thebandit27 Posted December 10, 2014 Posted December 10, 2014 it's likely based on nfl history. it's statistically likely. isn't that what "analytics" are all about? isn't that what the bills profess to subscribe to? Says who? The bust rate for 1st round picks is around 50% over the history of the NFL (per the "Draftology" study performed several years back), and that includes top 10 picks, which should statistically be far less bust-prone, so I hardly call your complete and total guessing to be any type of confirmation that it's statistically likely. Again I ask: would you care to support your stance with any type of rationalization that's rooted in fact, and not a sweeping generalization at best and a total and complete guess at worst?
Jay_Fixit Posted December 10, 2014 Posted December 10, 2014 He's a stud. He'll be one of the best receivers in the NFL for years. He's fast, he's strong, he runs great routes, he has great hands, he's great after the catch. I'm ecstatic he's on the Bills. I just wish he had better people throwing to him.
NickelCity Posted December 10, 2014 Posted December 10, 2014 He's a stud. He'll be one of the best receivers in the NFL for years. He's fast, he's strong, he runs great routes, he has great hands, he's great after the catch. I'm ecstatic he's on the Bills. I just wish he had better people throwing to him. Yep.
BringBackFergy Posted December 10, 2014 Posted December 10, 2014 I am interested in your over all grade 1-10. He now has more receptions then Joe Cribbs (52) who held the rookie record for receptions. Watkins now has 58 I have two gripes, catches EVERYTHING in Practice but appears to give up on game day passes AND an annoying durability problem. Keep in mind, this is a rookie and if this guy continues to improve he will be well worth the drafting price it cost Buffalo.. I give him an overall score of 8 http://www.buffalobi...af-89c49dcf2e09 I give him an 8 on quality catches, a 7 on production and an 8 on potential.
BarleyNY Posted December 10, 2014 Posted December 10, 2014 (edited) Reading is fundamental. I did say there were probably a few who would go ahead of him of the 7 I already said and never said he's a top 10 guy now. I promise you I watch plenty of football and have seen every Tampa game this year. Evans is not better than Watkins. He's the #2 WR on his team, plays for in the semi-pro NFC South and routinely sees one on one coverage that Sammy does not. Benjamin, also plays in the terrible NFC South has less field awareness than any of the other top WRs in the class and the worst hands. He runs awful routes and is completely raw. Beckham has half a season, playing with a HOF QB and has been great. Let's see what happens when defenses start rolling coverages the way they do with Sammy. That said, you're the one who said Sammy MIGHT be a top 20 WR some day and you've yet to show me your list. There's no way he'd go 20th in a redraft at the position. So if you want to come at me, go for it, but bring something to the table. Reading IS fundamental. I'm still waiting on your rationale for why you have Watkins so highly rated. My eyes tell me he's in that 20-25 range right now (with some room to grow) and, low and behold, that's where his production is. You think he's much, much better than that so I'd love to hear why. If you really did watch all of the Tampa games you might have noticed that Evans has outperformed Sammy as well as his teammate Vincent Jackson (who incidentally also has better numbers than Watkins) despite having a terrible running game and the likes of Josh McCown and Mike Glennon playing QB. Please quit making things up. Edited December 10, 2014 by BarleyNY
Jauronimo Posted December 10, 2014 Posted December 10, 2014 Says who? The bust rate for 1st round picks is around 50% over the history of the NFL (per the "Draftology" study performed several years back), and that includes top 10 picks, which should statistically be far less bust-prone, so I hardly call your complete and total guessing to be any type of confirmation that it's statistically likely. Again I ask: would you care to support your stance with any type of rationalization that's rooted in fact, and not a sweeping generalization at best and a total and complete guess at worst? Thats birdog in a nutshell. Lots of preconceptions which are reflective of no particular set of facts or reality. This is how it starts. Upon even the most superficial examination, those things which he describes as "likely" unravel into plausible, which further erode into ostensibly plausible, which then get exposed as pulled out of thin air. Even then he will not waver.
JC2002 Posted December 10, 2014 Posted December 10, 2014 Sammie is doing fine I am expecting him to finish with 80 catches 1000+ yards and 8 tds which would be great rookie season .Thats a top 20 receiver and is right on the outside of the top ten which is fine for this year .
