msw2112 Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 msw2112, on 12 Jan 2015 - 1:18 PM, said: I'm not here to bash EJ, and nobody would be happier than me to see him turn his career around and be successful for the Bills. That said, I have watched every game he has played and when I see his stats after the game, I almost always say to myself (or to whoever else is in the room) that his statistics do not tell the true story about how he played. Invariably, his statistics look much better than his actual play was. How does one explain this? Some of it is garbage time - many of his stats are inflated in garbage time and/or against prevent defenses. Others may be a screen pass or a 2 yard dump off to a guy like Fred Jackson who turns it into a 20 yard gain. Looks great for the QB's stats, but wasn't really the result of the QB having done anything spectacular. Also, as one poster mentioned above, his completion percentage tends to be high due to the high number of dump offs (bringing back bad memories of Trentative Edwards). Finally, not all incompletions are created equal. If he misses a wide open received on 3rd and 8, it simply goes in the books as an incompletion, statistically the same as if he threw the ball out of bounds on 2nd and 3 because he was looking downfield and everyone was covered. While both are statistically an incomplete pass, one has a much greater impact on the game. Statistics can be very misleading and comparing two or three players based on statistics alone doesn't mean much. 1) No other qb ever gets yards that pad their stats. 2) Jackson had almost 20 more catches this year than in 2013. In response: 1) Your comment is valid, as all QB's get yards that pad their stats. That said, QB's who play from behind more (prevent D's) and who throw more short passes to RB's, etc. are more likely to have their stats padded (completion % and RAC) than those who throw the ball down the field in contested game situations. In my opinion, for these reasons, Manuel's stats seem to reflect better than his actual play. I was at the Denver game, and Orton's stats were also HIGHLY inflated for these same reasons. 2) I'm not sure why this is relevant to my comments. If you are saying that Orton's stats are also inflated for these same reasons, I totally agree with you. That said, this thread was about EJ Manuel, so that's who my comments pertained to. In addition: 3) Let me restate that I would be overjoyed if Manuel were to take to new coaches and develop into a successful QB. I'm not an EJ basher. I'm just commenting on what I have seen to date from his play (and commenting on how his stats don't paint an accurate picture of his poor play). For some young QB's the light eventually comes on (see Alex Smith under Greg Roman's tutelage - maybe there's hope) and for many more, it does not (see JP Losman, Brady Quinn, Jimmy Clausen, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, Health Shuler, Ryan Leaf, and so on). As Bills fans, I hope we can all agree that we hope that EJ will be more the exception than the rule.
Kelly the Dog Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 (edited) That's the salient point. Everything else is hearsay or insubstantial. All the potential, excuses, reasons, circumstances are just that. None of it makes adequate headway against the fact that EJ has not been successful throwing the deep ball in the NFL. He's had some success, sure. Calling it a strength is a stretch. Anyone, this muddies into an opinion based argument. The fact is that while EJ is young, has the potential to grow, needs others to help around him etc, he has not had much success at throwing the deep ball in the NFL. Period. Agreed. My point is, there are a lot of young QBs who simply don't throw a good deep ball, put way too much air under it or not enough, lack a touch, lack the arm strength, have to change their delivery to throw it like a baseball to get it far enough, etc. EJ doesn't have those issues, and it's a much bigger problem to fix for the other guys. EJ's biggest accuracy problem is not the deep ball, it's missing open targets for no reason, and not hitting guys in stride so the YAC are limited. Those are his two big issues outside of the head-related stuff. Not the deep ball. If he gets confidence, he will hit them with the necessary regularity, or at least good enough. Edited January 13, 2015 by Kelly the Dog
FireChan Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 I posted this on the BBMB a few days ago. What annoys me are the people who say "what are we going to do about qb?" with the assumed certitude that we know EJ Manuel is a lost cause. That's not the assumed certitude. We saw what happened with all our eggs in the EJ Manuel basket, and some folks want a reasonable back up plan on the roster. Is that so bad? You even admit the chance of him being good is low, and you want to bet everything in 2015 on him?
