2013 NFL Draft - Top Ten

[metzelaars_lives]

Guess we have a different thought in what the difference between good and great is. Agree to disagree.

Find me a worse top ten NFL draft in the last 20 years. Granted it's still a bit early.

[C.Biscuit97]

Find me a worse top ten NFL draft in the last 20 years. Granted it's still a bit early.

The 2005 draft is pretty bad and was awful until Alex Smith improved in the last 3 years. Alex Smith, Ronnie Brown, Cadallic Williams, Pacman, Cedric Benson, Troy Williamson, Antrel Rolle, fat receiver Mike Williams, and Carlos Rogers. That's pretty bad. Especially when Aaron Rodgers and DeMarcus Ware went later in the draft.

 

As much as people pretend to be experts, the draft is a crapshoot.

[dave mcbride]

I was just talking football with my brother and had to check the 2013 NFL draft top ten.

 

Check it out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NFL_draft

 

Not really one of them is a stud. Most are average or washouts. Yes, you cannot gauge a draft for a few years and there are some decent players here but the top ten?

 

1 1 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan MAC ^[9]

1 2 Jacksonville Jaguars Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M SEC

1 3 Miami Dolphins Dion Jordan DE Oregon Pac-12 from Oakland ^{[R1 - 1]}

1 4 Philadelphia Eagles Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma Big 12

1 5 Detroit Lions Ezekiel Ansah DE BYU Ind.

1 6 Cleveland Browns Barkevious Mingo DE LSU SEC

1 7 Arizona Cardinals Jonathan Cooper G North Carolina ACC

1 8 St. Louis Rams Tavon Austin WR West Virginia Big 12 from Buffalo ^{[R1 - 2]}

1 9 New York Jets Dee Milliner CB Alabama SEC

1 10 Tennessee Titans Chance Warmack G Alabama SEC

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NFL_draft

 

That's why you make the Watkins trade.

Check this out: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000162810/article/2013-nfl-draft-class-worst-in-a-decade-exec-says

 

Going through the picks:

 

Ansah has been very good. In fact, in his first preseason game he picked off a pass by Sanchez and returned it for a TD!

 

According to Pro Football Focus, Lane Johnson was a first team all NFL player this season (based on PFF's metrics).

 

Chance Warmack was a middling rookie (ranked 49th out of 81 guards), but he has improved and played well at the end of the 2014 season: http://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/nfl/titans/2014/12/21/chance-warmack-shows-improvement-titans/20734599/. He appears to have a bright future and looks like a good pick.

 

Luke Joeckel really struggled in his rookie season but was a reasonably solid player last season. Hardly a dominator though.

 

Tavon Austin has sub-Roscoe Parrish numbers, but fumbles more than Roscoe. A disappointment despite the (very) occasional explosive play.

 

Fisher, Jordan, and Millner have all really disappointed.

 

So has Cooper; he missed his rookie season and only started two games this year (he played in 10). He sat out the final games of the season and the Cardinals playoff game.

 

Mingo had 2 sacks in 15 games this past season. And he was drafted to rush the passer!

 

All in all, a pretty horrible top ten. Three players are good by this point (Ansah, Lane Johnson, and Warmack), but none are superstars at their position.

[C.Biscuit97]

Check this out: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000162810/article/2013-nfl-draft-class-worst-in-a-decade-exec-says

 

Going through the picks:

 

Ansah has been very good. In fact, in his first preseason game he picked off a pass by Sanchez and returned it for a TD!

 

According to Pro Football Focus, Lane Johnson was a first team all NFL player this season (based on PFF's metrics).

 

Chance Warmack was a middling rookie (ranked 49th out of 81 guards), but he has improved and played well at the end of the 2014 season: http://www.tennessean.com/story/sports/nfl/titans/2014/12/21/chance-warmack-shows-improvement-titans/20734599/. He appears to have a bright future and looks like a good pick.

 

Luke Joeckel really struggled in his rookie season but was a reasonably solid player last season. Hardly a dominator though.

