Bills GM wants next coach to revive EJ Manuel

[Enemarty]

How do you revive a zombie ? Good Luck with that.

http://liquor.com/recipes/corpse-reviver-no-1/#17doYsIKqdYvrJwy.97

[billsfan1959]

This is such a tough question. I think you keep a guy for 2 years minimum. Then, by his third year, if he his not playing well enough to reasonably keep you in contention for the post-season, you start to look elsewhere. The problem is, if you have a great team around the young guy, you can hide his deficiencies or at least use the "he's playing well enough to win games" argument, which sort of works. With the salary cap, however, getting a lesser team is almost guaranteed and the wheels come off.

 

As evidence, I submit the Blane Gabbert's and Mark Sanchez's first two seasons. If Blaine was on NY in 09-10, he would've lasted a lot longer due to the team being so great. If Mark had the same two first seasons on the Jags, he would not have lasted 5 years there.

Agreed. In EJ's case, I think it is absolutely ridiculous to write him off after 14 games. I also think it is just as ridiculous to not do everything possible to make the best QB acquisition(s) this off season that they reasonably can make. EJ is going to be here next year whether people like it or not. Hopefully, he can be what this team needs. If not, there better be a viable option.

[1billsfan]

Agreed. In EJ's case, I think it is absolutely ridiculous to write him off after 14 games. I also think it is just as ridiculous to not do everything possible to make the best QB acquisition(s) this off season that they reasonably can make. EJ is going to be here next year whether people like it or not. Hopefully, he can be what this team needs. If not, there better be a viable option.

 

I think fans need to come to realize "viable option" means scrap heap QBs like Sanchez, Glennon, Hoyer or McCown. It's funny that as bad as many here think EJ Manuel is, it's very hard to find a free agent QB who would supplant him as the starter.

 

If I were the Bills I'd sign Kellen Moore (QB, Lions), draft a QB in the 3rd or 5th round and be done with it. I think Moore might be a true NFL starter who just hasn't got his chance in a real game. He's looked great in preseason games.

 

The Bills need to keep their options open for next season if Manuel plays poorly this next season, maybe a Rothlesburger, E. Manning or Brees (a team possibly looking to do a top down rebuild) go on the block for a trade.

Edited January 13, 2015 by 1billsfan

[BackInDaDay]

Roman has to enter this summer believing that he has to reach his own conclusion about who can play, and who can't.. he's smart enough to realize that there's no way to differentiate between the coaches failures and the players failures. that's how bad this offense was.

[Rob's House]

I posted this on the BBMB a few days ago. What annoys me are the people who say "what are we going to do about qb?" with the assumed certitude that we know EJ Manuel is a lost cause.

EJ is a gifted athlete with good character and a solid work ethic.

He had some success at FSU, but never nailed down the starter job. He was definitely a project drafted for upside based on his athleticism and his work ethic.

He was not supposed to see the field the first year, but injuries altered that plan. He had a typical rookie season with typical ups-and-downs.

EJ worked very hard in the off-season. Wide receiver talent was added and an attempt was made to upgrade the o-line.

What happened? EJ appears to have regressed. The o-line was for the most part abysmal. The offensive play-calling was inadequate, to the point where a journeyman qb with experience regressed as the year went on.

Given Marrone's departure and the subsequent avalanche of rumor, it is at least plausible that Marrone is a stubborn meathead who made decisions at least partly to frustrate Whaley. He certainly does not appear to have made a good faith effort to develop EJ Manuel.

What would a rational person with decent intellect and character take away from all this?

The most plausible conclusion is that EJ Manuel is still an unknown quantity.

His chances of becoming a great NFL qb are relatively low, because the number of qbs who succeed at this level is always a small number. One could argue that Rodgers and Brady are the only truly elite qbs playing now. (Manning is not the same player.) Still, it would be presumptuous to simply dismiss EJ at this point.

The factors that made him an attractive project are still viable and there are mitigating aspects that could explain how his second year turned out. One cannot simply dismiss them without acting in bad faith,which is what many on this board are doing.

The bottom line on all this is that EJ remains the most viable qb with actual potential on the Bills' roster. No doubt someone else will be brought in, but none of the free agents are anything more than journeymen with proven track records. While the chance is perhaps slim, we do not actually KNOW that Manuel's ceiling is mediocre game manager at best. I am looking forward to a coach like Jackson or Bevell putting him in a position to succeed. He may not, but he deserves a chance. Really too bad for those who are unable to make a complex judgement.

