Did Whaley Panic?

[CodeMonkey]

I never saw it that way. Yes, they went all in but not to "save" their jobs. Whaley did it because he thought Watkins made the Bills better. Too bad none of our QBs or O-line were worth a damn.

That WR class was very deep. Any one of the top 3, and probably even more than that, would have made the Bills better. But no WR can do a lot without a QB that can get him the ball. The point being Whaley could have gotten a very good WR that would have helped the team without giving up an additional first round pick. In my opinion he grossly overpaid and that trade was a big mistake by Whaley.

Edited December 25, 2014 by CodeMonkey

[YoloinOhio]

I do not think Whaley panicked as such. Farmer just out negotiated Whaley and Whaley overpaid.

 

I think Whaley could have gotten Sammy for less given the market set the previous year when Miami traded less to move up more slots. I will not ask Whaley to negotiate my next car purchase.

 

Having said the above, I still like Sammy and having him on the team. I cannot hold what Whaley did against Sammy.

the value of the pick changes each year based on the players available. Cleveland was open about the fact they were set on taking Watkins and would only give up the pick for a very steep price. There were other teams interested in the pick. The players available in 2014 at the top were very different in level than 2013. A OT from central Michigan went 1st overall. It was a weak draft in 2013.

[Dibs]

Don Banks at si.com has an article regarding the 2015 coaching carousel and suggests that some think Whaley is vulnerable because of....the cost of moving up for Watkins with Beckham available.....

this is the false choice that so many whaley apologists want to make. this argument only points out how bad his judgement is. it appears that he not only got less than the best receiver available (according to chip kelly on nfl.com) but he also spent a first round draft choice in the process. there should be consequences to his career with the bills.

 

This is a reductive argument(and a sad indictment on professional sports analysts IMO).

 

One cannot logically judge a draft pick based upon how well the other later draftees of that position performed(unless all were similarly rated prior to the draft). If a player plays above expectations, it should not influence the assessments of those drafted above them. This would be like saying that all of the teams who drafted LBs ahead of Kiko in 2013 made mistakes......or those who drafted QBs ahead of Brady made mistakes.....etc, etc, etc.

 

If Watkins turns into a first class player, then his selection becomes an astute one. As he was resoundingly considered to be at least a cut above his nearest WR draftee rival, it becomes totally irrelevant if said rivals also become first class players. This should not reflect badly on the Bills' GM at all. Quite the contrary. It would show that the Bills targeted and obtained a player that they correctly felt would become a star......whereas the GMs who selected the other star WRs essentially got lucky(in that the players panned out well above expectations).

[Boolay]

 

 

what? How did he panic? Let's find out if he lost after a few years.

 

I can just picture the same exact topic for Beckham with these QBs that we have.

 

"Did Whaley panic and grab a Beckham because Evans was gone? Why don't we ever trade up? Watkins is doing amazing on the Giants"

 

I know Bills fans have a habit of running their players out of town but geez. Give them a shot/chance before calling them a bust. These are less than ideal QB situations.

 

If you didn't mean the Watkins/1st over Beckham deal, then I apologize for my assumption.

k

 

Oh yes the kick it down the road argument. Two years in a row Whaley grossly overpaid in the first round. Along with his "All In" on EJ this year. Well Doug you busted out, please help yourself to a complimentary buffet on the way out the door.

[3rdand12]

 

This is a reductive argument(and a sad indictment on professional sports analysts IMO).

 

One cannot logically judge a draft pick based upon how well the other later draftees of that position performed(unless all were similarly rated prior to the draft). If a player plays above expectations, it should not influence the assessments of those drafted above them. This would be like saying that all of the teams who drafted LBs ahead of Kiko in 2013 made mistakes......or those who drafted QBs ahead of Brady made mistakes.....etc, etc, etc.

