Patriots locker room attendant implicated in Deflate gate

[K D]

So we are supposed to believe that its just a coincidence that this guy disappeared with the balls in the bathroom around the same time the Patriot balls went from 12.5 psi to 10.5 psi? Something in here stinks and its not just the footballs. I hope he at least washed his hands after

[NoSaint]

 

My responses in red above......with the big question being......Why did Tom Brady's Fumble Per Sack rate improve from 1 in every 3 sacks pre-2007 to 1 in every 5 sacks post 2006? Dave Mcbride suggested natural improvement......which though possible, does not seem likely as a quick look shows that other QBs have not had a similar extreme stat change in this area.

What if Brady has been getting the superstar treatment and defenders are less aggressive with him for fear of penalty? Especially with rule changes the last several years?

 

Really just thinking out loud there as an idea that came to mind

So we are supposed to believe that its just a coincidence that this guy disappeared with the balls in the bathroom around the same time the Patriot balls went from 12.5 psi to 10.5 psi? Something in here stinks and its not just the footballs. I hope he at least washed his hands after

If it's as simple as it seems, couldn't it have happened a lot of easy ways? Even not in that moment?

[TheFunPolice]

That can't be all the NFL has....

 

IF they thought New England* was innocent it would all be done by now and they would have said so to avoid it overshadowing and tainting the Super Bowl.

 

If somehow the NFL has no evidence then I (as a guy tied for the #2 Patriot* hater in the world behind Rex Ryan with many other football fans) fully support the Patriots* demanding an apology and Goodell's resignation.

[Dibs]

What if Brady has been getting the superstar treatment and defenders are less aggressive with him for fear of penalty? Especially with rule changes the last several years?

 

Really just thinking out loud there as an idea that came to mind

 

.....

 

Yeah, that would be a possible reason as well.....but still a bit of a stretch.

 

I thought of looking at this situation from a different angle. Imagine if you will, that there was no deflategate(no balls discovered to be deflated).....and the fumbling statistics were discovered showing the Patriots fumbling dramatically improved post-2006. We would all be looking as to why this occurred.

 

We would rule out coaching as it was the same coach in many years before and after the change.

 

We would rule out the concept that the Patriots search out players who have exceptional ball security.....as the players that they actually obtained were no better/worse on average than the rest of the league in regards to fumbling(as shown prior and post to playing with the Patriots).

 

We would look at the QBs, as the QB position typically fumbles the most....and we would find that the Pats QBs dramatically reduced their Fumble to Sack rate after the 2006 season......and the only player to play substantially before and after the 2007 change was Tom Brady who improved his Fumble Per Sack rate from 1 in 3 to 1 in 5.

 

We would then be throwing out the theories that we have been. Did he simply naturally improve? Possible, but upon looking would see that it didn't correlate to other QBs. Perhaps it was the protection rules(as you postulated above)? Possible, but other QBs also benefited from the new rules. Even if we think that Brady gets extra special treatment, there should be a change in fumble rates for other star QBs due to those rules....which there isn't.

 

So now we have a total conundrum. How did Brady improve his fumble rate? I guess it must be one of those extremely unlikely reasons we thought of. But wait! There was a rule change regarding balls post-2006........and what's that? The Patriots have been caught deflating their balls. Though obviously one cannot prove things either way, deflated balls becomes by far the best explanation as to why Tom Brady radically improved his fumble rate post-2006.

 

 

I don't believe that anything can(or will) be done in regards to the fumble rate change(since 2007).....and nor should it. It really remains speculation and the NFL should leave that part alone. But as a fan looking in, I see no logical reason why the deflated balls wouldn't be considered by all(except Patriots fanatics) to be by far the most likely reason for the statistical anomaly.

Edited January 29, 2015 by Dibs

[NoSaint]

 

Yeah, that would be a possible reason as well.....but still a bit of a stretch.

