BillsFan-4-Ever Posted January 15, 2015 Posted January 15, 2015 no shoulda, woulda and coulda The Bills passed on Russell Wilson period end of story. just stating a fact.
QCity Posted January 15, 2015 Posted January 15, 2015 no shoulda, woulda and coulda The Bills passed on Russell Wilson period end of story. just stating a fact. Every team in the league passed on Wilson. Twice.
timstep Posted January 15, 2015 Author Posted January 15, 2015 Your stats merely tell you that you have to have a good TEAM to win the Super Bowl. This isn't about having a franchise QB because you know what? When a guy is on a good team with talent all around him, he more often than not develops into a franchise QB. You really think Brady would still be in the league if he had played on a team like the current Bucs or Titans? Why do you think Kelly despised the idea of coming to Buffalo? The QB has to have a good TEAM around him to win football games consistently. Period. Of course there are multiple factors, and many things have to align like the right coach, and scheme, and surrounding players. But if you swapped Orton and Luck this year, do you think the Bills would be better and the Colts would be worse, or that the skill level and physical ability of those players plays not part in the overall success of the team? no shoulda, woulda and coulda The Bills passed on Russell Wilson period end of story. just stating a fact. I don't even understand your point, which makes sense, because anyone who has watched Big Ben and doesn't think the guy is a franchise QB is defying reality.
Casey D Posted January 15, 2015 Posted January 15, 2015 The shoulda, woulda and coulda's with this team and the draft are astounding. I still remember screaming at my car radio when they passed on Nick Mangold to draft John McCargo. A team that had just let Trey Teague go in favor of Melvin Fowler. Every team has plenty of what-ifs when it comes to the draft, but few teams have been hurt as badly by those decisions as the Bills in the 15 years. The problem is there are only about a dozen human beings that can play QB in the NFL at a reasonably high level-- Brady, both Mannings, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Luck, Romo, Wilson, Rodgers, Brees and Ryan. And not all these guys are great, just pretty good or better. There are another 5-7 that are servicable, but not very good. That means at least half the teams don't have a guy at all. It's reality. Finding a good QB-- one of the 12 or so, is mostly a matter of pure luck, either lucky in getting a guy with a lower pick or having the #1 pick when P. Manning or Luck come out. No one knows who will be one of the rare 12, if you knew it you could try and get a good QB with some certitude. But it is all largely guesswork, and waiting around for you lottery ticket to hit is not a viable strategy. You should keep buying those lottery tickets, but you need to do the best you can as a team with mediocre QB play, because that is what most teams are forced to do given the lack of men who can effectively play QB at the NFL level.
The Big Cat Posted January 15, 2015 Posted January 15, 2015 45 25 15 10 5 year old data is worthless in evaluating what will work and what won't work next year in the NFL.
metzelaars_lives Posted January 15, 2015 Posted January 15, 2015 Rex Grossman did not win a championship. Brad Johnson did. You don't go back very far do you. Plenty of qb's with lesser statures than Joe flacco have gone to and won super bowls. Hell Vince ferragamo was the rams' starting qb against the steelers.
timstep Posted January 15, 2015 Author Posted January 15, 2015 The problem is there are only about a dozen human beings that can play QB in the NFL at a reasonably high level-- Brady, both Mannings, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Luck, Romo, Wilson, Rodgers, Brees and Ryan. And not all these guys are great, just pretty good or better. There are another 5-7 that are servicable, but not very good. That means at least half the teams don't have a guy at all. It's reality. Finding a good QB-- one of the 12 or so, is mostly a matter of pure luck, either lucky in getting a guy with a lower pick or having the #1 pick when P. Manning or Luck come out. No one knows who will be one of the rare 12, if you knew it you could try and get a good QB with some certitude. But it is all largely guesswork, and waiting around for you lottery ticket to hit is not a viable strategy. You should keep buying those lottery tickets, but you need to do the best you can as a team with mediocre QB play, because that is what most teams are forced to do given the lack of men who can effectively play QB at the NFL level. I totally agree with you - keep buying lottery tickets. Remember the year the Redskins drafted RGIII? They also drafted Kirk Cousins. As insane as it sounds, maybe it's time to start drafting a couple QBs every year. I mean, you're right, you're trying to hit lightning in the proverbial bottle, so you don't fire one shot every other year, you fire multiple. Andrew Luck was pretty much the only no-miss QB in the last 10 years, the Colts knew he was a stud. I know it's crazy, but has anything else propelled this team to a playoff spot in the last 15 years? Or the Browns? Or any number of other mediocre franchises?
