Gordio Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 There are too many people on here who believe that get a Quarterback who has been to the play-offs and gone deep in the play-offs before and it is the answer to getting this team into the play-offs for evermore. It isn't. If the guy you are talking about is Brady, or Manning, or Rodgers or maybe even Brees then maybe but it isn't. Let's look at some established veteran guys who it could be argued are in the "second tier" of NFL Quarterbacks.... Big Ben has been to play offs once in 3 years and hasn't won a play-off game since the 2010 AFC Championship. Rivers has been to the play-offs once in 5 years. Romo has been once in 5 years too. Eli Manning has been to the post-season once in 6 years (and won the whole show on that occasion). None of those guys are a guarantee and do you know why they are not - because they play on big money deals that make keeping the rest of the roster strong difficult. Now let's apply the logic to Kap. He went to the play-offs 3 times in the first three years he started (his 2nd, 3rd and 4th year) on a cheap deal and a pretty loaded team. He got his big deal the team lost some depth, especially in the defensive backfield and had some other issues and he didn't make it to the play-offs last year. Saying "oh but he had great stats in that time" is irrelevant. Jake Delhomme had pretty good stats his first years in Carolina - he took them to the play-offs twice in that period including a Superbowl loss and had good stats in the play-offs. He was not the long term answer in Carolina and he wasn't the saviour in Cleveland either. So to me the money you are paying Kap ($19million a year) makes it difficult to keep the rest of your roster as stacked and only the true greats cover over those cracks year in and year out - even the Hall of Very Good players such as those named above are not able to do it every year and I don't think Kap is in that company. You make a lot of sense. Nice post. Well done sir.
dave mcbride Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 (edited) There are too many people on here who believe that get a Quarterback who has been to the play-offs and gone deep in the play-offs before and it is the answer to getting this team into the play-offs for evermore. It isn't. If the guy you are talking about is Brady, or Manning, or Rodgers or maybe even Brees then maybe but it isn't. Let's look at some established veteran guys who it could be argued are in the "second tier" of NFL Quarterbacks.... Big Ben has been to play offs once in 3 years and hasn't won a play-off game since the 2010 AFC Championship. Rivers has been to the play-offs once in 5 years. Romo has been once in 5 years too. Eli Manning has been to the post-season once in 6 years (and won the whole show on that occasion). None of those guys are a guarantee and do you know why they are not - because they play on big money deals that make keeping the rest of the roster strong difficult. Now let's apply the logic to Kap. He went to the play-offs 3 times in the first three years he started (his 2nd, 3rd and 4th year) on a cheap deal and a pretty loaded team. He got his big deal the team lost some depth, especially in the defensive backfield and had some other issues and he didn't make it to the play-offs last year. Saying "oh but he had great stats in that time" is irrelevant. Jake Delhomme had pretty good stats his first years in Carolina - he took them to the play-offs twice in that period including a Superbowl loss and had good stats in the play-offs. He was not the long term answer in Carolina and he wasn't the saviour in Cleveland either. So to me the money you are paying Kap ($19million a year) makes it difficult to keep the rest of your roster as stacked and only the true greats cover over those cracks year in and year out - even the Hall of Very Good players such as those named above are not able to do it every year and I don't think Kap is in that company. Yeah but. The thing about these guys is that they pretty much guarantee that you won't be bad and they get you to the playoffs 50+ percent of the time. Let's take Rivers. The Chargers have had one only one losing season in the last 5 years (and it was 7-9, which qualifies as a "good" season for the Bills in the last 15 years), and in 3 of those 5 they had winning records. In his 9 seasons as a starter, the Chargers have made the playoffs 5 times (55 percent of the time) and had only one losing season (again, 7-9). The Steelers have made the playoffs 7 times in 11 years with Roethlisberger as a starter, and have never had a losing record. They have won the Super Bowl twice and gone 3 times. The Cowboys have made the playoffs 4 times in Romo's 9 years as a starter and have had only one losing record. The Giants have made the playoffs 5 times in Manning's ten seasons a starter and have 8 seasons of .500 or better. They have won the Super Bowl twice. The Blls have reached .500 twice in the past 14 years (14 percent of the time) with 0 playoff appearances. The teams above collectively have been .500 or better 35 out of 39 seasons (90 percent of the time) with 21 playoff appearances (54 percent of the time) and 5 Super Bowl appearances (13 percent of the time). Basically, of the teams you mention, over the last decade their chances of going to the Super Bowl are roughly the same as the Bills reaching. .500. More importantly, expanding the sample size proves that long term decency/success is mostly about having a franchise qb. Edited May 20, 2015 by dave mcbride
