With the 19th pick in the 2015 draft, no franchise qb

[TC in St. Louis]

A lot of people still criticize the Watkins deal, but we gave up what became the 19th pick.

 

Question: What franchise quarterback is going to be available at the 19th pick? Answer: Nobody that we know of, or they wouldn't be around at #19.

 

Question: How many wins did Sammy Watkins add to our record? I'm going to say 2 or 3. He made a difference.

 

Question: If we kept the 9th pick, who would we have chosen? The tight end from North Carolina. Ebron. How many wins would he add to our record? He hasn't done jack squat in Detroit.

 

 

Question: How do you think Sammy Watkins would do with a quarterback like Manning? Answer: Better than he did in Buffalo. He's awesome.

 

I therefore conclude, and offer for speculation, that we're in fine shape. We wouldn't have gotten a franchise QB next year anyway. We may have one standing on the sidelines. Maybe Marrone just ruined his chances of excelling. Maybe we should see what EJ has to offer.

 

The team can sign a free agent guard with the equivalence of a first round pick, thus compensating us quite easily for the trade of that pick.

 

We're fine.

 

Shred away, my friends.

 

[FireChan]

I think you can add more than 3 for Sammy. Many of the great plays Woods or Hogan had were made possible by the amount of coverage dedicated to Sammy. One example was that great play by Woods on 4th down against the Browns. Sammy had triple coverage on him that play IIRC. There hasn't been a Bills WR that gets that much attention from a defense in a long time.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

We could have Odell Beckham, who Whaley really liked and was rumored to take if at 9, and it's doubtful we could have traded up for a top QB but the player we get 19 has a lot better chance of being good then who we get at 50.

[NickelCity]

I thought most of us felt that way about the trade and this year's prospects...but I could be out of the loop. Anyway, I agree.

 

EDIT: it's pointless to argue about it, but I don't think there was a snowball's chance in hell that we would have taken OBJ if we hadn't traded.

Edited January 6, 2015 by NickelCity

[Uffalo Ills]

We could have Odell Beckham, who Whaley really liked and was rumored to take if at 9, and it's doubtful we could have traded up for a top QB but the player we get 19 has a lot better chance of being good then who we get at 50.

Whaley was rumored to want ebron...

[Dragonborn10]

Winston may have first round talent but he has 7th round issues. Mariota is a great college QB who will be a bigger bust than RGIII and Tebow. Watch the games. He throws three passes. A bubble screen, a ten yard in, and a seam fly pattern. That is it. There will be a QB in the second round or later that will have a much better chance of being a successful pro than those two.

Go get Cutler and stop worrying about QB for the next three years.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Whaley was rumored to want ebron...

 

 

Days before the draft GR talked non stop how he liked Beckham and how much he wanted to trade up for Watkins, since Watkins happened I believe the interest in Beckham was real as well.

[JM57]

We could have Odell Beckham, who Whaley really liked and was rumored to take if at 9, and it's doubtful we could have traded up for a top QB but the player we get 19 has a lot better chance of being good then who we get at 50.

Watkins could still end up being worth more then Beckham. It's just a matter of getting a coach in here that will target Sammy in the same way that the Giants targeted Beckham down the stretch

[papazoid]

A lot of people still criticize the Watkins deal, but we gave up what became the 19th pick.

 

Question: What franchise quarterback is going to be available at the 19th pick? Answer: Nobody that we know of, or they wouldn't be around at #19.

 

Question: How many wins did Sammy Watkins add to our record? I'm going to say 2 or 3. He made a difference.

 

Question: If we kept the 9th pick, who would we have chosen? The tight end from North Carolina. Ebron. How many wins would he add to our record? He hasn't done jack squat in Detroit.

 

 

Question: How do you think Sammy Watkins would do with a quarterback like Manning? Answer: Better than he did in Buffalo. He's awesome.