BillsCelticsAngelsBama Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 How do you revive a zombie ? Good Luck with that.
FireChan Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 (edited) Agreed. My point is, there are a lot of young QBs who simply don't throw a good deep ball, put way too much air under it or not enough, lack a touch, lack the arm strength, have to change their delivery to throw it like a baseball to get it far enough, etc. EJ doesn't have those issues, and it's a much bigger problem to fix for the other guys. EJ's biggest accuracy problem is not the deep ball, it's missing open targets for no reason, and not hitting guys in stride so the YAC are limited. Those are his two big issues outside of the head-related stuff. Not the deep ball. If he gets confidence, he will hit them with the necessary regularity, or at least good enough. You're right. It is not a physical limitation with EJ, which cannot be overcome. That's definitely better than the alternative. You can count the successful weak armed QB's on a thumb. I also agree that it is not his biggest problem, but IMO it's the one thing that could really help the Bills offense. Accuracy is not a light bulb, but if EJ even sees a little bit of an improvement throwing deep, it will help our offense immensely. Edited January 13, 2015 by FireChan
Dr. Who Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 That's not the assumed certitude. We saw what happened with all our eggs in the EJ Manuel basket, and some folks want a reasonable back up plan on the roster. Is that so bad? You even admit the chance of him being good is low, and you want to bet everything in 2015 on him? Seriously, I haven't seen anyone suggest there shouldn't be a back-up plan. Even if you have Tom Brady, you need a back-up plan just because injuries happen. If you have uncertainty at a position, you need more than one player. That's common sense. I've seen a lot of posts that do presume that Manuel is not even an option.
Kelly the Dog Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 If Rex didn't think EJ had potential, or that the Pegulas and Whaley were not going to go out and get him a good QB right away, like before OTAs, I think there is no way he takes the job.
FireChan Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 (edited) Seriously, I haven't seen anyone suggest there shouldn't be a back-up plan. Even if you have Tom Brady, you need a back-up plan just because injuries happen. If you have uncertainty at a position, you need more than one player. That's common sense. I've seen a lot of posts that do presume that Manuel is not even an option. I haven't seen anybody of merit say anything about Manuel not being an option. I have seen folks of merit say that he's not good enough right now, and we need to get a guy in case he stops progressing. Edited January 13, 2015 by FireChan
Sisyphean Bills Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 How do you revive a zombie ? Good Luck with that. I think it's a trick question. "Revive" implies that there was consciousness before...
Dr. Who Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 I haven't seen anybody of merit say anything about Manuel not being an option. I have seen folks of merit say that he's not good enough right now, and we need to get a guy in case he stops progressing. Alright. I'm fine with that. You know there are an abundance of people without merit who post on message boards?
FireChan Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 Alright. I'm fine with that. You know there are an abundance of people without merit who post on message boards? Yes, I do. I also know that posting 4 paragraphs in attempt to change their mind is foolhardy. They are knee-jerkers. It's like arguing with posters in the gameday thread. Nothing is gonna change.
Sisyphean Bills Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 Exactly. I hate the move to Orton and it's wasn't so much about Orton. He is what he is. IF EJ was the vet and Orton was the young guy, I'd rather play the young guy. It's like folks that want Cutler. What are the odds that Cutler, in year 9, stops being a d bag and being a turnover machine? After a certain amount of years, you are what you are. Serious question: How many years does it take? If EJM is the same QB he was last year 7 years from now, then we should give up on him based on your Cutler comment. And I know you want to play him or develop him still. But I wonder if there is some point between year 2 and year 10 where we've really seen enough. (This is really a general question. I don't want to make it about investment in EJM.)
Dr. Who Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 If Rex didn't think EJ had potential, or that the Pegulas and Whaley were not going to go out and get him a good QB right away, like before OTAs, I think there is no way he takes the job. I think EJ has potential. Personally, I don't like Cutler, assuming he would be traded. What available veteran would constitute a good qb? I think it's an underwhelming lot. Yes, I do. I also know that posting 4 paragraphs in attempt to change their mind is foolhardy. They are knee-jerkers. It's like arguing with posters in the gameday thread. Nothing is gonna change. I am generally brief. I wrote a dissertation for my own satisfaction and to make a rational case for EJ just because I like the kid and I'm old enough to remember when it was common for a young qb to "mature" for a few years before becoming a starter.
