Would you, right now, trade EJ for Tannehill? Chapter 2

[NewEra]

How in God's name did you determine that? So after two years in the league we know nothing but after three years it's case closed? Not that it matters but do some of you have any idea how much dolphins would laugh at you if they read this thread? If EJ Manuel ever puts up the numbers tannehill put up last year every last one of us would be absolutely elated.

From reading his posts, he knows a lot of things all gms would like to know.

[Jets Hater]

I can't believe some 50 people would actually say no to this trade. Tannehill >> EJ. He would make us a definite playoff contender while with EJ, it's only about 25% IMO.

[OCinBuffalo]

EJ's tQBR in 2014 was less than 20. 50/50? Really?

Is that what I said?

 

I am willing to discuss this with you, but not if you're going to play games like this.

 

Or, you know I am right, and this is the best you can do. And, since this all you have, there's little point in me continuing.

 

In any event, I've made my case, we are talking career #s, and where EJ goes from here going forward in his CAREER. Obvious. Unless of course you have a time machine, and we can go back, knock off Marrone in an "accident", and see how EJ would have played out 2014...this discussion is pointless, and so is your post.

 

The simple fact remains: we don't "know" anything about QBs until they've played enough games for us to know. EJ hasn't played enough games for anyone to know much of anything, especially since we've seen such wild swings with him. I remember the game winning drives as much as I remember the passes to nowhere/4 yards over the WR's head. Which is the real EJ?

 

We simply do not know. Accept reality.

[FireChan]

Is that what I said?

 

I am willing to discuss this with you, but not if you're going to play games like this.

 

Or, you know I am right, and this is the best you can do. And, since this all you have, there's little point in me continuing.

 

In any event, I've made my case, we are talking career #s, and where EJ goes from here going forward in his CAREER. Obvious. Unless of course you have a time machine, and we can go back, knock off Marrone in an "accident", and see how EJ would have played out 2014...this discussion is pointless, and so is your post.

 

The simple fact remains: we don't "know" anything about QBs until they've played enough games for us to know. EJ hasn't played enough games for anyone to know much of anything, especially since we've seen such wild swings with him. I remember the game winning drives as much as I remember the passes to nowhere/4 yards over the WR's head. Which is the real EJ?

 

We simply do not know. Accept reality.

I will try to give you an example of what I am trying to say.

 

Let's say I played T-ball for 2 years. My first year, I played decently, with a .800 batting average. My second year, I was missing much more than my first year, and I had .200. My career average may be .500, but that doesn't really tell the whole story, or my trajectory does it? I played much worse my second year than my first. That's reality.

 

And personally, I don't feel you can say, "you'll bat .500 next year, because that's your average."

[OCinBuffalo]

I can't believe some 50 people would actually say no to this trade. Tannehill >> EJ. He would make us a definite playoff contender while with EJ, it's only about 25% IMO.

I have been saying Tannehill is a joke because:

his mechanics suck, and I can prove it, and so can he, because he can't throw accurately down field directly due to them,

he's a half-field reader, and I can prove it,

he's a 1st rout...then panic "progression" guy, which means he's a playkiller..."coincidentally" they moved in read/option last year, midseason, and various clowns rejoiced at his "running ability" ...so I don't have to prove it, as they already did it for me,

he doesn't read Ds very well, and I've proven that plenty,

he lacks toughness/is a Kyle Orton clone when he knows he might get sacked, and has proven he will put the ball on the ground if you hit him hard,

 

....for 3 years...

 

....and demonstrated this/backed it up, beyond all doubt, in multiple threads/posts with film and screen shots.

 

Now, what is easier to believe? That I have done as I have said, or that you, with 65 total posts, haven't been around here long enough to know that's what I have done?

 

The simple fact is Tannehill is the personification of the Emporer's New Clothes. Miami is a big market, the media wants to talk about big markets, and therefore Tannehill is "good", "improving", "leading", blah F'ing blah. Everybody "sees" Tannehill, because it's good business.

 

But, when you actually sit down and watch the game, and rewind the film and slow it down? Like it or not: EJ has shown better at this point, it's just a matter of opportunities to play.

 

Once again: I will remind you of the last game of the year, where Geno Smith outplayed Tannehill, easily doubled his QBR and nearly doubled his rating. Tannehill got sacked 7 times...precisely because of what I said above: you take away his first read, it's panic time.

