Coach Tuesday Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 (edited) This is mostly for Dave McBride and the handful of other posters who, like me, enjoy Football Outsiders content (also, sorry, but you'll need ESPN Insider to view this). Football Outsiders SackSEER projections uses a mathematical formula primarily based upon combine measurables to predict passrushing success at the NFL level. They've had some misses, but overall it's a pretty good indicator (I'll never forget how they predicted Jerry Hughes to be the top passrusher in his draft class, then openly wondered about whether they needed to change their formula after he struggled for a few years, and have since been vindicated). Anyways, here are the projections: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2015/insider/story/_/id/12599980/projecting-top-pass-rushing-prospects-nfl-draft For those who can't view it, they project Vic Beasley as the top passrusher in this draft class, they predict Donte Fowler and Shane Ray to flop, and list Davis Tull as their top passrusher sleeper. Edited April 8, 2015 by Coach Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I think Vic Beasely is Jerry Hughes 2.0. Beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 (edited) Awesome stuff - thanks. Wish I could read the full thing. As I recall, their methodology seemed pretty strong. Check out what they say about Khalil Mack last year. Mack, of course, had a sensational rookie season (even though the sack numbers weren't huge). http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/sackseer-2014 Mack had 13 stuffs last season to go with his 4 sacks. As you'll see, FO also was high on Anthony Barr, who had a great rookie season, and thought that Dee Ford was a potential bust (he had just 1.5 sacks for the Chiefs this past season). Edited April 8, 2015 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Awesome stuff - thanks. Wish I could read the full thing. As I recall, their methodology seemed pretty strong. Check out what they say about Khalil Mack last year. Mack, of course, had a sensational rookie season (even though the sack numbers weren't huge). http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/sackseer-2014 Mack had 13 stuffs last season to go with his 4 sacks. As you'll see, FO also was high on Anthony Barr, who had a great rookie season, and thought that Dee Ford was a potential bust (he had just 1.5 sacks for the Chiefs this past season). Spot on projection for Michael Sam, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 Spot on projection for Michael Sam, too. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 8, 2015 Share Posted April 8, 2015 I like SackSEER as an analytical tool. I think they rely too much on the 40 and the 3-cone, and not enough on the bench press and the 10-yard split, but overall it's a solid compendium of metrics. This year, I happen to totally agree on Fowler, as I think he's got bust written all over him. Ditto for Beasley; he's production and athleticism combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted April 16, 2015 Share Posted April 16, 2015 Full article now available on FO's website: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/sackseer-2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big C Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Awesome stuff - thanks. Wish I could read the full thing. As I recall, their methodology seemed pretty strong. Check out what they say about Khalil Mack last year. Mack, of course, had a sensational rookie season (even though the sack numbers weren't huge). http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/sackseer-2014 Mack had 13 stuffs last season to go with his 4 sacks. As you'll see, FO also was high on Anthony Barr, who had a great rookie season, and thought that Dee Ford was a potential bust (he had just 1.5 sacks for the Chiefs this past season). Wasn't particularly high on Ford, but too be fair, he had to play along Houston and Hali. I didn't watch many Chiefs games, though. How far back does this go? I'd be curious to see their projections for the past however many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bouds Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 SackSEER predicted that Maybin would be tops in his class and would accumulate over 40 sacks faster than anyone in his class. It's since been tweaked but hey, it's good for a laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 SackSEER predicted that Maybin would be tops in his class and would accumulate over 40 sacks faster than anyone in his class. It's since been tweaked but hey, it's good for a laugh. You mean there's not a program that infallibly predicts career stats for an end yet?!? Who would've guessed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted April 19, 2015 Author Share Posted April 19, 2015 SackSEER predicted that Maybin would be tops in his class and would accumulate over 40 sacks faster than anyone in his class. It's since been tweaked but hey, it's good for a laugh. Your post was "good for a laugh" and not much else. By the way the model was more than "tweaked" - it was re-designed pretty significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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