Would you, right now, trade EJ for Tannehill? Chapter 2

[JESSEFEFFER]

Here's an example of QBR's woes, and, shockingly, it's pro-EJ.

 

Tim Tebow vs. NYJ in 2011.

9 of 20, for 104 yard. 45%, 5.20 YPA, 0 TD's 0 INT's. 53.7 QBR.

 

EJ Manuel vs. ATL in 2013

 

18 of 32, 210 yards, 56.3% 6.56 YPA, 1 TD 0 INT's. 50.3 QBR.

 

And make no mistake, EJ should've gotten "clutch factor" points. I don't agree with a lot of the excuses made for him, but he won that game.

 

And we get this. This is the barometer for QB success?

 

Good points and I wonder this in addition, would EJ's rating have been better if SJ and Chandler hadn't fumbled at the end and the Bills won? If so, it would seem be less objective. But I'll give it this. The SD game was a tough game for EJ with the wind and pass protection problems with which to deal. I think his tQBR was sub 10 but passer rating was ~85. I think the former was more reflective of what went on and not the latter.

 

Did Tebow do anything in the run game in the above mentioned?

[Section242]

Why trade him when he's going to be cut two days I to free agency?

 

Blaine Gabbert got traded if the Bills were to draft a QB I think it's fair to say either Taylor or E.J. are gone. E.J. would bring a 6th or a 7th.

[FireChan]

 

Here's an example of QBR's woes, and, shockingly, it's pro-EJ.

 

Tim Tebow vs. NYJ in 2011.

9 of 20, for 104 yard. 45%, 5.20 YPA, 0 TD's 0 INT's. 53.7 QBR.

 

EJ Manuel vs. ATL in 2013

 

18 of 32, 210 yards, 56.3% 6.56 YPA, 1 TD 0 INT's. 50.3 QBR.

 

And make no mistake, EJ should've gotten "clutch factor" points. I don't agree with a lot of the excuses made for him, but he won that game.

 

And we get this. This is the barometer for QB success?

Good points and I wonder this in addition, would EJ's rating have been better if SJ and Chandler hadn't fumbled at the end and the Bills won? If so, it would seem be less objective. But I'll give it this. The SD game was a tough game for EJ with the wind and pass protection problems with which to deal. I think his tQBR was sub 10 but passer rating was ~85. I think the former was more reflective of what went on and not the latter.

 

Did Tebow do anything in the run game in the above mentioned?

I pulled your post out of my quoted one, FYI.

 

I have every reason to believe that if Chandler/SJ13 doesn't fumble, and we hit the game winning FG, EJ's QBR would've risen 15 points. That's what QBR likes to rate, 4thQ comebacks and GW drives. In its thought process, that's a great idea. Clutch QB play down the stretch is a major difference between guys like Peyton and Brady.

 

I know the counter argument (not that you'd make it, just an example). It's that "you can't guarantee that Carpenter hits that FG" or some other thing like that. Bills offense in their red zone with one second left on the clock and a 28 yard FG. Can't guarantee he hits it. That's true. But, for a stat that's main goal is "dividing credit among teammates" (that's a direct quote from ESPN), why the hell should EJ's QBR drop if Carpenter shanked the kick? What does he have to do with that, he's not even on the field! It makes no sense. But drop it would. The stat is fine in general cases, but it is not and will never be the end all be all. It, just like passer rating, needs the context of the rest of the stats.

 

To your second question, yes. Timmy had 8 rushes for 68 yards and a TD. That's what is even funnier. That's affects ESPN's stat of how well the QB plays? Why? The QB's job has never been to run. Yet, if he can't complete a pass, but rushes for 50 yards, he comes out alright with ESPN's QBR. Even more nonsensical.

Also, the funniest example is Tim Tebow's 2 passes completed for a QBR of 56.6. No joke. 2 for 8, and that was his QBR. Unless he rushed for 300 yards, that is not an "above average" performance. Now you may say, "Hey FC, is passer rating was 100+, it's not like that did any better," and that's true. The difference is that tQBR was supposed to not fall into the same traps passer rating did. That was the whole point of the stat, to be better than passer rating. And it can't even do that.

