Strength of Schedule - Barnwell Analysis

[Bills1218]

As usual, Barnwell posts an interesting read from a stats geek perspective on each team's strength of schedule for 2015. There are some holes in his analysis (looking at last season's performance doesn't reflect offseason changes, Vegas over/unders aren't incredibly accurate), but this strikes me as an innovative way of looking at schedule difficulty (especially with the usual crew of beat writers already latching on to our road trips and predicting 9 wins or fewer).

 

Based on last season's results, Barnwell pins us at only 19th or 20th toughest schedule in the league...

 

 

Historically, as is the case in other sports, point differential has been a better indicator than win-loss record when trying to predict future win-loss record. I’ve written at length about this very topic. Here, we’ll use it to give a better indication of each team’s level of performance from last season and then use that to project each team’s strength of schedule in 2015. The table below includes each team’s strength of schedule as calculated by win-loss record and that same figure calculated using Pythagorean Expectation:

Team SoS, Win % Rank SoS, Pythagorean Rank Steelers 0.578 1 0.548 1 Bengals 0.563 2 0.548 2 49ers 0.561 3 0.539 3 Cardinals 0.557 5 0.537 4 Raiders 0.545 8 0.526 5 Broncos 0.541 10 0.519 6 Browns 0.543 9 0.518 7 Rams 0.553 6 0.516 8 Chiefs 0.545 7 0.516 9 Vikings 0.539 12 0.514 10 Seahawks 0.559 4 0.513 11 Bears 0.531 13 0.512 12 Lions 0.527 15 0.510 13 Dolphins 0.492 17 0.508 14 Chargers 0.518 16 0.504 15 Ravens 0.539 11 0.502 16 Jets 0.488 18 0.502 17 Washington 0.479 20 0.501 18 Packers 0.529 14 0.499 19 Bills 0.486 19 0.498 20 Cowboys 0.467 24 0.496 21 Jaguars 0.463 25 0.492 22 Patriots 0.477 22 0.490 23 Giants 0.479 20 0.487 24 Eagles 0.475 23 0.483 25 Panthers 0.434 27 0.470 26 Titans 0.436 26 0.460 27 Colts 0.416 31 0.449 28 Buccaneers 0.426 29 0.449 29 Saints 0.430 28 0.447 30 Texans 0.418 30 0.444 31 Falcons 0.410 32 0.437 32

 

And the current Vegas numbers are even better - putting us at the 8th-easiest schedule in the league...

 

 

Using the over/under lines from Monday as our baseline, we can produce another estimated strength of schedule measure:

Team SoS, Vegas Rank Bengals 0.523 1 Cardinals 0.523 2 49ers 0.521 3 Steelers 0.520 4 Raiders 0.512 5 Bears 0.511 6 Lions 0.511 7 Vikings 0.509 8 Seahawks 0.509 9 Broncos 0.508 10 Chiefs 0.508 11 Rams 0.506 12 Browns 0.506 13 Washington 0.505 14 Packers 0.505 15 Dolphins 0.504 16 Cowboys 0.503 17 Jaguars 0.502 18 Jets 0.501 19 Ravens 0.501 20 Chargers 0.500 21 Panthers 0.498 22 Giants 0.497 23 Eagles 0.496 24 Bills 0.494 25 Patriots 0.494 26 Buccaneers 0.492 27 Titans 0.488 28 Falcons 0.487 29 Saints 0.485 30 Colts 0.485 31 Texans 0.481 32

 

This is the easiest I can remember a schedule being for the Bills in recent memory. Of course, all that's irrelevant since we're clearly going 19-0...

[Dorkington]

And yet we're going to finish 5-11, man, Rex destroyed this team.

[C.Biscuit97]

Barnwell is ok, but he's like that geek who could never play football so wanted to find a way to fit in. Strength schedule before a season is pretty meaningless.

And yet we're going to finish 5-11, man, Rex destroyed this team.

The good news is we are saved from watching a 5-11 team play this year.

[Nanker]

And yet we're going to finish 5-11, man, Rex destroyed this team.

I can hear chants of, "Bring Back Ralph!" reverberating through the winter air on Sundays.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Barnwell is ok, but he's like that geek who could never play football so wanted to find a way to fit in. Strength schedule before a season is pretty meaningless.

