Kelly the Dog Posted January 13, 2015 Author Posted January 13, 2015 This is like back a few years ago when posters here were going on and on about Roscoe being the "best punt returner in NFL history" because he avg'g 16 yards one year---yet he only returned 27 punts all season! WRONG. People were calling Roscoe one of the best punt returners in NFL history because at the time, he was the top 1-2 punt returner in NFL history. For his career not for that season. After two bad seasons he went down 5-6 slots. All time. He's still eighth in modern day football... of all-time, career, not one year. Modern football not counting guys that played in the 40s and 50s, when there were 3 others. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/punt_ret_yds_per_ret_career.htm This is like back a few years ago when posters here were going on and on about Roscoe being the "best punt returner in NFL history" because he avg'g 16 yards one year---yet he only returned 27 punts all season! Final question. Do you think CJ Spiller will average 5 YPC once he's retired? 1 or 1.5 out of 5 is not sustainable. It's a misrepresentation IMO. A fluke that is skewing the data. With Barry and everyone else on your list, you could wipe out their best season, and their numbers are still great. With Spiller, he becomes pedestrian. It's just that simple. Did you fail math? His years are 3.8, 4.6, 6.0, 5.2, 3.8 That;s two of five years over 5 and one close to five. He's been hurt about five times in the last three years, one of the reasons he is not reliable and shouldn't be paid a huge amount.
Dibs Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 Here you go.. He only has 2 runs over 25 all year. So far this year, 16% of his carries went for negative yardage. 19% were for 1 yard. 17% went for 2 yards 19% went for 3-4 yards. 8.6% went for 10 or more yards. In total, 52% of his carries were for 2 or fewer yards. Don't like those numbers? How about last season? 25% of his runs were for 0 or less yards. 10% were for 1 yard. 15% were for 2 yards. So....a year ago 50% of his runs were for 2 yards or less. Sound familiar? Can you provide a link as to where you got this information? Not questioning its validity......just asking as none of my reference sites list it & I would like to have it in my saved links. Also.....for a comparison, can you list the same stats for FJ?
Mr. WEO Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 (edited) WRONG. People were calling Roscoe one of the best punt returners in NFL history because at the time, he was the top 1-2 punt returner in NFL history. For his career not for that season. After two bad seasons he went down 5-6 slots. All time. He's still eighth in modern day football... of all-time, career, not one year. Modern football not counting guys that played in the 40s and 50s, when there were 3 others. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/punt_ret_yds_per_ret_career.htm This is like back a few years ago when posters here were going on and on about Roscoe being the "best punt returner in NFL history" because he avg'g 16 yards one year---yet he only returned 27 punts all season! The point you're missing is that when you limit your reps (less than 2 returns a game over those 2 "historic seasons" for Roscoe), it's harder to dilute you stats. Can you provide a link as to where you got this information? Not questioning its validity......just asking as none of my reference sites list it & I would like to have it in my saved links. Also.....for a comparison, can you list the same stats for FJ? Profootball reference--I had to go through every carry the past 2 years--they can be ordered by yards gained. Quick look shows FJ had about 8% neg yard runs--half as many as CJ. He had 6.5% over 10 yards--2% points less than "the Home Run King". FJ had a higher 1st % on his runs and CJ is a fumbler. Edited January 13, 2015 by Mr. WEO
FireChan Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 Did you fail math? His years are 3.8, 4.6, 6.0, 5.2, 3.8 That;s two of five years over 5 and one close to five. He's been hurt about five times in the last three years, one of the reasons he is not reliable and shouldn't be paid a huge amount. Minus Barry's best season, his career YPC is 4.8 Minus Spiller's best season, his career YPC is 4.5 That's the difference, IMO. One good year brings his average up an entire half yard. Can you answer my question about if he finishes his career with a 5.0 YPC?