BarleyNY Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 What are they going to say about Manuel? He sucks? We don't expect him to be around long? Talk the kid up early and often. It does no harm. Here are possible results: - You might get surprised and see the light go on with him (unlikely, but not impossible) - You might be stuck with him starting due to not signing a better QB or injury to that QB (like with Kolb) - It sets the table to talk him up some more so that you maximize his trade value in the event you are able to move on. The talk means nothing except that the FO has a clue.
markgbe Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 (edited) What fans can't figure out is that they have no clue. No clue at all in regards to looking at a QB and being able to predict how good (or bad) he'll be. I don't, you don't, nobody on this board does. The fools are the people who have convinced themselves that they have a clue. The guys who get paid millions of dollars a year and spend their lives watching game film have trouble doing it yet many people on this board can look at a few games and state with certainty that a QB simply doesn't have it and the Bills should move on. People don't even understand when they don't understand something. They think they read some articles and watch some games and BAM, they're experts! All the people who "support" EJ just state - time and time again - that it's too early to tell. Sure, odds are he fails (odds are anybody fails, the rate of success for QBs is low.) But that doesn't mean you don't give a kid the chance to develop. The chance he fails jumps to 100% if not given a chance. 14 games does not a chance make. This. There are VERY few people on this board that don't think that they are experts. Edited January 13, 2015 by markgbe
FireChan Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 I am generally brief. I wrote a dissertation for my own satisfaction and to make a rational case for EJ just because I like the kid and I'm old enough to remember when it was common for a young qb to "mature" for a few years before becoming a starter. I wasn't trying to critique your post, but to tell you that changing the mind of the lunatic fringe is not going to happen. They will simply disappear until EJ throws a pick and reign triumphant.
Sisyphean Bills Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 This. There are very few people on this board this don't think that they are experts. Meh. There are people with opinions that come here to share them with fellow Bills fans. As far as getting paid: Ken Lay got paid millions to make decisions. Didn't help Enron much.
Dr. Who Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 I wasn't trying to critique your post, but to tell you that changing the mind of the lunatic fringe is not going to happen. They will simply disappear until EJ throws a pick and reign triumphant. Alas, humanity.
CodeMonkey Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 If Rex didn't think EJ had potential, or that the Pegulas and Whaley were not going to go out and get him a good QB right away, like before OTAs, I think there is no way he takes the job. Maybe. But maybe as some suggest he REALLY wanted to coach and was afraid he wouldn't end up with a place to land after Atlanta and SF were dragging their heels. Is there any way he can know for certain the Bills will get a good QB? Is there a glut of them available? Will one be there in the 2nd round of this draft (or even the 1st) ? Rex will do the best he can with what he is given. Hopefully it turns out better than it did with the Jets.
FireChan Posted January 13, 2015 Posted January 13, 2015 (edited) Serious question: How many years does it take? If EJM is the same QB he was last year 7 years from now, then we should give up on him based on your Cutler comment. And I know you want to play him or develop him still. But I wonder if there is some point between year 2 and year 10 where we've really seen enough. (This is really a general question. I don't want to make it about investment in EJM.) This is such a tough question. I think you keep a guy for 2 years minimum. Then, by his third year, if he his not playing well enough to reasonably keep you in contention for the post-season, you start to look elsewhere. The problem is, if you have a great team around the young guy, you can hide his deficiencies or at least use the "he's playing well enough to win games" argument, which sort of works. With the salary cap, however, getting a lesser team is almost guaranteed and the wheels come off. As evidence, I submit the Blane Gabbert's and Mark Sanchez's first two seasons. If Blaine was on NY in 09-10, he would've lasted a lot longer due to the team being so great. If Mark had the same two first seasons on the Jags, he would not have lasted 5 years there. Edited January 13, 2015 by FireChan
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