With the 19th pick in the 2015 draft, no franchise qb

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Actually it was a surprise that Rodgers lasted until that pick.

 

I disagree that there are many examples. To be sure, there are some examples of very good abs who weren't drafted at the top of round 1, but there really have been very few really good QBs at all - they are very rare and it is often luck when a team finds one or has the privilege of drafting high in a rare year when an obvious great one is available.

 

Hi OldTimer,

 

Several of us on this board who are number-crunchers have asked a question like this:

What is the probability that a QB drafted in the top of the 1st round will become a successful NFL QB? How does that probability change in the bottom of the 1st round? The 2nd round?

 

We ask this question because while undoubtedly some fine QB have been drafted in later rounds, what are the odds? They do get smaller.

 

The devil is in the details, of course. It doesn't make a lot of sense to ask "what are the odds a 1st round QB will become Peyton Manning, or Brady, or Rodgers, because there are really only a handful of those sorts of talents drafted over decades. The odds of picking one of them up are very small in any position of any draft. But it does say, if we want to at least pick a guy who can start, what should we do? My criteria were: starts for at least 5 seasons with ~60% completions, >1 TD and <1 INT (+/- fudge) per game and >6 A/YPA. I don't use rating because it's widely regarded as not too good and I don't look at rushing yards (because while useful, that increases the chance of injury) or QBR (it's another post to discuss that stat)

 

People who use different criteria get different answers, but the overall picture is the same: it increases the odds of getting a servicable guy if you draft in the top 10-15 picks, but the QB still fails at least as often as he succeeds (40-50%). The rest of the 1st round and the 1st few picks of the 2nd, odds drop to 30% or so.

2nd or 3rd, 20% or so but the distinctions start getting lost.

 

This is from memory - somewhere in the archives there's a couple posts from me and a couple from Dibs doing somewhat different breakdowns that came to the same general sort of conclusion.

 

Interestingly, the odds aren't nearly as different on other positions except DT and LT. The team's chances of picking up a long-term starter at OG or LB are not nearly as different between the top of the 1st and the middle of the 2nd (a Luke Kuechly or Von Miller type LB excepted).

[TC in St. Louis]

Maybe I should have named it "No obvious franchise QB's at number 19"

There are always going to be examples of 2nd round, 3rd round, sixth round, udfa qb's who become stars. My point was anybody who is pinned as a franchise qb would be long gone anyway.

 

Aaron Rodgers was an exception. He was rated 1 or 1a with Alex Smith, and the Niners just made the wrong pick. There was no other team that year looking for a qb, so the Packers, who had Favre, made this luxury pick. He sat for a few years and became a great quarterback.

 

Who is to say that EJ Manuel won't benefit from being on the sidelines for a year or two? He does have great talent. That's another topic.

 

I say we'll sign the equivalent of a first round pick offensive lineman in the offseason that will compensate for losing pick number 19. And we already have Bryce Brown, who compensates for the 4th.

[Mark80]

I'm going to make a bold statement. I believe that Jameis Winston will be available at #19. I also believe that he is the best pure QB in this draft.

 

I still wouldn't want the Bills to draft him though.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Mark80

[BuffaloFan68]

I say we go with the best OG available with our first pick and then BPA from there on out. A new HC with a good OC should be able to turn our offense around.

[Dopey]

I'm going to make a bold statement. I believe that Jameis Winston will be available at #19. I also believe that he is the best pure QB in this draft.

 

I still wouldn't want the Bills to draft him though.

Even If he's there at 19, we couldn't pick him. Now, if we still had that pick, I would pick him. He's better than EJ, who we took in the late 1st.

[bigK14094]

The Bills are going to have to pick up a vet QB or two. All available (short of the Eli Mannings of the world who we will not get) have negative talk regarding their capabilities. Thinking through all that negative stuff, you have to take a chance or two to find something of value. Actually, Orton was that kind of chance....had some capability, but was dissed all over the league. We saw his best and worst, and yes, it was a mixed bag....but we won with him. Now, having done some thinking about the situation, I think one draft choice....non premium but the best available is a good idea...and dump Tuel....if he was going to make it, he would have already. Practice squad guy for next year.....for the vet......I guess I might take a chance with Christian Ponder....reason? Well, Chan Gailey, the last guy we had here who was capable on the offensive side thought Ponder was great when he coached him in the Senior bowl, and the Bills would have taken him had he not been gone...Minn took him. Now, lots of negatives from the Minn crowd....three years in and he is available.......not so sure he wouldn't be somebody to take a look at. I can seen how a glass that is half full is given news coverage as half empty. imho

[Mark80]

Even If he's there at 19, we couldn't pick him. Now, if we still had that pick, I would pick him. He's better than EJ, who we took in the late 1st.