 

I thought of looking at this situation from a different angle. Imagine if you will, that there was no deflategate(no balls discovered to be deflated).....and the fumbling statistics were discovered showing the Patriots fumbling dramatically improved post-2006. We would all be looking as to why this occurred.

 

We would rule out coaching as it was the same coach in many years before and after the change.

 

We would rule out the concept that the Patriots search out players who have exceptional ball security.....as the players that they actually obtained were no better/worse on average than the rest of the league in regards to fumbling(as shown prior and post to playing with the Patriots).

 

We would look at the QBs, as the QB position typically fumbles the most....and we would find that the Pats QBs dramatically reduced their Fumble to Sack rate after the 2006 season......and the only player to play substantially before and after the 2007 change was Tom Brady who improved his Fumble Per Sack rate from 1 in 3 to 1 in 5.

 

We would then be throwing out the theories that we have been. Did he simply naturally improve? Possible, but upon looking would see that it didn't correlate to other QBs. Perhaps it was the protection rules(as you postulated above)? Possible, but other QBs also benefited from the new rules. Even if we think that Brady gets extra special treatment, there should be a change in fumble rates for other star QBs due to those rules....which there isn't.

 

So now we have a total conundrum. How did Brady improve his fumble rate? I guess it must be one of those extremely unlikely reasons. But wait! There was a rule change regarding balls post-2006........and what's that? The Patriots have been caught deflating their balls. Though obviously one cannot prove things either way, deflated balls becomes by far the best explanation as to why Tom Brady radically improved his fumble rate post-2006.

 

 

I don't believe that anything can(or will) be done in regards to the fumble rate change(since 2007).....and nor should it. It really remains speculation and the NFL should leave that part alone. But as a fan looking in, I see no logical reason why the deflated balls wouldn't be considered by all(except Patriots fanatics) to be by far the most likely reason for the statistical anomaly.

Some of those you casually rule out I still think can play roles and the sum of several little things add up (and deflation may be one of those little things). I just have a hard time with the methodology in that "study" (appreciate your efforts to extend the scope) and feeling like the deflation would fully account for that gap alone.

 

Sure it could, and should, help some but are we really thinking that it would save, what, 8-10 fumbles a season for the team?

[Dibs]

Some of those you casually rule out I still think can play roles and the sum of several little things add up (and deflation may be one of those little things). I just have a hard time with the methodology in that "study" (appreciate your efforts to extend the scope) and feeling like the deflation would fully account for that gap alone.

 

Sure it could, and should, help some but are we really thinking that it would save, what, 8-10 fumbles a season for the team?

I think that the perception of just how many fumbles we are talking about is generally over valued. Simply looking at Brady fumbles, he only improves by 23 fumbles, and 10 fumbles lost between his first 182 sacks and his second lot of 182 sacks. (Coincidentally has the exact same amount of sacks pre-2007 as post-2006). That is around 1.5 lost fumble per year....or about 3 fumbles per year.

 

Having a very quick look, the number of fumbles lost per year by the average NFL team is only around 10....and that includes special teams fumbles lost. If you were an average team in 2014 at fumbles lost(like the Bills were), you would only need to improve by 5 fumbles to become top 3.

 

Brady is a superstar QB....and I would assume that he generally gets sacked far less than the average QB(no stats looked at by me here)....and therefore would generally have a lower fumble/game rate than a majority of NFL QBs. His improving from from a 1 in 3 fumble/sack rate to a 1 in 5 does not indicate that the Patriots had a massive advantage.....simply that they had an advantage in the odd games where he didn't fumble(and then lose) due to deflated balls(or whatever reason caused the lowering of fumbles).

 

In other words I think the whole fumble thing is only a slight advantage.....but an advantage non the less.

 

Edit: And those other reasons we have discussed are really just wild stabs in the dark with nothing apart from speculation to back them up. Of the few QBs that I have looked at, only Brady (and Cassel) have shown to have a substantial lowering in Fumble Per Sack rate. I'll look at a bunch more soon & let you know what I find.