 

Here's what I can't believe: We watched Tannehill crump over and over against our own team 2 times last year. How does anyone come away from those 2 games thinking we want Tannehill on this team?

 

When he fumbled the ball away, during the Thursday Night game, while "running" ? When he got sacked, in the shotgun, by standing like a statue, and watching our saftey blitzer run all 20 yards towards him, never moving a muscle?

 

I want to know who here was sitting there, watching that, and saying "yeah I'd take him over EJ any day!"

 

It's F'ing preposterous.

[NewEra]

I have been saying Tannehill is a joke because:

his mechanics suck, and I can prove it, and so can he, because he can't throw accurately down field directly due to them,

he's a half-field reader, and I can prove it,

he's a 1st rout...then panic "progression" guy, which means he's a playkiller..."coincidentally" they moved in read/option last year, midseason, and various clowns rejoiced at his "running ability" ...so I don't have to prove it, as they already did it for me,

he doesn't read Ds very well, and I've proven that plenty,

he lacks toughness/is a Kyle Orton clone when he knows he might get sacked, and has proven he will put the ball on the ground if you hit him hard,

 

....for 3 years...

 

....and demonstrated this/backed it up, beyond all doubt, in multiple threads/posts with film and screen shots.

 

Now, what is easier to believe? That I have done as I have said, or that you, with 65 total posts, haven't been around here long enough to know that's what I have done?

 

The simple fact is Tannehill is the personification of the Emporer's New Clothes. Miami is a big market, the media wants to talk about big markets, and therefore Tannehill is "good", "improving", "leading", blah F'ing blah. Everybody "sees" Tannehill, because it's good business.

 

But, when you actually sit down and watch the game, and rewind the film and slow it down? Like it or not: EJ has shown better at this point, it's just a matter of opportunities to play.

 

Once again: I will remind you of the last game of the year, where Geno Smith outplayed Tannehill, easily doubled his QBR and nearly doubled his rating. Tannehill got sacked 7 times...precisely because of what I said above: you take away his first read, it's panic time.

 

Here's what I can't believe: We watched Tannehill crump over and over against our own team 2 times last year. How does anyone come away from those 2 games thinking we want Tannehill on this team?

 

When he fumbled the ball away, during the Thursday Night game, while "running" ? When he got sacked, in the shotgun, by standing like a statue, and watching our saftey blitzer run all 20 yards towards him, never moving a muscle?

 

I want to know who here was sitting there, watching that, and saying "yeah I'd take him over EJ any day!"

 

It's F'ing preposterous.

Our D makes most QBs look that way sir. While I don't think tannehill is very good, I'd take him over EJ right now and I really wouldn't have to think about it.

 

Regarding the last sentence in your post, most of us remember the texans game. That's why we'd take tannehill.

[OCinBuffalo]

I will try to give you an example of what I am trying to say.

 

Let's say I played T-ball for 2 years. My first year, I played decently, with a .800 batting average. My second year, I was missing much more than my first year, and I had .200. My career average may be .500, but that doesn't really tell the whole story, or my trajectory does it? I played much worse my second year than my first. That's reality.

 

And personally, I don't feel you can say, "you'll bat .500 next year, because that's your average."

Jesus.

 

I painstakingly went out of my way to say: there's little mathematical chance of EJ remaining statistically exactly the same, especially in QBR.So WTF? He's either going to get worse, or get better, and since he currently resides at the 50th percentile in career QBR play? The only rational expectation is that he has an equal chance of doing either. Assume EJ plays 30 games over the next 3 years, do you have any idea how unlikely it is that he remains exactly where he is in QBR, and not 5 pts up or down? Or, do you know what a standard deviation is?

 

Look: The damn statistical instrument itself it telling us, with precision, that it could go either way. He's literally at a 50/50 chance, in every proper analysis.

 

"Feel"? There is no feel here. There is only proper statistical analysis done by me, that is based on proper statistical methodology done by FO/ESPN.

 

Thus, feel doesn't enter into it. Given 30 years of QB play compiled, the ONLY thing we can say is: EJ is the embodiment of average QB play.

