Russell Wilson and the Seahawks negotiations (update:signed)

[Jauronimo]

 

If you have a great D the QB is never going to be asked to throw 650 time a year. They give to Lynch and chew up the clock. You are making an inappropriate criticsm.

 

 

See above. He attempts fewer than 420 passes avg per year. He completes 64% of them. If they needed him to thorw as many as Luck or Brees or Ryan, he would have similar numbers. They don't need him to, so why penalize him for doing somehting they don't want him or need him to do?

I don't think A Rodg, Brady, Brees, and Manning have always been needed to blow teams out and put up crazy numbers, but for some reason, those teams that are particularly blessed at the QB position tend to use the tools they have. I find it difficult to believe that Seattle is the anomaly and just chooses not to let Wilson blow our minds so that they can grind out those 4th quarter comebacks.

[The Big Cat]

I don't think A Rodg, Brady, Brees, and Manning have always been needed to blow teams out and put up crazy numbers, but for some reason, those teams that are particularly blessed at the QB position tend to use the tools they have. I find it difficult to believe that Seattle is the anomaly and just chooses not to let Wilson blow our minds so that they can grind out those 4th quarter comebacks.

 

Oh, you know. Those NFL teams who subscribe to the "We'd score more TD's if we wanted to, we just don't want to" philosophy.

Edited June 29, 2015 by The Big Cat

[1billsfan]

I am not usually a big stats guy, but QBR does a pretty good (but certainly not perfect) job of comparing QBs. Here is the 2014 QBs ranked by QBR:

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/stats/expanded

 

Wilson ranks 12th. Without looking at this I'd have ranked him in the 10-12 area. After looking at it, there's maybe one QB ranked ahead of him that I'd rank Wilson above and not a single one below him I'd take over him. I'm looking at the 2014 season and projecting to 2015 only, not looking ahead or considering age and longevity. What really was surprising was how meh the QBs below Wilson are. There's the top 12, some young QBs that teams hope reach that level but haven't yet (and most won't) and then everybody else. Even if Wilson is the 12th best QB in the NFL he's going to get paid because no team want to trade him in for what's below that.

 

People forget that there are really big names out there for the 2016 free agent QB class. I could definitely see the Seahawks slapping a tag on Wilson, getting two 1st round picks, saving their defense by not being on the hook for a gigantic long term deal AND then signing either Rivers or E. Manning to a two year deal. They could then draft a 1st or 2nd rd QB in 2016 to groom behind the veteran. If I'm Seattle I don't like hearing Wilson's demand for being the highest paid player. That's like slapping the hand that gave you the perfect situation to maximize your first big NFL contract. Seattle should get a break on the deal.

 

I almost hope that Seattle ends up trading Wilson to the Browns so that he's really on the hook to prove that he's worth that kind of money. Because there will be no where to hide (see Marshawn plus great defense) there.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

If you have a great D the QB is never going to be asked to throw 650 time a year. They give to Lynch and chew up the clock. You are making an inappropriate criticsm.

 

 

See above. He attempts fewer than 420 passes avg per year. He completes 64% of them. If they needed him to thorw as many as Luck or Brees or Ryan, he would have similar numbers. They don't need him to, so why penalize him for doing somehting they don't want him or need him to do?

Thank you. When he was asked to throw in college, he was great at that, too. Like RGIII great.

[Mr. WEO]

IMO RW is very good at what he does, but he is far from elite.

 

right now he's a Flacco type, good but not elite. Similar to but better than Dilfer. Strong run game and very good defense.

 

So now Flacco and Wilson are similar but beeter than.....Trent Dilfer?

 

 

 

 

in the evaluation of "can he do it," why check it off as a yes, until hes shown he can? we are all speculating on what happens when the roster weakens and he becomes the centerpiece instead of a facilitator for the offense. hes been excellent in the role hes had, but that doesnt mean hes a 12 win qb with a middle of the pack roster. its a question mark, and fair point of debate.

 

We are debating it. I really don't see the obvious weakness in his game that precludes the conclusion he could throw put up stats that are proprtionally in line to a signifcant increase in attempts. It may not have appreaoched the numbers that regular season super stars like Stafford and Ryan put up, but...so what?

[Wayne Cubed]

So now Flacco and Wilson are similar but beeter than.....Trent Dilfer?

 

 

 

 

 

 

We are debating it. I really don't see the obvious weakness in his game that precludes the conclusion he could throw put up stats that are proprtionally in line to a signifcant increase in attempts. It may not have appreaoched the numbers that regular season super stars like Stafford and Ryan put up, but...so what?

 

So if you don't see any weakness in his game that precludes him putting up monster stats, why doesn't he do it? Are the Seahawks just toying with other teams? Why doesn't he attempt more passes? The NFL is a passing league, it's never been better for that, why opt to lean on a running game if Wilson is so capable of carrying a team?

