K-9 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 As this paper from SAS points out, the use of analytics in football is significantly different from baseball. http://www.sas.com/c...orts-106993.pdf "In professional football, player and game performance analytics tend to be less sophisticated than in baseball or basketball. The complex interactions of a larger number of players on the field, and the difficulty in rating performance of players in each position on each play, make it more difficult to evaluate players or create optimal lineups." Other intersting points: "Another frontier data source for player and team performance is locational and biometric devices. These include GPS devices, radio frequency devices, accelerometers, and other types of biometric sensors... Some NFL (e.g., the Buffalo Bills) and NBA (e.g., San Antonio Spurs) use GPS devices in practices, which is the only time at which they are approved by their respective leagues. The locational devices are most frequently used to assess total activity (miles or kilometers run, steps taken, average speed) undertaken by players in a game or practice." For several years, it’s likely that the analytics from such devices will be simple descriptive reports—what happened in numbers or charts, without any prediction or optimization. Over time, sophisticated teams will develop predictive and associational measures, such as these hypothetical examples: • “This player tends to allow an average of three more points per game on defense when he runs more than 10,000 meters in a game.” • “Players who heart rates exceed 160 beats/minute for over two consecutive minutes tend to run much slower in the last quarter of game... Thanls, Lurker. It'plain as day why these performance metrics would be proprietary. Yet that doesn't stop some from immediately accusing Whaley of bullschitting us. GO BILLS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Thanls, Lurker. It'plain as day why these performance metrics would be proprietary. Yet that doesn't stop some from immediately accusing Whaley of bullschitting us. GO BILLS! ^ what he said. So funny that people think Whaley is an idiot becase he didn't give an explanation. Clearly anyone that rises to the position of NFL GM (after being groomed in Pitts, none the less), is dumber than TBD. Jeenyus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 ^ what he said. So funny that people think Whaley is an idiot becase he didn't give an explanation. Clearly anyone that rises to the position of NFL GM (after being groomed in Pitts, none the less), is dumber than TBD. Jeenyus! The Bills NEED to tell us everything about how they make decisions. After all, we OWN them. Oh, wait. Never mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The Bills NEED to tell us everything about how they make decisions. After all, we OWN them. Well, not yet, but NEXT time! Assuming I invent the next big thing, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackInDaDay Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 just heard the guys in 'analytics' have decided to remove at least 1 crapper from all the men's rooms at OBD, and install 2 urinals for each they remove. their studies have shown that the volume of kool-aid being swallowed at headquarters warrants the change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 The Bills NEED to tell us everything about how they make decisions. After all, we OWN them. Oh, wait. Never mind. strawman. if the bills had a depodesta character revolutionizing the management of the game, the other teams would know. there'd be pictures in every nfl c suite in the league. the press would have it too. as it is, no one cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 strawman. if the bills had a depodesta character revolutionizing the management of the game, the other teams would know. there'd be pictures in every nfl c suite in the league. the press would have it too. as it is, no one cares "Straw man" has been getting used a lot on this message board. But most of the time I believe it is being misused. You are confusing baseball analytics with football analytics, I fear. I find it doubtful analytics will ever be a revolutionary presence in the NFL---perhaps I'm wrong. But that isn't to say they can, and might be, used in a way that helps the human evaluators on the club, make better decisions. I'm a long time research guy, who has advised decision makers. Some lean too heavily on the research findings. Others ignore them completely, to their detriment. The most successful decision makers know how to use the research, without following it blindly. It may give them ideas, raise questions, confirm hunches, etc. And each researcher has their own way of analyzing, and decimating the data. Football analytics are a lot like that, I believe. And why would any team want to discuss their inner decision-making process. I'm sure it would be hard to simply explain to reporters, if they even tried. The mess the reporters would make of it, and the micro analysis they would offer, would be truly amusing, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jauronimo Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I suspect "I don't know what the analytics department does" would've been a faster and less accusatory way to find out Theres something about the exercise of finding out just how baseless his views are that he seems to enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigK14094 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Whaley is also the guy who traded Kelvin Sheppard for Jerry Hughes. Sometimes you strike out, and sometimes you hit a home run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 . . . You have to consider the hand that you are playing with when making decisions like this. The Bills team this year had an outstanding defense, very good special teams and an anemic offense. I completely understand why they wouldn't want to go for it on 4th and 1 in many situations - they were playing to their team strengths. That's not obvious to me. You can at least make an entirely rational argument that despite having a bad offense, you should take risks on 4th and 1 if your defense is so good that failure is not likely to result in points for your opponent. Especially if your offense is in a situation where one more first down puts you within FG range for a kicker as reliable as Carpenter has been. Because you can make rational arguments to support either decision, it would be interesting to see what the analytics department would recommend based on actual in-game data (say for teams with a similar overall defensive and offensive ranking). My sense is that NFL coaches in general are far too conservative, but that's a hunch based on no real data analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 (edited) "Straw man" has been getting used a lot on this message board. But most of the time I believe it is being misused. You are confusing baseball analytics with football analytics, I fear. I find it doubtful analytics will ever be a revolutionary presence in the NFL---perhaps I'm wrong. But that isn't to say they can, and might be, used in a way that helps the human evaluators on the club, make better decisions. I'm a long time research guy, who has advised decision makers. Some lean too heavily on the research findings. Others ignore them completely, to their detriment. The most successful decision makers know how to use the research, without following it blindly. It