 

The entire point of QBR, and anlytics in general, is to REMOVE arguments like yours: biased, opinion-based, and methodologically ridiculous, from public discourse, and replace them with statistical propensities that are nearly inarguable, and thus can be used for nearly flawless decision-making.

 

Outliers happen. Nothing is perfect, nor should we expect it. But, in EJ's case, it is 50/50, and that's all there is to it.

[metzelaars_lives]

Jesus.

 

I painstakingly went out of my way to say: there's little mathematical chance of EJ remaining statistically exactly the same, especially in QBR.So WTF? He's either going to get worse, or get better, and since he currently resides at the 50th percentile in career QBR play? The only rational expectation is that he has an equal chance of doing either. Assume EJ plays 30 games over the next 3 years, do you have any idea how unlikely it is that he remains exactly where he is in QBR, and not 5 pts up or down? Or, do you know what a standard deviation is?

 

Look: The damn statistical instrument itself it telling us, with precision, that it could go either way. He's literally at a 50/50 chance, in every proper analysis.

 

"Feel"? There is no feel here. There is only proper statistical analysis done by me, that is based on proper statistical methodology done by FO/ESPN.

 

Thus, feel doesn't enter into it. Given 30 years of QB play compiled, the ONLY thing we can say is: EJ is the embodiment of average QB play.

 

The entire point of QBR, and anlytics in general, is to REMOVE arguments like yours: biased, opinion-based, and methodologically ridiculous, from public discourse, and replace them with statistical propensities that are nearly inarguable, and thus can be used for nearly flawless decision-making.

 

Outliers happen. Nothing is perfect, nor should we expect it. But, in EJ's case, it is 50/50, and that's all there is to it.

Your tone, overuse of emoticons and constant attempts at patronizing people is more than a little obnoxious.

 

Your statements such as you can "prove that Tannehill has faulty mechanics" sounds like when Dr. Evil's dad claimed to have invented the question mark.

 

Let's just see where each QB stands after this season.

 

There is no reason to think Tannehill can't improve on 4,000+ yards, 27 TD's and 12 TD's.

 

There is absolutely no reason to be confident in EJ Manuel showing up and improving on his performance last season. As I've stated tirelessly, I hope he does. But my God, he has a hell of a lot more to prove than Ryan Tannehill at this point.

[OCinBuffalo]

Our D makes most QBs look that way sir. While I don't think tannehill is very good, I'd take him over EJ right now and I really wouldn't have to think about it.

 

Regarding the last sentence in your post, most of us remember the texans game. That's why we'd take tannehill.

Do you think Tannehill has better mechanics than EJ?

Do you think he has better downfield, midfield, and short range accuracy than EJ? What can you point to, mechanically, that proves your answer?

Who has a better/more natural throwing motion?

Who finishes their throws where, and why is one better than another?

Who has a quicker release?

Who has the superior body type for throwing?

Who will always make more powerful throws/more accurate throws, directly due to the physiological difference in how they throw?

Who, due directly to that difference, is therefore able to combine both their body type and their developed skill(how they throw) for better throwing?

Who stays balanced throughout the throw, and therefore transfers their weight smoothly, not wasting motion, and thus putting all their power into the throw?

 

IF you answered Tannehill to any of those? You simply either don't know, or don't understand, what you are looking at. EJ's throwing is better in every measurable way, period.

 

Who has the higher propensity to read the entire field?

Who has the higher propensity to look for his 2nd, 3rd and 4th option?

 

So far, it's a toss-up, but only on a technicality. Tannehill has had real trouble with this, and he's had a chance to play a lot more. Unless looking one way, and throwing the other, is the design of the play, with "throwing the other" still being the 1st/only read? Tannehill hasn't shown he can read progessions worth a damn yet. The Dolphins moving in read/option during the season last year merely underlines that point: why do that if Tannehill is improving as a classic pocket passer? Meanwhile, EJ has shown a mixed bag. Therefore, we know where Tannehill is = not good. We don't know where EJ is because he hasn't played enough games. Thus, it's a tie, but only because EJ hasn't played 8 games in a row yet. Tannehill can't use the experience excuse. EJ can.

 

Whose footwork is more sound on non-pressure throws?

Whose footwork is more sound on throws under pressure?

Who is better at moving in the pocket to avoid pressure, and then throwing accurately(um, actually for this one, it should be who can actually do that, and who can't?)

