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Posted

Say the Bills average 66 offensive plays a game - how many would be running plays and how many would be passing plays - then dole out the carries and the targets .

 

for example I'll say an even split between run and pass 33 each

 

Run carries - McCoy 21, Jackson 7, Dixon 2, QBs 1.5, Brown/Harvin/Felton 1.5

 

Pass targets- Watkins 10, Harvin 6, Woods 6, Clay 5, McCoy 2, Hogan 2, everybody else 2

 

should probably subtract at least 2 targets from the passing game to account for sacks but since our OL is revamped I won't

 

 

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Posted

You give too few pass targets to Fred Jackson. If we have EJ throwing checkdowns all day, then Fred will get a lot of targets like he did last year.

so allocate away, if Fred gets more who gets less

Posted

Rex says 50 running plays.... So...

McCoy 25, Fred 13, Boobie 5, QB, 3, Harvin 3, Felton 1

 

Sprinkle in 34 pass plays....

Watkins, 10, Harvin 6, Clay 6, Woods, 6, McCoy 3, rest 3

 

This is super realistic! Hahaha

For real though, once you start trying to break it down, it shows how hard it is to get everyone the touches you want in the receiving game... I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple big games by each Watkins, Harvin, Woods and Clay. It's a great problem to have... Unlike the QB problem....

Posted

Rex says 50 running plays.... So...

McCoy 25, Fred 13, Boobie 5, QB, 3, Harvin 3, Felton 1

 

Sprinkle in 34 pass plays....

Watkins, 10, Harvin 6, Clay 6, Woods, 6, McCoy 3, rest 3

 

This is super realistic! Hahaha

For real though, once you start trying to break it down, it shows how hard it is to get everyone the touches you want in the receiving game... I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple big games by each Watkins, Harvin, Woods and Clay. It's a great problem to have... Unlike the QB problem....

This is what I was thinking of -is there going to be enough touches to go around to keep everybody happy- btw Bills ave around 64 offensive plays last year rank 15th 66 offensive plays would have ranked 9th last year.

Posted

Say the Bills average 66 offensive plays a game - how many would be running plays and how many would be passing plays - then dole out the carries and the targets .

 

for example I'll say an even split between run and pass 33 each

 

Run carries - McCoy 21, Jackson 7, Dixon 2, QBs 1.5, Brown/Harvin/Felton 1.5

 

Pass targets- Watkins 10, Harvin 6, Woods 6, Clay 5, McCoy 2, Hogan 2, everybody else 2

 

should probably subtract at least 2 targets from the passing game to account for sacks but since our OL is revamped I won't

 

 

66 attempts per game is a fast-paced, pass-based offense. The SB year, Roman's Ground and Pound had 58 attempts/game.

Even a mediocre scrambler such as Cassel averages about 2.7 run attempts per game career. In 2013, EJ averaged 4.6. Rex said "I'd like to see him use his legs more" - recall when the pocket breaks down and the QB runs for his life, that counts as a rushing attempt.

 

I'm going to say 58 run+pass attempts per game (62 offensive plays but 4 of them are punts).

53% run/pass so 31 rushing attempts. McCoy 20, 2nd back (Jackson/Dixon/Brown - only 1 per game though) 6, QB 3, Harvin 2

47% pass/run so 27 passing attempts. Watkins 8, Clay 6, Woods 5, McCoy 3, Harvin 2, TE #2 2, RB #2 1

 

The breakdown is based on the year the '49ers went to the SB.

The # touches and targets for McCoy are based on 2013 as is # targets for Clay. The # targets for Watkins assumes a 100 reception season with 75% reception rate.

The # rushing attempts for QB assumes a mobile but not notable guy behind an OK line.

Posted

If it's a zone read option play who do I count for the touch?

if the QB runs for positive yards and then pitches it then he is credited with the carry and the pitch man gets the rushing yards after receiving the ball but not the carry. If the QB sees the end coming for him and pitches the ball right away behind the line of scrimmage then its a rushing attempt for the RB
Posted

if the QB runs for positive yards and then pitches it then he is credited with the carry and the pitch man gets the rushing yards after receiving the ball but not the carry. If the QB sees the end coming for him and pitches the ball right away behind the line of scrimmage then its a rushing attempt for the RB

I get that, but considering it's March still I'm not sure whether he pitched the ball yet. I'll just add them in separately

Posted

Don't forget that Clay and Percy can run out of the backfield. Shady and Fred are going to be passing targets as well. These are all versatile playmakers. It's going to be hard to keep them all happy, especially if we are not winning.

Posted (edited)

Pass to the open man, run the ball with McCoy, Harvin, Jackson, Clay. Shouldn't allocate touches since every game should be different.

Edited by Beef Jerky
Posted

RUN McCoy 24, Jackson 4, Dixon 3, Brown 1, QB 2, Clay & Gray 1, WR .5

 

Pass - Targets: Watkins 7, Hogan 2, Woods 4, Harvin 3, Clay 5, Jackson 4, Dixon 2, McCoy 4, Gray 2, Goodwin 1

 

We will run the ball 35-40 times a game and complete 20-24 passes.

Posted

RUN McCoy 24, Jackson 4, Dixon 3, Brown 1, QB 2, Clay & Gray 1, WR .5

 

Pass - Targets: Watkins 7, Hogan 2, Woods 4, Harvin 3, Clay 5, Jackson 4, Dixon 2, McCoy 4, Gray 2, Goodwin 1

 

We will run the ball 35-40 times a game and complete 20-24 passes.

If you add incomplete passes isn't thst a lot of plays?

Posted

If you add incomplete passes isn't thst a lot of plays?

35.5 runs a game.

34 passes @ 62% comp% = 21 passes

21+35.5 = 56.5 plays a game

Posted

RUN McCoy 24, Jackson 4, Dixon 3, Brown 1, QB 2, Clay & Gray 1, WR .5

 

Pass - Targets: Watkins 7, Hogan 2, Woods 4, Harvin 3, Clay 5, Jackson 4, Dixon 2, McCoy 4, Gray 2, Goodwin 1

 

We will run the ball 35-40 times a game and complete 20-24 passes.

 

35-40 rushes per game?? That's 560-640 attempts per season. No team had more than 551 last year (Houston)--only 4 teams cracked 500.

 

640 per year?--those numbers haven't been seen in 30 years. Won't happen

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