GunnerBill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I read on here a lot that the Buffalo Bills undervalue the Quarterback position. As a bald statement I think it is one we pretty much all agree with. We have picked very few mid and late round prospects in recent years - I think it is just Levi Brown with a 7th since Trent Edwards. However, there was a comment some weeks back on the Bills not doing as much as the Patriots to find good Quarterbacks since the 2001 season which ended with the first Superbowl of the Brady era. The accusation, of course, being that they do more than us despite having "their guy." And that got me thinking.... we have spent essentially 4 first round picks on Quarterbacks since 2002 and only Washington in the whole NFL has, that I can see, spent more. The problem is we spent them badly. 1 on a trade for Drew Bledsoe who had one good year before his play declined. 2 on trading back into the first for JP Losman in 2004 (our 2004 and 2005 picks) 1 on EJ Manuel in 2013. But what about other teams? 5 first round picks on QBs since 2002 Washington (3 on RGIII and 1 each one Patrick Ramsey and Jason Campbell) 4 first round picks on QBs since 2002 Cleveland (2 on Quinn, 1 each on Weedon and Manziel) Buffalo (2 on Losman, 1 on Manuel and 1 in trade for Bledsoe) 3 first round QBs since 2002 Jacksonville (Leftwich, Gabbert and Bortles) Baltimore (2 on Boller and 1 on Flacco). 2 first round picks on QBs since 2002 Detroit (Harrington and Stafford) Oakland (Russell and trade for Palmer) Tennessee (Young and Locker) Chicago (Grossman and trade for Cutler) Denver (Cutler and Tebow) NY Giants (Rivers and trade for Manning) Minnesota (Ponder and Bridgewater) A further 14 teams have used 1 first rounder on a Quarterback since 2002. Since 2002 there are, however, 6 teams that have not spent a first round pick on a quarterback. They are: New England (obviously have had Brady) New Orelans (signed Brees in FA) Philadelphia (had McNabb for some of that period who was a 1st rounder and have spent 2 2nd rounders on Kolb and then Foles) Dallas (found a starter as an UFA) Seattle (found a starter in the 3rd round) Kansas City (had spent a 1st round pick the previous year in a trade for Trent Green and then also traded high 2nd round picks for Matt Cassel and Alex Smith) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbossman2 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Teams spend more 1st round picks on QBs when their previous picks didn't pan out so they used another one in an attempt to find a good QB in later years. It is a cycle that is only broken when a team finds/has a solid QB and an look deeper into the draft, pick up a QB in later rounds and take the time to develop them as long as their existing QB wins. Picking a 1st round QB is a crap shoot. Some (not many) pan out (Rivers, Manning to name two) but a lot of them are mediocre or complete busts. It is really hard to know how (or if) a 21 year college QB will adapt to the pro game so it is a real risk to burn a 1st rounder on a QB as I have a sense that the likelihood of a reward doesn't outweigh the risk. Teams are probably better off taking another position in the 1st round and get a QB in later rounds. Although this is a challenge if the team in question has a mediocre (or worse) QB and coaches are getting pressured by ownership and fans to produce a winning team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Bills Fan Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I didnt mind the Bledsoe trade. I would do it again CBF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 We spent 1 first on Losman, we traded Dallas a 2nd, a 5th and a future 1st (that turned into Ware, what an awful trade) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Great stuff gunnerbill!! I tried to do some similar analysis (think its in the Bradford thread) and look at where in the 1st guys were picked that succeeded. I believe that I used 26 teams as the sample group and said that 6 teams are still searching for their opening day starter (Bills, Jets, Bucs, Titans, Texans and Browns). 12 of those 26 franchise guys were top 4 picks (Luck, Cam, Ryan, RGIII, Eli, Rivers, Peyton, Bortles, Palmer, Alex Smith, Bradford, and Stafford). 6 were drafted in round 1 outside of the top 4 (Big Ben, Flacco, Cutler, Bridgewater, Rodgers and Tannehill). 4 were drafted in round 2 (Kaepernick, Dalton, Brees and Carr). 4 were drafted in the 3rd round or later (RW, Romo, Foles and Brady). Over the last 10 years 68.5% of the 1st round QBs taken outside of the top 4 picks (think that was the cutoff) didn't turn into franchise QBs. The point being is that you can put resources into finding a franchise QB but it isn't that easy. Not all of the guys above I believe are franchise guys just opening day starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I didnt mind the Bledsoe trade. I would do it again CBF Agreed though looking back, the fact that a division rival would trade you a QB should be a giant red flag. It was a great trade for 8 games though. We spent 1 first on Losman, we traded Dallas a 2nd, a 5th and a future 1st (that turned into Ware, what an awful trade) The other problem with the Losman pick was he was the 4th qb taken in the first and basically selected because we missed out on Big Ben. You never settle for your 2nd option, much less your 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 (edited) Great stuff gunnerbill!! I tried to do some similar analysis (think its in the Bradford thread) and look at where in the 1st guys were picked that succeeded. I believe that I used 26 teams as the sample group and said that 6 teams are still searching for their opening day starter (Bills, Jets, Bucs, Titans, Texans and Browns). 12 of those 26 franchise guys were top 4 picks (Luck, Cam, Ryan, RGIII, Eli, Rivers, Peyton, Bortles, Palmer, Alex Smith, Bradford, and Stafford). 6 were drafted in round 1 outside of the top 4 (Big Ben, Flacco, Cutler, Bridgewater, Rodgers and Tannehill). 4 were drafted in round 2 (Kaepernick, Dalton, Brees and Carr). 4 were drafted in the 3rd round or later (RW, Romo, Foles and Brady). Over the last 10 years 68.5% of the 1st round QBs taken outside of the top 4 picks (think that was the cutoff) didn't turn into franchise QBs. The point being is that you can put resources into finding a franchise QB but it isn't that easy. Not all of the guys above I believe are franchise guys just opening day starters. Yep, our 15 years of mediocrity is largely due to us not being bad enough to get top 5 picks (It seems we always have a pick between 9 and 12). In addition, since 2000 there have been a lot of squandered 1st round choices, though our drafts have gone much better the last few years. Now I want to check our draft position during that time... We've had 2 top 4 picks since 2001, pick 4 in 2002, and pick 3 in 2011. FWIW Qb's available at pick 4 in the 2002 draft: Patrick Ramsey, Josh McCown, David Garrard, Rohan Davey, Randy Fasani Qb's available at pick 3 in the 2011 draft: Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallett Edited February 24, 2015 by BuffaloHokie13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 And the point was not that teams that pick bad QBs end up picking more 1st rounders more often than teams that get it right 1st time.... that is self evident. The point was more we are not that out of sync really with the other QB desperate teams in terms of 1st round resouces used on the position in recent history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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