 

EJ is better, clearly. This is why he can hit downfield so accurately...and why Tannehill rarely, if ever, even attempts them.

 

Why can EJ hit a 50 yard bomb on target, and yet miss a 5 yard out so wildly? That is mystery. But I think that's more mental, Marrone, etc. than anything. Notice: that's the first time I said I think. I know everything above this.

 

Let's assume Tannehill is a better leader....I don't know, just because.

 

Now, you're telling me that you'd rather have Tannehill, whose ceiling is "below-average", over EJ, who has "all-pro" physical ability?

 

All of this is easily seen if you have time to watch the film. NFL rewind will set you back $20.

 

If you do the film study I have, and if you develop the understanding of the physiology of sports as I have, you'd realize how preposterous this entire argument is.

Edited March 18, 2015 by OCinBuffalo

[FireChan]

Jesus.

 

I painstakingly went out of my way to say: there's little mathematical chance of EJ remaining statistically exactly the same, especially in QBR.So WTF? He's either going to get worse, or get better, and since he currently resides at the 50th percentile in career QBR play? The only rational expectation is that he has an equal chance of doing either. Assume EJ plays 30 games over the next 3 years, do you have any idea how unlikely it is that he remains exactly where he is in QBR, and not 5 pts up or down? Or, do you know what a standard deviation is?

 

Look: The damn statistical instrument itself it telling us, with precision, that it could go either way. He's literally at a 50/50 chance, in every proper analysis.

 

"Feel"? There is no feel here. There is only proper statistical analysis done by me, that is based on proper statistical methodology done by FO/ESPN.

 

Thus, feel doesn't enter into it. Given 30 years of QB play compiled, the ONLY thing we can say is: EJ is the embodiment of average QB play.

 

The entire point of QBR, and anlytics in general, is to REMOVE arguments like yours: biased, opinion-based, and methodologically ridiculous, from public discourse, and replace them with statistical propensities that are nearly inarguable, and thus can be used for nearly flawless decision-making.

 

Outliers happen. Nothing is perfect, nor should we expect it. But, in EJ's case, it is 50/50, and that's all there is to it.

I didn't know you meant 50th percentile.

 

How is QBR recorded? What's the method?

[OCinBuffalo]

Your tone, overuse of emoticons and constant attempts at patronizing people is more than a little obnoxious.

 

Your statements such as you can "prove that Tannehill has faulty mechanics" sounds like when Dr. Evil's dad claimed to have invented the question mark.

 

Let's just see where each QB stands after this season.

 

There is no reason to think Tannehill can't improve on 4,000+ yards, 27 TD's and 12 TD's.

 

There is absolutely no reason to be confident in EJ Manuel showing up and improving on his performance last season. As I've stated tirelessly, I hope he does. But my God, he has a hell of a lot more to prove than Ryan Tannehill at this point.

Yeah, well, you're refusal to deal with the facts and/or refusal to refute or even address in some cases, a single argument that anyone had made in this thread prior to me posting in it?

 

That is what summoned me here, with my obnoxiousness. (You can always tell when somebody is losing, when they start talking about the process of the conversation, and stop talking about its content). I was asked to post more. Threads like this?

 

Exactly why I was asked to post more.

 

You can count on me, and my "style" every time utter nonsense gets thrown around this board. Doubly so if it is WGR parrotted nonsense.

 

As I posted above, I can, and would be more than happy to take you through every single bit of the physiological differences in the mechanics.

 

However, if you sign up for that, there's no quitting after 5 posts. I'm not going to waste my time explaining everything I know about this, if you don't want to learn, or will just chickenshit out of it once you realize that yeah....I do know about throwing, and yeah, I can prove what I'm saying.

I didn't know you meant 50th percentile.

 

How is QBR recorded? What's the method?

Here you go

Edited March 18, 2015 by OCinBuffalo

[metzelaars_lives]

Yeah, well, you're refusal to deal with the facts and/or refusal to refute or even address in some cases, a single argument that anyone had made in this thread prior to me posting in it?

 

That is what summoned me here, with my obnoxiousness. (You can always tell when somebody is losing, when they start talking about the process of the conversation, and stop talking about its content). I was asked to post more. Threads like this?

 

Exactly why I was asked to post more.