 

I therefore conclude, and offer for speculation, that we're in fine shape. We wouldn't have gotten a franchise QB next year anyway. We may have one standing on the sidelines. Maybe Marrone just ruined his chances of excelling. Maybe we should see what EJ has to offer.

 

The team can sign a free agent guard with the equivalence of a first round pick, thus compensating us quite easily for the trade of that pick.

 

We're fine.

 

Shred away, my friends.

 

nobody thought aaron rodgers was worth the 19th pick.

 

lots of other examples.

[bills_fan_in_raleigh]

Find the next Tom Brady in the sixth

[GunnerBill]

The Giants were also freewheeling down the stretch out of contention, behind in a lot of football games letting Eli throw as much as possible as his comfort increased in the new offense. We were playing conservative trying to win tight games that our defense had us in position to win. It is also true to say as good as Beckham has been he was a gamble - most draft experts agreed. Sammy was as close to a sure thing as sure things get. Everyone other than Winston and Mariota in this draft is a project starter rather than a day 1 franchise guy in my mind.

[OldTimer1960]

nobody thought aaron rodgers was worth the 19th pick.

 

lots of other examples.

Actually it was a surprise that Rodgers lasted until that pick.

 

I disagree that there are many examples. To be sure, there are some examples of very good abs who weren't drafted at the top of round 1, but there really have been very few really good QBs at all - they are very rare and it is often luck when a team finds one or has the privilege of drafting high in a rare year when an obvious great one is available.

[papazoid]

Actually it was a surprise that Rodgers lasted until that pick.

 

I disagree that there are many examples. To be sure, there are some examples of very good abs who weren't drafted at the top of round 1, but there really have been very few really good QBs at all - they are very rare and it is often luck when a team finds one or has the privilege of drafting high in a rare year when an obvious great one is available.

drew brees, tom brady, tony romo, russell wilson and joe flacco all say hi.

 

 

dalton, kaepernick and foles say don't forget about us.

[Utah John]

The first point is if the Bills kept their 9 pick they would have taken Ebron, not Beckham. Typical Bills, they would have passed on the area of strength and depth in the draft and picked some other position, dreaming they found Gronk v.2. Chandler knows the offense better and Lee Smith is a better blocker, so Ebron wouldn't have played much. Like Ebron hasn't played much in Detroit.

 

Second, drafting a QB this spring is not the only priority. Yes, I acknowledge there aren't any obvious franchise QBs, let alone one at 19. However there will be a lot of good offensive linemen. THAT'S the loss that will hurt us next year.

 

Third, we wouldn't be at 19 if we didn't have Sammy, and had Ebron instead. We'd have four wins, not nine, and we'd be drafting much sooner. We would also be likely to lose Hughes and Dareus who would be fed up with being on a crappy team again.

 

Fourth, even with drafting sooner this spring if they still had their pick, the Bills have a pretty bad track record drafting for value. Even when they have a fairly high pick, they end up with a player who turns out to be as good as most second rounders. The likeliest outcome this spring is they would take a guard who turns out to be pretty good but not dominant. The upgrade for the offense would be marginal.

 

Fifth, I think the way out of the Bills' offensive mess is to spend heavily in free agency, and bring in a new HC and OC who have a clue about running an offense.

 

Overall, I support the Watkins trade. I think he will always be better than the players around him, and will accelerate his development with good QB play.

[Casey D]

A lot of people still criticize the Watkins deal, but we gave up what became the 19th pick.

 

Question: What franchise quarterback is going to be available at the 19th pick? Answer: Nobody that we know of, or they wouldn't be around at #19.

 

Question: How many wins did Sammy Watkins add to our record? I'm going to say 2 or 3. He made a difference.

 

Question: If we kept the 9th pick, who would we have chosen? The tight end from North Carolina. Ebron. How many wins would he add to our record? He hasn't done jack squat in Detroit.

 

 

Question: How do you think Sammy Watkins would do with a quarterback like Manning? Answer: Better than he did in Buffalo. He's awesome.