 

If Watkins turns into a first class player, then his selection becomes an astute one. As he was resoundingly considered to be at least a cut above his nearest WR draftee rival, it becomes totally irrelevant if said rivals also become first class players. This should not reflect badly on the Bills' GM at all. Quite the contrary. It would show that the Bills targeted and obtained a player that they correctly felt would become a star......whereas the GMs who selected the other star WRs essentially got lucky(in that the players panned out well above expectations).

Good post Dibs : )

[billsfan714]

It's funny how people rip the Bills for being too conservative but then rip them for being aggressive.

 

Not this. We rip our coaches for being too conservative...see Jauron/Marrone. We rip the FO for being reckless and making stupid trades see trading up for JP Losman, John McCargo, trading Lynch for Hairston/Carder, trading All-Pro Peters for Wood, and debatably giving up too much for WR Watkins in a deep WR draft.

 

The McGahee trade didnt net much, Lee Evans was traded for Ron Brooks and I know you will point out the Hughes trade--yes that was a good trade but if we dont re-sign him it wont mean a lot in the long run.

Edited December 26, 2014 by billsfan714

[birdog1960]

I can respect this but another way to look at it is Oakland got fleeced entirely by Miami, given the precedents set in prior years; the market corrected itself. You may not want Whaley with you when you buy that car, but I'll bet you'd LOVE to buy it from the Raiders, regardless.

 

GO BILLS!!!

why do people insist on comparisons to bad teams? you want to be the best, you take on the best and prove you're better at gm or anywhere. whaley hasn't proven that and is quite unlikely to.

[Solomon Grundy]

I think he panicked more with Cujo than with Sammy. They forced that pick because the plan going into the draft was to upgrade the OL, the guy was badly beaten all pre-season. IIRC, it wasn't a very good draft for offensive fat guys.

 

Maybe, just maybe the offensive fat guys are just poorly coached. I still can't understand that after 15 wks a NFL player still can't recognize and pick up a line stunt.

[birdog1960]

This is a reductive argument(and a sad indictment on professional sports analysts IMO).

 

One cannot logically judge a draft pick based upon how well the other later draftees of that position performed(unless all were similarly rated prior to the draft). If a player plays above expectations, it should not influence the assessments of those drafted above them. This would be like saying that all of the teams who drafted LBs ahead of Kiko in 2013 made mistakes......or those who drafted QBs ahead of Brady made mistakes.....etc, etc, etc.

 

If Watkins turns into a first class player, then his selection becomes an astute one. As he was resoundingly considered to be at least a cut above his nearest WR draftee rival, it becomes totally irrelevant if said rivals also become first class players. This should not reflect badly on the Bills' GM at all. Quite the contrary. It would show that the Bills targeted and obtained a player that they correctly felt would become a star......whereas the GMs who selected the other star WRs essentially got lucky(in that the players panned out well above expectations).

except we are not comparing long shots to consensus picks in this receiver class. the consensus was that they were all good and so many being drafted in the first round proves that to be the case. they were all expected to be good. everyone drafted in the first round is expected to be good whether or not they actually turn out that way.

 

now the converse, picking someone early who is not a consensus pick is equally risky. the bills have historically called out a few of these names with little to justify them later.

 

and then there's the late round reaches. little risk, big possible reward. but rare. and they've done all right here til it's time to re sign. then everyone here quickly agrees that they're not really worth top dollar and the gm obligingly agrees.

 

whaley is running the same old bills draft show with similar results. don't see why any are eager to defend him.

Edited December 26, 2014 by birdog1960

[negativo]

Yes. Panicked.

[K-9]

except we are not comparing long shots to consensus picks in this receiver class. the consensus was that they were all good and so many being drafted in the first round proves that to be the case. they were all expected to be good. everyone drafted in the first round is expected to be good whether or not they actually turn out that way.

 

now the converse, picking someone early who is not a consensus pick is equally risky. the bills have historically called out a few of these names with little to justify them later.

 

and then there's the late round reaches. little risk, big possible reward. but rare. and they've done all right here til it's time to re sign. then everyone here quickly agrees that they're not really worth top dollar and the gm obligingly agrees.

