What do you think will happen with Jerry Hughes?

[YoloinOhio]

Does anyone know how much it would cost to tag him this year?

I'd be interested to see how it compares to the $13ish million I think he'll be gunning for in FA.

I don't think the 2015 tag numbers have been released yet (that I am aware of) but the 2014 was:

Franchise tag: ~13 mill

Transition tag: ~10 mill

[BuffaloHokie13]

Does anyone know how much it would cost to tag him this year?

I'd be interested to see how it compares to the $13ish million I think he'll be gunning for in FA.

$14.68M for a DE per this CBS Sports Article but it's by La Canfora so build in some expected error

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I think it's very possible that he is tagged.

I don't think so. Many comparable players on the market this year. He will be re-signed. The only question is does Buffalo set the market or wait.

 

Jason Worlids is a contract to watch. He was transition tagged last year, could be a situation Hughes finds himself in if not signed. But I bet we see a deal similar to Worlids, slightly more.

[Cleveland Rocks?]

My lasting image of Hughes, as a Browns fan....

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pd5DftzF9Q

[Not at the table Karlos]

he is out of position in rex's defense.

 

to small to play DE and not a LB.

uggh..... IF Rex runs a 34 like most people here assume he will despite Rex and Thurman saying they will fit the scheme to the players. Hughes is a perfect fit as a rush LB. Also like others have already pointed out he played very well in a defense that a guy who learned under Rex deployed. How don't people remember this. He has been used as a DE/OLB the last 3 years (going back to the Colts. And was showing signs of progress with them).

I would not look at him as a "DE" or a "LB" but rather as an "EDGE" defender. Hughes thrived in Pettine's similar D in 2013 as a situational pass rusher. Last year in the 4-3, he still aligned at the nine-technique in a two-point stance. Basically an OLB.

 

Speaking of Edge defenders...Randell Johnson is athletically and physically a great fit for that role in a 3-4, basically what Hughes was doing in 2013.

thank you.

 

OG Randell Johnson!!

 

Jarius Wynn? Manny Lawson? You act like Jerry Hughes is some proven Pro Bowl talent who has killed it his entire career. He was a bum for 3 years with the Colts and then he came and flourished alongside the best defensive line in the league for two years. At no point in his career has he proven to be an elite player on his own. Jarius Wynn, Manny Lawson, or whoever else the Bills brought in would benefit from playing on the same line that Hughes did and would probably do fine.

 

And more importantly, I'd rather have a stud TE than Hughes any day of the week. I'm sure plenty of DEs will be able to get pressure on the QB when the line has to double team Mario, Dareus, or Kyle Williams.

100% disagree

 

You're talking about a guy that will probably only play 50% of defensive snaps like he did in Pettine's system. You really want to pay someone like that $13 million a year when we're already paying our other DE over $16 million a year?

 

I'd happily take Jordon Cameron if Thomas doesn't hit FA(even though he almost definitely will).

why would he only play 50% of the snaps?

[TheBillsWillRiseAgain]

uggh..... IF Rex runs a 34 like most people here assume he will despite Rex and Thurman saying they will fit the scheme to the players. Hughes is a perfect fit as a rush LB. Also like others have already pointed out he played very well in a defense that a guy who learned under Rex deployed. How don't people remember this. He has been used as a DE/OLB the last 3 years (going back to the Colts. And was showing signs of progress with them).

thank you.

 

OG Randell Johnson!!

100% disagree

why would he only play 50% of the snaps?

 

Specifically, Hughes wasn't part of the base defense under Pettine, only coming on the field in sub packages and playing 52.8 percent of defensive snaps that season. Under Schwartz, Hughes was part of both the base and sub defenses but was used as part of a rotation, playing in 71.9 percent of snaps.

 

Assuming that new coach Rex Ryan and defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman implement the system they ran in New York, which Pettine also used in Buffalo, the Bills have two options if they re-sign Hughes:

 

1. Use Hughes only in the sub defense, exclusively as a hand-in-the-dirt pass-rusher. This would mean Hughes wouldn't be on the field on early downs, which would diminish his overall value to the team.
2. Use Hughes both in the sub and base defenses. Since Ryan's base scheme essentially uses three defensive tackles (Pettine used Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams and Alan Branch) and only one true defensive end (Pettine tapped Mario Williams), Hughes would need to find a home at "Sam" linebacker in the base defense. That would mean him standing up at the snap and having coverage responsibilities on some plays, asManny Lawson did in that spot in 2013. A similar role didn't work out well for Hughes in Indianapolis in 2012, and the Bills might be better suited using Lawson at that position or pursuing a free agent like Calvin Pace.