 

That's why I call it the Tebow stat. Because the only thing it does with any real success is make Tebow look like a great QB.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

I'm not sure you're winning anything. I don't even know what argument you're attempting to make. You're invoking QBR- Tannehill's QBR (not that I think QBR is the be-all-end-all stat myself) has been 50, 46 and 59. EJ Manuel's has been 42 and 20- albeit in limited opportunities- albeit, in his second season, as a result of his own poor play.

metz, You need to stop using this as an excuse. The more it's used the more it is apparent that you having problems understanding what the posters are relating.

With me I can understand as my Autism / Aspbergers brain misfires leave my posts mucked when I rush things.

 

Let it go my friend you will feel better for it.

Hell hath frozen over

 

I have every reason to believe that if Chandler/SJ13 doesn't fumble, and we hit the game winning FG, EJ's QBR would've risen 15 points.

EJ gets credit and not blame.

Edited March 19, 2015 by BillsFan-4-Ever

[dave mcbride]

I pulled your post out of my quoted one, FYI.

 

I have every reason to believe that if Chandler/SJ13 doesn't fumble, and we hit the game winning FG, EJ's QBR would've risen 15 points. That's what QBR likes to rate, 4thQ comebacks and GW drives. In its thought process, that's a great idea. Clutch QB play down the stretch is a major difference between guys like Peyton and Brady.

 

I know the counter argument (not that you'd make it, just an example). It's that "you can't guarantee that Carpenter hits that FG" or some other thing like that. Bills offense in their red zone with one second left on the clock and a 28 yard FG. Can't guarantee he hits it. That's true. But, for a stat that's main goal is "dividing credit among teammates" (that's a direct quote from ESPN), why the hell should EJ's QBR drop if Carpenter shanked the kick? What does he have to do with that, he's not even on the field! It makes no sense. But drop it would. The stat is fine in general cases, but it is not and will never be the end all be all. It, just like passer rating, needs the context of the rest of the stats.

 

To your second question, yes. Timmy had 8 rushes for 68 yards and a TD. That's what is even funnier. That's affects ESPN's stat of how well the QB plays? Why? The QB's job has never been to run. Yet, if he can't complete a pass, but rushes for 50 yards, he comes out alright with ESPN's QBR. Even more nonsensical. Also, the funniest example is Tim Tebow's 2 passes completed for a QBR of 56.6. No joke. 2 for 8, and that was his QBR. Unless he rushed for 300 yards, that is not an "above average" performance. Now you may say, "Hey FC, is passer rating was 100+, it's not like that did any better," and that's true. The difference is that tQBR was supposed to not fall into the same traps passer rating did. That was the whole point of the stat, to be better than passer rating. And it can't even do that.

 

That's why I call it the Tebow stat. Because the only thing it does with any real success is make Tebow look like a great QB.

You'll like this piece: http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/qbr-espns-deeply-flawed-made-for-tv-stat/7978/

[1billsfan]

 

Blaine Gabbert got traded if the Bills were to draft a QB I think it's fair to say either Taylor or E.J. are gone. E.J. would bring a 6th or a 7th.

 

 

Sorry, but the Bills are not going into the regular season with a 32 year old backup QB with a bum foot, a project QB drafted at #50 and a QB with only 35 NFL pass attempts.

EJ is not going anywhere. The haters are just going to have live with the possibility of eating serious crow.

[Jets Hater]

I have been saying Tannehill is a joke because:

his mechanics suck, and I can prove it, and so can he, because he can't throw accurately down field directly due to them,

he's a half-field reader, and I can prove it,

he's a 1st rout...then panic "progression" guy, which means he's a playkiller..."coincidentally" they moved in read/option last year, midseason, and various clowns rejoiced at his "running ability" ...so I don't have to prove it, as they already did it for me,

he doesn't read Ds very well, and I've proven that plenty,

he lacks toughness/is a Kyle Orton clone when he knows he might get sacked, and has proven he will put the ball on the ground if you hit him hard,

 

....for 3 years...

 

....and demonstrated this/backed it up, beyond all doubt, in multiple threads/posts with film and screen shots.

 

Now, what is easier to believe? That I have done as I have said, or that you, with 65 total posts, haven't been around here long enough to know that's what I have done?

