[closed]The Great "EJ was shackled by the coach" Fallacy

[FireChan]

Reading many, many posts on how EJ is "gonna use his legs more," and "EJ was coached up not to run in 2014," I decided to do a little digging. Not to exonerate Marrone, but to just see if these claims were accurate.

 

On the surface, they appear to be.

2013 - 5.3 RAPG

2014 - 4 RAPG (The Jets game was not included, due to EJ handing it off 3 times to close out the game.)

 

But let's dig a little deeper. Besides the Houston game, EJ in 2014 would've average 5 RAPG. Houston appears to be one outlier game where he rushed 1 time, probably because of JJ Watt chasing him down. Looking at 2013, he also had an outlier game of only 1 rush, against Cleveland. So, it's not unlike EJ 2013, or 2014 version, to only have one rush in a game.

 

Throwing out both low outliers.

 

2013 - 5.8 RAPG

2014 - 5 RAPG

 

Significant? You be the judge.

Edited April 15, 2015 by FireChan

[Lurker]

Funny, I could have sworn he had the same coach both years.

 

Thanks for pointing that out...

[FireChan]

Funny, I could have sworn he had the same coach both years.

 

Thanks for pointing that out...

The claim was that he was shackled in 14. First line in the OP. Thanks for playing. Edited April 15, 2015 by FireChan

[K D]

EJ has never had success running the ball. he doesn't know what to do when he gets outside of the pocket. this is one of my biggest disappointments with him. Kapernick and Wilson are successful doing it because they are smart about it. they are looking to pass first but if there is an easy 10-15 yards they are going to take it and get out of bounds or slide. EJ just starts running like a chicken with his head chopped off when there is pressure and then doesn't know how to get to safety (cleveland game). and designed runs are just asking for trouble when the player doesn't know how to protect himself. he has to have a better feel for the game if he's going to run, otherwise we don't want him running. better to throw the ball away and live to play another down.

[JÂy RÛßeÒ]

Funny, I could have sworn he had the same coach both years.

 

Thanks for pointing that out...

During the preseason, at least publically, Marrone admitted they coached him to be more careful - to take the ball OB or to dive - in order to not hurt himself last year.

[Lurker]

The claim was that he was shackled in 14. First line in the OP. Thanks for playing.

So the comparison to 2013 means exactly, what? 0.8 fewer rushes per game...1.3 fewer.

 

In the grand scheme of things, BFD. He was coached the same way both years...the only difference was "Don't get hurt"...

Edited April 15, 2015 by Lurker

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

The relevance of the past two seasons with Marrone will be determined in the next 1-2 seasons without Marrone. On the other hand, to your point, if Marrone shackled him, I'm not certain stats alone would point to him being more or less a shackler in either year. Ohbyeah, and f marrone.

[FireChan]

So the comparison to 2013 means exactly, what? 0.8 fewer rushes per game...1.3 fewer.

 

In the grand scheme of things, BFD. He was coached the same way both years...the only difference was "Don't get hurt"...

There have been claims otherwise. Edited April 15, 2015 by FireChan

[eSJayDee]

You talk about "ouliners", but he only played 4 games in '14. Statistically, they'll ALL ouliners!

[Kelly the Dog]

The coaches told him not to run. Hackett and Marrone both said something to that affect in the off season preparing for last year.

 

Not to mention that he played full games in 2014. In 2013 he played 2-3 games where he was knocked out of them, so the limited stats you show are skewed.

 

Not to mention that in 2013 they would run the read option and EJ would run on designed plays. In 2014 he handed off almost every time and his runs were often when he scrambled on pass plays.

 

Not to mention without knowing what happened, those flimsy stats can be very misleading. Like, for example, in the Miami game last year, EJ ran 4 times. Once was a scramble. Once he ran OB to stop the clock in a two minute offense. Once he kneeled on 3rd down to set up a FG late in the game. The fourth he kneeled down on the last play of the game up by 19 or so points. So the 4 carries were really 1 or 2.

Edited April 15, 2015 by Kelly the Dog

[BillnutinHouston]

During the preseason, at least publically, Marrone admitted they coached him to be more careful - to take the ball OB or to dive - in order to not hurt himself last year.