John from Riverside Posted December 10, 2014 Posted December 10, 2014 The kid came as advertised......He has everthing it takes to be one of the best WR's in the league A couple of comments - The jump from first year to 2nd year is usually huge in two positions....offensive line and wide receiver - I know a lot has been made of what we gave up for Watkins.....the thing that keeps getting left out is that everything you get from a rookie player is gravy....because you are drafting for the FUTURE not for the now in the NFL draft. Yes some players come more ready to play then others......but the fact is that you draft players who are going to get better....and Watkins is gonna do that - Sammy has had some unfortunate luck this year.......he was never a injury prone player in college yet got some when he came to the pros.....that is just bad luck which I dont expect to continue. - QB changes along the way in the year have not helped him - A OC who was afraid to look Revis way didnt help him - He has made some silly rookie mistakes along the way that he will learn from like the showboating strip that should have been a touchdown - He gets stripped against the broncos in that first drive and every time I look at he might have scored on that play with his explosiveness - The kid does all the LITTLE THINGS to help along the way......he is a pretty darn good blocker for a rookie wide reciever I think NEXT year when we get this OL situation straightened out he is going to absolutely blow up
Talley56 Posted December 10, 2014 Posted December 10, 2014 I am interested in your over all grade 1-10. He now has more receptions then Joe Cribbs (52) who held the rookie record for receptions. Watkins now has 58 I have two gripes, catches EVERYTHING in Practice but appears to give up on game day passes AND an annoying durability problem. Keep in mind, this is a rookie and if this guy continues to improve he will be well worth the drafting price it cost Buffalo.. I give him an overall score of 8 http://www.buffalobi...af-89c49dcf2e09 I have to respectfully but strongly disagree with this. If anything I feel like I have seen the exact opposite. With the inaccurate throws that have come his way in his young career I feel like I see him catch passes that many other receivers would have given up on (passes thrown behind him, over-thrown, etc.) I've really liked him and I think of all the rookie receivers he's had the worst passes thrown to him. But I'll admit I haven't watched enough Tampa or Carolina games this year to say that with the utmost confidence.
birdog1960 Posted December 10, 2014 Posted December 10, 2014 Says who? The bust rate for 1st round picks is around 50% over the history of the NFL (per the "Draftology" study performed several years back), and that includes top 10 picks, which should statistically be far less bust-prone, so I hardly call your complete and total guessing to be any type of confirmation that it's statistically likely. Again I ask: would you care to support your stance with any type of rationalization that's rooted in fact, and not a sweeping generalization at best and a total and complete guess at worst? how bout a link to the study. how do they define bust? and by you're reckoning 1st round draft choices for 2015 are of little value. how is it then that the brown's seemed to value ours so much? can you cite any source that state that 2015 1st round draft choices are of little value? being obtuse doessn't advance your argument. 2015 1st round draft choices are certainly very valuable . anyone arguing otherwise is foolish.
FireChan Posted December 10, 2014 Posted December 10, 2014 how bout a link to the study. how do they define bust? and by you're reckoning 1st round draft choices for 2015 are of little value. how is it then that the brown's seemed to value ours so much? can you cite any source that state that 2015 1st round draft choices are of little value? being obtuse doessn't advance your argument. 2015 1st round draft choices are certainly very valuable . anyone arguing otherwise is foolish. You're the one who said he's "likely" very valuable and cited analytics. Let's see your numbers. And here's the link http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftology408.php Now please, dispute it with your research.
thebandit27 Posted December 10, 2014 Posted December 10, 2014 (edited) how bout a link to the study. how do they define bust? and by you're reckoning 1st round draft choices for 2015 are of little value. how is it then that the brown's seemed to value ours so much? can you cite any source that state that 2015 1st round draft choices are of little value? being obtuse doessn't advance your argument. 2015 1st round draft choices are certainly very valuable . anyone arguing otherwise is foolish. I'm obtuse? I've asked you on 3 separate occasions to support your stance. You haven't. The study is linked above (since apparently you are familiar with neither Google nor the internet). I'll correspond with you further if and when you decide to actually provide some type of fact (or even anything that remotely resembles a justification) for your apparent stance. Until then, we're done here. Edited December 10, 2014 by thebandit27
Jay_Fixit Posted December 10, 2014 Posted December 10, 2014 He also beat his man off the line and was wide open on the last play of the game when Orton missed him by a couple yards which would have been 4 defining plays in 8 wins and maybe a playoff berth. He's a great player and will be for a decade barring serious injury. It was and is and will remain a great trade IMO. If Watkins had a good QB throwing to him he'd be a lot more productive than he is right now (and that's darn productive). Sammy has been targeted 110 times and has an embarrassing 58 catches on those targets. 58 receptions is really good for a rookie receiver, but Watkins, based on the amount of targets thrown his way, should have a lot more.
BuffaloBillsForever Posted December 10, 2014 Posted December 10, 2014 (edited) Sammy is a good player, but I still have not read anything on this website that comes close in the context of the Bills why he is worth the 4th overall, what looks like now a mid 1st round (15th overall/8-8 record) and a 4th rounder? Please tell me why. Edited December 10, 2014 by BuffaloBillsForever
thebandit27 Posted December 10, 2014 Posted December 10, 2014 If Watkins had a good QB throwing to him he'd be a lot more productive than he is right now (and that's darn productive). Sammy has been targeted 110 times and has an embarrassing 58 catches on those targets. 58 receptions is really good for a rookie receiver, but Watkins, based on the amount of targets thrown his way, should have a lot more. Especially considering he's been credited with only 4 drops. http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2014/ Contrast it with Beckham, who has almost equal number of catches (2 fewer drops credited) on 28 fewer targets...should be obvious what the difference is IMO.
FireChan Posted December 10, 2014 Posted December 10, 2014 Especially considering he's been credited with only 4 drops. http://www.sportingc...ats/drops/2014/ Contrast it with Beckham, who has almost equal number of catches (2 fewer drops credited) on 28 fewer targets...should be obvious what the difference is IMO. And contrast it to KB. Same story.
TheFunPolice Posted December 10, 2014 Posted December 10, 2014 (edited) A very good player that the Bills overpaid to get given the draft market for WR this season Edited December 10, 2014 by TheFunPolice
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