David Lee comments on Geno vs EJ

[1billsfan]

Yeah I'm sure it was Marrone and Hackett coaching this kid to be erratic.

 

Even despite scheme and coaching, we saw EJ miss several throws that a player of his talent level and draft status shouldn't be missing as often as he was.

 

If EJ makes me or anyone else eat their words then great. It means he would have improved a great deal. The reality of the situation is that he wasn't good in his first two years and this will be his final shot to show us he can be a competent starting QB.

 

I haven't closed the door on him by any means but I'm also not going to pretend like we don't have enough information to form on opinion on him either.

 

When the defense knows the plays you are going to run before you run them and they have no fear of you taking them deep because deep throws are rare as can be and the running backs and offensive line have provided nothing in terms of establishing a running game and the head coach doesn’t want you to take any chances passing the football in tight spaces because he’s beyond frightened of interceptions so all you are left with are check down screens to the running backs and short passes to the wide receivers, what kind of QB play would you expect?

Doug Marrone was too much of a coward to let EJ play the way he was drafted in the first round to be played. I’d be shocked if Greg Roman doesn’t greatly improve EJ’s play this year simply by loosening the reigns and letting him run and throw it deep.

Do I know that EJ will take that next big step and firmly establish himself as the Bills starter? No, I’m just very happy that he will get a shot to perform in a real NFL offensive system unlike he had with Marrone and Hackett. I think he will get a lot better under Roman. If he doesn't then it's on to the next QB with no regrets.

[GunnerBill]

Lol I used favre as an archetype for a risk taker and cited geno as an example of that mentality, pointing out he's not as good. Never said they were comparably good. Lol talk about a "misread"

 

Even in the mentality sense I find it a laughable comparison. Look at what Geno is like when he throws a pick. Look at what Favre was like. I do not see any of the Favre "gunslinger" mentality in Geno at all. Geno Smith's problems as an NFL Quarterback are between the ears. I do not think he has the mental make up or the personality to succeed.

[DerekJ]

I don't think anyone has questioned his intelligence. He's very much Trent Edwards. Brains, athletic ability and terrified to make the slightest mistake.

 

This is it in a nutshell and it goes beyond just football. There are some people who simply do not trust their own judgment, even though they know the right thing to do. It's what makes the difference between being a leader and simply a face in the crowd. EJ needs to lead, if he's going to have any success as the Bills QB.

 

 

When the defense knows the plays you are going to run before you run them and they have no fear of you taking them deep because deep throws are rare as can be and the running backs and offensive line have provided nothing in terms of establishing a running game and the head coach doesn’t want you to take any chances passing the football in tight spaces because he’s beyond frightened of interceptions so all you are left with are check down screens to the running backs and short passes to the wide receivers, what kind of QB play would you expect?

Doug Marrone was too much of a coward to let EJ play the way he was drafted in the first round to be played. I’d be shocked if Greg Roman doesn’t greatly improve EJ’s play this year simply by loosening the reigns and letting him run and throw it deep.

Do I know that EJ will take that next big step and firmly establish himself as the Bills starter? No, I’m just very happy that he will get a shot to perform in a real NFL offensive system unlike he had with Marrone and Hackett. I think he will get a lot better under Roman. If he doesn't then it's on to the next QB with no regrets.

 

 

Yes, this will be interesting to watch and I wonder how much of EJ's indecision was impacted by the approach of the former coaching staff.

[eball]

 

Do I know that EJ will take that next big step and firmly establish himself as the Bills starter? No, I’m just very happy that he will get a shot to perform in a real NFL offensive system unlike he had with Marrone and Hackett. I think he will get a lot better under Roman. If he doesn't then it's on to the next QB with no regrets.

 

 

I don't know how any reasonable Bills fan could take issue with any part of this statement. Well said.

[Solomon Grundy]

It's very easy to say EJ is inaccurate if you actually put the tape on and watch the games. It's easy to make a player look great in a highlight video since that's the intended purpose...

