Extra Point rule has changed

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

If they want to make it more interesting make whatever unit was on the field at the time of the score go for the extra point

[Hot Buffalo Wings]

 

I take it he didn't do the math

 

90% of 1 point = .9 probable points

47.8% of 2 points = .956 probable points

Whoa Whoa....That's backwards thinking.

 

Kicking = 0 pts. 10% of the time.

 

Going for 2 = 0 pts. 52.2% of the time.

 

Maybe I missed your point, but that's a very simple way of looking at it.

 

 

Edit: Also keep in mind they are just testing this out for this season.

Edited May 20, 2015 by Hot Buffalo Wings

[Buftex]

Here's what Pat Kirwan had to say:

 

From https://twitter.com/PatKirwanCBS/status/600785169239449600

 

the new xpt-33yd kick is a90% success rate and a 2 pt play is 47.8% success rate...Teams will keep kicking..I do like the ability to return

 

last yr 1,293TDs only 100 were followed by a 2 point attempt-I suspect this year 2pt plays will still be about 7% of the extra pt plays

That is the only part of the new rules that I like... the defense can actually score points on an errant play! That could make for some excitement.

 

I realize that the NFL has never been a very sentimental league (compared to MLB or the NHL) when it comes to its' past, but I guess I just don't like when they mess with things so much that it changes the perspective on stats from era to era.

 

Alex Carrington ("megahand" as somebody called him here) was on John Murphy last week... they were talking about his penchant for blocking kicks on PAT and FG's. He said he developed this "talent" as a kid trying to make an NFL roster, when he realized that guys just don't go "all out" on kicking plays..he figured if he did, he was bound to make an impact.

Edited May 20, 2015 by Buftex

[Big Turk]

I don't expect very much change in 2 pt attempts nor PAT misses. 33 yard field goals are still pretty automatic for kickers today.

 

Now quite as automatic, but close...

 

Don't have exact numbers because they only group them in 10 yard ranges, but last year field goals of 30-39 yards were made at a 90% rate(272 made/302 attempted)...

 

Whats funny is that extra points might have been missed at the highest rate seen in a long time, with 8 being no good...however with so many being tried the conversion rate still was over 99% more than likely...

 

I think analytically, it makes it interesting...whats the expected points per attempt for each now that the extra point has been moved back 13 yards? If its in favor of the 2 point conversion I think you see more coaches going for them...

 

 

EDIT:

 

found some analytics as well as a more detailed breakdown:

 

"NFL kickers made 34 of 35 field goals (97.1%) when the line of scrimmage was the 15-yard line and they made 84 of 88 (95.5%) when the line of scrimmage was between the 14- and 16-yard lines in 2014.

That makes the expected points for 1-pointers (0.97 points per attempt) and 2-points (0.95 points) a little closer, but it is still in favor of the 1-point attempt."

 

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-extra-point-rule-change-2015-3#ixzz3agZikHzF

Edited May 20, 2015 by matter2003

[GG]

Whoa Whoa....That's backwards thinking.

 

Kicking = 0 pts. 10% of the time.

 

Going for 2 = 0 pts. 52.2% of the time.

 

Maybe I missed your point, but that's a very simple way of looking at it.

 

 

Edit: Also keep in mind they are just testing this out for this season.

 

Thanks Jauron, but the object of the game is to score more points, not to minimize the chance of not scoring points.

[Hot Buffalo Wings]

 

Thanks Jauron, but the object of the game is to score more points, not to minimize the chance of not scoring points.

Thanks Copernicus, I'd probably go for the play that has less chance of giving me 0 pts. (I bet most NFL teams will also)

 

At least I would think I'd like to "minimize the chance of not scoring points."...I believe they are both the object of the game.

Edited May 20, 2015 by Hot Buffalo Wings

[NoSaint]

Thanks Copernicus, I'd probably go for the play that has less chance of giving me 0 pts.

 

At least I would think I'd like to "minimize the chance of not scoring points."...I believe they are both the object of the game.

situationally, that may be valid, but overall you should go for it pretty much 100% of the time with the new numbers - unless its late game and you are up 8 already.

 

though i think more coaches think like you than they reasonably should.

[Hot Buffalo Wings]

situationally, that may be valid, but overall you should go for it pretty much 100% of the time with the new numbers - unless its late game and you are up 8 already.

 

though i think more coaches think like you than they reasonably should.

I agree. I do see both sides of it.

 

The 47.8% 2 pt. success rate being for all 32 teams could mean that some teams have a much lower success rate and some have a much higher success rate. It's very dependent on each given situation.

Edited May 20, 2015 by Hot Buffalo Wings

[GG]

Thanks Copernicus, I'd probably go for the play that has less chance of giving me 0 pts. (I bet most NFL teams will also)

 

At least I would think I'd like to "minimize the chance of not scoring points."...I believe they are both the object of the game.

 

That's why head coaches who punt inside opponents' 40 yard lines are destined for the dustbin of offensive lines in Jacksonville.

[Hot Buffalo Wings]

 

That's why head coaches who punt inside opponents' 40 yard lines are destined for the dustbin of offensive lines in Jacksonville.

I understand you think going for the safer 1 pt. PAT is too conservative. But its not punt from your opponents 40 yard line conservative.

[Mr. WEO]

 

Thanks Jauron, but the object of the game is to score more points, not to minimize the chance of not scoring points.

 

 

Perhaps, but this new rule changes nothing in that regard.

[DrDawkinstein]

Sorry, Chip Kelly...

 

@smartfootball: Side effect of new PAT rule is I guess it effectively ends the formations where teams line up threatening to go for 2 and motion back to PAT

 

First thing I thought of as well. That, and no more lining up for a kick but then faking it for 2. I mean, I guess you could, but that's a much bigger risk now.

[GG]

 

 

Perhaps, but this new rule changes nothing in that regard.

 

The odds for the XP got worse, so I don't know how you can say nothing changed.

[DrDawkinstein]

If they want to make it more interesting make whatever unit was on the field at the time of the score go for the extra point

 

I like this idea! Or how about: the player that scores (the one holding the football in the end zone) has to attempt the kick!

[I'm Spartacus]

Just because you can change a rule, doesn't mean should.

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

It occurs to me, I'm not sure if I've ever seen a fake PAT... was that against the rules?

I was thinking the same thing. I guess you still could go for a fake, but it'd be harder. I've never seen a fake, but I've seen a botched snap/hold so the team went for two.

 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

@DeanBlandino: The extra point rule for 2015 just changed. Snap for kick from the 15-yard line, 2-pt try stays at 2-yard line and defense can return.

 

@AdamSchefter: NFL now will have 33-yard extra points, inviting teams to try more two-point conversions.

 

this is dumb.

 

Just get rid of the extra point and make it 7 unless you want 2 then it goes back to six and defense can score as well.

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

 

this is dumb.

 

Just get rid of the extra point and make it 7 unless you want 2 then it goes back to six and defense can score as well.

Why do people explain it this way? Wouldn't it basically be your choosing to take a free point or go for two?

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Why do people explain it this way? Wouldn't it basically be your choosing to take a free point or go for two?

 

yes

[bbb]

That's what the rule was going to be...........And, then everybody wanted to make it more "exciting."

 

This is going to be a circus.