metzelaars_lives Posted January 15, 2015 Posted January 15, 2015 Of course there are multiple factors, and many things have to align like the right coach, and scheme, and surrounding players. But if you swapped Orton and Luck this year, do you think the Bills would be better and the Colts would be worse, or that the skill level and physical ability of those players plays not part in the overall success of the team? I don't even understand your point, which makes sense, because anyone who has watched Big Ben and doesn't think the guy is a franchise QB is defying reality. no one ever does.
timstep Posted January 15, 2015 Author Posted January 15, 2015 Rex Grossman did not win a championship. Brad Johnson did. You don't go back very far do you. Plenty of qb's with lesser statures than Joe flacco have gone to and won super bowls. Hell Vince ferragamo was the rams' starting qb against the steelers. My bad, I misstated on Grossman, he did GET to a SB. The statistics in the Freakonomics articles are for 45 years worth of stats, choosing anecdotal examples at a time when defenses could maul WRs and TEs at the line, as opposed the current NFL, is not really relevant.
Casey D Posted January 15, 2015 Posted January 15, 2015 I totally agree with you - keep buying lottery tickets. Remember the year the Redskins drafted RGIII? They also drafted Kirk Cousins. As insane as it sounds, maybe it's time to start drafting a couple QBs every year. I mean, you're right, you're trying to hit lightning in the proverbial bottle, so you don't fire one shot every other year, you fire multiple. Andrew Luck was pretty much the only no-miss QB in the last 10 years, the Colts knew he was a stud. I know it's crazy, but has anything else propelled this team to a playoff spot in the last 15 years? Or the Browns? Or any number of other mediocre franchises? No, and the additional problem is Washington totally crapped out taking RG III and Cousins, and it has set them back considerably. Every lottery ticket you buy means you don't buy other necessities like OL DL etc. It is a very big problem in the NFL right now, especially when it appears if you don't have one of the 12 you have no chance at a championship-- playoffs perhaps but not the big prize. If that does not change, if there is not some QB revival, the popularity of the NFL may decline because the same QBs/teams are always the only ones who can win the SB. It gets old.
Formerly Allan in MD Posted January 15, 2015 Posted January 15, 2015 Quarterbacks matter; so do defenses, probably more so as others have mentioned.
timstep Posted January 15, 2015 Author Posted January 15, 2015 45 25 15 10 5 year old data is worthless in evaluating what will work and what won't work next year in the NFL. In many ways you're right, because as the league office tilts the rules even more towards offense and passing to drive up scoring and make the game more exciting, the few below-average QBs who led teams to Super Bowls in the past become even more irrelevant to the current day game.
The Big Cat Posted January 15, 2015 Posted January 15, 2015 In many ways you're right, because as the league office tilts the rules even more towards offense and passing to drive up scoring and make the game more exciting, the few below-average QBs who led teams to Super Bowls in the past become even more irrelevant to the current day game. I have to disagree with the second half of your statement given the last three quarterbacks to win the Super Bowl.
