Spiller sounds like he is likely to come back

[fan_in_tx]

2012: In 3 WR sets - 101 carries for 6.9 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 60 carries for 5.5 YPC (62% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

2013: In 3 WR sets - 63 carries for 5.3 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 128 carries for 5.5 YPC (32% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

2014: In 3 WR sets - 36 carries for 6.4 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 36 carries for 1.4 YPC (50% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

 

Interestingly, running up the middle this year was the weakest part of the Bills running game (particularly in 2 TE sets), which is not surprising, given the play of the guards. Spiller averaged less than 2 YPC running up the middle and about 5 YPC outside the guards, yet, 30% of his runs were up the middle in 2 TE sets.

 

Another interesting point, Spiller's YPC up the middle drastically improves in spread formations and was the case in 2012. 2013, and 2014. In fact, Spiller ran up the middle in almost 40% (82 carries) of the plays in 2012. However, most of that was out of 3 WR sets and he averaged 6.5 YPC - the highest average in the NFL up the middle in 2012.

 

Good analysis... Are these metrics the sort of thing that the newly created analytics dept at One Bills Drive should have been supplying to St Dougie in 2014?

[FireChan]

2012: In 3 WR sets - 101 carries for 6.9 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 60 carries for 5.5 YPC (62% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

2013: In 3 WR sets - 63 carries for 5.3 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 128 carries for 5.5 YPC (32% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

2014: In 3 WR sets - 36 carries for 6.4 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 36 carries for 1.4 YPC (50% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

 

Interestingly, running up the middle this year was the weakest part of the Bills running game (particularly in 2 TE sets), which is not surprising, given the play of the guards. Spiller averaged less than 2 YPC running up the middle and about 5 YPC outside the guards, yet, 30% of his runs were up the middle in 2 TE sets.

 

Another interesting point, Spiller's YPC up the middle drastically improves in spread formations and was the case in 2012. 2013, and 2014. In fact, Spiller ran up the middle in almost 40% (82 carries) of the plays in 2012. However, most of that was out of 3 WR sets and he averaged 6.5 YPC - the highest average in the NFL up the middle in 2012.

Why don't these numbers match his averages?

[MDH]

Not. When. You. Have. Lee. Smith.

 

When you have Lee Smith, you must sacrifice the spread and all common sense. He's that essential to have on the field.

 

I can't believe I'm about to do it, but I'm going to defend Marrone and Hackett.

 

The reason they did this was because of their guards. They had guards who couldn't move AT ALL. Did you see them try to get outside to block for a screen? It was embarrassing. They'd fall flat on their faces more often than not. Their lack of agility is why we never saw staples of other offenses like the pulling guards or the spread. When you run the spread you need an OL who can move to execute zone blocking schemes. Our Guards had cement in their shoes. Watching the playoffs is an eye opener. Basic plays for other teams are things we never saw this year because of the OL.

 

All that being said Marrone and Hackett certainly didn't get the most juice out of the lemon that was the offense but it wasn't all their fault.

[billsfan1959]

Why don't these numbers match his averages?

Not sure what numbers you are referring to; however, they are what they are - taken straight out of the splits breakdown in ESPN. Take it up with ESPN's statistical Department.

[boyst]

Making stats to make the player doesn't work. CJ Spiller may not have been used right in the last two years but he is still only worth so much to this team and league. Unless we are going to start motioning him out to WR and getting creative with him we can't expect much from him; he's not that type of back.

[Dibs]

I can't believe I'm about to do it, but I'm going to defend Marrone and Hackett.

 

The reason they did this was because of their guards. They had guards who couldn't move AT ALL. Did you see them try to get outside to block for a screen? It was embarrassing. They'd fall flat on their faces more often than not. Their lack of agility is why we never saw staples of other offenses like the pulling guards or the spread. When you run the spread you need an OL who can move to execute zone blocking schemes. Our Guards had cement in their shoes. Watching the playoffs is an eye opener. Basic plays for other teams are things we never saw this year because of the OL.

 

All that being said Marrone and Hackett certainly didn't get the most juice out of the lemon that was the offense but it wasn't all their fault.