[NoSaint]

So if you don't see any weakness in his game that precludes him putting up monster stats, why doesn't he do it? Are the Seahawks just toying with other teams? Why doesn't he attempt more passes? The NFL is a passing league, it's never been better for that, why opt to lean on a running game if Wilson is so capable of carrying a team?

right. why not score 21 early and grind out the win, instead of waiting to air it out last second?

[sherpa]

You guys are clearly avoiding R. J. Archer.

 

Down on the Seahawks QB depth chart, but dismiss him at your peril.

[Kelly the Dog]

Stats are just one tool to look at: These are the first three years of Luck and Wilson.

 

Career

63.4

9,950

72

26

98.6

Career

58.6

12,957

86

43

86.6

[atlbillsfan1975]

 

So now Flacco and Wilson are similar but beeter than.....Trent Dilfer?

 

 

 

 

 

We are debating it. I really don't see the obvious weakness in his game that precludes the conclusion he could throw put up stats that are proprtionally in line to a signifcant increase in attempts. It may not have appreaoched the numbers that regular season super stars like Stafford and Ryan put up, but...so what?

It is a cheap shot, but did you watch the SB?

RW is a solid QB playing for the perfect HC with a great D and run game.

As we have seen even the great ones can look bad when asked to carry more than their fair share of the load.

Look at Brees last year.

To think RW is a shoe in to be a Rodgers or Brady if he throws 10-15 more times a game is a stretch.

[Kelly the Dog]

To think RW is a shoe in to be a Rodgers or Brady if he throws 10-15 more times a game is a stretch.

 

Please explain why. Seriously.

 

Is he inaccurate? Does he not know how to read defenses? Is he careless? Is he not smart? Does he make poor decisions? Does he panic in the pocket? Does he have a rag arm? Is there one throw he can't make?

 

Aaron Rodgers hadn't even taken the field in his first three years. Brady wasn't close to Wilson in his first three years.

Edited June 29, 2015 by Kelly the Dog

[NoSaint]

 

Stats are just one tool to look at: These are the first three years of Luck and Wilson.

 

if you swapped the rosters around them, what do you think would happen to the numbers? a mere hypothetical.

Please explain why. Seriously.

 

because they are 2 of the greatest of all time, potentially. even among the very very good, few get to that level. does he have a chance? sure thing. has it already happened? i dont think so.

[BuffaloHokie13]

if you swapped the rosters around them, what do you think would happen to the numbers? a mere hypothetical.

I don't know about the numbers, but the Pats* probably have 1 less ring

[The Big Cat]

if you swapped the rosters around them, what do you think would happen to the numbers? a mere hypothetical.

 

because they are 2 of the greatest of all time, potentially. even among the very very good, few get to that level. does he have a chance? sure thing. has it already happened? i dont think so.

 

Luck would be 3/3 in Super Bowls.

[Kelly the Dog]

if you swapped the rosters around them, what do you think would happen to the numbers? a mere hypothetical.

 

because they are 2 of the greatest of all time, potentially. even among the very very good, few get to that level. does he have a chance? sure thing. has it already happened? i dont think so.

I asked for specifics. He's ahead of both of them at this point in his career. Does it automatically mean he will be an all time great? No of course not. But there is nothing at all in his way.

 

IMO, people don't really know a lot about him or the intricacies of his game. He's still learning in the NFL. He's going to get better. He has no weaknesses. I brought this up several times before but there are like 20 different things you look for in a good QB and he is already good to very good or excellent at every single one of them except size, and that doesn't seem to affect him. There is not one quarterback like him. The only two guys like him are Rodgers and Luck, and he can run and scramble better than both of them.

[Jauronimo]

I asked for specifics. He's ahead of both of them at this point in his career. Does it automatically mean he will be an all time great? No of course not. But there is nothing at all in his way.

 

IMO, people don't really know a lot about him or the intricacies of his game. He's still learning in the NFL. He's going to get better. He has no weaknesses. I brought this up several times before but there are like 20 different things you look for in a good QB and he is already good to very good or excellent at every single one of them except size, and that doesn't seem to affect him. There is not one quarterback like him. The only two guys like him are Rodgers and Luck, and he can run and scramble better than both of them.

Hasn't the debate over the last few pages been whether RW is currently elite rather than is he going to be elite?

[mannc]

 

 

He is elite. This is too easy.

 

Because his team doesn't need to have him throw 50 times a game doesn't take away from his elite performance. He is a play creator--you should watch him. He's got excellent mobility, vision and is calm out of the pocket. He's extremely intelligent and knows where everyone is.

 

As for never playing from behind, he has 10 4th Q comebacks in only 3 years--more than Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck. He is also ahead of Rodgers, Luck in game winning drives----for their careers.

