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Matt Cassel a Bill


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America is a great country. Were else can you get $4.75 million a year for being crappy at your job. Agreed that if he is our opening day starter then we have bigger trouble than any running backs, receivers or o line can fix. I know there are no options out there, but I would rather sign a cardboard cut out of Joe Montana instead!!

 

Here's how economics works: "crappy" is relative. He may be at the "crappy" end of the spectrum, but that spectrum includes roughly 50 humans who can conceivably do his job as well or better than him.

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Patrick Crawley ‏@pecrawleynfl 12s13 seconds ago

One upshot: Bills will be paying Cassel less in 2015 than they would have paid Orton and less than what McCown got with Browns.

While true, they only control him for one year -- same as what would have happened with Orton, of course, unless he would have extended. They could have built in a little more cushion with a FA.

 

That said, this trade says to me that they hope EJ can win the job, and that if he doesn't, they're going to revisit their options in 2016.

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Here's how economics works: "crappy" is relative. He may be at the "crappy" end of the spectrum, but that spectrum includes roughly 50 humans who can conceivably do his job as well or better than him.

I do agree with this. It's hilarious how some fans bash guys who are in the top 1% of their profession. That said, I would be depressed if Cassel is our starter. But he is better than 99% of the people at being a QB.

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Not any "great" QB's out there to choose from. Would still love to land Locker, who I think can be good if he stays healthy. I would say that perhaps the Bills like EJ (he did have some game winning drives his rookie year, then regressed terribly w/ Marrone and Hackett). At any rate, we needed another QB with experience in the NFL who won't loose us games in case of injury. Hopefully Locker comes on the 10th. It's also fun seeing the Bills on the NFL network every day.

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While true, they only control him for one year -- same as what would have happened with Orton, of course, unless he would have extended. They could have built in a little more cushion with a FA.

 

That said, this trade says to me that they hope EJ can win the job, and that if he doesn't, they're going to revisit their options in 2016.

Agreed. If it is a true fair competition about EJ can't beat him out, then I'll be ready to move on.

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That pick is essentially a 4th (though compensatory picks need to be factored).

 

Speaking of compensatory picks, I'm starting to wonder if that's a consideration in some of these deals. Hughes might put us in line to get pretty good compensation (relatively speaking) while signing a Locker/Hoyer/Moore would have been a hit in the formula.

 

 

 

Back on topic to Cassel, I see him as the babysitter to push EJ but be a guy willing to coach him up as well. I'm thinking we're leaning Petty or Grayson in round 2.

Very astute post re: compensatory picks. If we sign free agents, we lose possible Comp Picks. By trading for a RB & a QB, we keep our possible 3rd round CP for losing Hughes (if he leaves). Having a 2nd, 2 thirds, & 2 4ths doesn't sound too bad. Methinks Whaley has a plan.

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Beggars can't be choosers. Bills fans want them to land a top 5 QB (So do I) but it will not happen. Look how many first round QBs have failed. Maybe this is why so many teams are dialing back the need for a throwing QB and concentrating on the running game. Cassel is an average QB who will win some games for you. If the Defense improves from last seasons great performance, this will be moot in December. I think this is the year the Bills make the playoffs.

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The first round is FAR, far different than the second round as far as talent goes.

The second round is far different than the third round as far as talent goes.

The third round is different from the second.

The fourth round is pretty far away from the third.

 

Once you get to the fifth round, there is very little difference from then to the seventh and even the top UDFA. They are all players with gaping holes in their resume or numbers or experience or character or other things. If you look at the 5th round from any given year, there are not a lot of good or even decent players. Most are out of the league in a year or two. The difference between a 5th and a 6th rounder in this draft is very small.

 

 

I agree with you in theory, though I tend to look at it more in tiers.

 

In every draft there's usually between 5-10 players that everyone agrees is the cream of the crop.

 

When you get into the mid teens the guys really aren't all that different than guys who go in the 30s/40s, it usually comes down to team need or guys having red flags.