Kelly the Dog Posted January 13, 2015 Author Posted January 13, 2015 (edited) The point you're missing is that when you limit your reps (less than 2 returns a game over those 2 "historic seasons" for Roscoe), it's harder to dilute you stats. Profootball reference--I had to go through every carry the past 2 years--they can be ordered by yards gained. All time leader. Top 8. All time. The other leaders with him? Devin Hester. Rick Upchurch. Billy White Shoes. Desmond Howard. Julian Edelman. Those are the best names in the game. There are no outliers. Same with the running backs. The very best backs are in that list. There are no flukes. It's just a comparison but an imprtant one. I don't think Spiller's nearly as good as those guys. And never said anything remotely close to that. That would be as insane as you guys. Minus Barry's best season, his career YPC is 4.8 Minus Spiller's best season, his career YPC is 4.5 That's the difference, IMO. One good year brings his average up an entire half yard. Can you answer my question about if he finishes his career with a 5.0 YPC? Maybe. He's only been in a decent offense one year. He hasn't been healthy in two years. That's mostly his fault. He's never played with even a good line, let alone a very good one. He's never had a good QB to take pressure off him. I think if he stays healthy and gets in a good offense he will have a career average of 5.0, yes. Unless he plays a couple years when he no longer has his quickness and speed and it falls a little below. Edited January 13, 2015 by Kelly the Dog
Dibs Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 (edited) .... Profootball reference--I had to go through every carry the past 2 years--they can be ordered by yards gained. Quick look shows FJ had about 8% neg yard runs--half as many as CJ. Thanks, I thought I was missing some good stat site. Good job on the number crunching. Edited January 13, 2015 by Dibs
Mr. WEO Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 Thanks, I thought I was missing some good stat site. Good job on the number crunching. Thanks--I updated my post above to answer your question.
FireChan Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 Maybe. He's only been in a decent offense one year. He hasn't been healthy in two years. That's mostly his fault. He's never played with even a good line, let alone a very good one. He's never had a good QB to take pressure off him. I think if he stays healthy and gets in a good offense he will have a career average of 5.0, yes. Unless he plays a couple years when he no longer has his quickness and speed and it falls a little below. Maybe. He's only been in a decent offense one year. Wasn't Chan his coach for 3? Also, it's his fault that's he's a liability in pass-pro, hampering his ability to be on the field for a third of the time. But fair, I can accept that you think that. Personally, I think he's got no chance barring him never seeing meaningful snaps again.
Mr. WEO Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 All time leader. Top 8. All time. The other leaders with him? Devin Hester. Rick Upchurch. Billy White Shoes. Desmond Howard. Julian Edelman. Those are the best names in the game. There are no outliers. Same with the running backs. The very best backs are in that list. There are no flukes. It's just a comparison but an imprtant one. I don't think Spiller's nearly as good as those guys. And never said anything remotely close to that. That would be as insane as you guys. Maybe. He's only been in a decent offense one year. He hasn't been healthy in two years. That's mostly his fault. He's never played with even a good line, let alone a very good one. He's never had a good QB to take pressure off him. I think if he stays healthy and gets in a good offense he will have a career average of 5.0, yes. Unless he plays a couple years when he no longer has his quickness and speed and it falls a little below. Actually he is tied for 11th all time. And Hester had only 2 seasons ever with fewer than 28 punt returns. Roscoe's two big season, he hardly retuned any punts.
Dibs Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 (edited) ....CJ is a fumbler. I don't think that this point is reasonable(unless we also think that FJ is a fumbler) as CJ has fumbled a similar amount to FJ over the past 3 seasons. CJ: Fumbled 2.1%, Lost 1% FJ: Fumbled 2.8%, Lost 0.9% Edited January 13, 2015 by Dibs
Peace Frog Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 Maybe CJ would be better used as a slot receiver.