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 (edited) There are too many people on here who believe that get a Quarterback who has been to the play-offs and gone deep in the play-offs before and it is the answer to getting this team into the play-offs for evermore. It isn't. If the guy you are talking about is Brady, or Manning, or Rodgers or maybe even Brees then maybe but it isn't. Let's look at some established veteran guys who it could be argued are in the "second tier" of NFL Quarterbacks.... Big Ben has been to play offs once in 3 years and hasn't won a play-off game since the 2010 AFC Championship. Rivers has been to the play-offs once in 5 years. Romo has been once in 5 years too. Eli Manning has been to the post-season once in 6 years (and won the whole show on that occasion). None of those guys are a guarantee and do you know why they are not - because they play on big money deals that make keeping the rest of the roster strong difficult. Now let's apply the logic to Kap. He went to the play-offs 3 times in the first three years he started (his 2nd, 3rd and 4th year) on a cheap deal and a pretty loaded team. He got his big deal the team lost some depth, especially in the defensive backfield and had some other issues and he didn't make it to the play-offs last year. Saying "oh but he had great stats in that time" is irrelevant. Jake Delhomme had pretty good stats his first years in Carolina - he took them to the play-offs twice in that period including a Superbowl loss and had good stats in the play-offs. He was not the long term answer in Carolina and he wasn't the saviour in Cleveland either. So to me the money you are paying Kap ($19million a year) makes it difficult to keep the rest of your roster as stacked and only the true greats cover over those cracks year in and year out - even the Hall of Very Good players such as those named above are not able to do it every year and I don't think Kap is in that company. Essentially, I take your point to be that only a small handful of QB can carry a team. The rest can be a strong piece in a contending team, with the catch-22 that paying high for a few star players (including QB) makes it harder to build or to keep a contending team. That's an excellent point and btw, goes a ways to explain why teams like the Rams and Lions (pre-CBA limiting rook salaries) have failed to contend despite drafting good QB, why NO is sliding out of contention, and why Seattle may be hurting after they pay Wilson. Factually IF Kaep were traded, his salary will "only:" cost the team trading for him up to $13M this year in salary and roster bonuses (he gets up to $2M on a per-game started basis), $14.3 next year, $16M in 2017. HIs bonus doesn't carry to the trade partner AFAIK, and it's the final 3 years of his contract that make the value so high. Essentially right now he's being paid like a mid-tier QB - a Rivers/Dalton/Alex Smith type guy. Yeah, that's what these mid-tier guys command in today's market, and teams that want to contend have to work around that just as they have to work around paying their defensive stars (Kaep this year will get Mario Williams money). That's the facts of today's salary-cap/FA market football team. You have a great point that paying that kind of $$ to an "almost-great" QB has a negative roster impact but what is the alternative? Perennially paying peanuts to a rookie you hope will develop or $4-$5M/yr to a mediocre vet journeyman. The Bills will pay something close to $8M this year to their 3 QB, with another $1-1.5M of dead money to QB past (Orton). Would it be worth $4-5M more to have a QB like Kaep (or Rivers, or Roeth) on the roster? Some would say yes. Heck, I would say yes! Kaep had a pretty hot stretch of games in his 2nd year, when he first took the starting job from Smith. Since then he's blown hot and cold - >65% completions one week, <50% completions the next. He actually was more consistent last year, which is a good sign long term. But I think the Kaep trade talk is nonsense. Do we really think the '49ers want to roll with Blaine Gabbert as the only QB on their roster? Only if there's a QB coming out in 2016 they really like and they plan to pull a Colts and suck for him, maybe. Edited May 20, 2015 by Hopeful
dave mcbride Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 Essentially, I take your point to be that only a small handful of QB can carry a team. The rest can be a strong piece in a contending team, with the catch-22 that paying high for a few star players (including QB) makes it harder to build or to keep a contending team. That's an excellent point and btw, goes a ways to explain why teams like the Rams and Lions (pre-CBA limiting rook salaries) have failed to contend despite drafting good QB, why NO is sliding out of contention, and why Seattle may be hurting after they pay Wilson. I think that based on what I posted above, this isn't really true.
Nanker Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 The only problem is that it's this one. OMG! I think you're on to something here. I had no idea EJ was a southpaw. Maybe that's why he has accuracy issues throwing the football right-handed.
