel has had 30.

 

Fitzpatrick's QB rating is over 10 points higher than Cassel's during the last four years.

 

Yet we are to believe that Cassel is somehow BETTER than Fitzpatrick?

 

IMO Cassel is a QB who may look good in practice, but will fold under real game pressure because he has lost his intestinal fortitude for the starting QB role. I think instead of comparing Cassel to Alex Smith, the better comparison may be Matt Shaub. As for thinking that he's better than Fitzpatrick, that's obviously not true. Fitzpatrick is still a warrior with the starting QB mentality. Cassel can talk a good game and sound confident all he wants, but IMO he has lost that mental edge when you look at his stats. He strikes me as a guy who made his way in the NFL, is very satisfied, very comfortable, and is now more interested in avoiding injury to protect himself after football than he is in holding the ball that extra second and taking that hit in the pocket to make a big play. I will be very bummed out if Cassel wins the job. Better to find out what Manuel or Taylor have in terms of becoming the Bills franchise QB. Both QBs are at least as good as Cassel would be in real games.

[Dorkington]

The 2008 Pats*

They went 11-5, which is usually good enough for the playoffs. That team was stacked, it was his first year starting, and he put up average numbers, good enough to be 11-5. You're fooling yourself if you think any QB on this team will have a better season than that. All we need is competent play, which he has shown, and maybe EJ or Tyrod can as well, and we'll improve on last year's 9-7 record.

 

Edit: Corrected

Edited May 29, 2015 by Dorkington

[stinky finger]

They went 10-6, which is usually good enough for the playoffs. That team was stacked, it was his first year starting, and he put up average numbers, good enough to be 10-6. You're fooling yourself if you think any QB on this team will have a better season than that. All we need is competent play, which he has shown, and maybe EJ or Tyrod can as well, and we'll improve on last year's 9-7 record.

Pats* went 11-5.

 

Fitzpatrick has had 81 TDs over the last 4 years and Cassel has had 30.

 

Fitzpatrick's QB rating is over 10 points higher than Cassel's during the last four years.

 

Yet we are to believe that Cassel is somehow BETTER than Fitzpatrick?

 

IMO Cassel is a QB who may look good in practice, but will fold under real game pressure because he has lost his intestinal fortitude for the starting QB role. I think instead of comparing Cassel to Alex Smith, the better comparison may be Matt Shaub. As for thinking that he's better than Fitzpatrick, that's obviously not true. Fitzpatrick is still a warrior with the starting QB mentality. Cassel can talk a good game and sound confident all he wants, but IMO he has lost that mental edge when you look at his stats. He strikes me as a guy who made his way in the NFL, is very satisfied, very comfortable, and is now more interested in avoiding injury to protect himself after football than he is in holding the ball that extra second and taking that hit in the pocket to make a big play. I will be very bummed out if Cassel wins the job. Better to find out what Manuel or Taylor have in terms of becoming the Bills franchise QB. Both QBs are at least as good as Cassel would be in real games.

This^

 

These comparison's make me laugh. Alex Smith or Cassel? Not. Even. Close.

 

As for Fitzpatrick or Cassel? Gimme Fitz.

 

Schaub at his best vs Cassel at his best? Schaub, all day. Unless you're comparing Cassel to Schaub presently.

[Dorkington]

Pats* went 11-5.

This^

 

These comparison's make me laugh. Alex Smith or Cassel? Not. Even. Close.

 

As for Fitzpatrick or Cassel? Gimme Fitz.

 

Schaub at his best vs Cassel at his best? Schaub, all day. Unless you're comparing Cassel to Schaub presently.

Thanks! That even furthers my point