Kelly the Dog Posted January 13, 2015 Author Posted January 13, 2015 Maybe. He's only been in a decent offense one year. Wasn't Chan his coach for 3? Also, it's his fault that's he's a liability in pass-pro, hampering his ability to be on the field for a third of the time. Chan had mostly crappy players and made a decent offense out of mostly lousy players. 2010 they started with Trent and then Fitz took over and they were barely good. Fitz had some pretty good games. But we still had one WR, no TE whatsoever, and an erratic QB. Marshawn got traded. Roscoe was hurt. Evans did nothing and we couldn't get the ball to him. That was hardly a good offense. The next year Fitz was more ready with an off season, Chan had the off season to prepare. We didn't have good players but it was a pretty good offense. David Nelson was reliable. That was Chandler's first year. Fitz was decent and got the extension. That was Spiller's good year. Look at those names though. You're a Bills fan. We haven't had skill players. The next year was a disaster with injuries. Nelson was gone. Stevie hurt the whole year. Fitz was worse. We were playing Brad Smith, Ruvell Martin and TJ Graham at WR. That was an awful team with the guys lost. Actually he is tied for 11th all time. And Hester had only 2 seasons ever with fewer than 28 punt returns. Roscoe's two big season, he hardly retuned any punts. I said modern era. Guys that played in the 40s and 50s don't count in these kinds of stats. That's why they always say modern era.
TheFunPolice Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 Spiller loves it here I think he wants to stay
Mr. WEO Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 Chan had mostly crappy players and made a decent offense out of mostly lousy players. 2010 they started with Trent and then Fitz took over and they were barely good. Fitz had some pretty good games. But we still had one WR, no TE whatsoever, and an erratic QB. Marshawn got traded. Roscoe was hurt. Evans did nothing and we couldn't get the ball to him. That was hardly a good offense. The next year Fitz was more ready with an off season, Chan had the off season to prepare. We didn't have good players but it was a pretty good offense. David Nelson was reliable. That was Chandler's first year. Fitz was decent and got the extension. That was Spiller's good year. Look at those names though. You're a Bills fan. We haven't had skill players. The next year was a disaster with injuries. Nelson was gone. Stevie hurt the whole year. Fitz was worse. We were playing Brad Smith, Ruvell Martin and TJ Graham at WR. That was an awful team with the guys lost. I said modern era. Guys that played in the 40s and 50s don't count in these kinds of stats. That's why they always say modern era. OK, when you said "all time leaders. Top 8. All time", I thought you meant "all time".
Kelly the Dog Posted January 13, 2015 Author Posted January 13, 2015 OK, when you said "all time leaders. Top 8. All time", I thought you meant "all time". I did. I can't help if you ignored it. WRONG. People were calling Roscoe one of the best punt returners in NFL history because at the time, he was the top 1-2 punt returner in NFL history. For his career not for that season. After two bad seasons he went down 5-6 slots. All time. He's still eighth in modern day football... of all-time, career, not one year. Modern football not counting guys that played in the 40s and 50s, when there were 3 others. http://www.pro-footb..._ret_career.htm
FireChan Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 Chan had mostly crappy players and made a decent offense out of mostly lousy players. 2010 they started with Trent and then Fitz took over and they were barely good. Fitz had some pretty good games. But we still had one WR, no TE whatsoever, and an erratic QB. Marshawn got traded. Roscoe was hurt. Evans did nothing and we couldn't get the ball to him. That was hardly a good offense. The next year Fitz was more ready with an off season, Chan had the off season to prepare. We didn't have good players but it was a pretty good offense. David Nelson was reliable. That was Chandler's first year. Fitz was decent and got the extension. That was Spiller's good year. Look at those names though. You're a Bills fan. We haven't had skill players. The next year was a disaster with injuries. Nelson was gone. Stevie hurt the whole year. Fitz was worse. We were playing Brad Smith, Ruvell Martin and TJ Graham at WR. That was an awful team with the guys lost. I said modern era. Guys that played in the 40s and 50s don't count in these kinds of stats. That's why they always say modern era. And yet, it was his best year.
Mr. WEO Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 (edited) I did. I can't help if you ignored it. LOL--you can't really say "of the Modern Era of all time", because "of all time" means.....eh, never mind. Edited January 13, 2015 by Mr. WEO
RyanC883 Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 That's what we have Sammy for. Yet again, Spiller doesn't fit the mold need more than one home run hitter on offense.
TheFunPolice Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 Sadly Kap is about as smart as a sack of hammers
NoSaint Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 Why resign him to adapt a guy to your scheme when you're starting fresh and could get a guy who fits your scheme? My point was maybe gore was the adaptation - or cj would atleast have a role as they've drafted several small shifty guys that didn't pan out
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