thebandit27 Posted April 20, 2015 Posted April 20, 2015 He was also bottom 3 in attempts. How does that affect the rate?
FireChan Posted April 20, 2015 Posted April 20, 2015 How does that affect the rate? 3rd smallest sample size. EJ's next pass could be a pick, and his rate changes drastically compared to a QB who played all of 2014.
thebandit27 Posted April 20, 2015 Posted April 20, 2015 3rd smallest sample size. EJ's next pass could be a pick, and his rate changes drastically compared to a QB who played all of 2014. And his next pass could be a TD, which doesn't change it at all. The whole purpose of showing the statistic as a rate is to project the probability of his next pass being an INT. Assuming it will be, based on him having one of the lowest percentages, would be a folly that belies the data presented. Now, if you want to claim that the relatively small sample size isn't enough to lend credence to the rate, fine...in fact I may even agree with it. Using it against him, however, would be a total non-sequitur.
BuffaloHokie13 Posted April 20, 2015 Posted April 20, 2015 (edited) And his next pass could be a TD, which doesn't change it at all. The whole purpose of showing the statistic as a rate is to project the probability of his next pass being an INT. Assuming it will be, based on him having one of the lowest percentages, would be a folly that belies the data presented. Now, if you want to claim that the relatively small sample size isn't enough to lend credence to the rate, fine...in fact I may even agree with it. Using it against him, however, would be a total non-sequitur. Right, but with statistics like that, sample size is key to portraying an accurate picture. Not saying EJ would be better or worse than what he got if he played an entire season, but at his sample size I don't feel the stat has much merit personally. Edited April 20, 2015 by BuffaloHokie13
IronyAbounds Posted April 20, 2015 Posted April 20, 2015 Really, all Rodak is saying is that if the Bills determine by early August that EJ isn't going to fit the bill, pun intended, if they want to get anything of value for him that is the best time to cut him loose. He isn't saying trade him now (in fact, he says just the opposite). The biggest problem with the articles, imo, is not the headline issue, but rather whether it really will be possible to determine anything regarding EJ's value before a game is played. I do love how so many people hate on Rodak because he isn't a cheerleader. If, as someone suggested, Ryan and Roman are building a system on the QB being no more than a jockey on a horse, then it may not matter who is the QB, and if that is the case, perhaps they should trade whichever QB on the roster has the highest trade value. It is a bit ironic that the Bills appear to be going to a run-centric offense just a year after so much was traded away for what was billed (again, pun intended) as a must have WR. But that is a topic for another thread.
FireChan Posted April 20, 2015 Posted April 20, 2015 And his next pass could be a TD, which doesn't change it at all. The whole purpose of showing the statistic as a rate is to project the probability of his next pass being an INT. Assuming it will be, based on him having one of the lowest percentages, would be a folly that belies the data presented. Now, if you want to claim that the relatively small sample size isn't enough to lend credence to the rate, fine...in fact I may even agree with it. Using it against him, however, would be a total non-sequitur. That was my claim. I just used the INT example to demonstrate how a small sample size could quickly be skewed in a different direction.
negativo Posted April 20, 2015 Posted April 20, 2015 Article seemed like a pretty rational analysis to me. Wasn't biased or bashing EJ,
1billsfan Posted April 20, 2015 Posted April 20, 2015 Article seemed like a pretty rational analysis to me. Wasn't biased or bashing EJ, It's biased in the sense that he knows nothing about the Buffalo Bills because he's a Pats fan and he couldn't care less about the Bills. No one said it's EJ bashing by the way. Just an incredibly dumb article. I'm sorry, there's absolutely nothing rational about an NFL franchise considering trading their 25 year old former first round QB with only 14 games started for only a fourth round pick. Successful NFL teams simply don’t operate this way. The Pats fan/Bills beat writer who wrote this garbage was probably too busy licking his Tom Brady poster to learn that Buffalo Bills GM Doug Whaley…you know, THE ACTUAL GM WHO DRAFTED EJ MANUEL IN THE FIRST ROUND…is STILL the Bills GM. It’s amazing Bills fans are buying into what this guy is selling.
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted April 20, 2015 Posted April 20, 2015 Article seemed like a pretty rational analysis to me. Wasn't biased or bashing EJ, in a sense saying the Bills should trade him is um er bashing EJ ---------------- my 2 cents to some above comments IF a pick 6 INT means a QB is horrible, well then you can start lining up all the best out there, and/or you can start lining up those with multiple 4 INT games. One specifically that I recall two 4 INT games is Tom Brady
BuffaloHokie13 Posted April 20, 2015 Posted April 20, 2015 in a sense saying the Bills should trade him is um er bashing EJ ---------------- my 2 cents to some above comments IF a pick 6 INT means a QB is horrible, well then you can start lining up all the best out there, and/or you can start lining up those with multiple 4 INT games. One specifically that I recall two 4 INT games is Tom Brady I doesn't explicitly say they should trade him so much as it says they would be wise to gauge the market if he does not perform well, or gets out performed this offseason
RuntheDamnBall Posted April 20, 2015 Posted April 20, 2015 I doesn't explicitly say they should trade him so much as it says they would be wise to gauge the market if he does not perform well, or gets out performed this offseason What would the market possibly be if he doesn't perform well? EJ should at least have a floor of NFL backup for his career, so it would be foolish to trade him when he is more valuable to the Bills than to anyone else. It is not like Matt Cassel has been the picture of health to begin with. The article is dumb because it makes the strange comparison to Tebow, because Rodak wants all the clicks. It's also dumb because trades require willing partners, and the Bills would be dumping an asset for nothing. I know it's hard to believe but even as a backup EJ is an asset. He has been no great shakes, but people who believe that he isn't at least a top 50 QB in this league haven't watched a lot of football.