 

You can count on me, and my "style" every time utter nonsense gets thrown around this board. Doubly so if it is WGR parrotted nonsense.

 

As I posted above, I can, and would be more than happy to take you through every single bit of the physiological differences in the mechanics.

 

However, if you sign up for that, there's no quitting after 5 posts. I'm not going to waste my time explaining everything I know about this, if you don't want to learn, or will just chickenshit out of it once you realize that yeah....I do know about throwing, and yeah, I can prove what I'm saying.

Here you go

I'm not sure you're winning anything. I don't even know what argument you're attempting to make. You're invoking QBR- Tannehill's QBR (not that I think QBR is the be-all-end-all stat myself) has been 50, 46 and 59. EJ Manuel's has been 42 and 20- albeit in limited opportunities- albeit, in his second season, as a result of his own poor play.

 

Anyway my contention is that Tannehill is a solid, average starting QB in this league. And when I say average, I don't mean in the way "average" and "mediocre" are so liberally thrown around these parts. Kyle Orton was not "mediocre" last year, he sucked. I mean, he is around the 15-20th best starting QB in the league. But definitely good enough to be a team's starter, if you will, "franchise" QB. I would agree with most posters that his ceiling is not a top ten QB.

 

My contention is also that I don't believe EJ Manuel will ever achieve "average" or solid, yeah we're comfortable with this guy as our starter status. This is just my opinion based on what I've seen. But please don't tell everyone you have scientific data proving that EJ is going to be good or Tannehill sucks. The numbers are what they are. I would be willing to take out a second mortgage to bet even odds that EJ Manuel never throws for 4,000 yards and 27 TD's in a season.

 

So what exactly is your contention with respect to what I just wrote?

[FireChan]

Yeah, well, you're refusal to deal with the facts and/or refusal to refute or even address in some cases, a single argument that anyone had made in this thread prior to me posting in it?

 

That is what summoned me here, with my obnoxiousness. (You can always tell when somebody is losing, when they start talking about the process of the conversation, and stop talking about its content). I was asked to post more. Threads like this?

 

Exactly why I was asked to post more.

 

You can count on me, and my "style" every time utter nonsense gets thrown around this board. Doubly so if it is WGR parrotted nonsense.

 

As I posted above, I can, and would be more than happy to take you through every single bit of the physiological differences in the mechanics.

 

However, if you sign up for that, there's no quitting after 5 posts. I'm not going to waste my time explaining everything I know about this, if you don't want to learn, or will just chickenshit out of it once you realize that yeah....I do know about throwing, and yeah, I can prove what I'm saying.

Here you go

No, I want to see the methodology. Not the "summary." Things like "clutch factor" need to be seen and evaluated. In fact, the entire thing does.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6833215/explaining-statistics-total-quarterback-rating

 

You're a man of science. Don't tell me you were convinced of the validity of tQBR because ESPN told you it works.

Edited March 18, 2015 by FireChan

[OCinBuffalo]

I'm not sure you're winning anything. I don't even know what argument you're attempting to make. You're invoking QBR- Tannehill's QBR (not that I think QBR is the be-all-end-all stat myself) has been 50, 46 and 59. EJ Manuel's has been 42 and 20- albeit in limited opportunities- albeit, in his second season, as a result of his own poor play.

 

Anyway my contention is that Tannehill is a solid, average starting QB in this league. And when I say average, I don't mean in the way "average" and "mediocre" are so liberally thrown around these parts. Kyle Orton was not "mediocre" last year, he sucked. I mean, he is around the 15-20th best starting QB in the league. But definitely good enough to be a team's starter, if you will, "franchise" QB. I would agree with most posters that his ceiling is not a top ten QB.

 

My contention is also that I don't believe EJ Manuel will ever achieve "average" or solid, yeah we're comfortable with this guy as our starter status. This is just my opinion based on what I've seen. But please don't tell everyone you have scientific data proving that EJ is going to be good or Tannehill sucks. The numbers are what they are. I would be willing to take out a second mortgage to bet even odds that EJ Manuel never throws for 4,000 yards and 27 TD's in a season.

 

So what exactly is your contention with respect to what I just wrote?

Contend all you like, as long as you realize that it's reliant on practically nothing of substance. "What you've seen", given what you've posted, hell, might as well be a box score. Box scores don't tell us anything at all about the potential of a player. Or, why would teams spend so much money flying scouts all over the country, if they could just sit in their offices and read stats/box scores?