 

Tavon Austin has sub-Roscoe Parrish numbers, but fumbles more than Roscoe. A disappointment despite the (very) occasional explosive play.

 

Fisher, Jordan, and Millner have all really disappointed.

 

So has Cooper; he missed his rookie season and only started two games this year (he played in 10). He sat out the final games of the season and the Cardinals playoff game.

 

Mingo had 2 sacks in 15 games this past season. And he was drafted to rush the passer!

 

All in all, a pretty horrible top ten. Three players are good by this point (Ansah, Lane Johnson, and Warmack), but none are superstars at their position.

Picking a G in the top 10 is all kinds of stupid.

[dave mcbride]

Picking a G in the top 10 is all kinds of stupid.

I disagree. If a guy can dominate and the other options aren't great, why not? Given the inside penetration that has become such a pervasive goal in today's NFL, good guards are very valuable.

 

Zach Martin was worthy of a top ten pick.

Edited February 13, 2015 by dave mcbride

[John from Riverside]

I was just talking football with my brother and had to check the 2013 NFL draft top ten.

 

Check it out.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NFL_draft

 

Not really one of them is a stud. Most are average or washouts. Yes, you cannot gauge a draft for a few years and there are some decent players here but the top ten?

 

1 1 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan MAC ^[9]

1 2 Jacksonville Jaguars Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M SEC

1 3 Miami Dolphins Dion Jordan DE Oregon Pac-12 from Oakland ^{[R1 - 1]}

1 4 Philadelphia Eagles Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma Big 12

1 5 Detroit Lions Ezekiel Ansah DE BYU Ind.

1 6 Cleveland Browns Barkevious Mingo DE LSU SEC

1 7 Arizona Cardinals Jonathan Cooper G North Carolina ACC

1 8 St. Louis Rams Tavon Austin WR West Virginia Big 12 from Buffalo ^{[R1 - 2]}

1 9 New York Jets Dee Milliner CB Alabama SEC

1 10 Tennessee Titans Chance Warmack G Alabama SEC

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NFL_draft

 

That's why you make the Watkins trade.

Kelly,

 

Some folks just dont get it...its fun to pull out the crystal ball and say "management is stupid...they should have done this"

 

Management doesnt HAVE that crystal ball....they have to make their decisions based on the information they have on hand.......and Sammy Watkins was one of 3 supposid cant miss players in that draft (if there even IS such a thing just look at who went NUMBER 1 OVERALL

 

I commend Doug Whaley for what he did. He had conviction about this player and he stood by it. History will tell us whether he was correct or not but Sammy Watkins has every tool you are looking for to be great

[C.Biscuit97]

I disagree. If a guy can dominate and the other options aren't great, why not? Given the inside penetration that has become such a pervasive goal in today's NFL, good guards are very valuable.

 

Zach Martin was worthy of a top ten pick.

He is the exception IMO. He also plays on a loaded offensive line. G is a dependent position. If the guys next to you suck, it doesn't matter how good the G is. JMO but I would never draft a G high or pay major money. They can be found later in the draft.

[eball]

Yeah, but according to Saint Doug, people don't really know how young Joeckel really is.

[YoloinOhio]

Yeah, but according to Saint Doug, people don't really know how young Joeckel really is.

Great point. This buys him years of mediocrity until people realize his age. #analytics Edited February 13, 2015 by YoloinOhio

[Beef Jerky]

The 2005 draft is pretty bad and was awful until Alex Smith improved in the last 3 years. Alex Smith, Ronnie Brown, Cadallic Williams, Pacman, Cedric Benson, Troy Williamson, Antrel Rolle, fat receiver Mike Williams, and Carlos Rogers. That's pretty bad. Especially when Aaron Rodgers and DeMarcus Ware went later in the draft.

 

As much as people pretend to be experts, the draft is a crapshoot.

[dave mcbride]

He is the exception IMO. He also plays on a loaded offensive line. G is a dependent position. If the guys next to you suck, it doesn't matter how good the G is. JMO but I would never draft a G high or pay major money. They can be found later in the draft.