I was speaking in theory. While I agree he is most likely better than EJ on a pure talent level, I just wouldn't want him as a leader and face of my franchise (which all QBs really are...or should be). EJ has him blown away on that aspect.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Mark80

[Chuck Wagon]

Drafting EJ was where we screwed up in the first place.

 

Our advanced scouting should have told us there were much better options the next year (ESPN's talking heads were all saying there were several prospects better than EJ in the 2014 draft as soon as he was picked). Look at the players drafted after EJ: Kyle Long, Eric Reid, DeAndre Hopkins, Sheriff Floyd just to name a few. We would have likely been worse last year had we just gone with Kolb/Lewis/Tuel at QB which would have put us in a position to get Sammy or Evans without moving up and been able to grab Bridgewater or Carr at the beginning of round 2 (or move up to the end of round 1).

 

Pure and simple we talking ourselves into taking EJ in the first round and were the only team that placed that value on him. It created a trickle down that forced us to ignore two guys who look to be much better than him in last years draft and the need to give him weapons to justify the pick cost us a very good player this year.

[Mark80]

Drafting EJ was where we screwed up in the first place.

 

Our advanced scouting should have told us there were much better options the next year (ESPN's talking heads were all saying there were several prospects better than EJ in the 2014 draft as soon as he was picked). Look at the players drafted after EJ: Kyle Long, Eric Reid, DeAndre Hopkins, Sheriff Floyd just to name a few. We would have likely been worse last year had we just gone with Kolb/Lewis/Tuel at QB which would have put us in a position to get Sammy or Evans without moving up and been able to grab Bridgewater or Carr at the beginning of round 2 (or move up to the end of round 1).

 

Pure and simple we talking ourselves into taking EJ in the first round and were the only team that placed that value on him. It created a trickle down that forced us to ignore two guys who look to be much better than him in last years draft and the need to give him weapons to justify the pick cost us a very good player this year.

 

Derek Carr - 16 GP, 58.1% Comp, 21 TDs, 12 Picks, 5.5 yards/attempt, 76.6 Rating

Teddy Bridgewater - 13 GP, 64.4%, 14/12, 7.3 y/a, 85.2 Rating

EJ - 14 GP, 58.6%, 16/12, 6.4 y/a, 78.5 Rating

 

So how exactly do either of those two guys look to be much better than EJ? Not to mention the complete ineptitude that EJ has been dealing with in play calling, putting an OLine out there that can't block anyone up the middle, missing virtually his entire rookie training camp, and playing many games well short of 100% health wise. I'm interested to see what EJ can do with some competence in the offensive coaching.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Mark80

[RealityCheck]

If Whaley believes that Watkins represents a player that will become All-World, then how could you blame him. I love Watkins and hate the trade at the same time. It isn't a huge issue feeling both ways for me. Players like Watkins make coaches and team mates look better. If and when this organization gets it right at QB in the near future, there will be experienced talent that one hopes will be entering their prime. I think it is time to recognize as fans that the Bills need a major uptick in QB performance, regardless of who that player is. We are all Fred Jackson and Kyle Williams fans because of their leadership and performance. They are ambassadors for the league in every way and produce when hope for many is usually lost. I don't understand having such low expectations for the QB position where fans argue so feverishly about QBs that play like garbage. This team has had nothing but Chris Kelsays at QB and yet who here has ever celebrated his appearance on the final 46 as a DE? It's a terrible cycle of self-inflicted abuse. It is time to sit back until the real Sherrif comes into town and out duels Brady. Sorry, but having a next level defense and a next level QB are what it will take to win playoff games. Anything less is masturbation, hence no Baby. You can't win a Super Bowl through artificial insemination.

[Chuck Wagon]

Derek Carr - 16 GP, 58.1% Comp, 21 TDs, 12 Picks, 5.5 yards/attempt, 76.6 Rating

Teddy Bridgewater - 13 GP, 64.4%, 14/12, 7.3 y/a, 85.2 Rating

EJ - 14 GP, 58.6%, 16/12, 6.4 y/a, 78.5 Rating

 

So how exactly do either of those two guys look to be much better than EJ? Not to mention the complete ineptitude that EJ has been dealing with in play calling, putting an OLine out there that can't block anyone up the middle, missing virtually his entire rookie training camp, and playing many games well short of 100% health wise. I'm interested to see what EJ can do with some competence in the offensive coaching.

Bridgewater should not require any explanation. As for Carr, the guy can make all the throws, EJ can't. The offensive talent surrounding Carr makes us look like a pro bowl squad.

