dave mcbride Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 (edited) I'm a big fan of both the hire and Rex. He's a great defensive coach who has had a ton of success over the years, and the Jets defensive performance immediately went from average in 2008 to great in Rex's first season. That said, look at the point rankings and the turnover differential on a year by year basis under his reign in NY: 2009 - 1st in yards allowed, 1st in points allowed, and 16th in turnover ratio 2010 - 3rd in yards allowed, 6th in points allowed, 5th in turnover ratio 2011 - 5th in yards allowed, 20th in points allowed, 19th in turnover ratio 2012 - 8th in yards allowed, 20th in points allowed, 29th in turnover ratio 2013 - 11th in yards allowed, 19th in points allowed, 30th in turnover ratio 2014 - 6th in yards allowed, 24th in points allowed, 29th in turnover ratio It's worth noting that under Pettine's Jets-style D in 2013, the Bills were 8th in yards allowed, 20th in points allowed, and 12th in turnover ratio. I know that these points numbers mask a lot of things (i.e., dreadful offenses that can't move the ball and turn it over a lot), but there is a pattern. Under Schwartz, however, the Bills were 4th in yards allowed, 4th in points allowed, and 6th in turnover ratio. Now look at Belichick's #s from 2001 onward: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/. In every freaking season, the Pats' points allowed ranking is better than their yardage allowed ranking. In 11 out of 14 seasons, they were in the top 10 for points allowed. Also, their turnover ratio is always excellent - in the top half of the league every year since 2001 except once and in the top ten 12 out of 14 seasons. It's something to think about. While I understand why he left, I'm not thrilled that we weren't able to hang on to Schwartz (although I have no beef with Thurman). Edited January 13, 2015 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bladiebla Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Next stop getting Peyton Manning and we'll be duplicating the Favre drama quite nicely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 (edited) Three observations [edit]: 1) I wonder if the Jets defenses gave up more big plays-- high risk and all that. That might explain the low yards, but higher points. 2) It's tough to analyze the Pats' defense, since the Pats' offense helps them out so much. TO differential and ability to play with a lead probably have helped those Pats defenses tremendously. 3) Jim Schwartz's defenses in Detroit: 32, 19, 23, 27, 15 in points allowed from 2009-2013. Edited January 13, 2015 by JR in Pittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 (edited) Two observations: 1) I wonder if the Jets defenses gave up more big plays-- high risk and all that. That might explain the low yards, but higher points. 2) It's tough to analyze the Pats' defense, since the Pats' offense helps them out so much. TO differential and ability to play with a lead probably have helped those Pats defenses tremendously. Good points, but I do think that the Pats style is to keep plays in front of them. Schwartz, who briefly worked under Belichick earlier in his career, said he'd do the same when the season began. Obviously, Rex's approach can work - the Ravens' D was great. But you really do need elite cornerbacks. Without them, you are screwed -- you won't give up a ton of yardage, but you'll give up big TD plays. The Bills do have good cornerbacks, so that's good. If I recall correctly, Detroit's secondary was horrible under Schwartz. I don't know what happened this year to make them so much better. Gunther Cunningham was a fossil DC, which may have contributed to the problem. Edited January 13, 2015 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalScotts Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 we have good players on Defense...its not the scheme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Good points, but I do think that the Pats style is to keep plays in front of them. Schwartz, who briefly worked under Belichick earlier in his career, said he'd do the same when the season began. Obviously, Rex's approach can work - the Ravens' D was great. But you really do need elite cornerbacks. Without them, you are screwed -- you won't give up a ton of yardage, but you'll give up big TD plays. The Bills do have good cornerbacks, so that's good. Even though Schwartz and Rex have different "philosophies," you wonder if they had joined forces, we would have seen the best of both worlds. More aggressive than last year, but maybe more restrained than Rex's usual defenses. To your point, I bet we draft a corner relatively early this year (2nd or 3rd round). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Three observations [edit]: 1) I wonder if the Jets defenses gave up more big plays-- high risk and all that. That might explain the low yards, but higher points. 2) It's tough to analyze the Pats' defense, since the Pats' offense helps them out so much. TO differential and ability to play with a lead probably have helped those Pats defenses tremendously. 3) Jim Schwartz's defenses in Detroit: 32, 19, 23, 27, 15 in points allowed from 2009-2013. I think on number 1 - the high turnover differentials are the reason why yards given up seem low compared to points allowed. Sanchez and Geno kept turning it over in their own territory.... so you might only give up 25 yards on a drive but that is a touchdown. On 3 - I think that is because he was the opposite of Rex. Rex acts, as I have said elsewhere, as the Defensive Coordinator in Chief when he is Head Coach. Schwartz was guilty if anything of taking his hands off the defense too much and being too much of a just managing Head Coach. And in that first year he had very little defensive talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 You'll always give up more points when your offense doesn't score or move the ball. In other words maybe including time of possession or number of possessions with each of these years would be a better indication and could also make the yardage allowed look unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K8prisoner Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 It would be interesting to put those defense stats next to the progression of offense stats including turnovers to understand why defense stats moved as well And someone already beat me to that one .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 While I know that the rankings are going to get analyzed to death (and I feel that Rex Ryan's reputation of strong defense stands on its own) Lets keep in mind here that the bills have assembled some serious talent on this team.......the PLAYERS on this defense are gonna make just about anyone look good. And that is taking nothing away from Schwartz......who did a fine job. Its just that every DC we have had in here the last 2 years has had sooo much talent to work with. Its probably part of the reason why Rex Ryan decided to come here Even though Schwartz and Rex have different "philosophies," you wonder if they had joined forces, we would have seen the best of both worlds. More aggressive than last year, but maybe more restrained than Rex's usual defenses. To your point, I bet we draft a corner relatively early this year (2nd or 3rd round). There is no way to know for sure....but as time goes on I think they would have butted heads more often then agreed. Rex Ryan blitzes..... Schwartz does not........ They both have their advantages and disadvantages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 They are both Buddy Ryan tree guys that is what is interesting about the way their thinking has evolved differently... it is from the same base. Schwartz learnt defense under Williams who worked for Buddy Ryan with the Oilers and Fisher who worked for Buddy Ryan with the Eagles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealityCheck Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Arbitrary rankings and %s speak very little to what the strengths and weaknesses of those defenses were. Sad to say, but unless you go back and watch the games, what are you really going to figure out by staring at some numbers? Rex has his limitations. As long as Whaley continues to build the roster, the defense should be excellent. Rex's D was at it's best when they had Jenkins playing the nose. Dareus is a player 2 years stronger and wiser in the league since Pettine. He will likely emerge this year as the undisputed best DT in the game today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Dirty Sanchez, Geno and Ron Mexico are absolute turnover machines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I'm a big fan of both the hire and Rex. He's a great defensive coach who has had a ton of success over the years, and the Jets defensive performance immediately went from average in 2008 to great in Rex's first season. That said, look at the point rankings and the turnover differential on a year by year basis under his reign in NY: 2009 - 1st in yards allowed, 1st in points allowed, and 16th in turnover ratio 2010 - 3rd in yards allowed, 6th in points allowed, 5th in turnover ratio 2011 - 5th in yards allowed, 20th in points allowed, 19th in turnover ratio 2012 - 8th in yards allowed, 20th in points allowed, 29th in turnover ratio 2013 - 11th in yards allowed, 19th in points allowed, 30th in turnover ratio 2014 - 6th in yards allowed, 24th in points allowed, 29th in turnover ratio It's worth noting that under Pettine's Jets-style D in 2013, the Bills were 8th in yards allowed, 20th in points allowed, and 12th in turnover ratio. I know that these points numbers mask a lot of things (i.e., dreadful offenses that can't move the ball and turn it over a lot), but there is a pattern. Under Schwartz, however, the Bills were 4th in yards allowed, 4th in points allowed, and 6th in turnover ratio. Now look at Belichick's #s from 2001 onward: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/. In every freaking season, the Pats' points allowed ranking is better than their yardage allowed ranking. In 11 out of 14 seasons, they were in the top 10 for points allowed. Also, their turnover ratio is always excellent - in the top half of the league every year since 2001 except once and in the top ten 12 out of 14 seasons. It's something to think about. While I understand why he left, I'm not thrilled that we weren't able to hang on to Schwartz (although I have no beef with Thurman). This is an interesting point. But I wonder if it has more to do with talent than scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 3) Jim Schwartz's defenses in Detroit: 32, 19, 23, 27, 15 in points allowed from 2009-2013. The BEST news of this week was that Schwartz was not hired as the HC here. He was a bona fide turd as a HC. His defenses can be effective.....but they are NO BETTER than the sum of their parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Dirty Sanchez, Geno and Ron Mexico are absolute turnover machines. I was going to say that being anything but last in ratio speaks volumes to the defenses ability to create turnovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Doug Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Why would we care about turnover ratio, they had Geno Smith and I'm pretty sure Rex isn't bringing him along. It's not accurate to judge a team's defense based on turnover ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I'm a big fan of both the hire and Rex. He's a great defensive coach who has had a ton of success over the years, and the Jets defensive performance immediately went from average in 2008 to great in Rex's first season. That said, look at the point rankings and the turnover differential on a year by year basis under his reign in NY: 2009 - 1st in yards allowed, 1st in points allowed, and 16th in turnover ratio 2010 - 3rd in yards allowed, 6th in points allowed, 5th in turnover ratio 2011 - 5th in yards allowed, 20th in points allowed, 19th in turnover ratio 2012 - 8th in yards allowed, 20th in points allowed, 29th in turnover ratio 2013 - 11th in yards allowed, 19th in points allowed, 30th in turnover ratio 2014 - 6th in yards allowed, 24th in points allowed, 29th in turnover ratio It's worth noting that under Pettine's Jets-style D in 2013, the Bills were 8th in yards allowed, 20th in points allowed, and 12th in turnover ratio. I know that these points numbers mask a lot of things (i.e., dreadful offenses that can't move the ball and turn it over a lot), but there is a pattern. Under Schwartz, however, the Bills were 4th in yards allowed, 4th in points allowed, and 6th in turnover ratio. Now look at Belichick's #s from 2001 onward: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/. In every freaking season, the Pats' points allowed ranking is better than their yardage allowed ranking. In 11 out of 14 seasons, they were in the top 10 for points allowed. Also, their turnover ratio is always excellent - in the top half of the league every year since 2001 except once and in the top ten 12 out of 14 seasons. It's something to think about. While I understand why he left, I'm not thrilled that we weren't able to hang on to Schwartz (although I have no beef with Thurman). I pointed that out in another post and the shout box and some were miffed I brought it up. It is something to think about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasBB Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 (edited) This little tidbit is neither here nor there, but was looking over historical team stats and noticed that only 3 teams in NFL/AFL history have ever ranked #1 in all 4 of following categories (points, yards, points allowed, yards allowed). The 3 teams are: 1942 Chicago Bears 1964 Buffalo Bills 1972 Miami Dolphins Edited January 14, 2015 by ChasBB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 Some more specific info re turnovers caused rankings (not differential) by the Jets D: 2009 - 8th 2010 - 8th 2011 - 5th 2012 - 18th 2013 - 31st 2014 - 32nd Pretty steep decline over the years, and it was linear. The loss of good secondary players surely played a part, but 31st and 32nd is simply terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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