But they performed at a horrible level while not in a spread formation. If they are going to suck either way, why not open things up a bit so the playmakers at least have more of a chance to make plays? Edited January 13, 2015 by Dibs

[FireChan]

Not sure what numbers you are referring to; however, they are what they are - taken straight out of the splits breakdown in ESPN. Take it up with ESPN's statistical Department.

These ones.

 

2012: In 3 WR sets - 101 carries for 6.9 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 60 carries for 5.5 YPC (62% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

2013: In 3 WR sets - 63 carries for 5.3 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 128 carries for 5.5 YPC (32% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

2014: In 3 WR sets - 36 carries for 6.4 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 36 carries for 1.4 YPC (50% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

 

In 2013, Spiller's YPC was 4.6. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you cannot have a 5.3 YPC and a 5.5 YPC average to 4.6.

 

Looks like they are wrong. Where are the rest of his carries? He had 202. Do we pretend those extra ones don't matter?

Edited January 13, 2015 by FireChan

[Dibs]

These ones.

 

2012: In 3 WR sets - 101 carries for 6.9 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 60 carries for 5.5 YPC (62% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

2013: In 3 WR sets - 63 carries for 5.3 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 128 carries for 5.5 YPC (32% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

2014: In 3 WR sets - 36 carries for 6.4 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 36 carries for 1.4 YPC (50% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

 

In 2013, Spiller's YPC was 4.6. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you cannot have a 5.3 YPC and a 5.5 YPC average to 4.6.

 

Looks like they are wrong. Where are the rest of his carries? He had 207. Do we pretend those extra ones don't matter?

 

It looks like the error is that it isn't for "less than 3 WR sets"......it should have been stated as "2 WR sets". Single(and zero) WR sets were not mentioned.

 

Perhaps it is better to look at number of TEs.

 

2013:

0 TEs: 8-38, 4.8

1 TE: 105-584, 5.6

2 TE: 86-304, 3.5

3+ TEs: 3-7, 2.7

[MDH]

But they performed at a horrible level while not in a spread formation. If they are going to suck either way, why not open things up a bit so the playmakers at least have more of a chance to make plays?

 

I'm guessing that because of the dominant D they just didn't want to make the mistake that would cost them the game. Opening things up would also afford the opposing D's defenders more opportunities to make plays as well. Pretty sure after watching them turn both our QBs into kitty cats that not making a mistake on offense became their mantra.

[billsfan1959]

These ones.

 

2012: In 3 WR sets - 101 carries for 6.9 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 60 carries for 5.5 YPC (62% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

2013: In 3 WR sets - 63 carries for 5.3 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 128 carries for 5.5 YPC (32% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

2014: In 3 WR sets - 36 carries for 6.4 YPC; Less than 3 WR sets - 36 carries for 1.4 YPC (50% of his carries in 3 WR sets)

 

In 2013, Spiller's YPC was 4.6. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you cannot have a 5.3 YPC and a 5.5 YPC average to 4.6.

 

Looks like they are wrong. Where are the rest of his carries? He had 202. Do we pretend those extra ones don't matter?

Ahh...good catch It should be 5.3 YPC in 3 WR sets and 4.2 YPC in less than 3 WR and overall average was 4.6. Still averaged over 1 YPC more in 3 WR sets. The remainder of his carries were in 4 WR sets and same average of 5.3. Should have been included. I checked, and all the other numbers are correct.

 

Which, by the way, I am not trying to prove anything at all or convince anyone of anything.. The stats were simply in reply to a post asking what the stat breakdown was.

Edited January 13, 2015 by billsfan1959

[Dibs]

 

I'm guessing that because of the dominant D they just didn't want to make the mistake that would cost them the game. Opening things up would also afford the opposing D's defenders more opportunities to make plays as well. Pretty sure after watching them turn both our QBs into kitty cats that not making a mistake on offense became their mantra.

 

You are likely right......but I just can't help but wonder what came first(chicken or egg argument). Did we play so conservatively(like kitties who didn't want to make mistakes) because we were playing so poorly.......or did we play so poorly because we had the mantra of not making a mistake?