 

whaley is running the same old bills draft show with similar results. don't see why any are eager to defend him.

 

Yes, the consensus was this was a deep WR class. The consensus also was that Sammy Watkins was head and shoulders above anybody else in the draft, regardless of position, with the exception of Clowney. He was one of the highest rated receivers in history. The others, not so much.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[SBUffalo]

I think he panicked more with Cujo than with Sammy. They forced that pick because the plan going into the draft was to upgrade the OL, the guy was badly beaten all pre-season. IIRC, it wasn't a very good draft for offensive fat guys.

 

Zach Martin and Joel Bitonio are both looking like elite guards.

[K-9]

Zach Martin and Joel Bitonio are both looking like elite guards.

 

That they are. Solid players all the way around.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

Zach Martin and Joel Bitonio are both looking like elite guards.

i heard (not sure if true) that the Bills really liked Bitonio and thought he would still be there when they picked in the 2nd, but he was gone. Imagine if he had been there! We had no chance at Martin unless we took him 9th. I think he is good but that's high. Edited December 26, 2014 by YoloinOhio

[Dibs]

except we are not comparing long shots to consensus picks in this receiver class. the consensus was that they were all good and so many being drafted in the first round proves that to be the case. they were all expected to be good. everyone drafted in the first round is expected to be good whether or not they actually turn out that way.

 

......

 

Expected by the fans and media.....not by reality though. The reality is that more than half of 1st round selections don't become good players......let alone play as good players as rookies.....let alone become great players.

 

It comes down to percentages. In every draft there is usually between 3 and 6 elite prospects. These guys have not only a much higher chance of becoming good NFL starters but a much higher chance of becoming great NFL players than the rest of the draft prospects. When one of the non elite prospects becomes a great NFL player it does not relate in any way to the selections of the elite prospects.

 

Using some invented numbers.....

If SW was thought to have an 90% chance of becoming a good player and a 75% chance of becoming great.....and the other WRs were considered to have a 50% chance of becoming good with a 25% of greatness......you would pick SW every time. ....and if one or more of the other WRs hit their percentages and became good or great.....well that is just good luck for the teams drafting them. It isn't bad drafting by the team who selects SW.....particularly if he indeed becomes great himself.

Edited December 26, 2014 by Dibs

[Thurmal34]

I can't imagine a scenario where moving up to get Watkins was a panic move. Whaley's mistake, IMO, was in the PR department, when he said he expected Watkins to be the player to get the Bills to the playoffs.

[SBUffalo]

I can't imagine a scenario where moving up to get Watkins was a panic move. Whaley's mistake, IMO, was in the PR department, when he said he expected Watkins to be the player to get the Bills to the playoffs.

 

There's a solid chance it was a bit of panic. He wanted to make a splash to show he has "it" as a GM.

[RyanC883]

Don Banks at si.com has an article regarding the 2015 coaching carousel and suggests that some think Whaley is vulnerable because of overdrafting Manuel and the cost of moving up for Watkins with Beckham available. Interesting that Whaley is being blamed for EJ, I still have no idea whether that is fair or not.

 

Whaley will be back next year. Marrone, not so sure. Even radio stations in other cities are wondering how a team like the Bills, Browns, etc. could sit around if Harbaugh became available.

[Thurmal34]

There's a solid chance it was a bit of panic. He wanted to make a splash to show he has "it" as a GM.

 

You know why Whaley made the trade?

 

Lemme guess, sources deep within?

 

*edit* Re-read this, realized it comes off confrontational. Not my intent. Just pointing out that you have no idea what Whaley wanted.

Edited December 26, 2014 by Thurmal34

[SBUffalo]

 

 

You know why Whaley made the trade?

 

Lemme guess, sources deep within?

 

*edit* Re-read this, realized it comes off confrontational. Not my intent. Just pointing out that you have no idea what Whaley wanted.

 

Why else do you give up two firsts to move up five (was it four?) slots for a WR?