Mayock's 2015 Draft Rankings

[thebandit27]

I know quite a few of us respect Mayock as a guy that understands the draft process as well as anyone in the TV business (he's been offered GM jobs by 2 different NFL teams after all), so I figured I'd open (and update) a thread with his draft rankings.

 

Here's the pre-combine version:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000470108/article/mike-mayocks-position-rankings-for-2015-nfl-draft

 

No real surprises, except perhaps seeing T.J. Clemmings as the #1 OT prospect over Andrus Peat, and also I expected Shane Ray to be the #1 edge defender.

 

Love, love, love that he has Shaq Thompson listed as a safety!

[starrymessenger]

Ranking Tevin Coleman as the #5 RB is a surprise to me.

And that's going to change IMO.

[It's in My Blood]

This years draft is just Blah. I'm not saying that because we're without a first round pick, I just don't see any can't miss prospects.

 

Good timing by Whaley to not have a first rounder, intentional or not.

[thebandit27]

This years draft is just Blah. I'm not saying that because we're without a first round pick, I just don't see any can't miss prospects.

 

Good timing by Whaley to not have a first rounder, intentional or not.

I think many GMs felt that the 2014 draft was the time to strike. 2015 is as bad as 2007 or 2013, but it's nowhere near 2011, 2012, or 2014 in terms of overall talent.

[BuffaloHokie13]

This years draft is just Blah. I'm not saying that because we're without a first round pick, I just don't see any can't miss prospects.

 

Good timing by Whaley to not have a first rounder, intentional or not.

While there isn't much to the upper tier talent, there is pretty good depth this year for decent players who can fill roles. Agreed, it's not a bad year to not have a 1st

[K D]

the WR talent in last year's draft was nuts. we will never see that again. only an idiot would trade up to draft a WR in that draft

[C.Biscuit97]

the WR talent in last year's draft was nuts. we will never see that again. only an idiot would trade up to draft a WR in that draft

I still am waiting for one person to have ODB as a top 10 pick before the draft.

 

And Mayock is my favorite but again, these all need to be taken with a grain of salt. He had Robert Ayers, a part time starter at Tennessee, as the best player in his draft. He also rated Gabbert ahead of Newton.

 

The draft is still a big crapshoot. That said, I like me some Maxx Williams. I just wish he wasn't a red head.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

I know quite a few of us respect Mayock as a guy that understands the draft process as well as anyone in the TV business (he's been offered GM jobs by 2 different NFL teams after all), so I figured I'd open (and update) a thread with his draft rankings.

 

Here's the pre-combine version:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000470108/article/mike-mayocks-position-rankings-for-2015-nfl-draft

 

No real surprises, except perhaps seeing T.J. Clemmings as the #1 OT prospect over Andrus Peat, and also I expected Shane Ray to be the #1 edge defender.

 

Love, love, love that he has Shaq Thompson listed as a safety!

 

Thought Brandon Scherff was the best LT not G, how did this happen?

 

if we got him at guard that would be a steal

Edited February 12, 2015 by Buffalo Barbarian

[maddenboy]

We dont need WR, but i'm surprised Amari Cooper isnt #1.

 

I have no idea or opiniion, but now I'm curious about the #1 guy.

 

And I do still love the move for Sammy btw

[thebandit27]

 

Thought Brandon Scherff was the best LT not G, how did this happen?

Obviously Mayock feels that Scherff will beat be suited for the OG position in the NFL.

 

Probably due to his lack of arm length is my guess.

 

I actually think it's a pretty good OT class. Guys like Daryl Williams from Oklahoma aren't day 1 picks but could be starters.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Obviously Mayock feels that Scherff will beat be suited for the OG position in the NFL.

 

Probably due to his lack of arm length is my guess.

 

I actually think it's a pretty good OT class. Guys like Daryl Williams from Oklahoma aren't day 1 picks but could be starters.

 

think we take a Tackle early?

[JohnC]

I still am waiting for one person to have ODB as a top 10 pick before the draft.

 

And Mayock is my favorite but again, these all need to be taken with a grain of salt. He had Robert Ayers, a part time starter at Tennessee, as the best player in his draft. He also rated Gabbert ahead of Newton.

 

The draft is still a big crapshoot. That said, I like me some Maxx Williams. I just wish he wasn't a red head.

The player I am touting for the Bills in the second round is Duke's guard Laken Tomlinson. The Dallas Cowboys should be a good model for us. By having an upper tier OL you improve your team on both the offense and defense. Drafting a guard is not very stylish but it is substative.

