thebandit27 Posted December 31, 2014 Posted December 31, 2014 It’s nearing draft season again, and this year I’ve decided to expand my prospect research to whole positions. I’ll be targeting the ones I feel are most important for Buffalo, so I’m starting with QBs. I spent the last week or two grinding through as much college game video as I could find for the prospects that will be available after the 1st round (most of it was on draftbreakdown.com, which has every throw these guys have made from many games dating back to 2012). I’ve compiled both my notes and my overall opinion on the player for everyone’s reference. You are encouraged to discuss, agree, disagree, interject; whatever. This list is limited to the players that I feel are draft-worthy, so if you don’t see a guy’s name on here, it means one of three things: (1) I don’t think he’s worth drafting (i.e. Bo Wallace), (2) there’s no earthly possibility he’ll be there when the Bills pick in round 2 (Mariotta), or (3) I couldn’t find enough video to do a thorough review (Blake Sims). All that said, here’s the group, in alphabetical order by last name. Brandon Bridge – South Alabama - Live arm with lots of velocity; prototype size - Very good athlete with ability to escape the pocket; dual-threat on zone-read - Shows good touch on deep throws, unfortunately his WRs drop everything - Keeps eyes downfield when scrambling - Has compact, bent-arm release that needs to be tweaked, but not re-built - Ball comes out quickly on timing routes - Throws well while on the move - Needs to protect the football better when scrambling - Tries to force the ball into coverage; gets locked on #1 too often - No seriously, this kid has a howitzer, and he looks like he thinks he can make any throw on earth - Struggles in the red zone when things get clogged up—may be more due to a lack of quality targets - Got tunnel-vision in the Miss St game—just way too much on his shoulders against a top 5 team It’s not often that I find myself excited at the prospect of spending a 5th round pick on a kid, but Bridge has got to be on NFL radars. He’s got the physical tools, and he plays like a cowboy out there. I have no idea if he can run an NFL offense, but he’s got the look of a guy that will blossom if he’s surrounded with NFL talent. Shane Carden – East Carolina - Funky sidearm release that causes the ball to float, also results in a lot of tipped passes - Footwork is erratic; seems to always throw from an unstable platform - Takes shots down the field and gets the ball in high - Has good field vision and can spot 2nd and 3rd options - Good ball placement on intermediate routes - Doesn’t sense the pressure in the pocket or climb to safety - Leaves the ball exposed too often when taking a sack - Reads the deep field well; looks to hit big plays routinely - Has enough athleticism to move in the pocket and shed tacklers If the game were solely mental, Carden would probably be an elite prospect. His field vision and decision-making are very good, but the inability to drive the ball on boundary patterns and lack of deep arm strength hurts his overall game. He’s going to need to overhaul is upper and lower body mechanics if he wants to have success at the next level, which I think will drop him to Day 3 in the draft. Garrett Grayson – Colorado State - Willing to take deep shots - Keeps feet active in the pocket - Side-arm delivery - Solid athlete; can avoid pressure - Keeps eyes downfield when scrambling - Doesn’t fully step into throws—keeps stance open, which causes the ball to float - Needs to learn to look off safeties before going to #1 - Good touch on deeper throws—can drop it in the bucket - Very tough; plays through injuries Generally, he’s got some NFL tools, but I don’t see him as more than a long-term backup in the NFL. Probably a 4th or 5th round pick that can be a team’s No. 3 QB immediately and work his way up to a long career as a backup. Brett Hundley - UCLA - Solid drop-back with good explosion off back foot; athletic and a good scrambler - Ball comes out quickly with velocity - Release point is a bit low, leading to batted balls at the LOS - Ball placement is solid on short throws - Gets flustered in the pocket and doesn’t reset his feet reliably - Rushes to escape the pocket when #1 isn’t available - Makes good decisions with the football from the pocket - Accuracy