Edited January 29, 2015 by Dibs

[Dibs]

Having been inspired by fellow posters(mainly NoSaint and Dave Mcbride), I thought I would have a closer look at QB Fumble Per Sack rates from a larger sample of QBs. The reasons for doing this are to see if Brady's FPS improvements were an aberration, or if indeed there were other QBs who had similar improvements after the 2006 season......and also after their first 6 seasons(the number of years played by Brady prior to 2007).

 

This is a very simplistic study as QB fumbles will not always directly correlate to QB sacks. QB scrambles and miscommunication between QB and Center can add non-sack related fumbles......but it should give a decent basic view.

 

Below are the Fumble Per Sack rates.

(Numbers indicate how many sacks each QB takes per fumble. Numbers used are for total fumbles. I also limited results to QBs who had at least 3 good seasons prior to 2007 or 3 good seasons after 2006.)

 

Brady

Overall: 3.8, Pre-2007: 3.1, Post-2006: 5.1

 

P. Manning

Overall: 3.9, Pre-2007: 3.8, Post-2006: 4.0

 

Brees

Overall: 3.5, Pre-2007: 3.4, Post-2006: 3.6

 

E. Manning

Overall: 3.3, Pre-2007: 3.1, Post-2006: 3.3

 

Roethisberger

Overall: 5.4, Pre-2007: 11.0, Post-2006: 4.6

 

McNabb

Overall: 4.3, Pre-2007: 4.5, Post-2006: 4.1

 

Favre

Overall: 3.2, Pre-2007: 3.1, Post-2006: 3.6

 

Warner

Overall: 2.5, Pre-2007: 2.8, Post-2006: 2.1

 

 

As one can see, Brady is the only one with a significant improvement post-2006....and the only one with any major variance at all apart from Big Ben who seemed to be fumble proof in his first 3 seasons(2004-2006).

 

 

As 2006 was Brady's 6th season, I thought I would have a further look at some QBs first 6 good seasons compared to the rest of their careers. This will address the point that Dave brought up earlier that QBs could very well improve their fumble rate as they gained more experience.

 

 

Brady

Overall: 3.8, First 6 seasons: 3.1, Post 6th season: 5.1

 

P.Manning

Overall: 3.9, First 6 seasons: 3.8, Post 6th season: 3.9

 

Brees

Overall: 3.5, First 6 seasons: 3.1, Post 6th season: 4.0

 

E. Manning

Overall: 3.3, First 6 seasons: 2.9, Post 6th season: 3.8

 

Roethisberger

Overall: 5.4, First 6 seasons: 6.2, Post 6th season: 4.5

 

McNabb

Overall: 4.3, First 6 seasons: 4.7, Post 6th season: 4.0

 

Favre

Overall: 3.2, First 6 seasons: 3.3, Post 6th season: 3.1

 

Rivers

Overall: 3.7, First 6 seasons: 3.3, Post 6th season: 4.4

 

Cutler

Overall: 3.4, First 6 seasons: 3.2, Post 6th season: 3.8

 

 

The numbers seem to somewhat support Dave Mcbride's view. Though Brady still has a statistically anomalous improvement of 2.0, many of the QBs improved their FPS rate after their first 6 seasons. Rivers had the second highest with a 1.1 improvement, and Brees and E.Manning had a 0.9 improvement. Roethisberger again was an aberration in the reverse having a 1.7 regression.

 

Out of the 9 QBs looked at here, 5 had FPS rate improvement of above 0.5, with only 2 having a regression of greater than 0.5.

 

I honestly think that this is all rather inconclusive as it is possible that Brady's improvement after 2006 might well have simply been a statistical anomaly akin to that of Roethisberger's. The difference between the two however is that one really has no logical reasons as to why Big Ben didn't fumble much early in his career.......but with Brady we have the deflategate, gameball rule change and team fumble stats to supply an unsavory reason as to why his fumble rate improved so much at that point in his career.

