Max Fischer Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 The NFL will be a pass oriented league until it's not.
JeebusCrust Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 Not necessarily a pass oriented league. Even teams that were known for their passing attack, such as GB and NE, have shown that they are capable of a considerable running game... Seattle is more known for their running but has a QB that can make the thrown when needed. It shows that it's not just a passing oriented league, its becoming more balanced. If we can find a capable quarterback who can manage the game and make the necessary throws, then we could possibly find our team playing this time next year. Doesn't have to be "elite" just better than the average Joe and better than what we've put out on the field so far
Charles Romes Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 My apologies if this has been said in another post, but the article linked below was just published in the NY Times today (Sunday, Jan. 18). Like most everyone else, I think the hiring of Ryan and Roman was an excellent move by the Bills. One thing I worry about is the "ground and pound" philosophy that Ryan and Roman want to bring. Does that approach win anymore? I hope that it does and could, but suspect that it is outdated by rule changes in the NFL. This NY Times article shows the statistics, all brought about by new rules meant to protect the QB and WR: 9 QB's had 30 or more touchdowns this year. NINE!!!!. Compare that to ZERO in 2002, and ONE in 2003, 2005, and 2006. As the article suggests, isn't a passing offense with an elite QB now a necessary (though not sufficient) condition for winning a championship? If so, why bother building a team for a running game, if you simply can't win a Superbowl with this mentality? Sure, we can be competitive, and make the playoffs, but we will ultimately be outscored by a team with a good defense and an high-octane passing offense. Witness the remaining teams in the playoffs. If all this is true, then the Bills and every other team should pull out all the stops to developing a high-octane passing offense. "Ground and pound" (at least the "ground" part) won't win anymore, and I am a bit worried that the Bills are setting themselves up for failure. I hear what you are saying but when it really mattered last year the refs let the great Seahawks secondary play football last year and that's what won them the championship. Refs also let us play against the league treasure Rodgers week 16. There was also the great no-call interference preserving the ravens championship. These things give me hope the league understands it needs to reward great secondary play.
Nikademus Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 (edited) As the trend shifts further towards passing teams and running teams become fewer and fewer, then you eventually see a point where running becomes more effective due to teams being ill prepared to deal with it. Whether it's due to personal choices or strategy, the run game can be a deciding factor at that time. Similar to the big WR leads to big CB which leads to faster WR and so on. Hopefully the Bills can still capitalize on this. I think it's already underway. Edited January 18, 2015 by Nikademus
ProcessAccepted Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 Strong defense + ground game + smart qb that protects the ball but can make timely plays = Seattle seahawks = super bowl Amen
dave mcbride Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 (edited) It does, but you still have to put yourself in the position to be around in January. Thats where 'It's a passing league' comes into play. You can win some games during the regular season throwing 45 times, but in a playoff game where both teams have their backs against the wall, you have to be able to mix it up effectively. I agree. Also, someone cited the pats from last year as an example. They did run it against indy, but that strategy was team-specific -- indy was terrible against the run. NE was a passing team that modulated their strategy based on the defense they were facing. They barely ran it all against the ravens last week. Also, the ravens won the sb in 2012 because of their playoff passing game, not their running game. They ran terribly against sf. And the giants were a HORRIBLE running team in 2011! As the trend shifts further towards passing teams and running teams become fewer and fewer, then you eventually see a point where running becomes more effective due to teams being ill prepared to deal with it. Whether it's due to personal choices or strategy, the run game can be a deciding factor at that time. Similar to the big WR leads to big CB which leads to faster WR and so on. Hopefully the Bills can still capitalize on this. I think it's already underway. I disagree simply because it's far easier to score tds through the passing game than a run-heavy approach. It's no surprise that the good teams in the nfl are almost all pass-oriented teams. Edited January 18, 2015 by dave mcbride
Jkgobills Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 The NFL rules in regards to hitting the QB, hitting the WR, and coverage penalties have all been modified to favor passing over the run game for the past 10 seasons. This is combined with the league wide adoption of offenses that rely on quick hitting passes, in place of some run plays. Defenses have adjusted with line backers and safeties who favor pass coverage/ field coverage skills over run stopping skills. If I may use Kiko Alonso as an example....a 3 down line backer, who the Bills drafted specifically to help stop the Pats and their 2 TE attack (Hernandez was not yet charged with multiple murder when the Bills drafted Alonso). Kiko proved to be a very good line backer during his rookie season, but his weakest skill was against the run game. When teams pounded it on the ground right at him. If you can, recall how worn down he looked by the end of the season. Having Jairus Byrd playing safety behind him was another example of pass defense skills over run stopping skills. The point being that the Buffalo Bills, like most every NFL team, now draft defensive players to try to slow down the new style NFL offenses and their passing attacks. Linebackers and safeties who's body types are more suited to running with and covering the basketball players turned into TEs, the RBs out if the back field, and WRs in multiple receiver sets. Inevitably this will leave them more vulnerable to the running game. The NFL game strategies go in cycles. For the 17 of 32 NFL teams who would prefer an upgrade of their QB, a ground and pound attack (which by today's NFL would be 50/50 split if run and pass) may be just the right fit.