billsfan1959 Posted January 15, 2015 Posted January 15, 2015 (edited) I always love this talk about running out and getting a "franchise" QB - as if you can just pick one up anywhere. Below is a chart of the 2014 QBs (with the year they were drafted) that finished in the top 12 in QBR, Yards, and/or Touchdowns There are a total of 15 QBS that were in the top 12 in one or more of those three categories. Of those 15, only 4 were drafted after 2008, and only three in the last five years: Andrew Luck (in top 12 in all three categories), Russell Wilson (12th in QBR), and Ryan Tannehil (11th in YDS). Of the QBS that placed in the top 10 in all three categories, NONE were drafted after 2005. Everyone wants a franchise QB; however, they really do not come along all that often. And there are a lot of people blaming the front office for not getting a top QB. So, over the last 5 years, which top QB would you have liked for them to get? This list contains 15 starting QBS out of 32. These are ALL of the above average QBs in the NFL - and only 3 of them were available. They were not going to get Luck. So, that leaves Wilson, who 1) nobody really saw his potential and 2) has not had to carry a team yet - so, the jury is still out; or Tannehill. Of the other QBs that have been drafted over the last five years - they all have question marks and there are no sure bets. So, until the Bills find one, they better concentrate on a top defense and a top running game... Edited January 15, 2015 by billsfan1959
FireChan Posted January 15, 2015 Posted January 15, 2015 I have to disagree with the second half of your statement given the last three quarterbacks to win the Super Bowl. Russel Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Eli Manning are below average?
timstep Posted January 15, 2015 Author Posted January 15, 2015 No, and the additional problem is Washington totally crapped out taking RG III and Cousins, and it has set them back considerably. Every lottery ticket you buy means you don't buy other necessities like OL DL etc. It is a very big problem in the NFL right now, especially when it appears if you don't have one of the 12 you have no chance at a championship-- playoffs perhaps but not the big prize. If that does not change, if there is not some QB revival, the popularity of the NFL may decline because the same QBs/teams are always the only ones who can win the SB. It gets old. The odds of filling holes with free agency, late round picks and undrafted free agents is far better with every other position than with QBs.
Casey D Posted January 15, 2015 Posted January 15, 2015 The odds of filling holes with free agency, late round picks and undrafted free agents is far better with every other position than with QBs. No question, but every wasted pick on a failed QB has the opportunity cost of not getting a good player that, as you say, are easier to find. If you do that consistently, like the Redskins, you still don't have a QB and the rest of your team sucks too.
timstep Posted January 15, 2015 Author Posted January 15, 2015 I always love this talk about running out and getting a "franchise" QB - as if you can just pick one up anywhere. Below is a chart of the 2014 QBs (with the year they were drafted) that finished in the top 12 in QBR, Yards, and Touchdowns QB_Franchise.JPG There are a total of 15 QBS that were in the top 12 in one or more of those three categories. Of those 15, only 4 were drafted after 2008, and only three in the last five years: Andrew Luck (in top 12 in all three categories), Russell Wilson (12th in QBR), and Ryan Tannehil (11th in YDS). Of the QBS that placed in the top 10 in all three categories, NONE were drafted after 2005. Everyone wants a franchise QB; however, they really do not come along all that often. And there are a lot of people blaming the front office for not getting a top QB. So, over the last 5 years, which top QB would you have liked for them to get? This list contains 15 starting QBS out of 32. These are ALL of the above average QBs in the NFL - and only 3 of them were available. They were not going to get Luck. So, that leaves Wilson, who 1) nobody really saw his potential and 2) has not had to carry a team yet - so, the jury is still out; or Tannehill. Of the other QBs that have been drafted over the last five years - they all have question marks and there are no sure bets. So, until the Bills find one, they better concentrate on a top defense and a top running game... I'm not saying it's easy like going to the grocery store, but the odds are if you have a franchise QB and an average defense, you're going farther than having not having a franchise QB and a great defense. And history bares that out.
The Big Cat Posted January 15, 2015 Posted January 15, 2015 Russel Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Eli Manning are below average? I thought the argument was you needed the ever elusive "elite."
Jauronimo Posted January 15, 2015 Posted January 15, 2015 Holy ****, the QB position is important?!?!?!? No one has ever debated that having a hall of fame caliber QB gives you the best chance to compete for a title year in year out. For adults, the argument isn't whether you get a franchise QB OR build a championship caliber defense, but rather how do you work to maximize your limited resources. There aren't that many people in the world who fit the description of franchise QB. Those that fit the description largely aren't available except for in the last few years of their careers. Drafting the next heir apparent isn't exactly easy since the commodity is scarce (i.e., there isn't one to be had in every draft) and theres no guarantee that the next Luck will fall to your draft spot. So what do you do? Exhaust all available resources on landing a QB even though the chances of doing so are piss poor or try to build a complete team and take an opportunistic approach to landing a QB?
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