 

 

For interest sake, here are all the QBs I looked at, and their career fumble rates in order from best to worst.

(I was very surprised by some of the results on this list.)

 

Rogers: 5.2

Orton: 5.0

A.Smith: 4.0

Roethisberger: 4.5

McNabb: 4.3

Palmer: 4.2

Flacco: 4.0

Romo: 4.0

P.Manning: 3.9

Brady: 3.8

Rivers: 3.7

Brees: 3.5

Cutler: 3.4

E.Manning: 3.3

Favre: 3.2

Warner: 2.5

[Mickey]

The "Lone Lockeroom Attendant" theory has come under harsh criticism from crime investigators who find several other theories to be far more likely. The lockeroom attendant in the security tape could be a just a patsy, set up to take the fall and divert attention away from more likely suspects. On the security tape, the attendant takes the balls from one location to another that is just out of view behind a counter they are calling "the formica knoll".The deflater is out of view for only 90 seconds. Tests were performed at Kramerica, Inc., a NY area testing lab, this past weekend using a random sample of lockeroom attendants and professional ball deflaters. This study showed that, on average, they each could deflate between 5 and 7 balls within 90 seconds. None were able to accomplish the near impossible task of deflating 11 of the 12 balls in only 90 seconds, suggesting the involvement of a second or even a third unknown deflater. If true, the involvement of multiple deflaters suggests some sort of conspiracy by high placed team officials to coordinate their actions. Investigators have taken statements from dozens of witnesses in the area who all reported hearing sounds they characterized as being similar to the sound of balls being vigorously sucked somewhere in the area of the formica knoll. For unknown reasons, officials have impounded the clothes Tom Brady wore to the stadium the day of the game consisting of a size 16 Chanel boucle skirt suit in watermelon pink with a matching pill box hat, stockings and white gloves.

[Fadingpain]

The "Lone Lockeroom Attendant" theory has come under harsh criticism from crime investigators who find several other theories to be far more likely. The lockeroom attendant in the security tape could be a just a patsy, set up to take the fall and divert attention away from more likely suspects. On the security tape, the attendant takes the balls from one location to another that is just out of view behind a counter they are calling "the formica knoll".The deflater is out of view for only 90 seconds. Tests were performed at Kramerica, Inc., a NY area testing lab, this past weekend using a random sample of lockeroom attendants and professional ball deflaters. This study showed that, on average, they each could deflate between 5 and 7 balls within 90 seconds. None were able to accomplish the near impossible task of deflating 11 of the 12 balls in only 90 seconds, suggesting the involvement of a second or even a third unknown deflater. If true, the involvement of multiple deflaters suggests some sort of conspiracy by high placed team officials to coordinate their actions. Investigators have taken statements from dozens of witnesses in the area who all reported hearing sounds they characterized as being similar to the sound of balls being vigorously sucked somewhere in the area of the formica knoll. For unknown reasons, officials have impounded the clothes Tom Brady wore to the stadium the day of the game consisting of a size 16 Chanel boucle skirt suit in watermelon pink with a matching pill box hat, stockings and white gloves.

...And this is just the tip of the iceberg.

 

Reports are now coming out of Kramerica that they found a missing 13th ball that was apparently just lying around in the ball bag with the others. This ball apparently contained properties of both an inflated and deflated ball, whatever that means. This "magic ball" is apparently being sent to a CIA research lab in Langley, VA for further testing.

 

The plot thickens.

[GG]

...And this is just the tip of the iceberg.

 

Reports are now coming out of Kramerica that they found a missing 13th ball that was apparently just lying around in the ball bag with the others. This ball apparently contained properties of both an inflated and deflated ball, whatever that means. This "magic ball" is apparently being sent to a CIA research lab in Langley, VA for further testing.

 

The plot thickens.