 

The simple fact is Tannehill is the personification of the Emporer's New Clothes. Miami is a big market, the media wants to talk about big markets, and therefore Tannehill is "good", "improving", "leading", blah F'ing blah. Everybody "sees" Tannehill, because it's good business.

 

But, when you actually sit down and watch the game, and rewind the film and slow it down? Like it or not: EJ has shown better at this point, it's just a matter of opportunities to play.

 

Once again: I will remind you of the last game of the year, where Geno Smith outplayed Tannehill, easily doubled his QBR and nearly doubled his rating. Tannehill got sacked 7 times...precisely because of what I said above: you take away his first read, it's panic time.

 

Here's what I can't believe: We watched Tannehill crump over and over against our own team 2 times last year. How does anyone come away from those 2 games thinking we want Tannehill on this team?

 

When he fumbled the ball away, during the Thursday Night game, while "running" ? When he got sacked, in the shotgun, by standing like a statue, and watching our saftey blitzer run all 20 yards towards him, never moving a muscle?

 

I want to know who here was sitting there, watching that, and saying "yeah I'd take him over EJ any day!"

 

It's F'ing preposterous.

 

No, it's not. It's simply my opinion. I do not think that EJ is or will ever be better than Tannehill. If I'm wrong, great ! It would mean the Bills are doing good. To be clear, I don't think Tannehill is a very good QB. I just think that EJ is worst.

 

Hopefully, he proves me wrong.

 

Go Bills!

[K D]

i think EJ is going to surprise some people and win the starting job. he won't need to do much in this offense so it fits his skill set. get the ball to the playmakers and let them make plays

[Big Gun]

i think EJ is going to surprise some people and win the starting job. he won't need to do much in this offense so it fits his skill set. get the ball to the playmakers and let them make plays

And I think EJ is going to break alot of hearts when it becomes clear he can't beat his way out of a wet paper bag and is the 3rd stringer.

[NewEra]

Do you think Tannehill has better mechanics than EJ?

Do you think he has better downfield, midfield, and short range accuracy than EJ? What can you point to, mechanically, that proves your answer?

Who has a better/more natural throwing motion?

Who finishes their throws where, and why is one better than another?

Who has a quicker release?

Who has the superior body type for throwing?

Who will always make more powerful throws/more accurate throws, directly due to the physiological difference in how they throw?

Who, due directly to that difference, is therefore able to combine both their body type and their developed skill(how they throw) for better throwing?

Who stays balanced throughout the throw, and therefore transfers their weight smoothly, not wasting motion, and thus putting all their power into the throw?

 

IF you answered Tannehill to any of those? You simply either don't know, or don't understand, what you are looking at. EJ's throwing is better in every measurable way, period.

 

Who has the higher propensity to read the entire field?

Who has the higher propensity to look for his 2nd, 3rd and 4th option?

 

So far, it's a toss-up, but only on a technicality. Tannehill has had real trouble with this, and he's had a chance to play a lot more. Unless looking one way, and throwing the other, is the design of the play, with "throwing the other" still being the 1st/only read? Tannehill hasn't shown he can read progessions worth a damn yet. The Dolphins moving in read/option during the season last year merely underlines that point: why do that if Tannehill is improving as a classic pocket passer? Meanwhile, EJ has shown a mixed bag. Therefore, we know where Tannehill is = not good. We don't know where EJ is because he hasn't played enough games. Thus, it's a tie, but only because EJ hasn't played 8 games in a row yet. Tannehill can't use the experience excuse. EJ can.

 

Whose footwork is more sound on non-pressure throws?

Whose footwork is more sound on throws under pressure?

Who is better at moving in the pocket to avoid pressure, and then throwing accurately(um, actually for this one, it should be who can actually do that, and who can't?)

 

EJ is better, clearly. This is why he can hit downfield so accurately...and why Tannehill rarely, if ever, even attempts them.

 

Why can EJ hit a 50 yard bomb on target, and yet miss a 5 yard out so wildly? That is mystery. But I think that's more mental, Marrone, etc. than anything. Notice: that's the first time I said I think. I know everything above this.