It's not that he's a lost cause. It's that only a drooling, brain dead, knuckle dragging (*^*&%^$^#goes into a season with a playoff caliber team and only an iffy prospect at QB unless he has no other options. Other options exist. They may not be great or easy to obtain, but there are options. If EJ wants the job he needs to earn it.

Agreed.

 

My point is, there are a lot of young QBs who simply don't throw a good deep ball, put way too much air under it or not enough, lack a touch, lack the arm strength, have to change their delivery to throw it like a baseball to get it far enough, etc. EJ doesn't have those issues, and it's a much bigger problem to fix for the other guys.

 

EJ's biggest accuracy problem is not the deep ball, it's missing open targets for no reason, and not hitting guys in stride so the YAC are limited. Those are his two big issues outside of the head-related stuff. Not the deep ball. If he gets confidence, he will hit them with the necessary regularity, or at least good enough.

He's pretty bad with screen passes too. Hopefully he's been practicing.

Edited January 14, 2015 by Rob's House

[Sisyphean Bills]

This is such a tough question. I think you keep a guy for 2 years minimum. Then, by his third year, if he his not playing well enough to reasonably keep you in contention for the post-season, you start to look elsewhere. The problem is, if you have a great team around the young guy, you can hide his deficiencies or at least use the "he's playing well enough to win games" argument, which sort of works. With the salary cap, however, getting a lesser team is almost guaranteed and the wheels come off.

 

As evidence, I submit the Blane Gabbert's and Mark Sanchez's first two seasons. If Blaine was on NY in 09-10, he would've lasted a lot longer due to the team being so great. If Mark had the same two first seasons on the Jags, he would not have lasted 5 years there.

 

Sanchez is a good example of falling in a rut with a guy. He tried hard and desperately wanted to be the guy, but it wasn't enough. And at times he can lull people into thinking he is pretty good. Right up until he lays an egg on the field. Like you said he was protected by a great defense and a running game. When they asked him to do more, his numbers actually ticked upwards but the teams record went sharply downwards. The half season he played in the Chip Kelly system this year was his best numbers-wise and he had some great games and also laid another egg.

 

Does he continue to improve? Who knows. He has generally been trending upwards. Do those numbers really mean anything? The W-L record is a pretty flat middling record, but is that Sanchez or the entire team?

 

The tough question, besides whether to cut bait or fish, is a guy like that's ceiling. Will Sanchez (or EJM) ever get to the point to win a Super Bowl? A QB has to be able to play 3-4 excellent games against the best competition to do that. That's a very tall order. While it takes more than a QB to win the Super Bowl, you really can't afford to have a guy lay an egg in the playoffs either. The QB has to be consistent and have enough support around him ... and a few good bounces helps.

[FireChan]

 

Sanchez is a good example of falling in a rut with a guy. He tried hard and desperately wanted to be the guy, but it wasn't enough. And at times he can lull people into thinking he is pretty good. Right up until he lays an egg on the field. Like you said he was protected by a great defense and a running game. When they asked him to do more, his numbers actually ticked upwards but the teams record went sharply downwards. The half season he played in the Chip Kelly system this year was his best numbers-wise and he had some great games and also laid another egg.

 

Does he continue to improve? Who knows. He has generally been trending upwards. Do those numbers really mean anything? The W-L record is a pretty flat middling record, but is that Sanchez or the entire team?

 

The tough question, besides whether to cut bait or fish, is a guy like that's ceiling. Will Sanchez (or EJM) ever get to the point to win a Super Bowl? A QB has to be able to play 3-4 excellent games against the best competition to do that. That's a very tall order. While it takes more than a QB to win the Super Bowl, you really can't afford to have a guy lay an egg in the playoffs either. The QB has to be consistent and have enough support around him ... and a few good bounces helps.

The thing about "consistency in the playoffs" is that the teams that win the Superbowl are not always consistent. Joe Flacco isn't consistent. Neither is Eli. They both have had great games against good opponents, and really bad games. Short of hitting on a top 5 generational guy, you want a guy who, at his best, can play great, and you accept that he's gonna have some games or years where he'll play worse and fall short.

 

Flacco is a good QB for this reason. He's had great games before, but whether it's luck, streaking or what have you, he put together a couple of his best to win a championship. So did Eli. And both of those guys have had really bad years as well.