[thebandit27]

 

think we take a Tackle early?

 

Perhaps...depends on what you mean by early. If you mean round 2, I don't think so...maybe round 3, more likely rounds 5 or 6 IMO.

The player I am touting for the Bills in the second round is Duke's guard Laken Tomlinson. The Dallas Cowboys should be a good model for us. By having an upper tier OL you improve your team on both the offense and defense. Drafting a guard is not very stylish but it is substative.

I like Tomlinson a lot... I have him as my 2nd rated guard behind AJ Cann of South Carolina, and just ahead of Cam Erving (FSU) and Jarvis Harrison (Texas A&M).

[BillsVet]

The player I am touting for the Bills in the second round is Duke's guard Laken Tomlinson. The Dallas Cowboys should be a good model for us. By having an upper tier OL you improve your team on both the offense and defense. Drafting a guard is not very stylish but it is substative.

I'd be looking to use that 2nd round pick for a more dynamic position, say perhaps TE. 5 of the last 12 guards receiving votes to the NFL All-Pro Team in 2013 and 2014 were taken in either round 3 or 4.

 

I'd rather they find UFA guards who are more plug and play and fit their system (not Iupati) so they can use their high picks on skill positions.

[JohnC]

I'd be looking to use that 2nd round pick for a more dynamic position, say perhaps TE. 5 of the last 12 guards receiving votes to the NFL All-Pro Team in 2013 and 2014 were taken in either round 3 or 4.

 

I'd rather they find UFA guards who are more plug and play and fit their system (not Iupati) so they can use their high picks on skill positions.

I understand your position and it makes a lot of sense. But Dallas demonstrated that if you want a high end line that puts your qb in a better situation then investing in the OL is a good strategy to take. The Bills have taken the approach that bringing in average free agent talent is more than sufficient to bolster the line. It's obvious that hasn't worked out.

 

If the Bills were using a first round pick on a guard I would be more sympathetic to your stance. But that isn't the case here. Our OL last year was arguably the worst line in the league. They were worse than being mediocre. As a unit they were so frequently overwhelmed that the qb was flinching before he even took the snap.

 

There are some very good quality guards that will be availble for us in the second round. If you want a significant upgrade on the OL then it would be smart to invest higher round picks to get that level of quality. It's not very dramatic but it is a sound way to go.

[thebandit27]

I understand your position and it makes a lot of sense. But Dallas demonstrated that if you want a high end line that puts your qb in a better situation then investing in the OL is a good strategy to take. The Bills have taken the approach that bringing in average free agent talent is more than sufficient to bolster the line. It's obvious that hasn't worked out.

 

If the Bills were using a first round pick on a guard I would be more sympathetic to your stance. But that isn't the case here. Our OL last year was arguably the worst line in the league. They were worse than being mediocre. As a unit they were so frequently overwhelmed that the qb was flinching before he even took the snap.

 

There are some very good quality guards that will be availble for us in the second round. If you want a significant upgrade on the OL then it would be smart to invest higher round picks to get that level of quality. It's not very dramatic but it is a sound way to go.

I find that to be a gross over-statement.

 

The guard play was generally poor; the overall line was below average, but nowhere near the hot mess that teams like Indy and SD had to put up with.

[JohnC]

I find that to be a gross over-statement.

 

The guard play was generally poor; the overall line was below average, but nowhere near the hot mess that teams like Indy and SD had to put up with.

The guard play was less than poor. It constantly got overwhelmed to the detriment of the other linemen. There is nothing unusual about having less than average performance from some of the members on the line. You can to a certain extent compensate for its limitations. But when it gets to the point that it is a constant cave in situation then there is no remedy other than personnel changes.

 

If you combine the inadequate level of play of our guards and RT and you factor in that our qb was one of the least mobile qb in the league then you have a toxic mix. I stand by my view that this OL was one of the worst, if not the worst OL, in the league. It's not surprising that the front office is already making transactions to bolster that hideously ineffective line.

[thebandit27]

The guard play was less than poor. It constantly got overwhelmed to the detriment of the other linemen. There is nothing unusual about having less than average performance from some of the members on the line. You can to a certain extent compensate for its limitations. But when it gets to the point that it is a constant cave in situation then there is no remedy other than personnel changes.

 

If you combine the inadequate level of play of our guards and RT and you factor in that our qb was one of the least mobile qb in the league then you have a toxic mix. I stand by my view that this OL was one of the worst, if not the worst OL, in the league. It's not surprising that the front office is already making transactions to bolster that hideously ineffective line.