 

I think people are ignoring the vendetta Putin has against Kraft for publicly embarrassing him about the SuperBowl ring. I think the tape showed a Czech interior decorator walking alongside the ballboy.

[Keukasmallies]

The NFL will in all likelihood release the results of their fauxvestigation late some Friday afternoon at the same time the Army releases the Bowe Bergdahl report in order to hide under the skirts of the army's decision. Unfortunately for the fans of football, a court martial will not be a possible recommendation for Kraft, Brady nor Belichick.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Deflategate becomes Toiletgate

thornography.weei.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/toilet-Doug-Pensinger.jpg

Edited January 29, 2015 by BillsFan-4-Ever

[dave mcbride]

Having been inspired by fellow posters(mainly NoSaint and Dave Mcbride), I thought I would have a closer look at QB Fumble Per Sack rates from a larger sample of QBs. The reasons for doing this are to see if Brady's FPS improvements were an aberration, or if indeed there were other QBs who had similar improvements after the 2006 season......and also after their first 6 seasons(the number of years played by Brady prior to 2007).

 

This is a very simplistic study as QB fumbles will not always directly correlate to QB sacks. QB scrambles and miscommunication between QB and Center can add non-sack related fumbles......but it should give a decent basic view.

 

Below are the Fumble Per Sack rates.

(Numbers indicate how many sacks each QB takes per fumble. Numbers used are for total fumbles. I also limited results to QBs who had at least 3 good seasons prior to 2007 or 3 good seasons after 2006.)

 

Brady

Overall: 3.8, Pre-2007: 3.1, Post-2006: 5.1

 

P. Manning

Overall: 3.9, Pre-2007: 3.8, Post-2006: 4.0

 

Brees

Overall: 3.5, Pre-2007: 3.4, Post-2006: 3.6

 

E. Manning

Overall: 3.3, Pre-2007: 3.1, Post-2006: 3.3

 

Roethisberger

Overall: 5.4, Pre-2007: 11.0, Post-2006: 4.6

 

McNabb

Overall: 4.3, Pre-2007: 4.5, Post-2006: 4.1

 

Favre

Overall: 3.2, Pre-2007: 3.1, Post-2006: 3.6

 

Warner

Overall: 2.5, Pre-2007: 2.8, Post-2006: 2.1

 

 

As one can see, Brady is the only one with a significant improvement post-2006....and the only one with any major variance at all apart from Big Ben who seemed to be fumble proof in his first 3 seasons(2004-2006).

 

 

As 2006 was Brady's 6th season, I thought I would have a further look at some QBs first 6 good seasons compared to the rest of their careers. This will address the point that Dave brought up earlier that QBs could very well improve their fumble rate as they gained more experience.

 

 

Brady

Overall: 3.8, First 6 seasons: 3.1, Post 6th season: 5.1

 

P.Manning

Overall: 3.9, First 6 seasons: 3.8, Post 6th season: 3.9

 

Brees

Overall: 3.5, First 6 seasons: 3.1, Post 6th season: 4.0

 

E. Manning

Overall: 3.3, First 6 seasons: 2.9, Post 6th season: 3.8

 

Roethisberger

Overall: 5.4, First 6 seasons: 6.2, Post 6th season: 4.5

 

McNabb

Overall: 4.3, First 6 seasons: 4.7, Post 6th season: 4.0

 

Favre

Overall: 3.2, First 6 seasons: 3.3, Post 6th season: 3.1

 

Rivers

Overall: 3.7, First 6 seasons: 3.3, Post 6th season: 4.4

 

Cutler

Overall: 3.4, First 6 seasons: 3.2, Post 6th season: 3.8

 

 

The numbers seem to somewhat support Dave Mcbride's view. Though Brady still has a statistically anomalous improvement of 2.0, many of the QBs improved their FPS rate after their first 6 seasons. Rivers had the second highest with a 1.1 improvement, and Brees and E.Manning had a 0.9 improvement. Roethisberger again was an aberration in the reverse having a 1.7 regression.