on throws inside the hash marks is inconsistent - Needs to learn to get on the ground when finishing a run or he’ll get killed in the NFL - Must protect the football better in the pocket I expected to be underwhelmed by Hundley, but came away pretty impressed with his passing ability. He’s got an NFL arm, quick release, solid accuracy more often than not, and is very athletic. He needs to work to re-point his release to avoid all the tipped balls, and his pocket presence will need to develop. I could definitely see a team taking a shot at him with a 1st round pick based on natural ability. Sean Mannion – Oregon State - Prototype size and good drop-back; stands tall in the pocket - Great touch-passer; doesn’t often drive the ball with velocity - Shows good decision-making in the pocket - Ball tends to float on downfield passes - Short ball placement is solid - Gets the ball up high, giving WRs a chance to make a play - Footwork gets sloppy when pressured—opens his stance and throws off his back foot too often - Not very mobile, but can square his shoulders and throw decently while on the move - Seems to lack the intermediate passing game in general—every throw is deep or a dump-off/screen He reminds me of another Oregon State alum—Derek Anderson. His touch on deep throws (especially boundary patterns) is excellent, but the lack of an intermediate passing game bothers me, as that’s how most NFL QBs make a living. I also haven’t seen him drive the ball with velocity once. To me, he’s a guy that’s limited in what he can do, but what he can do could win a team a few games each year. Most likely a 5th or 6th round pick that will compete for a backup job. Bryce Petty – Baylor - Makes smart decisions on the zone-read - Gets the ball out quickly - Rushes to get the ball to #1--sometimes to his detriment - Willing to take deep shots often - Keeps his feet active in the pocket when going through progressions - Tough and athletic runner - Solid lower body mechanics - Has a 3/4 style delivery that causes him to lose velocity on the ball, especially on boundary throws - Sometimes seems reluctant to step into the pocket when edge pressure develops - Ball placement is a strength on short and intermediate throws Overall, I think I like the raw material enough to spend a 3rd round pick on him. He'll need some seasoning and a bit of re-working on his delivery (he doesn't have the size of a guy like Rivers to get away with a funky release); could be an NFL starter 2 years down the road.
thebandit27 Posted December 31, 2014 Author Posted December 31, 2014 (edited) Thoughts on Brandon Doughty? I’ve compiled both my notes and my overall opinion on the player for everyone’s reference. You are encouraged to discuss, agree, disagree, interject; whatever. This list is limited to the players that I feel are draft-worthy, so if you don’t see a guy’s name on here, it means one of three things: (1) I don’t think he’s worth drafting (i.e. Bo Wallace), (2) there’s no earthly possibility he’ll be there when the Bills pick in round 2 (Mariotta), or (3) I couldn’t find enough video to do a thorough review (Blake Sims). In this case it's #1 from above. My opinion is that Doughty is not on my draft radar at all. He’s fine if he can throw WR screens and quick-outs all day, but as soon as he needs to make plays down the field, or on NFL-staple routes like digs and deep-outs, he’s in trouble. For one, he doesn’t locate those throws well to my eye. For another, his pocket presence is sorely lacking in my opinion. Take the Illinois game as an example. I saw Illinois in person (against Ohio State)—that’s a defense a good QB could (and should) pick apart (109th in the FBS). I realize that there’s a talent gap between OSU and W. Kentucky, but there were plenty of opportunities to hit plays down the field that Doughty didn’t make. Also the two critical 4th quarter turnovers: the pick-6 on which he both threw into tight coverage and locked onto his #1 (which brought the safety into play who picked it off) and the sack/fumble with 2 open WRs stuck in my mind. I just don’t see a guy that’s going to improve enough to be able to make the plays in the NFL that he isn’t making in college. Edited December 31, 2014 by thebandit27
TC in St. Louis Posted December 31, 2014 Posted December 31, 2014 What about Randolf Scott? You'd do it for Randolf Scott!!