There is no major money anymore in the draft. Those days are long past due to the most recent collective bargaining agreement. That shouldn't be a worry at all. A lot of positions are dependent positions, but all the same dominant players dominate.

 

As for avoiding drafting guards early, I can see that the legend of Chris Naeole still lives. He's more the exception than Martin. A lot of guards drafted in round one have been difference makers. Since 2005, these are the guards drafted in the first round that have succeeded:

 

Logan Mankins (great), David DeCastro (great in 2014) Zach Martin (great), Mike Iupati (great), Kevin Zeitler (very good), Davin Joseph (multiple pro bowls), Kyle Long (2 pro bowls in 2 seasons), and Chance Warmack (his future looks bright).

 

Danny Watkins is the lone bust. Jonathan Cooper may be headed toward bust status as well.

 

That's a pretty good success to bust ratio, don't you think?

Edited February 13, 2015 by dave mcbride

[C.Biscuit97]

There is no major money anymore in the draft. Those days are long past due to the most recent collective bargaining agreement. That shouldn't be a worry at all. A lot of positions are dependent positions, but all the same dominant players dominate.

 

As for avoiding drafting guards early, I can see that the legend of Chris Naeole still lives. He's more the exception than Martin. A lot of guards drafted in round one have been difference makers. Since 2005, these are the guards drafted in the first round that have succeeded:

 

Logan Mankins (great), David DeCastro (great in 2014) Zach Martin (great), Mike Iupati (great), Kevin Zeitler (very good), Davin Joseph (multiple pro bowls), Kyle Long (2 pro bowls in 2 seasons), and Chance Warmack (his future looks bright).

 

Danny Watkins is the lone bust. Jonathan Cooper may be headed toward bust status as well.

 

That's a pretty good success to bust ratio, don't you think?

None of those guys were top 10 picks though. Much different value. If a G is your final piece, then go for it. But most teams don't have that luxury.

 

It's why top Gs hit open market so much. It's a replaceable position.

[dave mcbride]

None of those guys were top 10 picks though. Much different value. If a G is your final piece, then go for it. But most teams don't have that luxury.

 

It's why top Gs hit open market so much. It's a replaceable position.

I don't see how that is relevant. Seriously. They were the first pick of the team drafting them. I could easily flip this around and say that good teams see value in guards but can't draft them early in the first because their records are too good.

[GunnerBill]

Yea as others have said Ziggy Ansah is already a very good player and I think he will go on to be a great player.... Lane Johnson is a solid starting tackle who can play either side effectively... the rest? Ouch.

It's why top Gs hit open market so much. It's a replaceable position.

 

You say that.....but how many teams in the NFL this year were looking for help for the interior of their line? I think that defences are changing with more inside penetration from some of these DTs think Suh, Dareus et al to get pressure right up the middle I think Guard is a position where there is a lack of NFL level talent about. Are there 64 guards that are truly NFL calibre players? I'm not sure there are... hence there are a lot of tackles being kicked inside... not just in Buffalo but everywhere.

[BillsVet]

No it doesn't. Perhaps you need to revisit the 2011 draft to see what a good top ten looks like. The top ten picks from the 2013 draft are fascinatingly bad.

2010 and 2011 top 10 were pretty solid. 2012 and 2013 not so much. 2009 was not good. 2008 was OK. 2007 was excellent. The point remains that sometimes top tier talent isn't so top tier and better players are ultimately taken much later.

 

There are so many fans who want guarantees on decisions and prior to draft picks being selected, there is no such thing. Spending resources to move closer to a guarantee in order to satisfy fear is not what personnel executives get paid to do. They look to acquire the most value for the least cost, and given that 2014 represented a strong WR class, Buffalo didn't do that.

[Sojourner]

I disagree that the whole list is average or wash-outs. That Ansah kid is a freak. He's played football for a total period of 3 years. He's still raw and I know he plays next to two DTs who are great but I really think he is going to carve a decent career for himself.

Warmack ain't too shabby either. I'd take him at the drop of a hat if we could.