YoloinOhio Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 Or lots of QBs are struggling.... @mikerodak: Kyle Orton’s QBR this weekend was better than Brady, Manning, Brees, and Luck: http://t.co/OQSwqbZgki
PolishDave Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 Or lots of QBs are struggling.... @mikerodak: Kyle Orton's QBR this weekend was better than Brady, Manning, Brees, and Luck: http://t.co/OQSwqbZgki Awesome... Just imagine how proud Orton is to be mentioned in the same sentence as those guys.... He will frame that article and hang it on his office wall at home.
boyst Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 Mike Rodent has proven that a HS Yearbook editor can go a long way.
QCity Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 QBR is just a terrible metric, it's a shame that ESPN tries to shove it in everyone's face (because they created it of course). Here's example #95329572354 why it's terrible -- taken from this season: Earlier this year Jake Locker lost to Cleveland. He went 8/11 for 79 yards and 1 TD and 0 INT. He averaged 7.2 YPA. His QBR was 99.2 Earlier this year Roethlisberger beat Indy. He went 40/49 for 522 yards and 6 TD and 0 INT. He averaged 10.7 YPA. His QBR was 99.0 One performance is decent (in mop-up time), the other is one of the greatest passing games in the history of the NFL.
YoloinOhio Posted December 23, 2014 Author Posted December 23, 2014 QBR is just a terrible metric, it's a shame that ESPN tries to shove it in everyone's face (because they created it of course). Here's example #95329572354 why it's terrible -- taken from this season: Earlier this year Jake Locker lost to Cleveland. He went 8/11 for 79 yards and 1 TD and 0 INT. He averaged 7.2 YPA. His QBR was 99.2 Earlier this year Roethlisberger beat Indy. He went 40/49 for 522 yards and 6 TD and 0 INT. He averaged 10.7 YPA. His QBR was 99.0 One performance is decent (in mop-up time), the other is one of the greatest passing games in the history of the NFL. lol!
zonabb Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 (edited) QBR is junk. I just read the ESPN explanation and although it makes somewhat sense, my guess is it has some major data quality issues. It uses something called a Clutch Index and the info provided uses phrases such as "Maximum clutch indices are about 3.0, and minimum indices are about 0.3." About? That's not very precise. Also, their conclusion states "What underlies QBR is an understanding of how football works and a lot of detailed situational data. What it yields are results that should reflect that." Should? Stats geeks will tell you they are never certain. QBR is certainly questionable measure if, as itr states, puts weight on plays the contribute to winning yet Locker lost with a QBR higher than a winning QBR and nearly a perfect 100. The goal of a description summary measure (an index as this is) is actually that they should be easy to understand (this is). But I'll come back to data quality... specifically two keys to data quality: validity and accuracy. Is this measure valid, that is does it measure what it is supposed to? The example above leaves you wondering. Is it accurate, is there agreement between the measure and the true value? When it's supposed to measure the contributions the QB makes to winning, not so much. Actually, no matter what measure you try to develop, it'll have shortcomings. It's like a stock index. It might give you a positive value even when underlying stocks in the index are garbage. The bottomline is, ESPN wanted to make inroads into analystics. What better way than to create something that measures the most analyzed position in the most popular league. So it went something like this: ESPN Bigwig: We need to get into analytics. Program Director: Why? ESPN Bigwig: Everyone else is going it? Program Director: How? ESPN Bigwig: Find some data cruncher to make up some measurement of QB performance. Program Director: They have that, it’s a rating system, with a high possible score of 158.3. ESPN Bigwig: Well, that’s an odd number. Find someone to create a rating with a top score of 100. Program Director: What will it measure? ESPN Bigwig: Who cares, we’re not after a prize in economics or math, we talking football and we want a piece of this game and it doesn’t even have to be accurate, it just has to be ours. Very good read on the worth of QBR http://www.coldhardf...r-tv-stat/7978/ Edited December 23, 2014 by zonabb
dave mcbride Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 (edited) QBR is just a terrible metric, it's a shame that ESPN tries to shove it in everyone's face (because they created it of course). Here's example #95329572354 why it's terrible -- taken from this season: Earlier this year Jake Locker lost to Cleveland. He went 8/11 for 79 yards and 1 TD and 0 INT. He averaged 7.2 YPA. His QBR was 99.2 Earlier this year Roethlisberger beat Indy. He went 40/49 for 522 yards and 6 TD and 0 INT. He averaged 10.7 YPA. His QBR was 99.0 One performance is decent (in mop-up time), the other is one of the greatest passing games in the history of the NFL. ?? - Locker's rating is 122.92 and Roethlisberger's is 150.6. http://www.primecomputing.com/ EDIT - whoops - you appear to be talking about ESPN's rating. My bad. Edited December 23, 2014 by dave mcbride
DriveFor1Outta5 Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 In defense of the QBR metric all of those future hall of fame QB's played quite poorly this week. Hence Orton having a better QBR than those guys. He was a beast during garbage time this week.
....lybob Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 Kyle Orton's last four games were worse than EJ Manuel's last four games.
H2o Posted December 23, 2014 Posted December 23, 2014 QBR is just a terrible metric, it's a shame that ESPN tries to shove it in everyone's face (because they created it of course). Here's example #95329572354 why it's terrible -- taken from this season: Earlier this year Jake Locker lost to Cleveland. He went 8/11 for 79 yards and 1 TD and 0 INT. He averaged 7.2 YPA. His QBR was 99.2 Earlier this year Roethlisberger beat Indy. He went 40/49 for 522 yards and 6 TD and 0 INT. He averaged 10.7 YPA. His QBR was 99.0 One performance is decent (in mop-up time), the other is one of the greatest passing games in the history of the NFL. BOOM!
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