 

Out of the 9 QBs looked at here, 5 had FPS rate improvement of above 0.5, with only 2 having a regression of greater than 0.5.

 

I honestly think that this is all rather inconclusive as it is possible that Brady's improvement after 2006 might well have simply been a statistical anomaly akin to that of Roethisberger's. The difference between the two however is that one really has no logical reasons as to why Big Ben didn't fumble much early in his career.......but with Brady we have the deflategate, gameball rule change and team fumble stats to supply an unsavory reason as to why his fumble rate improved so much at that point in his career.

 

 

For interest sake, here are all the QBs I looked at, and their career fumble rates in order from best to worst.

(I was very surprised by some of the results on this list.)

 

Rogers: 5.2

Orton: 5.0

A.Smith: 4.0

Roethisberger: 4.5

McNabb: 4.3

Palmer: 4.2

Flacco: 4.0

Romo: 4.0

P.Manning: 3.9

Brady: 3.8

Rivers: 3.7

Brees: 3.5

Cutler: 3.4

E.Manning: 3.3

Favre: 3.2

Warner: 2.5

Awesome post; thanks! As I mentioned somewhere in this thread, Orton's turtling tactic when on the verge of being sacked works.

Edited January 29, 2015 by dave mcbride

[NoSaint]

Awesome post; thanks! As I mentioned somewhere in this thread, Orton's turtling tactic when on the verge of being sacked works.

Dibs- as always, thanks for being the man with the numbers! I often have suspicions that I think are logical but can count on you to do good digging to see if I'm crazy or not. Whether or not we end up in the same camp at the end of this I very much appreciate being in the same camp of wanting to learn what's up instead of just wild accusations -- cheers

[RJ (not THAT RJ)]

The "Lone Lockeroom Attendant" theory has come under harsh criticism from crime investigators who find several other theories to be far more likely. The lockeroom attendant in the security tape could be a just a patsy, set up to take the fall and divert attention away from more likely suspects. On the security tape, the attendant takes the balls from one location to another that is just out of view behind a counter they are calling "the formica knoll".The deflater is out of view for only 90 seconds. Tests were performed at Kramerica, Inc., a NY area testing lab, this past weekend using a random sample of lockeroom attendants and professional ball deflaters. This study showed that, on average, they each could deflate between 5 and 7 balls within 90 seconds. None were able to accomplish the near impossible task of deflating 11 of the 12 balls in only 90 seconds, suggesting the involvement of a second or even a third unknown deflater. If true, the involvement of multiple deflaters suggests some sort of conspiracy by high placed team officials to coordinate their actions. Investigators have taken statements from dozens of witnesses in the area who all reported hearing sounds they characterized as being similar to the sound of balls being vigorously sucked somewhere in the area of the formica knoll. For unknown reasons, officials have impounded the clothes Tom Brady wore to the stadium the day of the game consisting of a size 16 Chanel boucle skirt suit in watermelon pink with a matching pill box hat, stockings and white gloves.

 

But did he go back.... and to the right?

[Alphadawg7]

Having been inspired by fellow posters(mainly NoSaint and Dave Mcbride), I thought I would have a closer look at QB Fumble Per Sack rates from a larger sample of QBs. The reasons for doing this are to see if Brady's FPS improvements were an aberration, or if indeed there were other QBs who had similar improvements after the 2006 season......and also after their first 6 seasons(the number of years played by Brady prior to 2007).

 

This is a very simplistic study as QB fumbles will not always directly correlate to QB sacks. QB scrambles and miscommunication between QB and Center can add non-sack related fumbles......but it should give a decent basic view.

 

Below are the Fumble Per Sack rates.

(Numbers indicate how many sacks each QB takes per fumble. Numbers used are for total fumbles. I also limited results to QBs who had at least 3 good seasons prior to 2007 or 3 good seasons after 2006.)