The goal is to evaluate an entire body of work and not just basing an opinion on an 8 minute highlight video.

I have to say that EJs "inaccuracy" could've been attributed to his poor offensive line play. If you go back and look at the passes that were thrown accurately, he had time to set his feet and release the ball. Early in the season many thought that Brady was done as a NFL QB, but as soon as they fixed his offensive line (and deflated his footballs for him to grip better) he looked like the old Tom Terrific.

[FireChan]

I have to say that EJs "inaccuracy" could've been attributed to his poor offensive line play. If you go back and look at the passes that were thrown accurately, he had time to set his feet and release the ball. Early in the season many thought that Brady was done as a NFL QB, but as soon as they fixed his offensive line (and deflated his footballs for him to grip better) he looked like the old Tom Terrific.

Every QB looks great with 6 seconds in the pocket.

[Solomon Grundy]

Because every QB, good or bad, has a sweet high light video.

OK Chan, find me a highlight video of Geno Smith (in the NFL) that makes him look good that lasts more than 6 minutes without looping a segment. Or better yet Matt Leinart and Jordan Palmer

Edited January 23, 2015 by the skycap

[Mr. WEO]

Lee brough him in to read a few pamphlets huh?

 

Sweet. You see, that's how you do it. That's how a top coach stays around in this league

[Bangarang]

 

 

When the defense knows the plays you are going to run before you run them and they have no fear of you taking them deep because deep throws are rare as can be and the running backs and offensive line have provided nothing in terms of establishing a running game and the head coach doesn’t want you to take any chances passing the football in tight spaces because he’s beyond frightened of interceptions so all you are left with are check down screens to the running backs and short passes to the wide receivers, what kind of QB play would you expect?

Doug Marrone was too much of a coward to let EJ play the way he was drafted in the first round to be played. I’d be shocked if Greg Roman doesn’t greatly improve EJ’s play this year simply by loosening the reigns and letting him run and throw it deep.

Do I know that EJ will take that next big step and firmly establish himself as the Bills starter? No, I’m just very happy that he will get a shot to perform in a real NFL offensive system unlike he had with Marrone and Hackett. I think he will get a lot better under Roman. If he doesn't then it's on to the next QB with no regrets.

 

 

Look, I'm not going to disagree with you about Marrone and his conservativeness holding EJ back. I absolutely agree with you and think Marrone got in EJ's head too much and wanted him to be conservative as well. But, we also have to be objective and acknowledge the fact that this kid had/has a problem with accuracy in his first 2 years. That can't just be attributed to scheme and dismissed. It's lazy and it's a cop out.

 

I have hope that with proper coaching and scheme that EJ will develop and his game will improve.

 

I have to say that EJs "inaccuracy" could've been attributed to his poor offensive line play. If you go back and look at the passes that were thrown accurately, he had time to set his feet and release the ball. Early in the season many thought that Brady was done as a NFL QB, but as soon as they fixed his offensive line (and deflated his footballs for him to grip better) he looked like the old Tom Terrific.

 

Why would you put inaccuracy in quotes like it's some mythical thing we're talking about. Again, EJ had issues with accuracy. Let's not pretend like that wasn't the case. Part of it is absolutely because of poor offensive line play and there is no denying that. But also not pretend like this kid didn't miss badly several times with a clean pocket and time throw.

 

Even on throws that were completions there are several instances where EJ's ball placement is very poor.

 

For instance:

 

Here we have Woods running a dig route and is making his break at the top of the screen at the 43 yard line. He's open here and a well thrown ball converts a nice completion. EJ has a clean pocket as he's making his throw.

 

 

 

Here's a shot of Woods as he comes out of his break with the ball in the air. He's open.

 

 

 

Look at the adjustment Woods has to make on this ball. The end result is an incompletion on what should have been an easy pitch and catch.

 

Another example:

 

This is going to be a WR screen to Woods with Sammy and Williams blocking in front.

 

 

 

 

Woods flares out and is anticipating the ball. His blockers are setting up and he should be able to catch that ball and turn it up field for a solid gain.

