What are EJ's chances?

[NoSaint]

I did it because the other two polls, instead of even discussing EJ's chances, the threads are just about how black and white the poll was. I made this because it gives room for a maybe.

I like the format a lot more. So much of our discussion focused on yes or no instead of odds and qualifiers.... I almost started a thread asking people to post where they valued a player, where they think the market is and whether they'd make the move because I was getting tired of "costs too much" or "can't pass him up" with no discussion of what that means for various guys.

[BuffaloHokie13]

15%, 35% are my odds respectively

[NoSaint]

15%, 35% are my odds respectively

Right around where I fall. He's a long shot but we might not even need good qb play to contend for the wild card. Not like we were far off last year with our poor qb play and erratic coaching.

Edited March 2, 2015 by NoSaint

[Dorkington]

And theoretically we have an easier schedule this year, plus better coaching. EJ could stink it up, and we could still back into the playoffs... not like that that is a desirable performance from our QB...

[Kirby Jackson]

I'm 0-20% & 40-60%. The Bills are in a good place outside of the QB position.

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

I'm 0-20% & 40-60%. The Bills are in a good place outside of the QB position.

So basically you're saying we have a decent chance of making it, in spite of EJ?

[Kirby Jackson]

So basically you're saying we have a decent chance of making it, in spite of EJ?

Yes, I think that this is a playoff team despite who is under center. If they can get Flacco level play they can contend for a spot in the Super Bowl. The AFC is weak.

[The Wiz]

Where's the "wait and see" option?

 

I went 40-60 even though I'm closer 30-50 on him being long term (at this point). 60-80 on the playoffs.

Edited March 2, 2015 by The Wiz

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

Where's the "wait and see" option?

 

I went 40-60 even though I'm closer 30-50 on him being long term (at this point). 60-80 on the playoffs.

This is the most common sense answer. This is TBD we're talking about here. But the poll is if you were to guess, how sure are you right now.

[fansince88]

 

True leaders don't make excuses and blame others for their mistakes. It said a lot last year when EJ wasn't voted a team captain.

 

I gave him a 50/50 shot at making it. He needs to be less timid than he showed last year. He said he would be after getting benched but he really needs to show this early to his teammates to gain trust and respect.

 

Because it's March 2nd and there is nothing else to talk relating to the Bills. If you have a better topic lets have it.

Sarcasm meter is off?

[johnwalter]

put me down for 20% - 40% on both

[The Wiz]

This is the most common sense answer. This is TBD we're talking about here. But the poll is if you were to guess, how sure are you right now.

Isn't that the point of the percentage scales that were give for each item?

[Tampa Bob]

For those of us who like to make a decision and stick with it without a cushion, I don't want to vote in your wishy-washy poll. It is 0%. I don't want a useless 20% cushion.

 

The other poll that you are clearly upset with was so much better. It's just a stupid poll so try being decisive...isn't that something we all want from EJ?

[Rocky Landing]

It seems odd to me that posters give us a better chance to get to the playoffs with EJ in 2015, than EJ developing into our long-term starter. Do people think that he has already developed into a decent QB? Most of the posts that defend him opine that he hasn't been given time to develop. But, even if he starts the season a much better QB than when he was benched, I would give us a very slim chance of taking the division, which, like it or not, makes getting into the playoffs a long shot- 20%, at best.

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

It seems odd to me that posters give us a better chance to get to the playoffs with EJ in 2015, than EJ developing into our long-term starter. Do people think that he has already developed into a decent QB? Most of the posts that defend him opine that he hasn't been given time to develop. But, even if he starts the season a much better QB than when he was benched, I would give us a very slim chance of taking the division, which, like it or not, makes getting into the playoffs a long shot- 20%, at best.

I think they're saying that if EJ is the starter, despite how bad they think he is, there's enough talent around him on both sides of the ball.

[JESSEFEFFER]

Some of EJs detractors are overanalyzing his game to the point that they could never do with any other young QB because of the team he plays for. As if his struggles somehow reveal flaws fatal to his potential and are unique to him. When you look at him within his peer group (other QBs early in their careers) he doesn't look to be behind at all. I have him in the 20 to 40% chance at a long term Bills QB only because I am not so certain how the new staff views him. If they commit to him I'd put his chances at 70% or higher of succeeding on a Joe Flacco level.

 

When I rewatch plays that I initially thought were ones where EJ screwed up I come away thinking that my intial assessment was wrong. For instance, the overthrow to Sammy in the Texans game where Sammy could only get one hand on the ball was actually a pattern where Sammy almost collided with a defender and had to take evasive action, break stride and redirect his pattern. I would guess that this would easily cost him two steps toward the ball.

