With the 19th pick in the 2015 draft, no franchise qb

[GunnerBill]

I think Carr had a couple of stellar games and a couple of absolute stinkers. His best games are probably a level above where EJ has been on his best days (Panthers, Jets (2nd time), Jaguars) his stinkers have been every bit as bad as EJ's though. I think Carr showed good promise though and if you were giving me a choice between the two in terms of who as this point having played a similar number of games has shown more ability to be a successful pocket Quarterback in the NFL I would give Carr the edge.

[YoloinOhio]

So fwiw I heard Winston is NOT going to declare and is returning to FSU.

Source at OSU - Braxton visited there over the wknd for potential transfer and was told this, FSU is informing GMs soon.

 

Edit - though I believe he has until the 15th to change his mind

Edited January 6, 2015 by YoloinOhio

[Hapless Bills Fan]

If Whaley believes that Watkins represents a player that will become All-World, then how could you blame him. I love Watkins and hate the trade at the same time. It isn't a huge issue feeling both ways for me. Players like Watkins make coaches and team mates look better. If and when this organization gets it right at QB in the near future, there will be experienced talent that one hopes will be entering their prime. I think it is time to recognize as fans that the Bills need a major uptick in QB performance, regardless of who that player is. We are all Fred Jackson and Kyle Williams fans because of their leadership and performance. They are ambassadors for the league in every way and produce when hope for many is usually lost. I don't understand having such low expectations for the QB position where fans argue so feverishly about QBs that play like garbage. This team has had nothing but Chris Kelsays at QB and yet who here has ever celebrated his appearance on the final 46 as a DE? It's a terrible cycle of self-inflicted abuse. It is time to sit back until the real Sherrif comes into town and out duels Brady. Sorry, but having a next level defense and a next level QB are what it will take to win playoff games. Anything less is masturbation, hence no Baby. You can't win a Super Bowl through artificial insemination.

 

There is no question that the Bills need a better QB.

 

OTOH I would like to point out that teams lead by mediocre QB have put the smack-down on brilliant QB, including Brady and Manning, in more than one playoff game.

Examples: Sanchez/Jets over Brady/NE* 2011. Brady was made to look bad by a brilliant defensive game from Rex Ryan.

No one except maybe Harbaugh thinks Flacco is a better QB than Brady, but the Ravens have the edge in playoff games over NE 2:1 over the last 5 years.

 

Peyton Manning? A guy who is undeniably one of the great QB of all time has been whumped in playoff games by teams QB by such greats as:

-Steve McNair

-Jay Fiedler

-Chad Pennington

-Mark Sanchez

 

He's also been beaten by some much higher quality QB including Rivers, Roethlisrapist, Brady, Flacco, and Wilson of course.

 

Again, my point isn't that the Bills don't need a better QB or that you don't need a much better QB to win a championship. My point is that playoff defeats of great QB can be engineered with strong D, strong coaching, and adequate QB play. If you're asked "who would you pick as your QB?" most would take Peyton over Eli Manning. If the question is "who has more Superbowl rings" well.....it takes a next-level QB over Fitzpatrick or Orton, for sure, but out-dueling Peyton or Brady is not necessary.

It's always best to stand pat and wait for the QB to come to you.

 

Not having a first round pick means the Bills' leverage is severely weakened. It means they have almost no opportunity, short of trading their 2016 first rounder, to move up if a QB is available. I'm not saying one will be, but it also means they can't trade down to acquire extra picks either.

 

When you mortgage your future, eventually the piper needs to be paid. Maybe there won't be a good QB available at 19. What I do know is the Bills have almost no shot at getting one between about the mid first round and deep into the second. That is, unless they want to trade more picks.

 

From a strategic perspective the trade for Watkins made no sense, especially considering what they had at QB. Instant gratification fans will never see that though.

 

 

Who is this Magical Franchise Sure Shot QB coming out this year that the Bills have severely weakened their chance to move up and draft? Do you want Winston or Mariota?

 

I do find it ironic that people who have labeled EJ a "bust" on a very limited data set dis off "instant gratification fans". There is a long list of (at least capable) NFL QB who have not looked better than EJ their first several seasons, especially if stuck with a less-than-capable offensive scheme and coach.

[mabden]

drew brees, tom brady, tony romo, russell wilson and joe flacco all say hi.

 

 

dalton, kaepernick and foles say don't forget about us.

Joe Montana was a 3rd round pick.

[1B4IDie]

 

 

Days before the draft GR talked non stop how he liked Beckham and how much he wanted to trade up for Watkins, since Watkins happened I believe the interest in Beckham was real as well.