 

The end of the 2nd through to the end of the 3rd/top of the 4th is the next tier. (Guys you are still hoping to be starters but at least are expected to make the team and contribute).

 

Then you are into scratch-off lotto ticket territory.

 

 

Typically it's viewed to be a successful draft if you get 3 starters and 2-3 other contributors.

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While true, they only control him for one year -- same as what would have happened with Orton, of course, unless he would have extended. They could have built in a little more cushion with a FA.

 

That said, this trade says to me that they hope EJ can win the job, and that if he doesn't, they're going to revisit their options in 2016.

 

strategy must be either to start EJ, or perhaps sign Cassel to another few years. I wouldn't mind the latter. His price is low. Buy now, if he works out, great, if not, solid backup.

Beggars can't be choosers. Bills fans want them to land a top 5 QB (So do I) but it will not happen. Look how many first round QBs have failed. Maybe this is why so many teams are dialing back the need for a throwing QB and concentrating on the running game. Cassel is an average QB who will win some games for you. If the Defense improves from last seasons great performance, this will be moot in December. I think this is the year the Bills make the playoffs.

 

this is a great post. Only a handful of "great" QB's like Rodgers, Brees, Big Ben, etc. Unless you have one of those, and/or Andrew Luck in the draft class, you need a plan to win. The Bills have a plan that has worked for teams in the past. Great D, solid QB play and great skill players around him. I think we get a OL in FA and resign Hughes, and then draft more OL in 2nd (assuming we still have it).

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I do agree with this. It's hilarious how some fans bash guys who are in the top 1% of their profession. That said, I would be depressed if Cassel is our starter. But he is better than 99% of the people at being a QB.

 

Unless the greatest QB in history plummets to the sixth round again, and he finds himself in a Bills uniform come August, I wouldn't expect Manuel, Cassel, Locker or any other "available" QB to average more than 25 passes per game in Roman's system. Thus, I do not share your trepidation if Cassel is the week one starter. I honestly don't think it'll make that much of a difference, one way, or another.

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I think the CBS take is sober:

 

"But we've seen him [Cassell] succeed in a similar situation and given the incredibly weak options out there, this was the best possible realistic move the Bills could make to set themselves up to win now without compromising the future."

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I agree with you in theory, though I tend to look at it more in tiers.

 

In every draft there's usually between 5-10 players that everyone agrees is the cream of the crop.

 

When you get into the mid teens the guys really aren't all that different than guys who go in the 30s/40s, it usually comes down to team need or guys having red flags.

 

The end of the 2nd through to the end of the 3rd/top of the 4th is the next tier. (Guys you are still hoping to be starters but at least are expected to make the team and contribute).

 

Then you are into scratch-off lotto ticket territory.

 

 

Typically it's viewed to be a successful draft if you get 3 starters and 2-3 other contributors.

Right, which is why the 5th for Cassell in exchange for a 6th is nothing. :beer:

 

I agree with you except the last line. When you're a crappy team you expect that. When you are a good team you may get one starter and 2-3 contributors. We have a good roster. Even our second round pick may not be a starter, unless we, say, don't get a TE in FA and use our #2 on one, and he still may not beat out Chandler for the starting position.

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Unless the greatest QB in history plummets to the sixth round again, and he finds himself in a Bills uniform come August, I wouldn't expect Manuel, Cassel, Locker or any other "available" QB to average more than 25 passes per game in Roman's system. Thus, I do not share your trepidation if Cassel is the week one starter. I honestly don't think it'll make that much of a difference, one way, or another.

I just think the upside of a Manuel or Locker is so much higher than Cassel. Cassel is what he is. If he reaches his max, we may be able to sneak into the playoffs. That's pretty much it. It's Orton Part 2.

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still could, i suppose. this could be the "in case we miss out on the other FA option" insurance.

Right. I do wonder how much they want to invest in the position. Logistically speaking, I also don't know how the salary cap works if you've got two $5MM / year QBs and intend to cut one before the year opens. Can you carry an "over cap" roster into camp and trim it down by season's beginning, or do you always have to remain under?

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