YoloinOhio Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 (edited) Hmmmm Ennis not out there in 3rd Edited March 27, 2015 by YoloinOhio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted March 27, 2015 Author Share Posted March 27, 2015 (edited) Magic number has dropped from 7 to 5 with that OT loss! Edit: According to Sports Club Stats, tonight's loss also increased our chances to 95%, up from 88%. Edited March 27, 2015 by QCity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 While not mathematically eliminated, their odds of finishing last are so low it's not worth mentioning. And yet Edmonton is only one point ahead of Arizona. Says a lot about the Coyotes chances as well, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 My head is spinning trying to think in reverse. What would it have been if they lost in reg tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted March 27, 2015 Author Share Posted March 27, 2015 And yet Edmonton is only one point ahead of Arizona. Says a lot about the Coyotes chances as well, doesn't it? Well, after tonight's game, yes. But if things went differently tonight and somehow won in regulation, we would have had to sweat the next meetup in Arizona. Now, it's not really that big of a deal. I think Sports Club Stats 95% chance is spot-on. It's going to take a shocking turn of events for us to blow the tank now. Basically, the magic number is now representing how much longer we have to wait until we can all put this behind us, and start rooting 100% for the Sabres again. My head is spinning trying to think in reverse. What would it have been if they lost in reg tonight? Would have been a 7 pt spread in the standings, magic number would have still been 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Well, after tonight's game, yes. But if things went differently tonight and somehow won in regulation, we would have had to sweat the next meetup in Arizona. Now, it's not really that big of a deal. I think Sports Club Stats 95% chance is spot-on. It's going to take a shocking turn of events for us to blow the tank now. Basically, the magic number is now representing how much longer we have to wait until we can all put this behind us, and start rooting 100% for the Sabres again. Would have been a 7 pt spread in the standings, magic number would have still been 5. Thanx! Gr8... So getting that one extra point in a 3 point game wasn't hurting. I guess we are keeping it honest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I've been following McEichel.com on twitter. So, I thought this was the magic number?: McEichel.com @McEicheldotCom 3h3 hours ago With another point gained by the #Coyotes and a point lost by the #Sabres, Buffalo's magic number is now 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledInIllinois Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I've been following McEichel.com on twitter. So, I thought this was the magic number?: McEichel.com @McEicheldotCom 3h3 hours ago With another point gained by the #Coyotes and a point lost by the #Sabres, Buffalo's magic number is now 11. That "5" is games lost in regulation. 11 would be right. Thats points. 2 pts. a game. That's like 5.5 games. Can't lose 1/2 a game, unless you count getting 1pt. in OT/SO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I just looked at the standings, and I think it's 11. If the Coyotes don't win another game, and the Sabres "lost out" on only 7 points, that means they would end up with 11 more points, blowing past the Coyotes who are only 5 ahead of us. If we lost out on 11 points, that would let us only get 7 points out of the 18 available left, and the Coyotes could lose every game, and it would be tie, and we'd have the tie breaker. But, i did see others on twitter saying 7. Where is that number coming from? Wait, I keep saying 7, and now I see the number above is 5. That makes even less sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 While not mathematically eliminated, their odds of finishing last are so low it's not worth mentioning. I thought they were tied with Arizona? Let's go Arizona! It would be nice to hit tank magic number. Then we can go back to rooting for sabres! AMEN to that !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I just looked at the standings, and I think it's 11. If the Coyotes don't win another game, and the Sabres "lost out" on only 7 points, that means they would end up with 11 more points, blowing past the Coyotes who are only 5 ahead of us. If we lost out on 11 points, that would let us only get 7 points out of the 18 available left, and the Coyotes could lose every game, and it would be tie, and we'd have the tie breaker. But, i did see others on twitter saying 7. Where is that number coming from? Wait, I keep saying 7, and now I see the number above is 5. That makes even less sense to me. The magic number can be stated in two ways: 5 -- as in regulation losses by the Sabres to clinch 11 -- as in points not earned by the Sabres to clinch Both are accurate. Personally I prefer the points reference, since it takes into account non-regulation results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Oh, so the 5 was not points, but regulation losses? I definitely think points is the way to go. I think when you have real magic numbers for division championship, etc, you go by points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 (edited) Jeremy White is saying it's 10 points lost, not 11...because the Sabres own the tiebreaker. And an OT/SO loss is only one point lost, not two. Edited March 27, 2015 by eball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted March 27, 2015 Author Share Posted March 27, 2015 I've been following McEichel.com on twitter. So, I thought this was the magic number?: McEichel.com @McEicheldotCom 3h3 hours ago With another point gained by the #Coyotes and a point lost by the #Sabres, Buffalo's magic number is now 11. 11? That kid sounds like a drunk. I stand by my math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plenzmd1 Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 (edited) Jeremy White is saying it's 10 points lost, not 11...because the Sabres own the tiebreaker. And an OT/SO loss is only one point lost, not two. Can't wait to listen to them later this morning, I really enjoy that show. Edited March 27, 2015 by plenzmd1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Jeremy White is saying it's 10 points lost, not 11...because the Sabres own the tiebreaker. And an OT/SO loss is only one point lost, not two. Realistically it is 10, but technically it is 11. It is mathematically possible for us to catch them in the tiebreaker and finish tied. The only way that happens is if we win most of our games without shootouts and Arizona loses most of their games in OT. So it requires both teams to take a good portion of the remaining points, which is why it is such a longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ricojes Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 And yet Edmonton is only one point ahead of Arizona. Says a lot about the Coyotes chances as well, doesn't it? Look out for Toronto if you're Edmonton, they are in a full sprint tank mode. i can see them finishing 3rd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted March 28, 2015 Author Share Posted March 28, 2015 I've really tried to keep this as simple as possible, but you guys are making this more complicated than it should be. To quote the original post: (i.e. 5 losses in regulation guarantees the Sabres McEichel) Typically magic numbers are based on wins (but in this case we are using losses) and they represent the number of outcomes (not points) to reach a certain goal . You can use points, but bringing them into the mix adds an extra layer of confusion that is somewhat unnecessary. We are rooting for the Sabres to lose. As of today, we need to lose 5 more games. That's it. Some other factoids: When the magic number gets down to 1, it may be possible to clinch last place with an OT loss. If that is the case, I will update the thread to say so. It is not mandatory for us to lose 5 games, we can go on a winning streak and still clinch last as long as ARI, EDM and TOR go on similar winning streaks. The magic number may go down even after a Sabres win, providing the other teams around us win. The Buffalo Bills magic number to win the AFC East is currently 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bbb Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 So, the Bills need 32 points to clinch the division? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted March 28, 2015 Author Share Posted March 28, 2015 So, the Bills need 32 points to clinch the division? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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