Maddog69 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I love the Bills and want them to go undefeated but there is absolutely ZERO chance they beat the three best teams in football. I don't care how much of a homer you are, you cannot honestly believe that this will happen. There is a very high likelihood that we lose all 3 games. In fact, there is a much greater chance of going 0-4 in this final stretch than going 4-0. If I had to put arbitrary odds, I would say: Win 0-4 games: 15% Win 1 of 4 games 40% Win 2 of 4 games 35% Win 3 of 4 games 10% Win 4 of 4 games 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Real Buffalo Joe Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I love the Bills and want them to go undefeated but there is absolutely ZERO chance they beat the three best teams in football. I don't care how much of a homer you are, you cannot honestly believe that this will happen. There is a very high likelihood that we lose all 3 games. In fact, there is a much greater chance of going 0-4 in this final stretch than going 4-0. If I had to put arbitrary odds, I would say: Win 0-4 games: 15% Win 1 of 4 games 40% Win 2 of 4 games 35% Win 3 of 4 games 10% Win 4 of 4 games 0% So you're saying there's a chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rivermont Mike Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Here's an idea for fans--the Bills are already doing this: How about we focus on going 1-0 on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cereal Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/Buffalo.html Does this mean that the odds are.... 208,946,935/4,359,092,304 = 4.8%..? I don't think that's right, but the answer to OP's question has to be somewhere in there, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProcessAccepted Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Here's an idea for fans--the Bills are already doing this: How about we focus on going 1-0 on Sunday? I agree but on the other hand this is how we fill time between Sundays. The players and staff need to focus on each game one at a time, but the fans, we can do what ever we want, these discussions do not impact performance on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Setrett Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Here's one man's estimate. It's not rigorous, but it will provide a sense of the odds. The chance the Bills beat the Broncos is approximately 15%. The chance they beat the Packers at home is maybe 20%. The chance they beat Oakland is 90% given they've only won about 10% of their games. The Bills have never beaten Brady in Gillette and have only won about 10% of their meetings total. Let's say NE sitting starters and their homefield advantage is a wash. The chance of winning all four is the product of the individual probabilities or about 1/4 of one percent. In other words, the chances are about 1 in 400. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Here's one man's estimate. It's not rigorous, but it will provide a sense of the odds. The chance the Bills beat the Broncos is approximately 15%. The chance they beat the Packers at home is maybe 20%. The chance they beat Oakland is 90% given they've only won about 10% of their games. The Bills have never beaten Brady in Gillette and have only won about 10% of their meetings total. Let's say NE sitting starters and their homefield advantage is a wash. The chance of winning all four is the product of the individual probabilities or about 1/4 of one percent. In other words, the chances are about 1 in 400. If they beat the Broncos away, which is an enormous if, I would say the chances of beating the Pack at home following that would be far greater than 20%. Maybe even 50-50, although probably a little less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 longest win streak: 2 games. I think we are due to tear off 6 straight to end the season and head into the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 longest win streak: 2 games. I think we are due to tear off 6 straight to end the season and head into the playoffs. Way, way overdue. So overdue in fact that it is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I love the Bills and want them to go undefeated but there is absolutely ZERO chance they beat the three best teams in football. I don't care how much of a homer you are, you cannot honestly believe that this will happen. There is a very high likelihood that we lose all 3 games. In fact, there is a much greater chance of going 0-4 in this final stretch than going 4-0. If I had to put arbitrary odds, I would say: Win 0-4 games: 15% Win 1 of 4 games 40% Win 2 of 4 games 35% Win 3 of 4 games 10% Win 4 of 4 games 0% id probably fall closer to: Win 0-4 games: 10% Win 1 of 4 games 33% Win 2 of 4 games 43% Win 3 of 4 games 12% Win 4 of 4 games 2% Way, way overdue. So overdue in fact that it is a lock. #analytics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Hansen Forever Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 About the same chance of me winning the powerball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1B4IDie Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 (edited) 1 in 99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 The same chance of getting attacked by a Sharknado and a Tyrannosaurus Rex while eating a healthy, good tasting Burger King meal onboard a real life StarTrek Enterprise Space ship. About the same chance of me winning the powerball. you have a better chance. Edited December 4, 2014 by Why So Serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 About the same odds as me hooking up with a 22 year-old asian chick with a poppin body. ZERO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Real Buffalo Joe Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 About the same odds as me hooking up with a 22 year-old asian chick with a poppin body, for free. ZERO. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 About the same odds as me hooking up with a 22 year-old asian chick with a poppin body. ZERO. I could arrange that. I doubt I could arrange the Bills victories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord_MacDonald Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Odds aren't great, but if we were somehow able to do it we would have to be considered legit super-bowl contenders. There is no other way to think about knocking off the 3 top teams in the league in a 4 game stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 (edited) I was just kidding. I don't see us running the tables, 2-2 is the best I see us doing but I'll be cheering them on to prove me wrong. yeah, I got that. in my Utopian dream the Bills need 2 of the next 3 and definable the last game v the Cheatriots . to be totally honest, Unless Orton proves me wrong. I can only see 1-3 in December. Anything better will just make me happy Edited December 4, 2014 by BillsFan-4-Ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norton20 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 (edited) 0.01 Edited December 4, 2014 by norton20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 fixed appreciate that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snorom Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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