 

Let's assume Tannehill is a better leader....I don't know, just because.

 

Now, you're telling me that you'd rather have Tannehill, whose ceiling is "below-average", over EJ, who has "all-pro" physical ability?

 

All of this is easily seen if you have time to watch the film. NFL rewind will set you back $20.

 

If you do the film study I have, and if you develop the understanding of the physiology of sports as I have, you'd realize how preposterous this entire argument is.

good lord OC. I don't have the patience or the time. Go Bills.

[K D]

And I think EJ is going to break alot of hearts when it becomes clear he can't beat his way out of a wet paper bag and is the 3rd stringer.

if he can't beat out Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor then maybe he should re-think his career choice lol. if he looks like crap in the preseason then i have no problem trying to trade him for a 6th or 7th round pick (i bet Chip Kelly would be interested). at least then we will know we gave him a shot and it just didn't work out.

 

i think he has the tools to be a good (game manager) QB. he has the size, athleticism, strong arm, work ethic, clutch factor. i think it's the mental aspect of the game that is holding him back. he is quick to check down and he seems unsure of himself a lot of times. he's the biggest QB in the NFL and he runs a 4.6, he should be a bigger threat out of the pocket than what he has shown. if he works at it and brings it all together he can be a decent enough QB for us to win a lot of games. there's no reason why he can't be a poor man's Kappernick in this offense

[San-O]

Why doesn't someone just put up a "are you an EJ apologist" poll and get it over with..

[Jets Hater]

if he can't beat out Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor then maybe he should re-think his career choice lol. if he looks like crap in the preseason then i have no problem trying to trade him for a 6th or 7th round pick (i bet Chip Kelly would be interested). at least then we will know we gave him a shot and it just didn't work out.

 

i think he has the tools to be a good (game manager) QB. he has the size, athleticism, strong arm, work ethic, clutch factor. i think it's the mental aspect of the game that is holding him back. he is quick to check down and he seems unsure of himself a lot of times. he's the biggest QB in the NFL and he runs a 4.6, he should be a bigger threat out of the pocket than what he has shown. if he works at it and brings it all together he can be a decent enough QB for us to win a lot of games. there's no reason why he can't be a poor man's Kappernick in this offense

 

I haven't seen the clutch factor at all with EJ. That's my biggest issue with him. Over throwing open receivers by 5 yards or throwing 5 yards out of bounds is not clutch in my eyes. You say his issue is the mental aspect. Well, being clutch is ALL mental.

[K D]

 

I haven't seen the clutch factor at all with EJ. That's my biggest issue with him. Over throwing open receivers by 5 yards or throwing 5 yards out of bounds is not clutch in my eyes. You say his issue is the mental aspect. Well, being clutch is ALL mental.

he has shown he is clutch. comeback win vs Carolina. led us down the field twice vs Atlanta only to have the receivers fumble the game away. i think he can make the plays when he needs to. but i agree, he needs to work on his accuracy but i think that can be a byproduct of not knowing what to do with the ball and second guessing himself too. he tries to be too perfect i think but sometimes you make mistakes and you can't be afraid to fail. trust your judgement and your talent and let the ball fly

[Big Gun]

if he can't beat out Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor then maybe he should re-think his career choice lol. if he looks like crap in the preseason then i have no problem trying to trade him for a 6th or 7th round pick (i bet Chip Kelly would be interested). at least then we will know we gave him a shot and it just didn't work out.

 

i think he has the tools to be a good (game manager) QB. he has the size, athleticism, strong arm, work ethic, clutch factor. i think it's the mental aspect of the game that is holding him back. he is quick to check down and he seems unsure of himself a lot of times. he's the biggest QB in the NFL and he runs a 4.6, he should be a bigger threat out of the pocket than what he has shown. if he works at it and brings it all together he can be a decent enough QB for us to win a lot of games. there's no reason why he can't be a poor man's Kappernick in this offense

He was benched in favor of Kyle FREAKING Orton, and you think he is going to beat out Matt Cassel! IMO I don't think there is any way Rex hitches his wagon to EJ. I just can't see it.