Thank you. I am a big believer in football statistics, but wrt QBs they can be misleading, simply because there are so many ways to slice and dice them. If you watch Wilson on a regular basis, it's pretty clear that he's a great quarterback and that the Seahawks would be nothing more than a good team without him. As Kelly points out, if you were starting a team from scratch today, there is no one you would take over RW, except Luck or possibly Rogers. Edited June 29, 2015 by mannc

[Kelly the Dog]

Hasn't the debate over the last few pages been whether RW is currently elite rather than is he going to be elite?

 

Yes but the post you quoted from me was a specific answer to another poster.

 

I think he is easily elite already and he is going to get better. The question is whether or not he will reach Brady and Rodgers status. No one knows that. It will be very tough to do. But there is nothing stopping him. He's further ahead of both of them at this point, he has no weakness to his game and he is a very smart, and tough and tireless worker and highly competitive. He was far better than both of them in college too.

Edited June 29, 2015 by Kelly the Dog

[Doc]

That the Hawks' defense gave up an average of 15 PPG and Russ needed to lead 10 4th quarter comebacks says the offense isn't doing their job for 3 quarters.

[Alphadawg7]

No ones arguing he had a bad season here. But it's hard to argue he hit the ground at that running pace.

 

2-1 and his defense held the opponent to 7 and 12 points in the two wins with Wilson getting 150 and 130 yards (with 24 being the fail Mary to seal the second win). A nationally televised game that had him 9-20 for 106 yards prior to the final play which could've easily put him 9-21 with an interception and a 1-2 record.

 

With some questions swirling after that lackluster performance which was the first time many watched him about whether he could waste a great defense... week four had 3 ints and a month high 160 yards.

 

Honestly, it's bizarre to me that you are trying to argue he didn't stumble at all out if the gate. Love the guy all you want- I think he's a very good player. But your allowed to admit he hasn't been perfect every week forever. He had a bad month. that there was chatter regarding whether he was the right guy up til mid season is accurate. After the bye he went on an absolute tear and never looked back.

 

It feels like you are emotionally invested in defending the guy.

 

Not at all, i just literally joined this thread when I had responded to your post. I just disagree he was granted a longer leash is all. The kid beat everyone out despite no expectation to even play and I don't feel he did anything to jeopardize that. Again, 2-1 with a 4:1 TD/INT ratio to start an NFL career, including games against expected Super Bowl contenders, both of which were W's isn't the kind of start that to me puts a rookie QB's job in jeopardy. You can talk about the comp %, yet in game 2 he had a 75% comp rate.

 

What I am saying is that when a team commits to a rookie QB, the start he put up was more than expected and more than acceptable. Yes, his comp % was not great in 2 of those 3 games, but he did enough to get the job done and threw TD's when it mattered. Thats what you build off of...not bench.

 

My honest stance here isn't just about Russell, its about the unbelievable expectations in modern day NFL put on rookie QB's. Most organizations would kill for a rookie QB to come in and beat out guys expected to have the job, start 2-1 when he is at his most raw, and protect the ball to a tune of 4-1 TD/INT, and beat 2 expected SB contenders. But now that is being discussed here as if he got some special leash because that wasnt good enough...thats what I find crazy.

 

And adding to it, the kid put up probably the greatest rookie season for a QB we have seen in a long time, if not ever. He's had a start to his career better than just about any QB in history in just about every category that matters in his first 3 years, including 2 Super Bowl berths and a Super Bowl championship to a team that has rarely sniffed a deep playoff run.

 

The 3 years pre wilson: Avg 6.33 Wins (and if you go back 4 years it drops to 5.75 win avg)

5 wins

7 wins

7 wins

 

The 3 years with Wilson: Avg 12 Wins

11 wins

13 wins

12 wins

 

They have literally doubled their win rate since Wilson joined the team. Now is Wilson the only reason, no Football is a team sport...but he has had an undeniable massive impact on this team. Seattle is literally crazy if they think they can trade him and replace him easily with someone who can have similar results. I would take Wilson over Brees, Peyton, Luck, Cutler, Flacco, etc all making ridiculous money. In fact, the only QB I would definitively take today over him is Aaron Rodgers. Thats it...and thats because I happen to think Rodgers is the best QB in football right now, and will be in the discussion as best ever when his career is done.

 

That means I would take him over Luck...until Luck proves he's can get it done in the playoffs, he's not a guy I take over Wilson. Luck in his 3 playoff years has yet to have a postseason with more TDs than INTs...not one. He has 9 TDs and 12 INTs in 3 playoff years. He's never had a post season passer rating over 76 while Wilson has never had one under 90 in their 3 year careers. In fact Wilson has only had one post season under 100.

 

So I don't know what else Wilson needs to prove. This kid is special, has been since he was a rookie...pay the man. If not, I hope we do.

Edited June 29, 2015 by Alphadawg7