In either case, Hughes' value to the Bills shouldn't be as high as it would be if they still ran Schwartz's scheme, which allowed Hughes to be a full-time defensive end and a threat to rush the passer on every snap. Yes, he had just as many sacks under Pettine in a part-time role as he did under Schwartz in a full-time role, but he came at a significantly reduced cost in 2013 than he would in 2015.

 

Likewise, Hughes theoretically should have less desire to return to the Bills since he would be either a part-time player or potentially miscast on early downs. If he waits until the free-agent negotiation period begins on March 7, he could find a lucrative offer elsewhere for a full-time role.

http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/74872/jerry-hughes-has-proven-worth-but-bills-must-be-cautious-with-their-coin

[YoloinOhio]

 

Specifically, Hughes wasn't part of the base defense under Pettine, only coming on the field in sub packages and playing 52.8 percent of defensive snaps that season. Under Schwartz, Hughes was part of both the base and sub defenses but was used as part of a rotation, playing in 71.9 percent of snaps.

 

 

Assuming that new coach Rex Ryan and defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman implement the system they ran in New York, which Pettine also used in Buffalo, the Bills have two options if they re-sign Hughes:

 

• Use Hughes only in the sub defense, exclusively as a hand-in-the-dirt pass-rusher. This would mean Hughes wouldn't be on the field on early downs, which would diminish his overall value to the team.
• Use Hughes both in the sub and base defenses. Since Ryan's base scheme essentially uses three defensive tackles (Pettine used Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams and Alan Branch) and only one true defensive end (Pettine tapped Mario Williams), Hughes would need to find a home at "Sam" linebacker in the base defense. That would mean him standing up at the snap and having coverage responsibilities on some plays, asManny Lawson did in that spot in 2013. A similar role didn't work out well for Hughes in Indianapolis in 2012, and the Bills might be better suited using Lawson at that position or pursuing a free agent like Calvin Pace.

In either case, Hughes' value to the Bills shouldn't be as high as it would be if they still ran Schwartz's scheme, which allowed Hughes to be a full-time defensive end and a threat to rush the passer on every snap. Yes, he had just as many sacks under Pettine in a part-time role as he did under Schwartz in a full-time role, but he came at a significantly reduced cost in 2013 than he would in 2015.

 

Likewise, Hughes theoretically should have less desire to return to the Bills since he would be either a part-time player or potentially miscast on early downs. If he waits until the free-agent negotiation period begins on March 7, he could find a lucrative offer elsewhere for a full-time role.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/74872/jerry-hughes-has-proven-worth-but-bills-must-be-cautious-with-their-coin

again, Pettine's defense is not the same as Rex's.

[TheBillsWillRiseAgain]

That doesn't mean it's not similar.

[Kelly the Dog]

 

Specifically, Hughes wasn't part of the base defense under Pettine, only coming on the field in sub packages and playing 52.8 percent of defensive snaps that season. Under Schwartz, Hughes was part of both the base and sub defenses but was used as part of a rotation, playing in 71.9 percent of snaps.

 

Assuming that new coach Rex Ryan and defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman implement the system they ran in New York, which Pettine also used in Buffalo, the Bills have two options if they re-sign Hughes:

 

1. Use Hughes only in the sub defense, exclusively as a hand-in-the-dirt pass-rusher. This would mean Hughes wouldn't be on the field on early downs, which would diminish his overall value to the team.
2. Use Hughes both in the sub and base defenses. Since Ryan's base scheme essentially uses three defensive tackles (Pettine used Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams and Alan Branch) and only one true defensive end (Pettine tapped Mario Williams), Hughes would need to find a home at "Sam" linebacker in the base defense. That would mean him standing up at the snap and having coverage responsibilities on some plays, asManny Lawson did in that spot in 2013. A similar role didn't work out well for Hughes in Indianapolis in 2012, and the Bills might be better suited using Lawson at that position or pursuing a free agent like Calvin Pace.

2013 was Hughes' first year here. They didn't know what they had in him. He was always known as a speed pass rusher from the edge, so that's what Pettine used him as, and that's why he played 53% of the snaps.

 

When Schwartz came in, most people assumed that Hughes would get taken advantage of as a DE because of his weight, and style, and never having had to hold his own much against the run. But he was an overwhelming success at it all year. He will not go back to a situational rusher under any circumstances. He's proven to be much, much more than that.

And he played virtually the same position as he did under Pettine, just a few steps wider.

[TheBillsWillRiseAgain]

He's been proven to be more than that in Schwartz's system, sure. Maybe his success will continue in Rex's system, maybe it won't. I mean it's not like players have never seen a production drop when switching to a new system. Only time will tell.

 

But it's certainly something the coaches will put a lot of thought into for a player that's going to be asking for such a large contract.

