stevestojan Posted December 19, 2014 Posted December 19, 2014 I don't think I'm alone here saying that I'm low on the totem pole when it comes to true Bills knowledge. This topic is likely discussed in pieces throughout many threads but I thought it would be nice for those of us who are die hard fans but don't know the details of contracts, etc to have one of the experts give us a run down on status of defense next year. I am one of the biggest pessimists but I really think this is a super bowl caliber defense. The pessimist in me says "great, we'll pick up some great O-Linemen in the offseason and half the defense will be gone." So, gurus, can I (and hopefully others) get a rundown of FA status, possible trade status, anything you think will happen, etc for next year. ...ground up, and in the freezer....
Buffalo_Stampede Posted December 20, 2014 Posted December 20, 2014 (edited) The D could lose Searcy, Spikes and Hughes. Searcy is replaceable. Spikes has already been replaced by Brown, plus Alonso back next year. The big one is Hughes. I think he gets signed to something like 4 years $36 million. Mostly guaranteed. The D will be even better in 2015 which is scary. It's why we need a QB After 2015 it starts to get interesting. Gilmore, Bradham and Dareus need deals. Kyle Williams a year older. Time to strike is 2015. Edited December 20, 2014 by TheTruthHurts
Not at the table Karlos Posted December 20, 2014 Posted December 20, 2014 The D could lose Searcy, Spikes and Hughes. Searcy is replaceable. Spikes has already been replaced by Brown, plus Alonso back next year. The big one is Hughes. I think he gets signed to something like 4 years $36 million. Mostly guaranteed. The D will be even better in 2015 which is scary. It's why we need a QB After 2015 it starts to get interesting. Gilmore, Bradham and Dareus need deals. Kyle Williams a year older. Time to strike is 2015. does Gilmore have an option for a 5th year like dareus?
boyst Posted December 20, 2014 Posted December 20, 2014 First, I am glad you're posting more often. Second, I'll start with just the free agents and my take on their value. The big name everyone here is talking about is Jerry Hughes. I guess he deserves it, Jerry Hughes has been one of the best defensive ends on this team in 20 years. The pessimist would remind everyone of the names Jim Jeffcoat, Chris Kelsay, and Chidi Ahanotu, among others. Hughes has been able to set an edge on the rush rather well given his lighter size and aggressive style rush. This is one of the biggest reasons that Hughes will be coveted this offseason. On the bright side is Cliff Avril. I was interested in kicking his tires if we lost Hughes. We will not be able to do that because he signed a 4 year extension for $28. That is just over $7.1mm/year. That's about $1mm less then i think he could have earned. We already know Greg Hardy won't make nearly as much as he already has and we already know that he will not be returning to Carolina (long shot he does). With JPP falling apart, Redding being long in the tooth, Raji and Clayborn are the only two that will draw large interest against both Hughes and Hardy. Player Age 2014 Contract $ Greg Hardy 26 $13.1mm Cliff Avril 28 $9.25mm JPP 25 $4.6mm Cory Redding 34 $4.4mm BJ Raji 28 $4mm Jerry Hughes 26 $4mm Adrian Clayborn 26 $2.6mm Fili Moala 29 $1.6mm Alex Carrington 27 $1.5mm Jarvis Jenkins 26 $1.5mm Anthony Spencer 30 $1.3mm Looking at the rest of the FA's this year, 10 others now that Avril is signed, we see a lot of youth and a lot of value in some of those younger guys. But, we see a wide open lane for Hughes to become one of the highest paid DE's in the league. Watt - $16.7mm MWilliams - $16mm Quinn - $14.3mm Hardy - $13.1mm CJohnson - $12.7mm Long - $12mm C. Campbell - $11mm Ware - $10mm Casey - $9mm Docket - $8.8mm Carolina spent just under $26mm on the Hardy/Johnson duo for 2014 and Hardy won't even see the field. That netted them 6.5 sacks. All of that value, all of those top paid players come out as follows: Watt - 16.5 sacks MWilliams - 13 sacks Quinn - 10.5 sacks Hardy - 0.0 ack acks Johnson - 6.5 sacks Long - 1 sack Campbell - 7.0 sacks Ware - 10 sacks Casey - 5 sacks Docket - 0.0 ack acks Just off of these numbers alone $10mm a year seems to be at the lower end. He's going to get every bit of that. I think if Buffalo offered him $10mm/year for 6 years with a $5mm bonus he'd sign it tomorrow. The bottom line is that the way our defense is playing he is the perfect fit for our team. Our LB's clean up what he doesn't get to and he keeps the runner inside. D'Norris Searcy This is a guy that championship