[The Jokeman]

nobody thought aaron rodgers was worth the 19th pick.

 

lots of other examples.

Actually the great debate of that draft is whether Rodgers or Alex Smith was supposed to go 1st overall to San Francisco. Rodgers did fall way longer than most anticipated but remember this that Rodger sat on the bench for 3 years in Green Bay. That said Green Bay wasn't 100% sure he was going to be what they had hoped being they also drafted Brian Brohm in the 2nd Round and Matt Flynn in the 7th Round the year Rodgers was to be the starter. Also the Packers were 13-3 the year before Rodgers took over so it's not like he was starting for a bad team. It's why I always say franchise QBs are made and not born as all too often great QBs are surrounding by great talent. I know many feel that QBs make the talent around them better but it's debatable.

[Mark80]

Bridgewater should not require any explanation. As for Carr, the guy can make all the throws, EJ can't. The offensive talent surrounding Carr makes us look like a pro bowl squad.

Did you watch the game versus the Bills? He looked terrible. He mad two long throws that he just threw up and our CBs should have made plays on them but his WRs made tremendous plays, the rest of the game he did nothing at all. All they did was run where Dareus used to be.

 

And to say either one "looked way better" is simply a false statement with no basis in fact.

Edited January 6, 2015 by Mark80

[papazoid]

Maybe I should have named it "No obvious franchise QB's at number 19"

There are always going to be examples of 2nd round, 3rd round, sixth round, udfa qb's who become stars. My point was anybody who is pinned as a franchise qb would be long gone anyway.

 

Aaron Rodgers was an exception. He was rated 1 or 1a with Alex Smith, and the Niners just made the wrong pick. There was no other team that year looking for a qb, so the Packers, who had Favre, made this luxury pick. He sat for a few years and became a great quarterback.

 

Who is to say that EJ Manuel won't benefit from being on the sidelines for a year or two? He does have great talent. That's another topic.

 

I say we'll sign the equivalent of a first round pick offensive lineman in the offseason that will compensate for losing pick number 19. And we already have Bryce Brown, who compensates for the 4th.

 

or maybe with the exception of a very few.....the entire draft is a crap shoot.

[FireChan]

Did you watch the game versus the Bills? He looked terrible. He mad two long throws that he just threw up and our CBs should have made plays on them but his WRs made tremendous plays, the rest of the game he did nothing at all. All they did was run where Dareus used to be.

 

And to say either one "looked way better" is simply a false statement with no basis in fact.

How many Raiders games have you watched this season?

[BillsVet]

It's always best to stand pat and wait for the QB to come to you.

 

Not having a first round pick means the Bills' leverage is severely weakened. It means they have almost no opportunity, short of trading their 2016 first rounder, to move up if a QB is available. I'm not saying one will be, but it also means they can't trade down to acquire extra picks either.

 

When you mortgage your future, eventually the piper needs to be paid. Maybe there won't be a good QB available at 19. What I do know is the Bills have almost no shot at getting one between about the mid first round and deep into the second. That is, unless they want to trade more picks.

 

From a strategic perspective the trade for Watkins made no sense, especially considering what they had at QB. Instant gratification fans will never see that though.

Edited January 6, 2015 by BillsVet

[Chuck Wagon]

How many Raiders games have you watched this season?

 

 

Carr looked pretty good in their Thursday night game vs KC and in their win against San Fran. Our defense made Rodgers look pedestrian. And again, he was playing with perhaps the least offensive talent in the entire league. I know I'd trade EJ for Carr in a heartbeat and I'm pretty sure it would be a quick no from Oakland.

[FireChan]

 

 

Carr looked pretty good in their Thursday night game vs KC and in their win against San Fran. Our defense made Rodgers look pedestrian. And again, he was playing with perhaps the least offensive talent in the entire league. I know I'd trade EJ for Carr in a heartbeat and I'm pretty sure it would be a quick no from Oakland.

I was talking to the other guy who said "has no basis in fact." I just assumed he's looking purely at their stats on ESPN.

[TC in St. Louis]

So you compensate for your loss of the 19th pick by signing a top flight free agent guard, like Iupati. Consider it a wash. You're gonna have to solve your quarterback crisis soon.

 

Don't give up on EJ. Who says he can't make the throws? He has a great arm. He just needs coaching.

[Mark80]

I was talking to the other guy who said "has no basis in fact." I just assumed he's looking purely at their stats on ESPN.

I have watched him 3 or 4 times. I know all you guys love to point to arbitrary and objective things, I point to facts. Numbers never lie.

 

Also, did I just hear at the end of the WGR morning show that someone is reporting that Winston is staying at FSU for another year?

Edited January 6, 2015 by Mark80