 

I therefore conclude, and offer for speculation, that we're in fine shape. We wouldn't have gotten a franchise QB next year anyway. We may have one standing on the sidelines. Maybe Marrone just ruined his chances of excelling. Maybe we should see what EJ has to offer.

 

The team can sign a free agent guard with the equivalence of a first round pick, thus compensating us quite easily for the trade of that pick.

 

We're fine.

 

Shred away, my friends.

 

I generally agree. To equate the Watkins trade with somehow having something to do with lacking a quality QB is just specious. You can criticize the trade as giving up too much and you can complain that the Bills have had not had a quality QB in 20 years, but those are largely mutually exclusive and to conflate them is irrational.

[simpleman]

No one really knows what could have been. The past is the past, and the future is the future. But to say there is no one in the draft at 19 that could be a franchise QB is pure speculation. More than one franchise QB has been drafted at 19 or above. It can happen again, we don't know. There have been many posts on this board listing the top rated QBs and SB QBs that were drafted at 19 or above. And at this time the year he was drafted, Geno was considered a consensus top 5 pick. Or Manziel was considered a consensus top 10 pick. Things change after pro days and the Combine. As far as Sammy being responsible for wins, if he wasn''t there another receiver could have stepped up. SJ might still be there and instead "won" a couple of games. We don't know.

Sammy is without a doubt a good receiver so far. The question is, was he worth the price we paid in draft picks. Different people have different opinions on that, but there is no way to know who is right. Without the awesome D this year, I don't see this offense winning more than 3 games max this season. The D was responsible for a majority of the wins this year, in spite of the horrible offense.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

We could have Odell Beckham, who Whaley really liked and was rumored to take if at 9, and it's doubtful we could have traded up for a top QB but the player we get 19 has a lot better chance of being good then who we get at 50.

 

Barbarian, I thought the rumored pick if we stayed at 9 was Ebron, TE? Whaley liked Beckham but the formula they use (which has need in there somewhere) had Ebron 1st?

I'm not so sure about the "lot better chance" thing. For QB, there's a big fall-off between the players picked in the top 10-15 vs those in the later half of the 1st round, then not so big fall off between top of the 2nd and bottom of the 2nd. Something like 40-50% chance of success falling to 20-30%..

 

For the other players I've looked at (DL, OL, LB) the fall off between the bottom of the 1st round and the 2nd round is less. I think Dibs does this sort of analysis also and perhaps better than I do, so maybe he'll weigh in here.

I thought most of us felt that way about the trade and this year's prospects...but I could be out of the loop. Anyway, I agree.

 

EDIT: it's pointless to argue about it, but I don't think there was a snowball's chance in hell that we would have taken OBJ if we hadn't traded.

I don't know about "snowball's chance" but it has been reported that the player we targeted w/out the tradeup was Ebron

[Solomon Grundy]

We could have Odell Beckham, who Whaley really liked and was rumored to take if at 9, and it's doubtful we could have traded up for a top QB but the player we get 19 has a lot better chance of being good then who we get at 50.

ODBJr played 12 games, Sammy played 16. That possibly takes 4 wins off their record.

[Canadian Bills Fan]

We could have Odell Beckham, who Whaley really liked and was rumored to take if at 9, and it's doubtful we could have traded up for a top QB but the player we get 19 has a lot better chance of being good then who we get at 50.

 

 

 

 

Would Odell Beckham have been the same player with our QB's?

 

 

 

CBF

[billsfan1959]

We could have Odell Beckham, who Whaley really liked and was rumored to take if at 9, and it's doubtful we could have traded up for a top QB but the player we get 19 has a lot better chance of being good then who we get at 50.

IMHO, had Buffalo drafted Beckham instead of Watkins, Beckham's numbers would have been, at best, no better than what Watkins produced in this offense...and, I still believe Watkins' long term potential (in a decent offense) is far greater than Beckham's...