KRT88 Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 Ground and pound us great if you are ahead. Now down 21-3 make it challenging. Having the ability to throw down field and score quickly certainly has it's benefits. However in reverse, if you are up 21-3, really helps prevent comebacks when you control ball on the ground.
jahbonas Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 Look closer at the salaries of superbowl winning qb's. Tom Brady and Wilson and big ben are fine at 2million/year operating a talented team. Up that salary towards 18million and remove 16 million in salary from the rest of the team and you get a qb with stats and no rings
1billsfan Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 (edited) As the trend shifts further towards passing teams and running teams become fewer and fewer, then you eventually see a point where running becomes more effective due to teams being ill prepared to deal with it. Whether it's due to personal choices or strategy, the run game can be a deciding factor at that time. Similar to the big WR leads to big CB which leads to faster WR and so on. Hopefully the Bills can still capitalize on this. I think it's already underway. The good teams always tailor their offense to the players they have on the roster. People are bringing up Seattle as a "ground and pound" attack, but their QB had 112 carries for almost 1000 yards. Their rushing yards and attempts are skewed because Russell Wilson is a unique player used in a unique way that's successful. The threat of Wilson running the ball on the outside is what gives Lynch much more room to have success with carries up the middle. I think the Bills have a mix of offensive talent between that of Seattle and Pittsburgh. The Bills have a QB like Seattle's Russell Wilson in EJ Manuel who should be able to have success running with the ball 6-8 times a game. He won't be as good as Wilson, but he should be good enough that he'd be a constant threat for the opposing defense to account for on every play. The Bills also have a WR like Pitt's Antonio Brown in Sammy Watkins who needs to get 10-12 targets a game, doing this opens things up in the middle. Incorporating both of these strategies into the offense would open up much bigger holes for the RBs and the "ground and pound" part of the attack. This is how I see the new offense working, Creating a working offense with the skills your players have rather than saying we're ground and pound and just running the ball into 8 man fronts for three yard gains. The only team I see built for a true "ground and pound" attack is the Dallas Cowboys, but to get a offensive line like that you have to draft O lineman high in the draft over and over again. So instead of doing that just tailor the offense to the talent we already have. Edited January 18, 2015 by 1billsfan
Profitspro Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 (edited) A top ranked defence, adequate QB play, and good special teams play can overcome the lack of an elite QB, Seattle is an example of this. If we are able to protect or QB next season with good OL play and our D improves to #1 or at best remain at # 4 we will have a good shot at making the playoffs next season. As you all know if is not necessarily the team with the best QB (last year Manning vs Seattle) in the playoff that win the Superbowl but the team with a dominant D and playmakers on that D who usually prevail 2014 Seattle and the legion of Boom, 2013, Baltimore with Ray Lewis, and 2012 Giants with their dominant D/L featuring Michael Strahan and company. You may say that in 2012 Eli with his clutch plays won it but remember that it was their D that sacked, hurried and made life difficult for Brady that won it for the Giants. If the Bills could have a choice between going into the Superbowl with a Seattle type D or have Manning and not a dominant D I submit that having a Seattle type D and an adequate QB such as a Russell Wilson, Flacco or Colin Kaepernick present the better scenario for success. Edited January 18, 2015 by Profitspro
Rockinon Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 (edited) My apologies if this has been said in another post, but the article linked below was just published in the NY Times today (Sunday, Jan. 18). Like most everyone else, I think the hiring of Ryan and Roman was an excellent move by the Bills. One thing I worry about is the "ground and pound" philosophy that Ryan and Roman want to bring. Does that approach win anymore? I hope that it does and could, but suspect that it is outdated by rule changes in the NFL. This NY Times article shows the statistics, all brought about by new rules meant to protect the QB and WR: 9 QB's had 30 or more touchdowns this year. NINE!!!!. Compare that to ZERO in 2002, and ONE in 2003, 2005, and 2006. As the article suggests, isn't a passing offense with an elite QB now a necessary (though not sufficient) condition for winning a championship? If so, why bother building a team for a running game, if you simply can't win a Superbowl with this mentality? Sure, we can be competitive, and make the playoffs, but we will ultimately be outscored by a team with a good defense and an high-octane passing offense. Witness the remaining teams in the playoffs. If all this is true, then the Bills and every other team should pull out all the stops to developing a high-octane passing offense. "Ground and pound" (at least the "ground" part) won't win anymore, and I am a bit worried that the Bills are setting themselves up for failure. The Bills have one of the leagues best pass defenses. Games like the one against GB show just how great this defense is. Now just think how much better the Bills would be if they could just be successful running the ball. When you run, you are chewing up more clock and preventing these top QBs in the league from having as many opportunities. It's a sound philosophy. The fact that Roman brought back 1980s running schemes with so much success indicates that today's defenses are no longer prepared for such concepts. It's not just about running the ball, though. It's about having a powerful defense to go with it. Also, it's a necessary plan. The Bills are very unlikely to build a high octane passing attack without a passing machine QB like what you are dreaming of. That being said though, doesn't mean that the offense is going to abandon the pass. When you have receivers like Sammy and Robert on the roster, you use them. The big difference is instead of passing to set up the run, you are instead running to set up the pass. Make no mistake. Just because a ground and pound offense is installed, doesn't mean that the rest of the offense will be ignored. I can see Roman digging up playbooks from some of Buffalo's archives. If he thinks Walsh's running concepts were incredible, wait until he gets a good look at Buffalo's. Buffalo has an amazing history utilizing the rushing attack. Defenses today have been adapting with aggressive schemes designed to stop the pass. That aggressiveness can come back to bite you. One way to exploit those aggressive defenses is by using the running plays that no one remembers anymore. Today the pass is all the rage. Tomorrow that may not be true. Edited January 18, 2015 by Rockinon
hondo in seattle Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 (edited) I think some of the early posters nailed this. First of all, Rex is planning to be a ground-and-pound team because we don't currently have an answer at QB. Second, ground-and-pound can still win in the NFL. Seattle has been in the top five for rushing attempts for the past three years. Pete Carroll clearly believes in ground-and-pound and I believe in Pete Carroll. Edited January 18, 2015 by hondo in seattle
Beef Jerky Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 Yea and no... Every team people will mention had QBs that played well also.