[Kelly the Dog]

 

I'm guessing that because of the dominant D they just didn't want to make the mistake that would cost them the game. Opening things up would also afford the opposing D's defenders more opportunities to make plays as well. Pretty sure after watching them turn both our QBs into kitty cats that not making a mistake on offense became their mantra.

IMO a major part of the problem was their base offense was tight sets, and other teams, knowing we didn't have a great QB, would crowd the line, put most everyone in the box, blitz, and confuse our inexperienced line. That was a recipe for disaster. These are simple numbers but instead of running 2/3 of your plays from tight formations and inviting this, and 1/3 in wide or spread formations, where the defense has 1-2 less LBs at the line and 1-2 more DBs outside, with our WRs being good blockers, reversing that would open up the running game as well as the passing game as well as put our playmakers on the field, and keep our crappy TEs off it. So run 1/3 tight and 2/3 wide.

Edited January 13, 2015 by Kelly the Dog

[1B4IDie]

 

 

Spiller doesn't have a fumbling issue at all. (Fumbled on 2% of all touches in his career (Fred is at 1.5%))

Not every decent running back is a decent blocker.

Most of his yards during his best seasons were between the tackles.

Season.

And running a draw between the tackles in a spread formation isn't the same as lining up and following blocks and finding holes between the tackles.

Spiller is very replaceable.

 

 

When whole numbers hurt, use percentages

Look at the league leaders in fumbles and fumbles lost in his one good season.

Edited January 13, 2015 by Why So Serious?

[Mr. WEO]

Ahh...good catch It should be 5.3 YPC in 3 WR sets and 4.2 YPC in less than 3 WR and overall average was 4.6. Still averaged over 1 YPC more in 3 WR sets. The remainder of his carries were in 4 WR sets and same average of 5.3. Should have been included. I checked, and all the other numbers are correct.

 

Which, by the way, I am not trying to prove anything at all or convince anyone of anything.. The stats were simply in reply to a post asking what the stat breakdown was.

 

The problem is that with relatively few carries, isolated runs of 77, 61 and 46 yards skew his data in each category. For example, in 2013, he had 337 yrds in 3 WR sets--but 46 of those yards came on a single play out of 63. The average for the other 62 runs was 4.4 YPC. Throw out his outlier (77 yarder) in the the 2 WR sets and his average becomes 4 YPC--not significantly different from 4.4.

 

I don't think it really matters how many WRs line up play after play for Spiller.

[billsfan1959]

 

The problem is that with relatively few carries, isolated runs of 77, 61 and 46 yards skew his data in each category. For example, in 2013, he had 337 yrds in 3 WR sets--but 46 of those yards came on a single play out of 63. The average for the other 62 runs was 4.4 YPC. Throw out his outlier (77 yarder) in the the 2 WR sets and his average becomes 4 YPC--not significantly different from 4.4.

 

I don't think it really matters how many WRs line up play after play for Spiller.

Won't disagree. However, the fact is, outliers are calculated in every running back's stats. I didn't hear anybody this year saying, hey, if you throw out DeMarco Murray's fifteen 20+ yard runs, he only averaged 3.8 YPC rather than 4.7 YPC. It is what it is. And it is not just running backs. How about QBs, should we deduct those few 50+ yard passes, WR YAC, drops by WRs, etc., from their passing stats to more accurately assess them? Probably, that is why there are more advanced analyses by PFF, Football Outsiders, Pro Football Reference, etc. That is not what I was doing. I was simply responding to a poster who wanted to know what Spiller's overall stats were when running in 3 WR sets versus 2 WR or less sets.

[1B4IDie]

Won't disagree. However, the fact is, outliers are calculated in every running back's stats. I didn't hear anybody this year saying, hey, if you throw out DeMarco Murray's fifteen 20+ yard runs, he only averaged 3.8 YPC rather than 4.7 YPC. It is what it is. And it is not just running backs. How about QBs, should we deduct those few 50+ yard passes, WR YAC, drops by WRs, etc., from their passing stats to more accurately assess them? Probably, that is why there are more advanced analyses by PFF, Football Outsiders, Pro Football Reference, etc. That is not what I was doing. I was simply responding to a poster who wanted to know what Spiller's overall stats were when running in 3 WR sets versus 2 WR or less sets.

