What are EJ's chances?

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

lets not forget that we should credit JJ Watt for single handedly winning 4 other games for his team last year. 1 was against Luck.

Exactly. Whenever Texans fans brag that they beat us, my only reply is "We were the better overall team. The Texans didn't beat us. Ryan Fitzpatrick definitely didn't beat us. We beat them. We lost to JJ Watt."

[FireChan]

Some of EJs detractors are overanalyzing his game to the point that they could never do with any other young QB because of the team he plays for. As if his struggles somehow reveal flaws fatal to his potential and are unique to him. When you look at him within his peer group (other QBs early in their careers) he doesn't look to be behind at all. I have him in the 20 to 40% chance at a long term Bills QB only because I am not so certain how the new staff views him. If they commit to him I'd put his chances at 70% or higher of succeeding on a Joe Flacco level.

 

When I rewatch plays that I initially thought were ones where EJ screwed up I come away thinking that my intial assessment was wrong. For instance, the overthrow to Sammy in the Texans game where Sammy could only get one hand on the ball was actually a pattern where Sammy almost collided with a defender and had to take evasive action, break stride and redirect his pattern. I would guess that this would easily cost him two steps toward the ball.

 

In the SD game, the dig route to Sammy that came in at his shoetops was actually tipped by Kendall Reyes who was driving Pears right into EJ's lap as he swiped at the release point. The last int thrown in the Houston game was an egregious nocall of a defensive foul on Woods that occurred over 15 yards. It started out as an illegal contact and became what would have been a blocking foul in basketball and is PI in the NFL.

 

In 8 of EJ's 14 starts, he had a tQBR over 50. This is actually a decent % for a young QB. Tannehill has been at 50% for each of his three seasons. Flacco was at 50% over his first 32 games and Bradford and Locker are at 42% for their careers. In a direct assault to "he gives us the best chance to win" thinking, Kyle Orton hit the 50 tQBR threshold in only 4 of his 12 games in 2014. When looking at this stat in a game by game basis, you see how two QBs can have similar overall ratings but can get them by different means. There are those that have a majority of poor perfromances with an overall rating skewed by a few outstanding games whereas others can have a majority of decent games skewed by a few horrendous games. EJ is in the latter group which I take as a good sign.

 

IMO, all this is to say that the magnitude of EJ's poor play has been largely over magnified, he has played at a "give my team a chance to win" level more often than than most think and he is likely to become more proficient at his job because that's what human beings with raw ability and good character tend to do as they gain more experience.

You're correct, but I think you're missing the point. It was clear that EJ was getting another shot after his first ten games his rookie season. But it was his play in his second season that got him yanked, not his play in his rookie year.

 

And while you can say, "hey, this reciever got bumped," there are enough misfires and shows of no confidence on tape that it doesn't matter.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

You're correct, but I think you're missing the point. It was clear that EJ was getting another shot after his first ten games his rookie season. But it was his play in his second season that got him yanked, not his play in his rookie year.

 

And while you can say, "hey, this reciever got bumped," there are enough misfires and shows of no confidence on tape that it doesn't matter.

That is pure speculation by you and your fellow detractors. Repeating it over and over won't make it true.

 

Marrone stated a number of times he wanted to develop EJ and not play him. Also Saint Doug threw Nate under the bus.

 

It’s the offense, obviously, and head coach Doug Marrone tried to head off criticism of offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett for that unit’s shortcomings on Thursday. --Those are things that I would talk with Nathaniel about,” Marrone said

 

The quarterback issues have been a challenge, although it’s hard to completely separate EJ Manuel’s failure to develop in his second season from the job done by the person in charge of the offense.

Even with C.J. Spiller’s injury, it’s also hard to explain how one of the league’s best rushing attacks from last season is now averaging a toothless 97.5 yards per game.

None of that appears to have Hackett on thin ice in Buffalo, but it’s hard to come up with explanations other than the offense for why the Bills’ playoff drought could extend another season.

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/12/19/doug-marrone-blame-me-not-nathaniel-hackett-for-offensive-struggles/

[FireChan]

That is pure speculation by you and your fellow detractors. Repeating it over and over won't make it true.

 

Marrone stated a number of times he wanted to develop EJ and not play him. Also Saint Doug threw Nate under the bus.

 

Its the offense, obviously, and head coach Doug Marrone tried to head off criticism of offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett for that units shortcomings on Thursday. --Those are things that I would talk with Nathaniel about, Marrone said

 

The quarterback issues have been a challenge, although its hard to completely separate EJ Manuels failure to develop in his second season from the job done by the person in charge of the offense.

Even with C.J. Spillers injury, its also hard to explain how one of the leagues best rushing attacks from last season is now averaging a toothless 97.5 yards per game.

None of that appears to have Hackett on thin ice in Buffalo, but its hard to come up with explanations other than the offense for why the Bills playoff drought could extend another season.

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/12/19/doug-marrone-blame-me-not-nathaniel-hackett-for-offensive-struggles/

Do you think he wanted to "develop EJ and not play him" because he was playing really well? Do those issues not seem attached to you?

 

That was Whaley's plan the second EJ got drafted btw.