The Big Cat Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 I'm only counting eight quarterbacks that threw 30+ TD's, but that's beside the point. More importantly, let's look at those eight: Brady, Rodgers, Luck, Brees, Big Ben, Manning, Romo and Rivers. If we want to count Eli, he had 29 and he's the ninth on the list. So let's count him. Take Luck out of the equation, and what's the common denominator? They're all over 30 years old. Number 10 is Ryan (29 years old), number 11 was Cutler (31 years old). So, by OP's logic, if we want to win, we have to have a QB who's 30+ years old throw 30+ TD's.
Beef Jerky Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 (edited) I'm only counting eight quarterbacks that threw 30+ TD's, but that's beside the point. More importantly, let's look at those eight: Brady, Rodgers, Luck, Brees, Big Ben, Manning, Romo and Rivers. If we want to count Eli, he had 29 and he's the ninth on the list. So let's count him. Take Luck out of the equation, and what's the common denominator? They're all over 30 years old. Number 10 is Ryan (29 years old), number 11 was Cutler (31 years old). So, by OP's logic, if we want to win, we have to have a QB who's 30+ years old throw 30+ TD's. I think it's more about turnovers then number of TDs. If you don't have a good QB and want to ground and pound you better hope your QB doesn't turn the ball over much. The better your QB the more mistakes your team can make and still win. This ground and pound technique needs defensive turnovers and not many offensive turnovers. Edited January 18, 2015 by Beef Jerky
Buffaloed in Pa Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 Better have one hell of a O-line and power back,that doesn`t get hurt easily. Same old same old. THEY WILL STACK THE LINE. Even more with a poor QB. We all know this.
Pneumonic Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 Ground and pound can win provided it's not at the expense of being able to pass. It is a QB league; the rules have seen to it. Just look at the QB's in this years playoffs ......a grouping that includes the best in the game (the final 4 includes the 4 best QB's in the game in fact). Some of these teams also have VG to excellent defenses which, simply makes them that much more of a difficult out.
1billsfan Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 I think some of the early posters nailed this. First of all, Rex is planning to be a ground-and-pound team because we don't currently have an answer at QB. Second, ground-and-pound can still win in the NFL. Seattle has been in the top five for rushing attempts for the past three years. In fact, they ran it more than anyone this year. Pete Carroll clearly believes in ground-and-pound and I believe in Pete Carroll. I'll say it again, Seattle's QB rushed the ball 112 times. Having a QB run it that many times is not a true "ground and pound" offense. If you want a true winning "ground and pound" attack then you need Dallas' offensive line. The Bills clearly don't have Dallas' offensive line (not even close) or the RB so I highly doubt that Rex is planning the "ground and pound" attack that you are imagining. The Bills are going to run the ball with their RBs, Manuel and Watkins on end arounds so it's not going to be a true "ground and pound" attack. They are going to use misdirection and surprise than pounding the defensive 8 man front into the ground. They simply do not have the players to do that so it would be a mistake to do it anyways. Also, expect a LOT of passes to Watkins this year. Rex loves him.
hondo in seattle Posted January 18, 2015 Posted January 18, 2015 I'm only counting eight quarterbacks that threw 30+ TD's, but that's beside the point. More importantly, let's look at those eight: Brady, Rodgers, Luck, Brees, Big Ben, Manning, Romo and Rivers. If we want to count Eli, he had 29 and he's the ninth on the list. So let's count him. Take Luck out of the equation, and what's the common denominator? They're all over 30 years old. Number 10 is Ryan (29 years old), number 11 was Cutler (31 years old). So, by OP's logic, if we want to win, we have to have a QB who's 30+ years old throw 30+ TD's. Let's take it a step further... EJ will be 25 at the start of the season. All we have to do is wait five more years... and hope during those years he develops the skills to throw for 30 TDs.
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