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted December 31, 2014 Posted December 31, 2014 It’s nearing draft season again, and this year I’ve decided to expand my prospect research to whole positions. I’ll be targeting the ones I feel are most important for Buffalo, so I’m starting with QBs. I spent the last week or two grinding through as much college game video as I could find for the prospects that will be available after the 1st round (most of it was on draftbreakdown.com, which has every throw these guys have made from many games dating back to 2012). I’ve compiled both my notes and my overall opinion on the player for everyone’s reference. You are encouraged to discuss, agree, disagree, interject; whatever. This list is limited to the players that I feel are draft-worthy, so if you don’t see a guy’s name on here, it means one of three things: (1) I don’t think he’s worth drafting (i.e. Bo Wallace), (2) there’s no earthly possibility he’ll be there when the Bills pick in round 2 (Mariotta), or (3) I couldn’t find enough video to do a thorough review (Blake Sims). All that said, here’s the group, in alphabetical order by last name. Brandon Bridge – South Alabama - Live arm with lots of velocity; prototype size - Very good athlete with ability to escape the pocket; dual-threat on zone-read - Shows good touch on deep throws, unfortunately his WRs drop everything - Keeps eyes downfield when scrambling - Has compact, bent-arm release that needs to be tweaked, but not re-built - Ball comes out quickly on timing routes - Throws well while on the move - Needs to protect the football better when scrambling - Tries to force the ball into coverage; gets locked on #1 too often - No seriously, this kid has a howitzer, and he looks like he thinks he can make any throw on earth - Struggles in the red zone when things get clogged up—may be more due to a lack of quality targets - Got tunnel-vision in the Miss St game—just way too much on his shoulders against a top 5 team It’s not often that I find myself excited at the prospect of spending a 5th round pick on a kid, but Bridge has got to be on NFL radars. He’s got the physical tools, and he plays like a cowboy out there. I have no idea if he can run an NFL offense, but he’s got the look of a guy that will blossom if he’s surrounded with NFL talent. Shane Carden – East Carolina - Funky sidearm release that causes the ball to float, also results in a lot of tipped passes - Footwork is erratic; seems to always throw from an unstable platform - Takes shots down the field and gets the ball in high - Has good field vision and can spot 2nd and 3rd options - Good ball placement on intermediate routes - Doesn’t sense the pressure in the pocket or climb to safety - Leaves the ball exposed too often when taking a sack - Reads the deep field well; looks to hit big plays routinely - Has enough athleticism to move in the pocket and shed tacklers If the game were solely mental, Carden would probably be an elite prospect. His field vision and decision-making are very good, but the inability to drive the ball on boundary patterns and lack of deep arm strength hurts his overall game. He’s going to need to overhaul is upper and lower body mechanics if he wants to have success at the next level, which I think will drop him to Day 3 in the draft. Garrett Grayson – Colorado State - Willing to take deep shots - Keeps feet active in the pocket - Side-arm delivery - Solid athlete; can avoid pressure - Keeps eyes downfield when scrambling - Doesn’t fully step into throws—keeps stance open, which causes the ball to float - Needs to learn to look off safeties before going to #1 - Good touch on deeper throws—can drop it in the bucket - Very tough; plays through injuries Generally, he’s got some NFL tools, but I don’t see him as more than a long-term backup in the NFL. Probably a 4th or 5th round pick that can be a team’s No. 3 QB immediately and work his way up to a long career as a backup. Brett Hundley - UCLA - Solid drop-back with good explosion off back foot; athletic and a good scrambler - Ball comes out quickly with velocity - Release point is a bit low, leading to batted balls at the LOS - Ball placement is solid on short throws - Gets flustered in the pocket and doesn’t reset his feet reliably - Rushes to escape the pocket when #1 isn’t available - Makes good decisions with the football from the pocket - Accuracy on throws inside the hash marks is inconsistent - Needs to learn to get on the ground when finishing a run or he’ll get killed in the NFL - Must protect the football better in the pocket I expected to be underwhelmed by Hundley, but came away pretty impressed with his passing ability. He’s got an NFL arm, quick release, solid accuracy more often than not, and is very athletic. He needs to work to re-point his release to avoid all the tipped balls, and his pocket presence will need to develop. I could definitely see a team taking a shot at him with a 1st round pick based on natural ability. Sean Mannion – Oregon State - Prototype size and good drop-back; stands tall in the pocket - Great touch-passer; doesn’t often drive the ball with velocity - Shows good decision-making in the pocket - Ball tends to float on downfield passes - Short ball placement is solid - Gets the ball up high, giving WRs a