 

 

 

 

EJ is under absolutely no duress. He has all the space in the world to turn, set his feet and make a good throw. Instead, his throw is behind Woods to the point that he has to completely turn his back to the defense in order to adjust and make the catch. Instead of being able to catch it and go, Woods' momentum stops and what could have been an 8 yard gain only ends up going for 3.

 

 

 

These are just a few examples of the little things in terms of inaccuracy. I'm not even talking about badly missed receivers here. These are plays in which the potential was greater than the outcome and poorly placed balls were at fault.

 

Part of this could be a footwork issue and I hope a guy like David Lee can work with EJ and get him fundamentally sound in that regard.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

The problem I have is that accuracy typically ist teachable...you either have it or you don't. A 58% completion rate might have worked in 1988, but when you are giving up 4-8% to most other QBs in the NFL its hard to overcome that ons game in game out basis. Not to mention his ball placement on many throws, even easy ones, leaves a lot to be desired...

 

Two points, Matter:

1) many successful QB in the league have a 58-59% completion rate their first years in the league. Drew Brees first 3 years in the league (28 games) was average of 59% (and he only played 1 game his first year). Peyton Manning first year (16 games) was 56.7%. I'm not saying EJ will become Brees or Manning, I'm just pointing out the factual basis for people who say that you really can't tell for sure what a QB has or doesn't have based on his first 14 games in the league.

2) laypeople, myself included, tend to notice and react much more strongly to inaccurate or poorly placed throws from "our guy". The fact is, if you look objectively, all QB have these poor "ball placement" throws, including the best. Look at Wilson's first half against GB! OMG! Yet when it counted, he threw laser guided missiles. Again, not saying EJ will become Wilson, or Flacco, or Eli Manning. Just saying the question isn't ball placement on every throw or missing wide open receivers at times, because all QB throw ducks and misplace balls sometimes. It comes down to why is it off, how many of the throws are off, and can he get it done in the clutch because given sufficient intelligence and willingness to prepare, those 3 questions are the difference between a good QB and a career journeyman like Orton or Fitz.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Bottom line up front. I exclude Fitzpatrick and Orton, because Fitzpatrick wasn't technically the starter, he WAS the starter; it also seems clear Orton was signed with the intention of starting him as soon as he got some grasp on the playbook and Manuel stumbled.

 

Those are fair arguments to make. However, both Orton and Fitzpatrick were back-ups the season before. I would contend that both of them are high-end back up players and are germane to this discussion.

 

That leaves us with 7 names. There are 32 teams in the league. Manuel is on one of those teams. That means there are at least 24 teams where either you don't think the backup is better than Manuel, or we don't have enough info to know. I would argue that simple fact of math alone would say that EJ has value as a QB, at least as a backup.

 

Those are merely the players the actually saw starting time. Only the individual teams' FOs knows if guys like Brock Osweiler are serviceable back-ups. But you have muddied my point. I'm not arguing that EJ has zero value as a back-up or even that he cannot become a good back-up, only that he may not even be there yet as a quality back-up, looking at how some of the other back-ups have performed. Suffice it to say, if I had the choice of any of those guys on my list over EJ as my back-up QB, I'd take them. And even some of those who were not on my list, like Matt Moore. IMO, EJ is not on this team because of what he has been doing, but what he could be doing if he grew to realize his potential.

 

Now as to the actual facts, here's a tabulation of how these QB have historically performed over their career. Let's just look at numbers, because frankly I think arguments can be made against total QBR and rating. Austin Davis intrigues me - as a UDFA, he came in and did very well, but also he's got the most limited sample size and it's not uncommon for a QB to "regress" as opponents get more film on him. For the rest...do you really want to argue that Glennon's 6.5 YPA is superior to Manuel's 6.4 YPA, or that his 58.8% completions are superior to Manuel's 58.6%? Or that Whitehurst's 55.6% completions and 6.3 YPA are clearly superior? For that matter, while I think both Davis and Cousins had superior YPA, I'm not sure that statistically, 6.4 and 6.7 YPA are really different numbers - there are so many variables that go into them aside from the QB's level of skill.