Jobot Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 The 49ers were idiots for not letting him dominate the nfl with the pistol read offense that led them to the super bowl. They panicked because of RGIII's injury (and maybe rightfully so), and tried to convert kap to a pocket passer. But Kapernick is much bigger and seemed to be able to avoid the contact much better than RGIII. Run the offense that your talent allows you to run!!!
mitchmurraydowntown Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 (edited) We could use CK & whatever it takes for us to get a guy who has been to conference finals / Superbowl's recently is really important. Sometimes your QB carries your team when there's injuries & other issues, where as if the starting QB gets injured then it's potluck. Edited May 20, 2015 by mitchmurraydowntown
C.Biscuit97 Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 The 49ers were idiots for not letting him dominate the nfl with the pistol read offense that led them to the super bowl. They panicked because of RGIII's injury (and maybe rightfully so), and tried to convert kap to a pocket passer. But Kapernick is much bigger and seemed to be able to avoid the contact much better than RGIII. Run the offense that your talent allows you to run!!! Our new OC was his his old OC. He's not getting traded until next year at the earliest, and that's if he flames out. I wanted him in the draft. I thought he was Cam Newton Lite. But history shows that QBs who using running as a big part of their game tend to get adjusted too. No matter how big or strong your QB is, you don't want them taking hits. Defenses force those guys to beat you from the pocket and when you are used to make plays with your feet, it is hard to consistently win with your arm. This would be my big concern with Taylor. I could see him doing great for a few games and teams adjusting.
Buffalo Barbarian Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 The only problem is that it's this one. I know he is inaccurate but jeez
Jobot Posted May 20, 2015 Posted May 20, 2015 Our new OC was his his old OC. He's not getting traded until next year at the earliest, and that's if he flames out. I wanted him in the draft. I thought he was Cam Newton Lite. But history shows that QBs who using running as a big part of their game tend to get adjusted too. No matter how big or strong your QB is, you don't want them taking hits. Defenses force those guys to beat you from the pocket and when you are used to make plays with your feet, it is hard to consistently win with your arm. This would be my big concern with Taylor. I could see him doing great for a few games and teams adjusting. I don't believe that defenses ever figured out their offence, I think the 49ers just abandoned it. I doubt he could survive 10+ seasons as a franchise qb playing this style of football, but the guy was lightning in a bottle, I would say let it ride if he was on my team and hope he stays healthy.
HT02 Posted June 19, 2015 Posted June 19, 2015 http://www.cheatsheet.com/sports/nfl-3-potential-landing-spots-for-colin-kaepernick.html/?ref=YF Upside, far more successful than anyone we have, young and has worked with Roman. Maybe not... getting the reputation as a problem child, pain the in ass, had a bad year last year, expensive
BigPappy Posted June 19, 2015 Posted June 19, 2015 http://www.cheatsheet.com/sports/nfl-3-potential-landing-spots-for-colin-kaepernick.html/?ref=YF Upside, far more successful than anyone we have, young and has worked with Roman. Maybe not... getting the reputation as a problem child, pain the in ass, had a bad year last year, expensive With The Greg Roman connection, I am surprised Buffalo is not on that list. BigPappy
K D Posted June 19, 2015 Posted June 19, 2015 With The Greg Roman connection, I am surprised Buffalo is not on that list. BigPappy that's probably why we aren't. they had a terrible year together last year. people were demanding Roman be fired.
KD in CA Posted June 19, 2015 Posted June 19, 2015 From what I've seen he's about as accurate as EJ. I don't think that's worth $20MM/yr.
ALF Posted June 19, 2015 Posted June 19, 2015 At least Roman would know if he is worth it , I'am not sure at this point.
C.Biscuit97 Posted June 19, 2015 Posted June 19, 2015 With The Greg Roman connection, I am surprised Buffalo is not on that list. BigPappy IF he is available, why would either him or Roman want a reunite? Last year would be the reason why he is avaliable.
kickedface Posted June 19, 2015 Posted June 19, 2015 agreed roman knows about why not to get him. i say no
BigPappy Posted June 19, 2015 Posted June 19, 2015 IF he is available, why would either him or Roman want a reunite? Last year would be the reason why he is avaliable. I will say first that I would not mind Kap in Buffalo, but it would never happen...there's not enough cap space. That said, there was a lot more going on last year in San Fran than anyone knows. I don't think Roman or Kap as a pair were the issue. There was a TON of decention in that organization from Harbough, causing issues throughout the whole team. Besides, one season does not show all the facts regarding Kap as a QB. Is he an elite QB? that remains to be seen. BUT, he is better than ANYONE on this roster currently. BigPappy
ChanOverChin Posted June 19, 2015 Posted June 19, 2015 When Buddy Nix drafted Manuel I think he thought that the "read-option" QB type like Kap would be in vogue. The problem is that Manuel is not prone to running the ball, even though he is very athletic. It will be interesting to see how Manuel performs with high quality OC working with him and doing his best to put him in situations where he can succeed. I think the neophyte OC that Manuel had to work with the last few years did Manuel no favors.
Canadian Bills Fan Posted June 19, 2015 Posted June 19, 2015 The Bills drafted EJ because they felt like they had to and sadly it was during the worst QB draft in recent years CBF
Recommended Posts