teams covet. This is the guy that wins you the Super Bowl on that clutch INT. He won't let the same play happen twice, he won't make the same mistake twice and he learns. When we get to the playoffs one day and even the Super Bowl if Searcy is on our team he is going to make a difference when it matters most. It is because he is always getting to the ball, always hustling and plays his heart out. It would be a mistake not to resign this guy. His value should be less then $3.5mm for a 2 to 3 year term. Brandon Spikes For the first time in 10 years we have a premier D that can stop the run. That is because we have Brown and Bradham. But, we have Spikes, too. That means on goal line and package situations we can put this run stuffer in. Good teams stop the run. The best teams stop the run when the other team is going to run it regardless of how many you put in the box. We do that. Brandon Spikes is a vested player who adds attitude to this team and he likes being here. If Bradham, Brown or Alonso get hurt Spikes will fill in perfectly fine. He has actually not been blown up in pass protection, either! Bradon Spikes should remain a Bill, IMO. It would be best for him and us, both. He is here for 1 year $3.25 now. I think if we offer him $3mm/4 years with a relatively healthy bonus he stays. I think he is worth it. Jairus Wynn Yes, he is injured now but the guy was playing at a high level before injury. Enough so that I thought if forced to rely upon him and the others at DE for 2016 we would not be that bad off. A 5 year vet, he is now vested and can breath a sigh of relief. He's set for life now. Signed for 2014 on a $635k contract he might be wanting a little more. He'd probably trade that for years. Two years @$800k/year and I tell this 28 year old journeymen that he's welcome back. Corbin Bryant A Restricted Free Agent it is a bit different for him. But, he will get offered more then the just under the $500,000 he earned in 2014. If we offer this guy a 3 year and come out paying him less then $1.2mm over the course of that then I would be very happy. At 26 years old he is a bit younger then Wynn and could be part of any backup plan for Dareus. Larry Dean He is a special teams contributor and I think he can be retained. The third part can come later when I have time. Anything specific you'd like to ask with how we can line up if we lose any of those in any combination or what?
dave mcbride Posted December 20, 2014 Posted December 20, 2014 First, I am glad you're posting more often. Second, I'll start with just the free agents and my take on their value. The big name everyone here is talking about is Jerry Hughes. I guess he deserves it, Jerry Hughes has been one of the best defensive ends on this team in 20 years. The pessimist would remind everyone of the names Jim Jeffcoat, Chris Kelsay, and Chidi Ahanotu, among others. Hughes has been able to set an edge on the rush rather well given his lighter size and aggressive style rush. This is one of the biggest reasons that Hughes will be coveted this offseason. On the bright side is Cliff Avril. I was interested in kicking his tires if we lost Hughes. We will not be able to do that because he signed a 4 year extension for $28. That is just over $7.1mm/year. That's about $1mm less then i think he could have earned. We already know Greg Hardy won't make nearly as much as he already has and we already know that he will not be returning to Carolina (long shot he does). With JPP falling apart, Redding being long in the tooth, Raji and Clayborn are the only two that will draw large interest against both Hughes and Hardy. Player Age 2014 Contract $ Greg Hardy 26 $13.1mm Cliff Avril 28 $9.25mm JPP 25 $4.6mm Cory Redding 34 $4.4mm BJ Raji 28 $4mm Jerry Hughes 26 $4mm Adrian Clayborn 26 $2.6mm Fili Moala 29 $1.6mm Alex Carrington 27 $1.5mm Jarvis Jenkins 26 $1.5mm Anthony Spencer 30 $1.3mm Looking at the rest of the FA's this year, 10 others now that Avril is signed, we see a lot of youth and a lot of value in some of those younger guys. But, we see a wide open lane for Hughes to become one of the highest paid DE's in the league. Watt - $16.7mm MWilliams - $16mm Quinn - $14.3mm Hardy - $13.1mm CJohnson - $12.7mm Long - $12mm C. Campbell - $11mm Ware - $10mm Casey - $9mm Docket - $8.8mm Carolina spent just under $26mm on the Hardy/Johnson duo for 2014 and Hardy won't even see the field. That netted them 6.5 sacks. All of that value, all of those top paid players come out as follows: Watt - 16.5 sacks MWilliams - 13 sacks Quinn - 10.5 sacks Hardy - 0.0 ack acks Johnson - 6.5 sacks Long - 1 sack Campbell - 7.0 