chance to make a play - Footwork gets sloppy when pressured—opens his stance and throws off his back foot too often - Not very mobile, but can square his shoulders and throw decently while on the move - Seems to lack the intermediate passing game in general—every throw is deep or a dump-off/screen He reminds me of another Oregon State alum—Derek Anderson. His touch on deep throws (especially boundary patterns) is excellent, but the lack of an intermediate passing game bothers me, as that’s how most NFL QBs make a living. I also haven’t seen him drive the ball with velocity once. To me, he’s a guy that’s limited in what he can do, but what he can do could win a team a few games each year. Most likely a 5th or 6th round pick that will compete for a backup job. Bryce Petty – Baylor - Makes smart decisions on the zone-read - Gets the ball out quickly - Rushes to get the ball to #1--sometimes to his detriment - Willing to take deep shots often - Keeps his feet active in the pocket when going through progressions - Tough and athletic runner - Solid lower body mechanics - Has a 3/4 style delivery that causes him to lose velocity on the ball, especially on boundary throws - Sometimes seems reluctant to step into the pocket when edge pressure develops - Ball placement is a strength on short and intermediate throws Overall, I think I like the raw material enough to spend a 3rd round pick on him. He'll need some seasoning and a bit of re-working on his delivery (he doesn't have the size of a guy like Rivers to get away with a funky release); could be an NFL starter 2 years down the road. Bandit, how would you compare Hundley to EJ as a prospect coming out? I'm interested because Ive seen and thought of him as a possibility.
voodoo poonani Posted December 31, 2014 Posted December 31, 2014 In this case it's #1 from above. My opinion is that Doughty is not on my draft radar at all. He’s fine if he can throw WR screens and quick-outs all day, but as soon as he needs to make plays down the field, or on NFL-staple routes like digs and deep-outs, he’s in trouble. For one, he doesn’t locate those throws well to my eye. For another, his pocket presence is sorely lacking in my opinion. Take the Illinois game as an example. I saw Illinois in person (against Ohio State)—that’s a defense a good QB could (and should) pick apart (109th in the FBS). I realize that there’s a talent gap between OSU and W. Kentucky, but there were plenty of opportunities to hit plays down the field that Doughty didn’t make. Also the two critical 4th quarter turnovers: the pick-6 on which he both threw into tight coverage and locked onto his #1 (which brought the safety into play who picked it off) and the sack/fumble with 2 open WRs stuck in my mind. I just don’t see a guy that’s going to improve enough to be able to make the plays in the NFL that he isn’t making in college. He seemed to make plenty of big throws in the first half of the Bahamas Bowl game (which is all I've seen of him in truth). Pretty good deep ball accuracy.
Wayne Cubed Posted December 31, 2014 Posted December 31, 2014 (edited) Bandit, how would you compare Hundley to EJ as a prospect coming out? I'm interested because Ive seen and thought of him as a possibility. I've said previously, and I know this is bandits thread, that Hundley in terms of measurables and readiness for the NFL he reminds me of Manuel. Loads of physical tools but hasn't really put them all together. I've also said like bandit I could see him climbing into the first round. I don't like him for the Bills because they already have Manuel but if he could find a team he could sit and learn he could be very good. Biggest problem he needs to work on is pocket presence. It's bad with Hundley. He's quick to take off. EDIT: also great post bandit, appreciate the time you put into it. Edited December 31, 2014 by Wayne Cubed
Mark80 Posted December 31, 2014 Posted December 31, 2014 (edited) Bo Wallace already looking terrible in the Bowl game vs a real D. The guys has never done anything against a good team. I'm glad you left him off your list, he is worthless. I agree, IF Petty is still around when we pick in the third, it's a no brainer. I don't think he's going to be though. I have also started to gain respect back again for Hundley and, depending on interviews and workouts, would consider him for our 2nd round pick. As I said in another thread, looking forward to getting to know Grayson and Carden a little bit better as my knowledge of now only consist of watching live games highlights on sports shows and haven't watched any ECU or Colorado State games. I'll add the Bridge and Doughty to that list as well. I think you need to consider Prescott as well. If he decides to come out I would take a hard look at him. He has developed quite nicely and really reminds me of Cam Newtons progression at Auburn. He tailed off a bit towards the end of the year, but there is something about that kid that I really like. My guess, he comes back for one more year though. Edited December 31, 2014 by Mark80
hondo in seattle Posted December 31, 2014 Posted December 31, 2014 I just want to say: "Wow!" Great research, bandit. Thanks for doing this. Let me ask, if you were Doug Whaley and maybe thinking of drafting a QB in the 3rd through 5th round, who would you choose?