 

Rodgers, Brady, P. Manning are all great because they are consistent. A down year for one of those guys is an above average year for a Flacco/Eli QB. But Flacco/Eli both have the potential on any given Sunday to outduel one of those guys if they play well. That's the kind of QB I want to target short term. That's why I want Cutler. His season stats are a little above average, but not spectacular. I get that. But is there a available QB with a better chance to throw for 400 yards and 4 TD's on a random game? If you had to pick one QB out of the guys available for trade/FA, who gives you the best odds of winning a shootout against a great QB?

 

That's the main reason why I, personally, don't have as much faith in EJ as I would like in delivering a Superbowl. He's had some good performances with good team performances, no question. But I haven't seen him elevate to that point where I go, "Woah, we could outscore anyone with EJ playing like this." I know it's a tall order, but I wish I had seen that.

 

In short, I want a guy who has had multiple "hot" games where he's flat out dominated. I don't care about his lows. Consistency be damned. Just give me someone with a shot to play at a Pro-Bowl level for a game. That could be enough, with some luck.

Edited January 14, 2015 by FireChan

[johnwalter]

The thing about "consistency in the playoffs" is that the teams that win the Superbowl are not always consistent. Joe Flacco isn't consistent. Neither is Eli. They both have had great games against good opponents, and really bad games. Short of hitting on a top 5 generational guy, you want a guy who, at his best, can play great, and you accept that he's gonna have some games or years where he'll play worse and fall short.

 

Flacco is a good QB for this reason. He's had great games before, but whether it's luck, streaking or what have you, he put together a couple of his best to win a championship. So did Eli. And both have those guys have had really bad years as well.

 

Rodgers, Brady, P. Manning are all great because they are consistent. A down year for one of those guys is an above average year for a Flacco/Eli QB. But Flacco/Eli both have the potential on any given Sunday to outduel one of those guys if they play well. That's the kind of QB I want to target short term. That's why I want Cutler. His season stats are a little above average, but not spectacular. I get that. But is there a available QB with a better chance to throw for 400 yards and 4 TD's on a random game? If you had to pick one QB out of the guys available for trade/FA, who gives you the best odds of winning a shootout against a great QB?

 

That's the main reason why I, personally, don't have as much faith in EJ as I would like in delivering a Superbowl. He's had some good performances with good team performances, no question. But I haven't seen him elevate to that point where I go, "Woah, we could outscore anyone with EJ playing like this." I know it's a tall order, but I wish I had seen that.

 

In short, I want a guy who has had multiple "hot" games where he's flat out dominated. I don't care about his lows. Consistency be damned. Just give me someone with a shot to play at a Pro-Bowl level for a game. That could be enough, with some luck.

 

this is what a good post looks like.

[FireChan]

 

this is what a good post looks like.

Thanks.

 

Also, SB, sorry for bringing up and focusing on specific QB's. It just kinda flowed that way.

[Kelly the Dog]

The thing about "consistency in the playoffs" is that the teams that win the Superbowl are not always consistent. Joe Flacco isn't consistent. Neither is Eli. They both have had great games against good opponents, and really bad games. Short of hitting on a top 5 generational guy, you want a guy who, at his best, can play great, and you accept that he's gonna have some games or years where he'll play worse and fall short.

 

Flacco is a good QB for this reason. He's had great games before, but whether it's luck, streaking or what have you, he put together a couple of his best to win a championship. So did Eli. And both of those guys have had really bad years as well.

 

Rodgers, Brady, P. Manning are all great because they are consistent. A down year for one of those guys is an above average year for a Flacco/Eli QB. But Flacco/Eli both have the potential on any given Sunday to outduel one of those guys if they play well. That's the kind of QB I want to target short term. That's why I want Cutler. His season stats are a little above average, but not spectacular. I get that. But is there a available QB with a better chance to throw for 400 yards and 4 TD's on a random game? If you had to pick one QB out of the guys available for trade/FA, who gives you the best odds of winning a shootout against a great QB?

 

That's the main reason why I, personally, don't have as much faith in EJ as I would like in delivering a Superbowl. He's had some good performances with good team performances, no question. But I haven't seen him elevate to that point where I go, "Woah, we could outscore anyone with EJ playing like this." I know it's a tall order, but I wish I had seen that.

 

In short, I want a guy who has had multiple "hot" games where he's flat out dominated. I don't care about his lows. Consistency be damned. Just give me someone with a shot to play at a Pro-Bowl level for a game. That could be enough, with some luck.

Good stuff. Can't argue with any of it.