 

The same argument against Austin Davis could be made against EJ and 2014 was simply the start of his regression. I don't think going by careers paints the whole story. Charlie Whitehurst is 7 years removed from when he started, how much of his game is the same as his first year or two? Glennon has shown to have gotten better since last year, while EJ has gotten worse. I tend to favor the most recent years as more relevant than entire careers.

 

I would also disagree with the insignificance of the YPA stat. The difference in .1 of the YPA stat could be one more 80 yard TD pass a season. I will show you an example using EJ's numbers as a baseline. He has 14 games, so it will be a little bit of an overestimation, but I think you'll agree it's close enough. He has 437 career attempts for 2,810 yards for 6.43 YPA. If we add 1 attempt for 80 yards, he gets 438 attempts for 2890 yards, which results in a 6.598 YPA. That's almost a .2 increase for one more big play. How many years do we see, "we could've made the playoffs with 1 or 2 more plays?" Almost every year. I wouldn't discount it as insignificant, an improvement is an improvement and the more big plays, the better.

 

Hi Firechan,

I think all we can go on - or maybe I should say all I feel it's reasonable to go on - is the status of a QB this past year, starter or backup? Because if we are going to go by career, it just gets too confusing. Is Hasselbeck a career starter, even though he's a backup now, because he was a starter most of his career? Schaub? What about Sanchez, a multi year starter?

 

I can go along with the point that EJ may not be what Orton or Fitz or possibly Whitehurst are as backups today. Fitz for one was quoted on the record as saying he couldn't do what he did under Gailey his first several years in the league. Orton might say the same - he was quoted as saying that being benched had ultimately helped his career, which kind of amounts to the same thing. But there seemed to be an implication of doubt, based on film, that he could ever become same. Sorry if I misunderstood your implication.

 

My main point is that looking at all these statistics, I think it's very tenuous to claim that most of the QB you named are better than EJ, and not supported by facts. For a game or two, sure, but EJ has had good and bad games, and bad games followed by good. I really don't know what to think of the performance EJ had this year, but looking at the lack of run game, the OL's struggles, and Orton the last half of the season I think the best that can be said is that the jury on EJ is still out, way out.

 

You misunderstand my point about YPA. I would never argue that YPA isn't a significant stat. My point is that YPA has a number of other factors folded into it - YAC, the design of the offensive scheme, the quality of the wideouts. You had made the assertion that all these QB outdid EJ in YPA, and my point stands that it's unclear that the difference between 6.5 or even 6.7 YPA are really statistically significant indicators of QB quality.

 

Sorry, I can't buy the point about one more 80 yd completion. When one thing is different, the rest of the game is different. One more 80 yd completion can mean 3 more 80 yd attempts, one of which resulted in a sack and another in an INT (a lot of the QB you name have significantly worse TD/INT ratios).

[billykaykay]

Even his most ardent supporters would concede his report card has some "needs improvement" grades in important areas. I'm saying in his next starts (assuming he gets any) I have no idea what we'll see, after what would earliest be almost a year on the bench. The entire range from sharp as a tack to dud is possible. And if we're going to dump guys after 2 seasons for not performing to their draft status then dareus would have been gone too.

Most of us would agree that EJ is inaccurate. If he is inaccurate because he simply can't hit an open receiver (not likely) , then there is little hope. However, if he is inaccurate because of a lack of confidence causing him to overthink the whole process which should be 2nd nature (more likely), then there is hope. I used to be negative on EJ, but am coming around to the lack of confidence scenario.

[DirtDart]

There was a huge difference between this year, and last. Particularly in his throwing motion. He played a lot better his rookie year. I honestly believe they tried to change his entire game. You could tell EJ was over thinking the process this year. Plus the putrid Offensive line didn't help matters.

Edited January 24, 2015 by DirtDart