 

Statistically, EJ hasn't really played enough games to qualify for most of FO's analyses. However, in terms of what matters, EJ has the potential to be a top 10 QB. That's due to his head, his heart and his undeniable physical tools, which are far and away superior to Tannehill's. NO ONE can say whether EJ will get his schit together or not, but you don't trade that...for somebody you know will NEVER be a top 10 QB.

 

What is the point? Why not just go get Matt Cassel? Oh, wait, we already did that, didn't we? Why would I trade top 10 QB potential, for a guy I can get as a FA/for a 4th rounder?

 

Here's what I have seen: I have seen in Tannehill a guy who wouldn't be a starting QB if this was 1988, or 1998, or 2008. We are just going through a dry spell. It happens. That, and the NFL is currently going through this schizophrenic time right now, because college football is also having a period of schizophrenia, where teams think Tim Tebow football is the way to win. Up is down, reason doesn't matter, burn all the books, etc.

 

How else does one explain Johnny Manziel?

 

Some days, I liken my observation of the current miasma of NFL "thought" to that of a rational, sane, critical thinking German, experiencing the 1930s. Lots of "WTF is he even talking about"?

 

But, sooner or later, a group of Elways, Marinos and Kellys will arrive in college, throw for 6000 yards a season, blow the current nonsense out of the water, and all will be back to normal.

 

Bottom Line: EJ has a lot more in common with Dan Marino right now, than Tannehill ever will.

[metzelaars_lives]

Contend all you like, as long as you realize that it's reliant on practically nothing of substance. "What you've seen", given what you've posted, hell, might as well be a box score. Box scores don't tell us anything at all about the potential of a player. Or, why would teams spend so much money flying scouts all over the country, if they could just sit in their offices and read stats/box scores?

 

Statistically, EJ hasn't really played enough games to qualify for most of FO's analyses. However, in terms of what matters, EJ has the potential to be a top 10 QB. That's due to his head, his heart and his undeniable physical tools, which are far and away superior to Tannehill's. NO ONE can say whether EJ will get his schit together or not, but you don't trade that...for somebody you know will NEVER be a top 10 QB.

 

What is the point? Why not just go get Matt Cassel? Oh, wait, we already did that, didn't we? Why would I trade top 10 QB potential, for a guy I can get as a FA/for a 4th rounder?

 

Here's what I have seen: I have seen in Tannehill a guy who wouldn't be a starting QB if this was 1988, or 1998, or 2008. We are just going through a dry spell. It happens. That, and the NFL is currently going through this schizophrenic time right now, because college football is also having a period of schizophrenia, where teams think Tim Tebow football is the way to win. Up is down, reason doesn't matter, burn all the books, etc.

 

How else does one explain Johnny Manziel?

 

Some days, I liken my observation of the current miasma of NFL "thought" to that of a rational, sane, critical thinking German, experiencing the 1930s. Lots of "WTF is he even talking about"?

 

But, sooner or later, a group of Elways, Marinos and Kellys will arrive in college, throw for 6000 yards a season, blow the current nonsense out of the water, and all will be back to normal.

 

Bottom Line: EJ has a lot more in common with Dan Marino right now, than Tannehill ever will.

Now I'm kind of lost- you tell me I can't use "what I've seen" but you are using absolutely nothing measurable or quantifiable and pretty much telling me that EJ has all these intangibles. Sounds like we both just flat out have opinions.

 

We agree that Tannehill is not a top ten QB. OK.

 

We can agree (I would hope) that Tannehill is already a top 20 QB.

 

We would disagree that EJ Manuel can be a top ten QB. I don't think he will be a top 20 QB. Can he be as good as Tannehill is already? Yes, I suppose it's possible. But again, would you bet even odds that EJ Manuel ever throws for 4,000 yards and 27 TD's in a single season? Really, would ya?

 

I guess we'll see, right?

[JESSEFEFFER]

No, I want to see the methodology. Not the "summary." Things like "clutch factor" need to be seen and evaluated. In fact, the entire thing does.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6833215/explaining-statistics-total-quarterback-rating

 

You're a man of science. Don't tell me you were convinced of the validity of tQBR because ESPN told you it works.