Jauronimo Posted April 20, 2015 Posted April 20, 2015 (edited) What would the market possibly be if he doesn't perform well? EJ should at least have a floor of NFL backup for his career, so it would be foolish to trade him when he is more valuable to the Bills than to anyone else. It is not like Matt Cassel has been the picture of health to begin with. The article is dumb because it makes the strange comparison to Tebow, because Rodak wants all the clicks. It's also dumb because trades require willing partners, and the Bills would be dumping an asset for nothing. I know it's hard to believe but even as a backup EJ is an asset. He has been no great shakes, but people who believe that he isn't at least a top 50 QB in this league haven't watched a lot of football. The article is beyond dumb because it fails to address why we should trade him? What would the Bills be trying to accomplish by trading EJ? QB is the biggest need. EJ's contract isn't holding us back. There is no QB controversy in Buffalo so its not like he and Cassel and anyone else we might bring in cannot co-exist. The market for EJ is soft so the type of consideration we'd receive in any trade is modest. So why would we trade him? That article was pointless. Edited April 20, 2015 by Jauronimo
Maury Ballstein Posted April 21, 2015 Posted April 21, 2015 That article was pointless. Par for the course at ESPN these days. Bunch of nonsense.
RuntheDamnBall Posted April 21, 2015 Posted April 21, 2015 The article is beyond dumb because it fails to address why we should trade him? What would the Bills be trying to accomplish by trading EJ? QB is the biggest need. EJ's contract isn't holding us back. There is no QB controversy in Buffalo so its not like he and Cassel and anyone else we might bring in cannot co-exist. The market for EJ is soft so the type of consideration we'd receive in any trade is modest. So why would we trade him? That article was pointless. nail meet head.
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted April 21, 2015 Posted April 21, 2015 Would you trade EJ for Johnny football? manziel could get moved soon If I was Cleveland, yes!
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted April 21, 2015 Posted April 21, 2015 ...that Buffalo Bills GM Doug Whaleyyou know, THE ACTUAL GM WHO DRAFTED EJ MANUEL IN THE FIRST ROUND being wrong in all caps.... That's just embarrassing.
1billsfan Posted April 21, 2015 Posted April 21, 2015 being wrong in all caps.... That's just embarrassing. You got me, technically I'm wrong. Nix was Bills GM during the Manuel draft. However, everyone knows that Whaley was GM 1B to Nix's GM 1A. My point still stands that EJ Manuel was Doug Whaley's pick, not Nix's and there's no way Whaley is not giving Manuel a third year. The chances of him being traded or cut are zero.
GunnerBill Posted April 21, 2015 Posted April 21, 2015 You got me, technically I'm wrong. Nix was Bills GM during the Manuel draft. However, everyone knows that Whaley was GM 1B to Nix's GM 1A. My point still stands that EJ Manuel was Doug Whaley's pick, not Nix's and there's no way Whaley is not giving Manuel a third year. The chances of him being traded or cut are zero. I don't think we will ever know who in the room banged the table for EJ Manuel or if indeed Nix, Whaley and the coaches were all in agreement. It does appear that Whaley was on board because he has been gneerally pretty supportive since. As I said in the other thread I'd love to know how Whaley's top assistants (Monos and Fisher) had him graded as they were still in other organisations at the time. I'm sure we will never find out but it would be fascinating.
1billsfan Posted April 21, 2015 Posted April 21, 2015 I don't think we will ever know who in the room banged the table for EJ Manuel or if indeed Nix, Whaley and the coaches were all in agreement. It does appear that Whaley was on board because he has been gneerally pretty supportive since. As I said in the other thread I'd love to know how Whaley's top assistants (Monos and Fisher) had him graded as they were still in other organisations at the time. I'm sure we will never find out but it would be fascinating. I think the consensus was that EJ Manuel was a 2nd to 3rd round pick that was over drafted due to a huge need at that position. It happens from time to time. It was a gamble that has a year left on the expiration date before the Bills will move in a different direction. Now having said that, if Manuel looks bad for most of 2015 and/or only plays in the last few games and he looks great in those last few games then he's coming back. That expiration date goes all the way to the December games because this is the NFL and if show that you can prove it on the field a few games in a row, it almost won't matter what he did those first 12 games. If EJ can't get it done this year with what they've surrounded him with, then it's a pretty solid bet the doubters will never be proven wrong about him.
Dorkington Posted April 21, 2015 Posted April 21, 2015 (edited) Here's the 2013 rate, since that's a bigger body of work. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/adjusted-interceptions-2013 (tied for 20th) Edited April 21, 2015 by Dorkington
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