 

 

Yep. SoS really has no bearing on success. Lots of people buy into it because the media jacks it up. He makes a good point however. We've known who were playing for months. Only the NFL could turn something we already know into a three hour program.

 

I believe that it's the coaching staffs responsibility, regardless of the schedule, to have their team prepared each week. Time, place, day, sure they have influence but what it really comes down to is preparations. If you are truly the superior team and have prepared appropriately, all other factors are irrelevant

[QB Bills]

Barnwell is ok, but he's like that geek who could never play football so wanted to find a way to fit in. Strength schedule before a season is pretty meaningless.

 

The good news is we are saved from watching a 5-11 team play this year.

 

You're right. I'd much rather listen to the wise words of Emmitt smith.

[Chuck Wagon]

I used to be a big fan of Barnwell's but he lost me this past year with his smarmy take on the Watkins trade and the Bills in general. He's little more than a Simmons mouthpiece anymore, just another Grantland parrot extolling the virtues of the Patriots.

[Chuck Wagon]

Yep. SoS really has no bearing on success. Lots of people buy into it because the media jacks it up. He makes a good point however. We've known who were playing for months. Only the NFL could turn something we already know into a three hour program.

 

I believe that it's the coaching staffs responsibility, regardless of the schedule, to have their team prepared each week. Time, place, day, sure they have influence but what it really comes down to is preparations. If you are truly the superior team and have prepared appropriately, all other factors are irrelevant

 

 

I'll generally agree with the premise in the sense that last year's record isn't the best judge of SoS. However, I do think SoS is a huge factor in team success. Would the Browns have won 7 games if they played the AFC East and NFC West or NFC North last year instead of the AFC & NFC South (they were 4-4 against those garbage divisions)? Would the Colts have won 11 games last year if they didn't get fat off the Titans and Jags (they were 2-4 against playoff teams)?

 

It's the NFL, you have to bring it every week and for the most part anyone can beat anyone else, but it's tough to argue there wasn't an advantage in getting the NFC South vs one of the other cross conference matchups.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

 

I'll generally agree with the premise in the sense that last year's record isn't the best judge of SoS. However, I do think SoS is a huge factor in team success. Would the Browns have won 7 games if they played the AFC East and NFC West or NFC North last year instead of the AFC & NFC South (they were 4-4 against those garbage divisions)? Would the Colts have won 11 games last year if they didn't get fat off the Titans and Jags (they were 2-4 against playoff teams)?

 

It's the NFL, you have to bring it every week and for the most part anyone can beat anyone else, but it's tough to argue there wasn't an advantage in getting the NFC South vs one of the other cross conference matchups.

 

 

I do agree that SoS is a factor in team success. I think the problem is that last year's results don't predict the strength of a team this year. That's why teams which are media darlings because they were "on the cusp" last year and "improved" in the off season often tank, and teams which are widely predicted to suck (49ers Harbaugh's 1st year) take off.

 

The NFC south was weak last year but bear in mind that the NFC West went from being a pansy division where the division winner and runner up had losing records in 2010 to "clash of the titans" 2 years later.

Edited April 23, 2015 by Hopeful

[Wayne Cubed]

 

 

I'll generally agree with the premise in the sense that last year's record isn't the best judge of SoS. However, I do think SoS is a huge factor in team success. Would the Browns have won 7 games if they played the AFC East and NFC West or NFC North last year instead of the AFC & NFC South (they were 4-4 against those garbage divisions)? Would the Colts have won 11 games last year if they didn't get fat off the Titans and Jags (they were 2-4 against playoff teams)?

 

It's the NFL, you have to bring it every week and for the most part anyone can beat anyone else, but it's tough to argue there wasn't an advantage in getting the NFC South vs one of the other cross conference matchups.

 

Who know's what games they would have won and what games they wouldn't have won if they played different divisions. There are way to many variables to determine that. Maybe they go to Manziel a lot earlier and he has a break out year without the distractions.

 

Which is why SoS, which goes by last years win/loss record, isn't the best way to judge the success of a team, even after the season has been played.

[K D]

And yet we're going to finish 5-11, man, Rex destroyed this team.

is 5-11 good enough to make the playoffs this year? because if we are 5-11 then i'd hate to see the records for the 30 other less talented teams