I will interject here about the tQBR in that is superior to the NFL passer rating in some big ways.

 

QB fumbles, sacks taken, the game context of when yards are gained, and anything positive a QB does while running the ball are all ignored by passer rating. Logically, not scientifically, any rating system that includes these things has to better than one that doesn't.

 

Tanneyhill is interesting as there are parallels to EJ in their early careers. The biggest difference is that Philbin has stuck with Tanneyhill after his strings of poor play while Marrone benched EJ after two poor games.

 

RT 2013 games 4-7 16.4, 39.7, 15.0, 29.8

RT 2014 games 1-3 34.9, 27.3, 21.2 (It seemed Philbin was close to benching him here as he would not back him as the starter when the Miami press asked if he would)

[OCinBuffalo]

No, I want to see the methodology. Not the "summary." Things like "clutch factor" need to be seen and evaluated. In fact, the entire thing does.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/6833215/explaining-statistics-total-quarterback-rating

 

You're a man of science. Don't tell me you were convinced of the validity of tQBR because ESPN told you it works.

Bah! Somewhere, on this very machine in fact...or...maybe not...is my full analysis of QBR as a methodology.

 

I can't find it, and I may have deleted it(because who cares? and, it's not like it's the last one I'll ever do), but at one point I did send it in to ESPN.

 

In fact I agree with your point: I believe one of my criticisms came down to "why create a statistical method, and supporting software, and not open source the damn thing? Do you really think I/somebody can't reverse engineer this? Making it proprietary makes no sense at all...unless there's something in there you don't want us to see...because leaving it to the community means a) you don't have to spend $ on it for it to get better and b) you can still gain the benefits from it. All you are achieving by proceeding in this manner is inviting open-source competition: ask Microsoft how IE is doing."

 

Or something like that.

 

Also, one of the other trouble spots IMO, is the ongoing lack of defensive adjustment. Think about it: the NFC East has been trending downward defensively for what, 4 years now? I mean, who in the NFC East could stop the pass last year? Here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef If you read that right, the NFC East is the worst pass defense division in football That's 4 years of historical data that is skewed towards QBs that have played against them. So, inherently, you're going to have the NFC East's QBs look better than they actually are.

 

Ahem, hence Tony Romo Were not talking about a one-off, but a trend of bias.

 

But, QBR is the best tool we currently have, and it beats the pants off passer rating....

[FireChan]

I will interject here about the tQBR in that is superior to the NFL passer rating in some big ways.

 

QB fumbles, sacks taken, the game context of when yards are gained, and anything positive a QB does while running the ball are all ignored by passer rating. Logically, not scientifically, any rating system that includes these things has to better than one that doesn't.

 

Tanneyhill is interesting as there are parallels to EJ in their early careers. The biggest difference is that Philbin has stuck with Tanneyhill after his strings of poor play while Marrone benched EJ after two poor games.

 

RT 2013 games 4-7 16.4, 39.7, 15.0, 29.8

RT 2014 games 1-3 34.9, 27.3, 21.2 (It seemed Philbin was close to benching him here as he would not back him as the starter when the Miami press asked if he would)

And yet, it is known as the Tim Tebow stat, because Timmy leading a game winning drive after sucking all game made him better than Aaron Rodgers throwing two TD's and 300 yards in a blowout.

 

It's a subjective stat. Used for objective purposes. It's laughable that OC champions it, after posting about being analytical, and no one can give me the 4 thousand line code. You know why? Because no one knows how it works. Yet, it's the "best."

 

It's great in its idea and poor in its execution.

[FireChan]

Here's an example of QBR's woes, and, shockingly, it's pro-EJ.

 

Tim Tebow vs. NYJ in 2011.

9 of 20, for 104 yard. 45%, 5.20 YPA, 0 TD's 0 INT's. 53.7 QBR.

 

EJ Manuel vs. ATL in 2013

 

18 of 32, 210 yards, 56.3% 6.56 YPA, 1 TD 0 INT's. 50.3 QBR.

 

And make no mistake, EJ should've gotten "clutch factor" points. I don't agree with a lot of the excuses made for him, but he won that game.

 

And we get this. This is the barometer for QB success?

[3rdand12]

wow.

i love this stuff. Please carry on gents.No one need to win because its such a great read !