Edited January 29, 2015 by TheBillsWillRiseAgain

[Kelly the Dog]

He's been proven to be more than that in Schwartz's system, sure. Maybe his success will continue in Rex's system, maybe it won't. I mean it's not like players have never seen a production drop when switching to a new system. Only time will tell.

 

But it's certainly something the coaches will put a lot of thought into for a player that's going to be asking for such a large contract.

Under Pettine and under Schwartz, Jerry Hughes lined up on the outside of the LT, right on the LOS, and rushed every single play. When he diagnosed a run he tried to hold the edge. Lined up in basically the same spot in both defenses (a little wider in Schwartz's) and did the exact same thing every single play. Even Schwartz said himself that Hughes's job didn't change.

[Not at the table Karlos]

 

Specifically, Hughes wasn't part of the base defense under Pettine, only coming on the field in sub packages and playing 52.8 percent of defensive snaps that season. Under Schwartz, Hughes was part of both the base and sub defenses but was used as part of a rotation, playing in 71.9 percent of snaps.

 

 

Assuming that new coach Rex Ryan and defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman implement the system they ran in New York, which Pettine also used in Buffalo, the Bills have two options if they re-sign Hughes:

 

• Use Hughes only in the sub defense, exclusively as a hand-in-the-dirt pass-rusher. This would mean Hughes wouldn't be on the field on early downs, which would diminish his overall value to the team.
• Use Hughes both in the sub and base defenses. Since Ryan's base scheme essentially uses three defensive tackles (Pettine used Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams and Alan Branch) and only one true defensive end (Pettine tapped Mario Williams), Hughes would need to find a home at "Sam" linebacker in the base defense. That would mean him standing up at the snap and having coverage responsibilities on some plays, asManny Lawson did in that spot in 2013. A similar role didn't work out well for Hughes in Indianapolis in 2012, and the Bills might be better suited using Lawson at that position or pursuing a free agent like Calvin Pace.

In either case, Hughes' value to the Bills shouldn't be as high as it would be if they still ran Schwartz's scheme, which allowed Hughes to be a full-time defensive end and a threat to rush the passer on every snap. Yes, he had just as many sacks under Pettine in a part-time role as he did under Schwartz in a full-time role, but he came at a significantly reduced cost in 2013 than he would in 2015.

 

Likewise, Hughes theoretically should have less desire to return to the Bills since he would be either a part-time player or potentially miscast on early downs. If he waits until the free-agent negotiation period begins on March 7, he could find a lucrative offer elsewhere for a full-time role.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/74872/jerry-hughes-has-proven-worth-but-bills-must-be-cautious-with-their-coin

that's a lot of assumptions. IF the base defense is what pettine used we would line up in a 43 over and Hughes would be an edge player/pass rusher(very similar to the way he was used the last two years) IF the base is a 34 Hughes would be used as a pass rushing OLB (very similar to the way he was used the last two years). IF the defense is a 43 he will be used as an end (very similar to the way he was used the last two years). IF we use nickel as base, he will play end (very similar to the way he was used the last 2 years). IF we use a 46 he will play end (very similar to the way we used him the past two years). IF we fit the scheme to the players he will be used as an OLB/DE (very similar to how he was used the last two years).

2013 was Hughes' first year here. They didn't know what they had in him. He was always known as a speed pass rusher from the edge, so that's what Pettine used him as, and that's why he played 53% of the snaps.

 

When Schwartz came in, most people assumed that Hughes would get taken advantage of as a DE because of his weight, and style, and never having had to hold his own much against the run. But he was an overwhelming success at it all year. He will not go back to a situational rusher under any circumstances. He's proven to be much, much more than that.

 

And he played virtually the same position as he did under Pettine, just a few steps wider.

yup

[TheBillsWillRiseAgain]

Everything at this point on either side of the discussion is assumption. We have no idea what kind of defense the Bills will be running next season. We can only guess based on the defenses Rex has ran in the past, but he might very well go a completely different direction in 2015.

[Not at the table Karlos]

He's been proven to be more than that in Schwartz's system, sure. Maybe his success will continue in Rex's system, maybe it won't. I mean it's not like players have never seen a production drop when switching to a new system. Only time will tell.

 

But it's certainly something the coaches will put a lot of thought into for a player that's going to be asking for such a large contract.

he had success in pettines system which you said yourself is similar to rex. He had success in gym shorts system which used him basically the same way. Rex said himself that he fits the scheme to his players so hughes will most likely be used the same way he has been used the last two years.i don't understand how one of the best defensive minds in football won't be able to get production out of the guy. Hell rex got production out of Maybin. Edited January 29, 2015 by kr632

[Buffalo_Stampede]

 

Specifically, Hughes wasn't part of the base defense under Pettine, only coming on the field in sub packages and playing 52.8 percent of defensive snaps that season. Under Schwartz, Hughes was part of both the base and sub defenses but was used as part of a rotation, playing in 71.9 percent of snaps.