Edited March 3, 2015 by FireChan

[San-O]

40 - 60 % of the people think E.J. has a 50 % chance of leading the Buffalo Bills to the playoffs in 2015???

 

Who are these people? Seriously?

 

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Do you think he wanted to "develop EJ and not play him" because he was playing really well? Do those issues not seem attached to you?

 

That was Whaley's plan the second EJ got drafted btw.

and who failed to do that? Saint Doug Marrone.

 

Why do you think Marrone and Whaley got into a shouting match? well IIRC it was Marrone doing the shouting.

[FireChan]

and who failed to do that? Saint Doug Marrone.

 

Why do you think Marrone and Whaley got into a shouting match? well IIRC it was Marrone doing the shouting.

Who failed to do what? Do you even know what you are arguing?

[Beerball]

I can't keep up. 65% he's the guy. 90% we make the playoffs.

teams have made the playoffs in spite of the QB

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

teams have made the playoffs in spite of the QB

We just need our Trent Dilfer.

[Bocephuz]

40% - 60% assuming that Rex/ Roman install the same kind of read option offense that Kaepernick ran in San Fran. EJ has some similar characteristics when compared to Kaepernick

• Strong Arm - not quite as strong as CK .. but EJ certainly can zip it if he has the presence of mind to just let it go
• Mobility - EJ is not going to bust a 60 yard TD run anytime soon but he is certainly athletic enough to run for first down or two and provide enough of a threat to make the read option work

 

I would say that it's doubtful that EJ will ever be aggressive enough to be a top level QB.. however.. I think it likely that he could produce at a Kaepernick level.. which was good enough to get the 49ers to NFC Championship game and Super Bowl

Edited March 3, 2015 by Bocephuz

[BillsFanM.D.]

teams have made the playoffs in spite of the QB

 

I clarified this above. I 'couldn't keep up' with all the EJ is a franchise/EJ is a starter/EJ is a nice guy polls. The numbers were my predictions to the two questions.

 

I think there's a 65% chance EJ solidifies himself as our starter this year and continues for the foreseeable future. I think this team (with all it's other talents and new coach) has about a 90% chance to make the playoffs next year...with EJ or some vet they bring in. A true game manager should get us to the playoffs.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Who failed to do what? Do you even know what you are arguing?

for the betterment of this site please ignore my posts as it seems you (a) fail to comprehend what I post and or (b) choose to argue for the sake of arguing because I don't agree with you. The same applies the rest of your merry band of Musketeers,

[Big Gun]

as I mentioned you don't need to be a Franchise QB to get this team to the playoffs.

 

The feeling may be that EJ is better than KO and thus make a WC at least.

Only in your twisted world. Talk about saying something so much you start to believe it's true!

[TheFunPolice]

I put it at 10%

 

EJ lacks the most important traits: leadership and fire.

 

Not "quiet intensity fire" but "lead aggressive alpha male types into battle" fire. He's also not a very polished passer.

 

Take Fitzpatrick. He is ALL leadership, fire, heart. Guys would follow him anywhere. He isn't all that talented a passer but he is still around starting games after all these years in the league. Why? He would run through a wall to get a first down.

 

When I look at EJ I see a nice, smart kid who isn't a very accurate or polished passer and doesn't feel comfortable being the "rah rah" type. That's not a good combo.

[Beef Jerky]

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

I put it at 10%

 

EJ lacks the most important traits: leadership and fire.

 

Not "quiet intensity fire" but "lead aggressive alpha male types into battle" fire. He's also not a very polished passer.

 

Take Fitzpatrick. He is ALL leadership, fire, heart. Guys would follow him anywhere. He isn't all that talented a passer but he is still around starting games after all these years in the league. Why? He would run through a wall to get a first down.

 

When I look at EJ I see a nice, smart kid who isn't a very accurate or polished passer and doesn't feel comfortable being the "rah rah" type. That's not a good combo.

I honestly miss Fitz. He might not have had the arm strength, but he gave it his all, every game. He wouldn't have slid short on the first down like certain other QBs that were on our roster last season that are now "retired."

[Beef Jerky]

I honestly miss Fitz. He might not have had the arm strength, but he gave it his all, every game. He wouldn't have slid short on the first down like certain other QBs that were on our roster last season that are now "retired."

No thanks Fitz would have lost a couple of games the Bills were able to win, b.c in close games Fitz like to turn the ball over.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Only in your twisted world. Talk about saying something so much you start to believe it's true!

what does this poll indicate?

 

I am not alone in thinking the team can get to the playoffs with EJ.

the indicated 40-60% is a far cry from the factual 3 to 10% the Bills had last season

 

No thanks Fitz would have lost a couple of games the Bills were able to win, b.c in close games Fitz like to turn the ball over.

 

 

No thanks Fitz would have lost a couple of games the Bills were able to win, b.c in close games Fitz like to turn the ball over.

Orton or Fitz could NOT have scrambled out of those would be sacks

Edited March 3, 2015 by BillsFan-4-Ever

[Beerball]

Orton or Fitz could have scrambled out of those would be sacks

I'm confused...Orton could scramble?

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

DOH did I do it again?? typo

fixed it !!

Edited March 3, 2015 by BillsFan-4-Ever