Not at #9 overall.

[1B4IDie]

A lot of people still criticize the Watkins deal, but we gave up what became the 19th pick.

 

Question: What franchise quarterback is going to be available at the 19th pick? Answer: Nobody that we know of, or they wouldn't be around at #19.

 

Question: How many wins did Sammy Watkins add to our record? I'm going to say 2 or 3. He made a difference.

 

Question: If we kept the 9th pick, who would we have chosen? The tight end from North Carolina. Ebron. How many wins would he add to our record? He hasn't done jack squat in Detroit.

 

 

Question: How do you think Sammy Watkins would do with a quarterback like Manning? Answer: Better than he did in Buffalo. He's awesome.

 

I therefore conclude, and offer for speculation, that we're in fine shape. We wouldn't have gotten a franchise QB next year anyway. We may have one standing on the sidelines. Maybe Marrone just ruined his chances of excelling. Maybe we should see what EJ has to offer.

 

The team can sign a free agent guard with the equivalence of a first round pick, thus compensating us quite easily for the trade of that pick.

 

We're fine.

 

Shred away, my friends.

 

 

The Watkins trade is a no brainer.

 

It was a slam dunk deal that worked out for the Bills.

 

The 2015 draft class is very weak all around and Other than Winston Mariotta the QBs are weak.

 

Brett Hundley pretty much declared, although I don't believe officially declared.

 

The way QBs are drafted after the Rookie Salary Pool, I can see someone taking Hundley early or trading back, up into the late 1st round and taking Hundley in the 1st.

 

That being said, right now, Hundley is projected anywhere from #64 - #4. He will be the most inspected prospect throughout the draft process. Like EJ all it takes is one GM to fall in love with you and you're a Top 20 pick.

 

That would be one QB that could there at #19 in the 2015 draft. However the Bills wouldn't pick #19 if they didn't trade for Sammy Watkins.

I am 100% certain that the Bills record would be more like 6-10 without the Sammy Watkins trade which would give us the #10 overall pick in 2015. Which is a really weird spot for QBs in 2015.

If Winston falls (doubt it) to #10 then the Bills would have had to take him at #10, but taking Hundley at #10 is likely a reach.

No one wants to trade up to #10 in the 2015 draft because the draft class is so weak, so trading back to the late 1st from #10 overall wouldn't likely be an option.

 

All that being said. Any distractors of the Watkins trade are looking at the pick in a vacuum in hindsight.

They point to Odell Beckham Jr. however he was not a consus top 10 pick in May 2014 and definitely would have been considered a "reach" at #9 overall. Not to mentionODB didn't contribute early for the Giants and there is no indication that he would have contributed at all for the Bills. The Bills could not connect on long passes. Eli Manning makes those deep throws. Both EJ and Orton (At the coaching of Morrone/Hackett) had teh fewest "air yards" in the NFL. ODB would not change that.

 

Here is an article written by ESPN in May 2014.

ODB is considered the 'riskiest" pick and they would have prefered that the giants went O-line at #12.

At the time in May 2014, ODB was not even on the table at #9 overall. Pure Revisionist history to expect any GM to make that pick at #9 overall.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york-giants/post/_/id/36179/giants-draft-wrap-up

Riskiest move: The selection of LSU wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. with the 12th pick of the draft isn't "risky" in the traditional sense -- meaning, I don't think he's a threat to be a bust. I think Beckham is likely to be a very good player for the Giants. But passing on offensive lineman Zack Martin for a potential game-breaking receiver was a risky move.

 

How risky would ODB have been considered at #9 overall, taken in front of Taylor Lewan and Eric Ebron? The Bills would have been lambasted for taking ODB at #9 overall, and again it would have been deserved the way this offense works. No way ODB puts up those numbers in Buffalo.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Why So Serious?

[NoSaint]

Derek Carr - 16 GP, 58.1% Comp, 21 TDs, 12 Picks, 5.5 yards/attempt, 76.6 Rating

Teddy Bridgewater - 13 GP, 64.4%, 14/12, 7.3 y/a, 85.2 Rating

EJ - 14 GP, 58.6%, 16/12, 6.4 y/a, 78.5 Rating

 

So how exactly do either of those two guys look to be much better than EJ? Not to mention the complete ineptitude that EJ has been dealing with in play calling, putting an OLine out there that can't block anyone up the middle, missing virtually his entire rookie training camp, and playing many games well short of 100% health wise. I'm interested to see what EJ can do with some competence in the offensive coaching.