 

In the SD game, the dig route to Sammy that came in at his shoetops was actually tipped by Kendall Reyes who was driving Pears right into EJ's lap as he swiped at the release point. The last int thrown in the Houston game was an egregious nocall of a defensive foul on Woods that occurred over 15 yards. It started out as an illegal contact and became what would have been a blocking foul in basketball and is PI in the NFL.

 

In 8 of EJ's 14 starts, he had a tQBR over 50. This is actually a decent % for a young QB. Tannehill has been at 50% for each of his three seasons. Flacco was at 50% over his first 32 games and Bradford and Locker are at 42% for their careers. In a direct assault to "he gives us the best chance to win" thinking, Kyle Orton hit the 50 tQBR threshold in only 4 of his 12 games in 2014. When looking at this stat in a game by game basis, you see how two QBs can have similar overall ratings but can get them by different means. There are those that have a majority of poor perfromances with an overall rating skewed by a few outstanding games whereas others can have a majority of decent games skewed by a few horrendous games. EJ is in the latter group which I take as a good sign.

 

IMO, all this is to say that the magnitude of EJ's poor play has been largely over magnified, he has played at a "give my team a chance to win" level more often than than most think and he is likely to become more proficient at his job because that's what human beings with raw ability and good character tend to do as they gain more experience.

[bananathumb]

Good poll and the 40-60% majority seems right. There are very few people who can become good NFL QBs, but EJ hasn't been given much of a chance yet, so his odds are as good as any first-round pick...about 50-50.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Some of EJs detractors are overanalyzing his game to the point that they could never do with any other young QB because of the team he plays for. As if his struggles somehow reveal flaws fatal to his potential and are unique to him. When you look at him within his peer group (other QBs early in their careers) he doesn't look to be behind at all. I have him in the 20 to 40% chance at a long term Bills QB only because I am not so certain how the new staff views him. If they commit to him I'd put his chances at 70% or higher of succeeding on a Joe Flacco level.

 

When I rewatch plays that I initially thought were ones where EJ screwed up I come away thinking that my intial assessment was wrong. For instance, the overthrow to Sammy in the Texans game where Sammy could only get one hand on the ball was actually a pattern where Sammy almost collided with a defender and had to take evasive action, break stride and redirect his pattern. I would guess that this would easily cost him two steps toward the ball.

 

In the SD game, the dig route to Sammy that came in at his shoetops was actually tipped by Kendall Reyes who was driving Pears right into EJ's lap as he swiped at the release point. The last int thrown in the Houston game was an egregious nocall of a defensive foul on Woods that occurred over 15 yards. It started out as an illegal contact and became what would have been a blocking foul in basketball and is PI in the NFL.

 

In 8 of EJ's 14 starts, he had a tQBR over 50. This is actually a decent % for a young QB. Tannehill has been at 50% for each of his three seasons. Flacco was at 50% over his first 32 games and Bradford and Locker are at 42% for their careers. In a direct assault to "he gives us the best chance to win" thinking, Kyle Orton hit the 50 tQBR threshold in only 4 of his 12 games in 2014. When looking at this stat in a game by game basis, you see how two QBs can have similar overall ratings but can get them by different means. There are those that have a majority of poor perfromances with an overall rating skewed by a few outstanding games whereas others can have a majority of decent games skewed by a few horrendous games. EJ is in the latter group which I take as a good sign.

 

IMO, all this is to say that the magnitude of EJ's poor play has been largely over magnified, he has played at a "give my team a chance to win" level more often than than most think and he is likely to become more proficient at his job because that's what human beings with raw ability and good character tend to do as they gain more experience.

well put :thumbsup:

[The Real Buffalo Joe]

And we were dominating Houston in the first half. We were just running the ball. Ground and pound. Then the 2nd half came. EJ threw the pick 6 to JJ Watt, which really says nothing about EJ's skill, so much as JJ Watt is just that good. IIRC, we only ran the ball like 4 plays in the 2nd half?

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

And we were dominating Houston in the first half. We were just running the ball. Ground and pound. Then the 2nd half came. EJ threw the pick 6 to JJ Watt, which really says nothing about EJ's skill, so much as JJ Watt is just that good. IIRC, we only ran the ball like 4 plays in the 2nd half?

lets not forget that we should credit JJ Watt for single handedly winning 4 other games for his team last year. 1 was against Luck.