thebandit27 Posted December 31, 2014 Author Posted December 31, 2014 Bandit, how would you compare Hundley to EJ as a prospect coming out? I'm interested because Ive seen and thought of him as a possibility. I think there's some differences and some similarities. Hundley is, IMO, a bit better athlete and puts a bit more zip on the ball. He shares EJ's penchant for missing the intermediate throws. EJ has a better throwing motion (much more repeatable). I think Hundley is probably a bit better prospect than EJ was, but not by any great stretch. He seemed to make plenty of big throws in the first half of the Bahamas Bowl game (which is all I've seen of him in truth). Pretty good deep ball accuracy. He was fine against CMU...I don't remember too many deep throws from that game--I do remember a long TD on which the defender fell on his way to cutting off the route. I just didn't see many "NFL throws". As I said, you're welcome to disagree with my opinion; that's what this thread is intended to do--spark quality discussion. If you get a chance to watch him, and can provide more perspective, I'd welcome it here. I've said previously, and I know this is bandits thread, that Hundley in terms of measurables and readiness for the NFL he reminds me of Manuel. Loads of physical tools but hasn't really put them all together. I've also said like bandit I could see him climbing into the first round. I don't like him for the Bills because they already have Manuel but if he could find a team he could sit and learn he could be very good. Biggest problem he needs to work on is pocket presence. It's bad with Hundley. He's quick to take off. EDIT: also great post bandit, appreciate the time you put into it. This thread is for all of TSW to opine, so feel free. Bo Wallace already looking terrible in the Bowl game vs a real D. The guys has never done anything against a good team. I'm glad you left him off your list, he is worthless. I agree, IF Petty is still around when we pick in the third, it's a no brainer. I don't think he's going to be though. I have also started to gain respect back again for Hundley and, depending on interviews and workouts, would consider him for our 2nd round pick. As I said in another thread, looking forward to getting to know Grayson and Carden a little bit better as my knowledge of now only consist of watching live games highlights on sports shows and haven't watched any ECU or Colorado State games. I'll add the Bridge and Doughty to that list as well. I think you need to consider Prescott as well. If he decides to come out I would take a hard look at him. He has developed quite nicely and really reminds me of Cam Newtons progression at Auburn. He tailed off a bit towards the end of the year, but there is something about that kid that I really like. My guess, he comes back for one more year though. I'm just not a Prescott guy. Great athlete, and I hope he gets drafted by an NFL team, but I think he'll have to be an H-back to be successful...the kind of guy that can handle short-yardage carries, catch some passes out of the backfield, and be used as a passer on trick-option plays. His passing just isn't good enough for me. I just want to say: "Wow!" Great research, bandit. Thanks for doing this. Let me ask, if you were Doug Whaley and maybe thinking of drafting a QB in the 3rd through 5th round, who would you choose? I'd be focused on Petty in the 3rd and/or Bridge in the 5th.