I did not say that personnel changes weren't necessary. There just happens to be nothing about the OL's play that substantiates the idea that they were the worst (or even among the worst) OLs in the NFL. They finished outside the bottom 10 in both sacks allowed and QB hits allowed, despite playing 3/4 of the season with one of the least mobile QBs in the league.

 

YPC was a bigger issue, as they finished bottom 10 (26th actually)...IMO, that that goes on the RBs just as much as the OL. The RBs gained very few yards after contact, and regularly missed opportunities to hit holes that were there. By far, the biggest issues with the OL came when Richardson was in at LG, and Urbik coming in definitely improved the OL as a whole (7 of the team's 39 sacks allowed came in a single game whilst Richardson was in there). I also notice that the team's overall short-yardage blocking (vis-a-vis "Power Success") was 16th in the league.

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=OFFENSIVE_LINE&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=RUSHING_TOTAL_AVERAGE_YDS&tabSeq=2&season=2014&role=TM&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&qualified=false

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

 

Just some food for thought. I don't expect to change your opinion, but rather to bring to light some facts that may put your overall view of their performance in perspective.

[BillsVet]

 

I understand your position and it makes a lot of sense. But Dallas demonstrated that if you want a high end line that puts your qb in a better situation then investing in the OL is a good strategy to take. The Bills have taken the approach that bringing in average free agent talent is more than sufficient to bolster the line. It's obvious that hasn't worked out.

 

If the Bills were using a first round pick on a guard I would be more sympathetic to your stance. But that isn't the case here. Our OL last year was arguably the worst line in the league. They were worse than being mediocre. As a unit they were so frequently overwhelmed that the qb was flinching before he even took the snap.

 

There are some very good quality guards that will be availble for us in the second round. If you want a significant upgrade on the OL then it would be smart to invest higher round picks to get that level of quality. It's not very dramatic but it is a sound way to go.

 

I know full-well how bad they were on the OL this year. My point remains that you can find decent guards in UFA and they don't typically cost a great deal. But you don't find outstanding TE's in UFA and if you do, they'll cost a pretty penny. The draft is not there only to fill needs, which invariably it becomes to a lot of posters here, because that's essentially how the Bills have used their top picks going back to around 2006. Savvy teams do better than draft for need.

 

Edited February 12, 2015 by BillsVet

[JohnC]

I did not say that personnel changes weren't necessary. There just happens to be nothing about the OL's play that substantiates the idea that they were the worst (or even among the worst) OLs in the NFL. They finished outside the bottom 10 in both sacks allowed and QB hits allowed, despite playing 3/4 of the season with one of the least mobile QBs in the league.

 

YPC was a bigger issue, as they finished bottom 10 (26th actually)...IMO, that that goes on the RBs just as much as the OL. The RBs gained very few yards after contact, and regularly missed opportunities to hit holes that were there. By far, the biggest issues with the OL came when Richardson was in at LG, and Urbik coming in definitely improved the OL as a whole (7 of the team's 39 sacks allowed came in a single game whilst Richardson was in there). I also notice that the team's overall short-yardage blocking (vis-a-vis "Power Success") was 16th in the league.

 

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=OFFENSIVE_LINE&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=RUSHING_TOTAL_AVERAGE_YDS&tabSeq=2&season=2014&role=TM&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&qualified=false

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

 

Just some food for thought. I don't expect to change your opinion, but rather to bring to light some facts that may put your overall view of their performance in perspective.

I appreciate your detailed response and research. Sometimes stats are less telling when not considered in context. As an example offensive stats are inflated when the opposing defense is in a prevent situation. You can accumulate a lot of impressive stats that don't reflect the overall performance.

 

The problem with oiur guard play was that it was not simply below average, it was at a level of mediocrity that was constantly being exploited. It not only was a weak point but it negatively affected the play of the center and LT. Henderson struggled all season, especially the second half of the season.

 

If you review the play of each offensive lineman not one of them had a good year. Glenn had a down year and Woods play was below his usual decent standard. The guards were overwhelmed and so was the RT.

 

As I stated in the prior post one of the top priorities of the front office is to upgrade this very lacking line. It's not surprising that one of its first transactions early in the offseason dealt with bringing in a player with a history of troubles to improve an area that desperately needs improvement.

 

I'm not saying you are wrong in your more positive assessment. Even with your excellent stat rebuttal I maintain my position that this line was one of the worst, if not the worst, OL in the league.