This.

 

* end of thread *

[John from Riverside]

Reading many, many posts on how EJ is "gonna use his legs more," and "EJ was coached up not to run in 2014," I decided to do a little digging. Not to exonerate Marrone, but to just see if these claims were accurate.

 

On the surface, they appear to be.

2013 - 5.3 RAPG

2014 - 4 RAPG (The Jets game was not included, due to EJ handing it off 3 times to close out the game.)

 

But let's dig a little deeper. Besides the Houston game, EJ in 2014 would've average 5 RAPG. Houston appears to be one outlier game where he rushed 1 time, probably because of JJ Watt chasing him down. Looking at 2013, he also had an outlier game of only 1 rush, against Cleveland. So, it's not unlike EJ 2013, or 2014 version, to only have one rush in a game.

 

Throwing out both low outliers.

 

2013 - 5.8 RAPG

2014 - 5 RAPG

 

Significant? You be the judge.

I would say let the EJ bashing begin......but that wouldnt be correct

[LB3]

Fail

[Prickly Pete]

EJ has never had success running the ball. he doesn't know what to do when he gets outside of the pocket. this is one of my biggest disappointments with him. Kapernick and Wilson are successful doing it because they are smart about it. they are looking to pass first but if there is an easy 10-15 yards they are going to take it and get out of bounds or slide. EJ just starts running like a chicken with his head chopped off when there is pressure and then doesn't know how to get to safety (cleveland game). and designed runs are just asking for trouble when the player doesn't know how to protect himself. he has to have a better feel for the game if he's going to run, otherwise we don't want him running. better to throw the ball away and live to play another down.

 

I realize this was in college, but he definitely has some running skills. I don't think he is at Kaep or Wilson level, and I would much rather he concentrated on his pocket passing, but he can be elusive. More experience, and better coaching should improve his play under pressure, at least a bit. It's mostly about having the confidence to be decisive.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYRCkpnnlIs

Edited April 15, 2015 by HoF Watkins

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

you sure do love trolling. Shall we crown you King?

 

 

now go ahead and tell me that I don't have to reply in your thread.

[Heitz]

To quote Jerry Hughes "The way [the Marrone staff] handled their business, I guess that's the way they handle their business"

 

Exactly Jerry, exactly...

[K D]

 

I realize this was in college, but he definitely has some running skills. I don't think he is at Kaep or Wilson level, and I would much rather he concentrated on his pocket passing, but he can be elusive. More experience, and better coaching should improve his play under pressure, at least a bit. It's mostly about having the confidence to be decisive.

most of those are designed runs where he was taking some big hits on some of them. those don't translate to the NFL game. i too was excited when i saw him in college but if you look at the end of these runs and compare with what he has done in the NFL then you will see that he doesn't know how to protect himself or the ball. he doesn't know when defenders are closing in on him and when or how to get to safety. i don't think it's something you can teach. it's a feel for the game that not everyone has

[ricojes]

To quote Jerry Hughes "The way [the Marrone staff] handled their business, I guess that's the way they handle their business"

 

Exactly Jerry, exactly...

Thurman definitely didn't speak to highly of that regime either. The only way to compare EJ's stats would be after a whole season this year, which obviously may not happen. Otherwise, with the same coach during his NFL career, it's hard to disprove the "Shackled Fallacy"...

Edited April 15, 2015 by ricojes

[pimp 2]

During the preseason, at least publically, Marrone admitted they coached him to be more careful - to take the ball OB or to dive - in order to not hurt himself last year.

Thank you for pointing that out plus Hackett even touched on the fact that EJ was advised NO to try "to take it to the house" regarding running with the ball and the importance of him staying on the field.

 

Regardless, time will tell...if EJ in fact does re-invent himself the team & the fan base will benefit!

 

What's with the bashing of the guy? He's been a model teammate & reflection of the organization...I am pulling for the kid! Go Bills!!!

[Beerball]

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Starting a thread with "Reading many, many posts on how EJ is..." probably means that you don't have to start a thread on the same topic.