EJs failures have certainly been exaggerated. hes no slam dunk to succeed or anything. in fact hes a long shot. but all these second tier prospects are and they all have similar stat lines and highlights/lowlights

[1B4IDie]

So fwiw I heard Winston is NOT going to declare and is returning to FSU.

 

Source at OSU - Braxton visited there over the wknd for potential transfer and was told this, FSU is informing GMs soon.

 

Edit - though I believe he has until the 15th to change his mind

That would be shocking.

 

1.)Winston is guaranteed to be the #2 QB of the board.

2.)The blown away fumble is super embarrassing however, he is 26-1 as starter, won a national championship where he put the team on his back, and won a Heisman.

3.)There is no way Florida State wins a national championship next year.

4.)His off field issues are a ticking timeclock until the NCAA decides to suspend him and or my favorite thing, "vacate wins." He wants to be the NFL when that happens.

[flmike]

Winston may have first round talent but he has 7th round issues. Mariota is a great college QB who will be a bigger bust than RGIII and Tebow. Watch the games. He throws three passes. A bubble screen, a ten yard in, and a seam fly pattern. That is it. There will be a QB in the second round or later that will have a much better chance of being a successful pro than those two.

Go get Cutler and stop worrying about QB for the next three years.

 

Hardly. Winston is top 5 talent, but raw in the mental game. He should stay at FSU one more year - and just might. The media made way too much of the off-field stuff and even made some of it up, apparently. The kid is big, tough, and can make the throws. He will do well.

[YoloinOhio]

That would be shocking.

 

1.)Winston is guaranteed to be the #2 QB of the board.

2.)The blown away fumble is super embarrassing however, he is 26-1 as starter, won a national championship where he put the team on his back, and won a Heisman.

3.)There is no way Florida State wins a national championship next year.

4.)His off field issues are a ticking timeclock until the NCAA decides to suspend him and or my favorite thing, "vacate wins." He wants to be the NFL when that happens.

I don't know... It's been reported all along that he was coming back (by his dad). Also he said he is focused on baseball right now and it would be very difficult (and ill-advised) for him to try to prep for the draft at the same time as playing baseball. Finally, I see no reason they can't win the NC next year.

[C.Biscuit97]

EJs failures have certainly been exaggerated. hes no slam dunk to succeed or anything. in fact hes a long shot. but all these second tier prospects are and they all have similar stat lines and highlights/lowlights

 

 

Good post as always. When I have more time, I will post EJ's numbers compared to other young QBs. His numbers from his rookie year are almost on par with Flacco's rookie year and Flacco is a monster in the postseason now.

 

Marrone screwed this franchise in so many ways. But at least Orton got us that win against NE's backups!!!

[DanInUticaTampa]

We could have Odell Beckham, who Whaley really liked and was rumored to take if at 9, and it's doubtful we could have traded up for a top QB but the player we get 19 has a lot better chance of being good then who we get at 50.

 

most of the rumors point to ebron being the pick if we stayed at our spot

[billsfan89]

IMHO, had Buffalo drafted Beckham instead of Watkins, Beckham's numbers would have been, at best, no better than what Watkins produced in this offense...and, I still believe Watkins' long term potential (in a decent offense) is far greater than Beckham's...

 

Beckham was hurt for a long stretch of the season, that would have really hurt the offense which was already gasping for air even with Sammy out there. The Bills could have maybe traded down and gotten an extra 2nd round pick and taken Kelvin Benjamin which would have been a good option then they could have gone O-line twice in round 2. But that's all 20/20 looking back knowing what you have. For picks 9 and 19 the Bills got a stud WR in Watkins, you can debate the value of the trade up all you want, but at least we ended up with a really good player.

[metzelaars_lives]

drew brees, tom brady, tony romo, russell wilson and joe flacco all say hi.

 

 

dalton, kaepernick and foles say don't forget about us.

flacco was a mid first rounder.

[Mickey]

A lot of people still criticize the Watkins deal, but we gave up what became the 19th pick.

 

Question: What franchise quarterback is going to be available at the 19th pick? Answer: Nobody that we know of, or they wouldn't be around at #19.

 

Question: How many wins did Sammy Watkins add to our record? I'm going to say 2 or 3. He made a difference.

 

Question: If we kept the 9th pick, who would we have chosen? The tight end from North Carolina. Ebron. How many wins would he add to our record? He hasn't done jack squat in Detroit.

 

 

Question: How do you think Sammy Watkins would do with a quarterback like Manning? Answer: Better than he did in Buffalo. He's awesome.