[Deranged Rhino]

The thing about "consistency in the playoffs" is that the teams that win the Superbowl are not always consistent. Joe Flacco isn't consistent. Neither is Eli. They both have had great games against good opponents, and really bad games. Short of hitting on a top 5 generational guy, you want a guy who, at his best, can play great, and you accept that he's gonna have some games or years where he'll play worse and fall short.

 

Flacco is a good QB for this reason. He's had great games before, but whether it's luck, streaking or what have you, he put together a couple of his best to win a championship. So did Eli. And both of those guys have had really bad years as well.

 

Rodgers, Brady, P. Manning are all great because they are consistent. A down year for one of those guys is an above average year for a Flacco/Eli QB. But Flacco/Eli both have the potential on any given Sunday to outduel one of those guys if they play well. That's the kind of QB I want to target short term. That's why I want Cutler. His season stats are a little above average, but not spectacular. I get that. But is there a available QB with a better chance to throw for 400 yards and 4 TD's on a random game? If you had to pick one QB out of the guys available for trade/FA, who gives you the best odds of winning a shootout against a great QB?

 

That's the main reason why I, personally, don't have as much faith in EJ as I would like in delivering a Superbowl. He's had some good performances with good team performances, no question. But I haven't seen him elevate to that point where I go, "Woah, we could outscore anyone with EJ playing like this." I know it's a tall order, but I wish I had seen that.

 

In short, I want a guy who has had multiple "hot" games where he's flat out dominated. I don't care about his lows. Consistency be damned. Just give me someone with a shot to play at a Pro-Bowl level for a game. That could be enough, with some luck.

 

[Wayne Cubed]

The thing about "consistency in the playoffs" is that the teams that win the Superbowl are not always consistent. Joe Flacco isn't consistent. Neither is Eli. They both have had great games against good opponents, and really bad games. Short of hitting on a top 5 generational guy, you want a guy who, at his best, can play great, and you accept that he's gonna have some games or years where he'll play worse and fall short.

 

Flacco is a good QB for this reason. He's had great games before, but whether it's luck, streaking or what have you, he put together a couple of his best to win a championship. So did Eli. And both of those guys have had really bad years as well.

 

Rodgers, Brady, P. Manning are all great because they are consistent. A down year for one of those guys is an above average year for a Flacco/Eli QB. But Flacco/Eli both have the potential on any given Sunday to outduel one of those guys if they play well. That's the kind of QB I want to target short term. That's why I want Cutler. His season stats are a little above average, but not spectacular. I get that. But is there a available QB with a better chance to throw for 400 yards and 4 TD's on a random game? If you had to pick one QB out of the guys available for trade/FA, who gives you the best odds of winning a shootout against a great QB?

 

That's the main reason why I, personally, don't have as much faith in EJ as I would like in delivering a Superbowl. He's had some good performances with good team performances, no question. But I haven't seen him elevate to that point where I go, "Woah, we could outscore anyone with EJ playing like this." I know it's a tall order, but I wish I had seen that.

 

In short, I want a guy who has had multiple "hot" games where he's flat out dominated. I don't care about his lows. Consistency be damned. Just give me someone with a shot to play at a Pro-Bowl level for a game. That could be enough, with some luck.

 

Definitely agree with that. I think even if you look at this past season, Orton had 2 really dominant games. I think its possible Jay Cutler can get you more dominant games than Orton can. Last season, with a crap defense I'd say Cutler had 5 games were he played as the "good" Cutler. Maybe that amounts to 2-3 more wins for the Bills if the defense can play as well as it did last year. I think it's in the realm of possibility.

[eball]

I'll echo the thoughts of those above without re-quoting the same post...nicely said, FireChan. Cutler still scares the crap out of me, though.

Edited January 14, 2015 by eball

[ALF]

I would think they give EJ all next season to sink or swim. Have a look at Tuel in preseason , Orton might come back with Rex here.

 

Until they fix the OL like they did in Dallas , its unfair to any QB or RB

Edited January 14, 2015 by ALF

[FireChan]

Good stuff. Can't argue with any of it.

Tell Doug.

[Sisyphean Bills]

The thing about "consistency in the playoffs" is that the teams that win the Superbowl are not always consistent. Joe Flacco isn't consistent. Neither is Eli. They both have had great games against good opponents, and really bad games. Short of hitting on a top 5 generational guy, you want a guy who, at his best, can play great, and you accept that he's gonna have some games or years where he'll play worse and fall short.