 

Brady

Overall: 3.8, Pre-2007: 3.1, Post-2006: 5.1

 

P. Manning

Overall: 3.9, Pre-2007: 3.8, Post-2006: 4.0

 

Brees

Overall: 3.5, Pre-2007: 3.4, Post-2006: 3.6

 

E. Manning

Overall: 3.3, Pre-2007: 3.1, Post-2006: 3.3

 

Roethisberger

Overall: 5.4, Pre-2007: 11.0, Post-2006: 4.6

 

McNabb

Overall: 4.3, Pre-2007: 4.5, Post-2006: 4.1

 

Favre

Overall: 3.2, Pre-2007: 3.1, Post-2006: 3.6

 

Warner

Overall: 2.5, Pre-2007: 2.8, Post-2006: 2.1

 

 

As one can see, Brady is the only one with a significant improvement post-2006....and the only one with any major variance at all apart from Big Ben who seemed to be fumble proof in his first 3 seasons(2004-2006).

 

 

As 2006 was Brady's 6th season, I thought I would have a further look at some QBs first 6 good seasons compared to the rest of their careers. This will address the point that Dave brought up earlier that QBs could very well improve their fumble rate as they gained more experience.

 

 

Brady

Overall: 3.8, First 6 seasons: 3.1, Post 6th season: 5.1

 

P.Manning

Overall: 3.9, First 6 seasons: 3.8, Post 6th season: 3.9

 

Brees

Overall: 3.5, First 6 seasons: 3.1, Post 6th season: 4.0

 

E. Manning

Overall: 3.3, First 6 seasons: 2.9, Post 6th season: 3.8

 

Roethisberger

Overall: 5.4, First 6 seasons: 6.2, Post 6th season: 4.5

 

McNabb

Overall: 4.3, First 6 seasons: 4.7, Post 6th season: 4.0

 

Favre

Overall: 3.2, First 6 seasons: 3.3, Post 6th season: 3.1

 

Rivers

Overall: 3.7, First 6 seasons: 3.3, Post 6th season: 4.4

 

Cutler

Overall: 3.4, First 6 seasons: 3.2, Post 6th season: 3.8

 

 

The numbers seem to somewhat support Dave Mcbride's view. Though Brady still has a statistically anomalous improvement of 2.0, many of the QBs improved their FPS rate after their first 6 seasons. Rivers had the second highest with a 1.1 improvement, and Brees and E.Manning had a 0.9 improvement. Roethisberger again was an aberration in the reverse having a 1.7 regression.

 

Out of the 9 QBs looked at here, 5 had FPS rate improvement of above 0.5, with only 2 having a regression of greater than 0.5.

 

I honestly think that this is all rather inconclusive as it is possible that Brady's improvement after 2006 might well have simply been a statistical anomaly akin to that of Roethisberger's. The difference between the two however is that one really has no logical reasons as to why Big Ben didn't fumble much early in his career.......but with Brady we have the deflategate, gameball rule change and team fumble stats to supply an unsavory reason as to why his fumble rate improved so much at that point in his career.

 

 

For interest sake, here are all the QBs I looked at, and their career fumble rates in order from best to worst.

(I was very surprised by some of the results on this list.)

 

Rogers: 5.2

Orton: 5.0

A.Smith: 4.0

Roethisberger: 4.5

McNabb: 4.3

Palmer: 4.2

Flacco: 4.0

Romo: 4.0

P.Manning: 3.9

Brady: 3.8

Rivers: 3.7

Brees: 3.5

Cutler: 3.4

E.Manning: 3.3

Favre: 3.2

Warner: 2.5

 

Honestly, I am pretty over this conversation, but I will just point out the obvious that for whatever reason you can't seem to understand.

 

Pre 2007 he played 6 years. 2007 to present 7 years (8th one he was hurt).

 

Guess what is included in those first 6 years? His first 3 years in the league. Guess whats included in the 7 years post 2007? The greatest QB of our generation playing in the prime of his career with some of the most talented offenses the league has ever seen in both talent and stats, including an excellent O Line.