Kirby Jackson Posted December 31, 2014 Posted December 31, 2014 (edited) Great stuff as always Bandit!! I'm a little intrigued by the kid from South Alabama. Also, any thoughts on Kevin Hogan? He seems to have his moments and the physical tools. Edited December 31, 2014 by Kirby Jackson
mannc Posted December 31, 2014 Posted December 31, 2014 (edited) Great post, Bandit. Thank you. I agree with your evaluations of Mannion and Hundley. Earlier this year, I said Mannion is a less athletic Derek Anderson, a late-round pick, if that. I used to think Hundley was awful, but I think he might be worth a second round pick if he's there when the Bills' number comes up. Everyone compares Hundley to EJ and there is some merit to that comparison, but it can be dangerous to do that, as they are different players coming out of very different systems (obviously). Hundley seems a little more athletic and is more willing to tuck it and run. Both have some accuracy issues. Above all, I will be disappointed if the Bills do not take a QB somewhere in the draft this year. How high they take one might depend on how they really feel about EJ. Drafting a QB with one of the first 2 picks would spell trouble for EJ, since I expect the team to bring in a veteran to compete for the job, as well. Edited December 31, 2014 by mannc
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted December 31, 2014 Posted December 31, 2014 I think there's some differences and some similarities. Hundley is, IMO, a bit better athlete and puts a bit more zip on the ball. He shares EJ's penchant for missing the intermediate throws. EJ has a better throwing motion (much more repeatable). I think Hundley is probably a bit better prospect than EJ was, but not by any great stretch. He was fine against CMU...I don't remember too many deep throws from that game--I do remember a long TD on which the defender fell on his way to cutting off the route. I just didn't see many "NFL throws". As I said, you're welcome to disagree with my opinion; that's what this thread is intended to do--spark quality discussion. If you get a chance to watch him, and can provide more perspective, I'd welcome it here. This thread is for all of TSW to opine, so feel free. I'm just not a Prescott guy. Great athlete, and I hope he gets drafted by an NFL team, but I think he'll have to be an H-back to be successful...the kind of guy that can handle short-yardage carries, catch some passes out of the backfield, and be used as a passer on trick-option plays. His passing just isn't good enough for me. I'd be focused on Petty in the 3rd and/or Bridge in the 5th. Thanks! Interesting about the throwing motion. Great stuff.
bobobonators Posted December 31, 2014 Posted December 31, 2014 I kinda like Shane Carden - has a bit of a weird arm delivery but I could see him maybe like a Chad Pennington type QB in the NFL (at best, which would still be pretty decent)
thebandit27 Posted December 31, 2014 Author Posted December 31, 2014 Great stuff as always Bandit!! I'm a little intrigued by the kid from South Alabama. Also, any thoughts on Kevin Hogan? He seems to have his moments and the physical tools. I know it sounds like exaggeration, but I've never seen an arm like Brandon Bridge's; the ball comes out hotter than a firecracker. I liked Hogan coming into the year, but his utter lack of consistency and disappearance during big games (Notre Dame, USC, Utah, Oregon) really knocked me off of his bandwagon. Great post, Bandit. Thank you. I agree with your evaluations of Mannion and Hundley. Earlier this year, I said Mannion is a less athletic Derek Anderson, a late-round pick, if that. I used to think Hundley was awful, but I think he might be worth a second round pick if he's there when the Bills' number comes up. Everyone compares Hundley to EJ and there is some merit to that comparison, but it can be dangerous to do that, as they are different players coming out of very different systems (obviously). Hundley seems a little more athletic and is more willing to tuck it and run. Both have some accuracy issues. Above all, I will be disappointed if the Bills do not take a QB somewhere in the draft this year. How high they take one might depend on how they really feel about EJ. Drafting a QB with one of the first 2 picks would spell trouble for EJ, since I expect the team to bring in a veteran to compete for the job, as well. I think the team needs to approach the season without considering EJ. They know he's an option, but they need to treat the position as though he's a non-contributor. That doesn't necessarily spell doom for EJ; just means that they should consider anything they get from him as found money.
mannc Posted December 31, 2014 Posted December 31, 2014 I think the team needs to approach the season without considering EJ. They know he's an option, but they need to treat the position as though he's a non-contributor. That doesn't necessarily spell doom for EJ; just means that they should consider anything they get from him as found money. Well, Marrone certainly seems to agree with you. Not sure about Whaley. I have a blind optimism that EJ will improve when he is put into a situation where he actually has to compete for the job from the beginning of camp.
YoloinOhio Posted December 31, 2014 Posted December 31, 2014 Bo Wallace in this bowl game vs TCU = draft stock plummeting
mannc Posted December 31, 2014 Posted December 31, 2014 Bo Wallace in this bowl game vs TCU = draft stock plummeting He will be lucky to get a training camp invite at this rate.
QB Bills Posted December 31, 2014 Posted December 31, 2014 Bandit...what is your track record like when it comes to scouting QBs? You seem to be quite knowledgeable. I don't watch college football so I rely on the opinions of others to decide who the Bills should draft... For example, there were some people here screaming for the Bills (or any team) to draft Russell Wilson and that he would be a superstar.
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