 

 

Assuming that new coach Rex Ryan and defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman implement the system they ran in New York, which Pettine also used in Buffalo, the Bills have two options if they re-sign Hughes:

 

• Use Hughes only in the sub defense, exclusively as a hand-in-the-dirt pass-rusher. This would mean Hughes wouldn't be on the field on early downs, which would diminish his overall value to the team.
• Use Hughes both in the sub and base defenses. Since Ryan's base scheme essentially uses three defensive tackles (Pettine used Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams and Alan Branch) and only one true defensive end (Pettine tapped Mario Williams), Hughes would need to find a home at "Sam" linebacker in the base defense. That would mean him standing up at the snap and having coverage responsibilities on some plays, asManny Lawson did in that spot in 2013. A similar role didn't work out well for Hughes in Indianapolis in 2012, and the Bills might be better suited using Lawson at that position or pursuing a free agent like Calvin Pace.

In either case, Hughes' value to the Bills shouldn't be as high as it would be if they still ran Schwartz's scheme, which allowed Hughes to be a full-time defensive end and a threat to rush the passer on every snap. Yes, he had just as many sacks under Pettine in a part-time role as he did under Schwartz in a full-time role, but he came at a significantly reduced cost in 2013 than he would in 2015.

 

Likewise, Hughes theoretically should have less desire to return to the Bills since he would be either a part-time player or potentially miscast on early downs. If he waits until the free-agent negotiation period begins on March 7, he could find a lucrative offer elsewhere for a full-time role.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/74872/jerry-hughes-has-proven-worth-but-bills-must-be-cautious-with-their-coin

Why did you ignore my post on that 52%

 

Like I said Hughes was not set on the roster early in 2013. The 1st 8 games in 2013 he played 28 snaps per game. The final 8 games in 2013 he played 48 snaps per game. In 2014 he averaged 49 snaps.

 

In 2013 you will see a significant increase in our defensive success as Hughes got more playing time. Stop using overall playing time in 2013,it doesn't support your argument.

 

Rodak is an idiot also.

Edited January 29, 2015 by TheTruthHurts

[Kelly the Dog]

Everything at this point on either side of the discussion is assumption. We have no idea what kind of defense the Bills will be running next season. We can only guess based on the defenses Rex has ran in the past, but he might very well go a completely different direction in 2015.

Except everything that has actually happened, and has been said by anyone close to the team, indicates that Hughes will be a full time player in any defense, especially after they have to shell out 12m a year for him. That is the going rate as well as the predicted rate by the best online site for contracts. You seem to be the only one assuming that Jerry Hughes will revert back to being a situational pass rusher, and seem to be assuming that he played a different position in 2013 and 2014.

[TheBillsWillRiseAgain]

Except everything that has actually happened, and has been said by anyone close to the team, indicates that Hughes will be a full time player in any defense, especially after they have to shell out 12m a year for him. That is the going rate as well as the predicted rate by the best online site for contracts. You seem to be the only one assuming that Jerry Hughes will revert back to being a situational pass rusher, and seem to be assuming that he played a different position in 2013 and 2014.

 

The only thing I'm assuming is that Jerry Hughes won't be in a Bills uniform next season.

EDIT: UNLESS they have a plan to let Mario Williams go in 2016 when his dead cap hit drops to a 4th of what it is this year. As someone mentioned earlier in the thread, Mario will be 30 soon and Hughes is 4 years younger.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

 

 

Some stats to show his impact.

 

First 8 games of 2013 28 snaps per game

381 yards allowed per game

27 points allowed per game

27 sacks

 

Final 8 games of 2013 48 snaps per game

286 yards allowed per game

22 points allowed per game

30 sacks

 

2014 his snap count similar to final 8 games in 2013, the D was 4th overall in yards and points allowed. #1 in sacks.

[YoloinOhio]

 

The only thing I'm assuming is that Jerry Hughes won't be in a Bills uniform next season.

 

EDIT: UNLESS they have a plan to let Mario Williams go in 2016 when his dead cap hit drops to a 4th of what it is this year. As someone mentioned earlier in the thread, Mario will be 30 soon and Hughes is 4 years younger.

just because Hughes is younger doesn't mean he is as good. No reason to cut Mario to keep Hughes. Restructure, maybe. Any reason Mario would not be still playing at a high level for at least 5 more years?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

just because Hughes is younger doesn't mean he is as good. No reason to cut Mario to keep Hughes. Restructure, maybe. Any reason Mario would not be still playing at a high level for at least 5 more years?

for that cap hit you can sign almost anyone. So yes, Mario will have to lower that cap # after 2015 or become the best defensive player in the game. Dareus will get that contract after next season.