[K D]

He was benched in favor of Kyle FREAKING Orton, and you think he is going to beat out Matt Cassel! IMO I don't think there is any way Rex hitches his wagon to EJ. I just can't see it.

He never had to compete vs Orton though. Marrone just decided to go to Orton after the Texans game. Let's see how he does when he has to fight for his job in training camp

[metzelaars_lives]

This is just such a stupid topic. If you polled Dolphins fans and asked them if they would trade a first round draft pick who didn't even start playing quarterback until his senior year of college (yet was drafted higher than EJ Manuel), has started every single game his first three years while his stats have improved immensely each year to the point that in his third season he threw for 4,000+ yards, 27 TD's and 12 INT's for EJ freaking Manuel, literally zero of them would make this trade. And when I say zero, I mean like not one person in the whole world. This thread has really exposed how jaded and biased some of you can be. It's just a ridiculous thread.

the haters will not listen to reason. They are extra cranky. must be that time of the month

Hey pal (remember we're friends now), saying that EJ Manuel was benched in favor of Kyle Orton and you don't see him winning the job vs. Cassel, doesn't make you a troll, it doesn't make you a "hater," nor does it mean you are on your period. Let's just all let things play out and a whole bunch of us are going to be able to say "I told you so" and a whole bunch of us are going to eat crow. In the meantime there is no sense in arguing about it anymore.

[Jets Hater]

This is just such a stupid topic. If you polled Dolphins fans and asked them if they would trade a first round draft pick who didn't even start playing quarterback until his senior year of college (yet was drafted higher than EJ Manuel), has started every single game his first three years while his stats have improved immensely each year to the point that in his third season he threw for 4,000+ yards, 27 TD's and 12 INT's for EJ freaking Manuel, literally zero of them would make this trade. And when I say zero, I mean like not one person in the whole world. This thread has really exposed how jaded and biased some of you can be. It's just a ridiculous thread.

 

Stop it !! You make way to much sense !!

[GunnerBill]

This is just such a stupid topic. If you polled Dolphins fans and asked them if they would trade a first round draft pick who didn't even start playing quarterback until his senior year of college (yet was drafted higher than EJ Manuel), has started every single game his first three years while his stats have improved immensely each year to the point that in his third season he threw for 4,000+ yards, 27 TD's and 12 INT's for EJ freaking Manuel, literally zero of them would make this trade. And when I say zero, I mean like not one person in the whole world. This thread has really exposed how jaded and biased some of you can be. It's just a ridiculous thread.

 

I think you are right no Dolphins fan would trade Tannehill for EJ. However, the Dolphins fans are far from in love with Tannehill and a lot of them would not agree with your assertion earlier that he is a top 20 Quarterback. Tannehill isn't that great. He has, however, shown more than EJ Manuel to this point albeit he had coaching that stuck with him through his poorer moments and EJ had coaching that benched him and as much as you might not like it the EJ supporters are right to make that point.

 

I'm not far from where you are on EJ, but I'm some distance away on Tannehill - and yet I'd still make this hypothetical trade.

[metzelaars_lives]

 

I think you are right no Dolphins fan would trade Tannehill for EJ. However, the Dolphins fans are far from in love with Tannehill and a lot of them would not agree with your assertion earlier that he is a top 20 Quarterback. Tannehill isn't that great. He has, however, shown more than EJ Manuel to this point albeit he had coaching that stuck with him through his poorer moments and EJ had coaching that benched him and as much as you might not like it the EJ supporters are right to make that point.

 

I'm not far from where you are on EJ, but I'm some distance away on Tannehill - and yet I'd still make this hypothetical trade.

He is a guy that a team can say, "yes this guy is our starting QB, we are comfortable with that." That right there puts him in the top 20 because there aren't more than 20 guys in the whole league that fit that description. And I don't think he's that great either. But you don't luck your way to the numbers he put up last year, you just don't. I think Bills fans are also a little biased on this particular thread because Tannehill has played some of his worst games against the Bills. And lastly, the "Tannehill has hit his ceiling, this I can assure you" while "EJ has this magical upside" people sound more loony than the Jehova's Witness guys who literally just knocked on my door while I was in the middle of typing this. Yes that just happened.

Edited March 19, 2015 by metzelaars_lives