I think you can compare Standard Deviation of YPC.

The real world effect is other RBs with get you into 2nd and 5 more often.

Where Spiller gets you in 2nd and 7 more often and every once in awhile hits a triple

[FireChan]

Won't disagree. However, the fact is, outliers are calculated in every running back's stats. I didn't hear anybody this year saying, hey, if you throw out DeMarco Murray's fifteen 20+ yard runs, he only averaged 3.8 YPC rather than 4.7 YPC. It is what it is. And it is not just running backs. How about QBs, should we deduct those few 50+ yard passes, WR YAC, drops by WRs, etc., from their passing stats to more accurately assess them? Probably, that is why there are more advanced analyses by PFF, Football Outsiders, Pro Football Reference, etc. That is not what I was doing. I was simply responding to a poster who wanted to know what Spiller's overall stats were when running in 3 WR sets versus 2 WR or less sets.

That's true. But the first thing I look at when I watch Murray is not his YPC. I watch his BCV, his cut backs etc. With Spiller, it's pretty much only the YPC.

[Hplarrm]

Spiller is one of the worst RBs the Bills have ever drafted. He doesn't know how to block, follow a block or hold on to the ball. He doesn't know how to fall forward after contact and that is after playing with one of the best yards after contact RBs in NFL history. Just, No. We can find some UDFA RB that can dance in the hole and fumble to replace Spiller.

How do you explain Spiller's history of generating quite impressive yards per carry prior to his poor use this past season?

 

The obvious attempt to explain this would be to claim that he had high ypc but few carries, but the fact he has carried the ball only a few times, but prior to the broken collarbone which limited him last year, Spiller carried the ball over 200 times the previous 2 seasons and even racked up over 1200 yds in his best season.

 

In the real world Spiller has demonstrated open field running ability such as in his kickoff return work and racked up some good receiving stats in college.

 

Is Spiller great

 

No.

 

However, is Spiller as you said one of the worst RBs ever drafted by the Bills.

 

No!

 

The reality of the situation as clearly indicated by his stats says your assessment is simply wrong.

 

Right now Spiller enters an RB market which is gonna be soft for him and the Bills likely will be able to resign him cheaply.

 

The Bills should NOT pay a ton for CJ, but I doubt they will have to.

 

Spiller seems like he can be a good resigning by the Bills at a reasonable price.

[Maury Ballstein]

two seasons ago he was the 2nd best runner in football. He won us games. He averaged 6 freakin yards a carry. Teams were setting up their entire gameplan around the guy.

1700 all purpose yards and 8td's behind a mediocre O line. The last time he touched the ball he went for 50+.

Dont judge him by what Hackett did with him. And remember PFF graded our run blocking as the worst in the NFL last year. Dead last. (nice job fixing that doug and dumber)

My thoughts exactly.

[Mr. WEO]

Won't disagree. However, the fact is, outliers are calculated in every running back's stats. I didn't hear anybody this year saying, hey, if you throw out DeMarco Murray's fifteen 20+ yard runs, he only averaged 3.8 YPC rather than 4.7 YPC. It is what it is. And it is not just running backs. How about QBs, should we deduct those few 50+ yard passes, WR YAC, drops by WRs, etc., from their passing stats to more accurately assess them? Probably, that is why there are more advanced analyses by PFF, Football Outsiders, Pro Football Reference, etc. That is not what I was doing. I was simply responding to a poster who wanted to know what Spiller's overall stats were when running in 3 WR sets versus 2 WR or less sets.

 

A outlier is just that--the highest or lowest value. It is nothing like eliminating 15 monster runs, just a single one that is skewing the entire data set--so you won't hear anyone suggesting that. It wouldn't make any sense.

 

The point is, does the data show that Spiller performs significantly better with 3 WR sets than 2. The answer is no.