 

Exactly. These were precisely the types of QBs that I was alluding to with consistency in the playoffs. Manning and Flacco are capable of playing great against excellent, well-coached teams. They are also streaky and can get on a roll. But both of them are quite capable of lay an egg here and there. (Sorry if I wasn't clear—I was not saying you need a guy who was perfect and never laid an egg ever, because even the great ones [brady, Peyton, Rodgers against the Bills] lay an egg once in a while.)

 

As maligned as Sanchez is, (like I said before) his numbers are trending upwards. He might be on his 3rd team next year. Does he continue to develop? Does he find a fit on a team running a system he can excel in? That has the complementary players? Can the team win consistently, be more than mediocre? It's possible. He might be successful with Bruce Arians, for example.

 

So, closing the circle is what does that tell us about EJM? Is he trending upwards? Is he showing signs of consistency? Or of dominant play? Can he lead? Can a good NFL-caliber coach build an offense around his skills? (You already answered this, I think. Acknowledging that and agreeing. I don't see it with EJM, unfortunately. Maybe we will both be surprised.)

[FireChan]

 

Exactly. These were precisely the types of QBs that I was alluding to with consistency in the playoffs. Manning and Flacco are capable of playing great against excellent, well-coached teams. They are also streaky and can get on a roll. But both of them are quite capable of lay an egg here and there. (Sorry if I wasn't clear—I was not saying you need a guy who was perfect and never laid an egg ever, because even the great ones [brady, Peyton, Rodgers against the Bills] lay an egg once in a while.)

 

As maligned as Sanchez is, (like I said before) his numbers are trending upwards. He might be on his 3rd team next year. Does he continue to develop? Does he find a fit on a team running a system he can excel in? That has the complementary players? Can the team win consistently, be more than mediocre? It's possible. He might be successful with Bruce Arians, for example.

 

So, closing the circle is what does that tell us about EJM? Is he trending upwards? Is he showing signs of consistency? Or of dominant play? Can he lead? Can a good NFL-caliber coach build an offense around his skills? (You already answered this, I think. Acknowledging that and agreeing. I don't see it with EJM, unfortunately. Maybe we will both be surprised.)

Sancho is getting further and further from that point where a QB shows he can rally the team and dominate. It usually comes in the second season based on some of the QB's we've talked about.

 

I think if a QB doesn't have that "light you up" potential, they'll max out as Alex Smith-type QB's. They can manage the game, make most of throws and not ooze incompetence. But you need more luck to win with that guy, because the team around him needs to be extremely competent. Which, in the salary cap era, is very difficult. Flacco/Eli gunslingers can make their own magic and bring the team past their talent. Alex Smith will never do that IMO.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Well so much for what the GM indicated.

 

Basically even if EJ were the starter they will bring in another QB for competition, training and or to replace Tuel

[eball]

Sancho is getting further and further from that point where a QB shows he can rally the team and dominate. It usually comes in the second season based on some of the QB's we've talked about.

 

I think if a QB doesn't have that "light you up" potential, they'll max out as Alex Smith-type QB's. They can manage the game, make most of throws and not ooze incompetence. But you need more luck to win with that guy, because the team around him needs to be extremely competent. Which, in the salary cap era, is very difficult. Flacco/Eli gunslingers can make their own magic and bring the team past their talent. Alex Smith will never do that IMO.

 

Using that criteria I still don't think we have enough info to make an informed opinion about EJ. Rex himself said today, "I'd like to see him use his legs more," which means we're not the only ones questioning how he was coached. Add the early injury issues and does anyone really know what kind of QB EJ is yet? All we have is criticism from those who either expected him to fail from the start, or those who don't acknowledge coaching has something to do with development.

 

The good news is that regardless of who else the Bills bring in at the position, EJ will receive some (we hope) competent coaching from a new staff and we'll see what happens.

[FireChan]

 

Using that criteria I still don't think we have enough info to make an informed opinion about EJ. Rex himself said today, "I'd like to see him use his legs more," which means we're not the only ones questioning how he was coached. Add the early injury issues and does anyone really know what kind of QB EJ is yet? All we have is criticism from those who either expected him to fail from the start, or those who don't acknowledge coaching has something to do with development.

 

The good news is that regardless of who else the Bills bring in at the position, EJ will receive some (we hope) competent coaching from a new staff and we'll see what happens.

Oh, totally agree. He's gotten time, and he'll get more time to show us if he has that.

 

I wasn't applying that to EJ, just as a general thing. With the injury cut season and the development plan thrown out the window for the playoffs, he's got extenuating circumstances. I just haven't seen it yet.