sacks Ware - 10 sacks Casey - 5 sacks Docket - 0.0 ack acks Just off of these numbers alone $10mm a year seems to be at the lower end. He's going to get every bit of that. I think if Buffalo offered him $10mm/year for 6 years with a $5mm bonus he'd sign it tomorrow. The bottom line is that the way our defense is playing he is the perfect fit for our team. Our LB's clean up what he doesn't get to and he keeps the runner inside. D'Norris Searcy This is a guy that championship teams covet. This is the guy that wins you the Super Bowl on that clutch INT. He won't let the same play happen twice, he won't make the same mistake twice and he learns. When we get to the playoffs one day and even the Super Bowl if Searcy is on our team he is going to make a difference when it matters most. It is because he is always getting to the ball, always hustling and plays his heart out. It would be a mistake not to resign this guy. His value should be less then $3.5mm for a 2 to 3 year term. Brandon Spikes For the first time in 10 years we have a premier D that can stop the run. That is because we have Brown and Bradham. But, we have Spikes, too. That means on goal line and package situations we can put this run stuffer in. Good teams stop the run. The best teams stop the run when the other team is going to run it regardless of how many you put in the box. We do that. Brandon Spikes is a vested player who adds attitude to this team and he likes being here. If Bradham, Brown or Alonso get hurt Spikes will fill in perfectly fine. He has actually not been blown up in pass protection, either! Bradon Spikes should remain a Bill, IMO. It would be best for him and us, both. He is here for 1 year $3.25 now. I think if we offer him $3mm/4 years with a relatively healthy bonus he stays. I think he is worth it. Jairus Wynn Yes, he is injured now but the guy was playing at a high level before injury. Enough so that I thought if forced to rely upon him and the others at DE for 2016 we would not be that bad off. A 5 year vet, he is now vested and can breath a sigh of relief. He's set for life now. Signed for 2014 on a $635k contract he might be wanting a little more. He'd probably trade that for years. Two years @$800k/year and I tell this 28 year old journeymen that he's welcome back. Corbin Bryant A Restricted Free Agent it is a bit different for him. But, he will get offered more then the just under the $500,000 he earned in 2014. If we offer this guy a 3 year and come out paying him less then $1.2mm over the course of that then I would be very happy. At 26 years old he is a bit younger then Wynn and could be part of any backup plan for Dareus. Larry Dean He is a special teams contributor and I think he can be retained. The third part can come later when I have time. Anything specific you'd like to ask with how we can line up if we lose any of those in any combination or what? Awesome post.
boyst Posted December 20, 2014 Posted December 20, 2014 Quickmtidbit. I see a few things buckling our FA's. Dallas and Atlanta Atlanta with a new coach may want to feature Hughes as a lynch pin. Dallas has all three starting LB's going to FA. I would like to see Justin Durrant to Carolina and that'd make a top 3 LB unit with Thomas-Keuchly-Durrant. Rolando McClain may want big money and them getting Spikes to fill that nroll would help shut down the middle. They play some pretty pass happy teams, though. Bruce Carter needs to be upgraded. If we end up trading an LB I think we can get a partner in Dallas.
BillsFanM.D. Posted December 20, 2014 Posted December 20, 2014 Just off of these numbers alone $10mm a year seems to be at the lower end. He's going to get every bit of that. I think if Buffalo offered him $10mm/year for 6 years with a $5mm bonus he'd sign it tomorrow. Great post. thanks. The above is the only thing I'd question. I think he'll want significantly more money in signing bonus unless the Bills guarantee his salary for at least half that deal.
boyst Posted December 20, 2014 Posted December 20, 2014 Great post. thanks. The above is the only thing I'd question. I think he'll want significantly more money in signing bonnot unless the Bills guarantee his salary for at least half that deal. I think they'll have to to compete with others. I think gaurenteeing the front of the contract over the next 3 years is smart. While we have loads of talent around him he will play. We are not talking about Mark Anderson. We are talking about a player that for two years has lived up to his position in the draft. Hughres was a firs rounder for a reason
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