 

So do you think its fair to use your sack rate, which includes a lesser Tom Brady at the start of his career with lesser talent on the offense those first 3 years against the 7 years of the prime of his career with IMMENSELY more talent around him? To be fair, thats a trick question because there is only one answer...its not fair. And if you think it is, then you are just on a witch hunt. I have already showed you how Welker fixed his punt and kick return fumbles in NE (those are the other teams balls, not ones that could be manipulated by the team) yet you refuse to believe coaching can fix fumbling. That tells me you probably haven't played the game. Tiki Barber is one of many who fixed fumbling issues. Its factual, and no amount of preaching that it isn't is going to change the fact that fumbling can be improved through coaching and emphasis.

 

This is why you have skewed and flawed data as not all is even close to being equal in the skill level of Tom nor the talent level of the offensive players around him in your two sample groups. To ignore the SIGNIFICANT difference in a young QB maturing and figuring the game out and a front office loading the team with talent like Moss, Welker, Gronk, Mankins and OL in general is grossly negligent in this discussion. And Brady fumbled a lot his first 3 years.

 

But, to each their own...we will have to agree to disagree.

[papazoid]

What does Bill Belichick's son do for the Patriots?

 

"Bill is a demanding guy," said running backs coach Ivan Fears. "All I'm going say is, just like anything else, whether Steve is the son or anybody else, if he's working for Bill, Bill is a demanding coach. Steve is learning, he's doing a hell of a job. That's got be a little tough for him, but I'm not going to go any further than that."

Pressed for details on Steve's daily duties, Fears laughed out loud: "I ain't getting into that one!"

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000465322/article/what-does-bill-belichicks-son-do-for-the-patriots

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

crawls around on his knees?

 

 

just what does a coaching assistant do? flattens rubs and scruffs up Tom's balls?

Edited January 30, 2015 by BillsFan-4-Ever

[K8prisoner]

 

Honestly, I am pretty over this conversation, but I will just point out the obvious that for whatever reason you can't seem to understand.

 

Pre 2007 he played 6 years. 2007 to present 7 years (8th one he was hurt).

 

Guess what is included in those first 6 years? His first 3 years in the league. Guess whats included in the 7 years post 2007? The greatest QB of our generation playing in the prime of his career with some of the most talented offenses the league has ever seen in both talent and stats, including an excellent O Line.

 

So do you think its fair to use your sack rate, which includes a lesser Tom Brady at the start of his career with lesser talent on the offense those first 3 years against the 7 years of the prime of his career with IMMENSELY more talent around him? To be fair, thats a trick question because there is only one answer...its not fair. And if you think it is, then you are just on a witch hunt. I have already showed you how Welker fixed his punt and kick return fumbles in NE (those are the other teams balls, not ones that could be manipulated by the team) yet you refuse to believe coaching can fix fumbling. That tells me you probably haven't played the game. Tiki Barber is one of many who fixed fumbling issues. Its factual, and no amount of preaching that it isn't is going to change the fact that fumbling can be improved through coaching and emphasis.

 

This is why you have skewed and flawed data as not all is even close to being equal in the skill level of Tom nor the talent level of the offensive players around him in your two sample groups. To ignore the SIGNIFICANT difference in a young QB maturing and figuring the game out and a front office loading the team with talent like Moss, Welker, Gronk, Mankins and OL in general is grossly negligent in this discussion. And Brady fumbled a lot his first 3 years.

 

But, to each their own...we will have to agree to disagree.

It's like wicked haaard to ignore the gushing praise over the defense of your home town team .. The head scratcher for me is why not just post with yer homies on the pats board instead of defending the actions a rival that was convicted of actually taping the bills teams signals and it's obvious to all here except you and watkins that your Heros are tainted again and again trying to game the rules instead of actually competing on the field ..

[CodeMonkey]

We finally know the truth.