 

I therefore conclude, and offer for speculation, that we're in fine shape. We wouldn't have gotten a franchise QB next year anyway. We may have one standing on the sidelines. Maybe Marrone just ruined his chances of excelling. Maybe we should see what EJ has to offer.

 

The team can sign a free agent guard with the equivalence of a first round pick, thus compensating us quite easily for the trade of that pick.

 

We're fine.

 

Shred away, my friends.

 

With the 19th pick in the first round, it would be possible to trade up high enough to get one of the few QB's worth taking in this draft. It would in fact be a trade very similar to what we did for Watkins. Its all hindsight at this point any way. I don't have a problem with them taking Watkins but if we knew then what we know now, we would have been better off trading down and picking up one of the other receivers in that draft. But no one knew then that it was going to be such a rich draft for WR's.

[1B4IDie]

With the 19th pick in the first round, it would be possible to trade up high enough to get one of the few QB's worth taking in this draft. It would in fact be a trade very similar to what we did for Watkins. Its all hindsight at this point any way. I don't have a problem with them taking Watkins but if we knew then what we know now, we would have been better off trading down and picking up one of the other receivers in that draft. But no one knew then that it was going to be such a rich draft for WR's.

You are way off.

 

It would take a King's ransom to move up from #19 overall to #2 overall.

 

I went back and got the actually traditional value.

 

The Value of the #1 overall pick is 3000 points, the value of the #2 overall pick is 2600 points.

 

The value of the #19 overall pick is 875. The value of every 19th pick from Rounds 1-7 is 1565 points.

 

Basically to move up from #19 overall to #2 overall (and draft Winston) It would take the entire 2015 draft plus 2016 1st and 2nd. Usually future draft picks are discounted at 50%.

 

To move up from #19 overall to #1 overall would probably take all the picks from 2015 draft, 2016#1, 2017#1 and probably a couple extra picks in either the 2016 or 2017 pick.

 

This values are used to structure deals. You can go pack through actual NFL trades and do the point values and most are in line with these values that supposedly Jimmy Johnson put together.

 

The Sammy deal did not "Mortgage the future" a deal like the ones it would take to move up from #19 to #2 would "Mortgage the future" and remember it would be to get Winston not Marriotta. Which would make people on this board lose their minds.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Why So Serious?

[Chuck Wagon]

I don't know... It's been reported all along that he was coming back (by his dad). Also he said he is focused on baseball right now and it would be very difficult (and ill-advised) for him to try to prep for the draft at the same time as playing baseball. Finally, I see no reason they can't win the NC next year.

 

 

I think he's coming back. He might not be the sharpest crayon in the box but he has to see the Manziel affect and know there's a chance he falls out of the first round. He can come back, keep his nose clean for a year and be the #1 overall pick. It's all Mariota right now.

 

Most of Jameis off the field incidents can be written off as a college kid having fun and not fully understanding the microscope he's under. The assault charges are alarming but ultimately a "he said, she said" situation with no real evidence.

I was talking to the other guy who said "has no basis in fact." I just assumed he's looking purely at their stats on ESPN.

 

 

I know, I'm new to the board, still figuring out the mechanics, but thanks for having my back.

[mannc]

 

Beckham was hurt for a long stretch of the season, that would have really hurt the offense which was already gasping for air even with Sammy out there. The Bills could have maybe traded down and gotten an extra 2nd round pick and taken Kelvin Benjamin which would have been a good option then they could have gone O-line twice in round 2. But that's all 20/20 looking back knowing what you have. For picks 9 and 19 the Bills got a stud WR in Watkins, you can debate the value of the trade up all you want, but at least we ended up with a really good player.

Are you sure Beckham would have gotten injured if he was a Bill? How was he injured?

[FireChan]

I have watched him 3 or 4 times. I know all you guys love to point to arbitrary and objective things, I point to facts. Numbers never lie.

 

Also, did I just hear at the end of the WGR morning show that someone is reporting that Winston is staying at FSU for another year?

Numbers said that RG3 was a better QB than Luck.

 

You watch 3 games of Carr's and now you're an expert? What if I just watched the Tampa game, Steelers game, and Houston game of EJ's? Would you accept that I know how good or bad he is?

Edited January 6, 2015 by FireChan

[qblax16]

Agree with the subject line completely! I'll go as far as saying, I'd rather have Sammy than any of those players at 19 this year.

 

(I'd also rather have Odell Beckham, but honestly to criticize that pick Sammy was the clear #1 in the draft coming out. Mike Evans might have been close, but strong majority favored Watkins, and I still favor Watkins bc Evans will be in trouble in 3 years or less).

Edited January 6, 2015 by qblax16