may give them ideas, raise questions, confirm hunches, etc. And each researcher has their own way of analyzing, and decimating the data. Football analytics are a lot like that, I believe. And why would any team want to discuss their inner decision-making process. I'm sure it would be hard to simply explain to reporters, if they even tried. The mess the reporters would make of it, and the micro analysis they would offer, would be truly amusing, though. bigger issues to discuss but your comment that "the bills need to tell us about how they make decisions" is a textbook straw man. would make a fine example for an intro logic class:The Straw Man fallacy is committed when a person simply ignores a person's actual position and substitutes a distorted, exaggerated or misrepresented version of that position. Edited January 1, 2015 by birdog1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 bigger issues to discuss but your comment that "the bills need to tell us about how they make decisions" is a textbook straw man. would make a fine example for an intro logic class: The Straw Man fallacy is committed when a person simply ignores a person's actual position and substitutes a distorted, exaggerated or misrepresented version of that position. I KNOW what it means. I was a logic major in undergrad. But I still don't think that fits the description in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 (edited) I KNOW what it means. I was a logic major in undergrad. But I still don't think that fits the description in this case. iwell know what it means as well. i said nothing about the bills owing fans an explanation about how they make decisions. you made a fallacious, ridiculous argument that was purposefully indefensible and then argued against it. Edited January 1, 2015 by birdog1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justnzane Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 lol at calling the dean out his knowledge of logic. Dean, I'll disagree with the assessment regarding the use of analytics coming close to that of baseball. The use of different statistics can be used to determine a player's breaking point as far as wear and tear. how often he should be subbed out, when to go for it on 4th, where is a team weakest against the runs (holes, play type), and the speed of a QB's reads the field pre-snap and post-snap. There is enough software out there to test out the hypotheses and find trends. Moneyball is moving to football slowly but surely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 lol at calling the dean out his knowledge of logic. Dean, I'll disagree with the assessment regarding the use of analytics coming close to that of baseball. The use of different statistics can be used to determine a player's breaking point as far as wear and tear. how often he should be subbed out, when to go for it on 4th, where is a team weakest against the runs (holes, play type), and the speed of a QB's reads the field pre-snap and post-snap. There is enough software out there to test out the hypotheses and find trends. Moneyball is moving to football slowly but surely. Perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 lol at calling the dean out his knowledge of logic. Dean, I'll disagree with the assessment regarding the use of analytics coming close to that of baseball. The use of different statistics can be used to determine a player's breaking point as far as wear and tear. how often he should be subbed out, when to go for it on 4th, where is a team weakest against the runs (holes, play type), and the speed of a QB's reads the field pre-snap and post-snap. There is enough software out there to test out the hypotheses and find trends. Moneyball is moving to football slowly but surely. perhaps he's better versed at the appeal to authority you just pulled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 iwell know what it means as well. i said nothing about the bills owing fans an explanation about how they make decisions. you made a fallacious, ridiculous argument that was purposefully indefensible and then argued against it. Perhaps I misinterpreted your position, or attributed posts by others to you (I've done it before, I'll likely to it again). If so, I apologize. But I assure you, I wasn't attempting to make what you said something altogether different. I thought you were saying the Bills answer to the analytics question was subpar because: They should have answered that question and told the reporters how their analytics worked, or did not. And/or The Bills are clueless on what their analytics contribute based on their non-answer. Truthfully, if it had been me who was asked the question, I would have said something like "That's none of your fuc#ing business." But then again, I can be a bit crass when someone asks me a stupid question. If you care to, please elucidate us on your actual position on how the question was answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 Perhaps I misinterpreted your position, or attributed posts by others to you (I've done it before, I'll likely to it again). If so, I apologize. But I assure you, I wasn't attempting to make what you said something altogether different. I thought you were saying the Bills answer to the analytics question was subpar because: They should have answered that question and told the reporters how their analytics worked, or did not. And/or The Bills are clueless on what their analytics contribute based on their non-answer. Truthfully, if it had been me who was asked the question, I would have said something like "That's none of your fuc#ing business." But then again, I can be a bit crass when someone asks me a stupid question. If you care to, please elucidate us on your actual position on how the question was answered. i think the answer to the question gave insight into the sophistication of the analytics dept. the quality of the response is inconsequential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dean Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 i think the answer to the question gave insight into the sophistication of the analytics dept. the quality of the response is inconsequential. But nobody here knows the sophistication of the Bills analytics dept. Do they? It seems to be speculation, based mostly on the non-answer to the question at the presser. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdog1960 Posted January 1, 2015 Author Share Posted January 1, 2015 But nobody here knows the sophistication of the Bills analytics dept. Do they? It seems to be speculation, based mostly on the non-answer to the question at the presser. No? we know these things: bill belichik read the berkley study on 4th down. he goes on 4th down more often than the bills. the bills paid a huge price for a receiver that appears to have several similar less costly peers. taking into account injury risks for receivers and general unpredictability it's hard to imagine a statistically based algorithm that favors the watkins trade. many other teams valued manuel significantly less than the bills. reportedly, many use analytics. i think the odds that the bills did the end run and the others followed the statistical analysis is much more likely than the converse. given more time, i can produce more examples. lets see your counter examples that point toward a successful analytical methodology from the bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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