Bocephuz Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 (edited) Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not? I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How Kyle did on every pass play ( I may have missed a snap or two here.. but this should be 95% accurate) DISCLAIMER ( I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play) _______ ______________________ TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 32 snaps (much better snap count … ) LINE BREAKDOWNS - 2 snaps or 6% ( defined as - O-Line clearly messed up and Kyle did not have a moment to throw after hitting the last step of his drop..) SUFFICIENT PROTECTION - 30 snaps or 96 % of pass plays ( defined as O-Line did sufficient job and Kyle hit the last step of his drop and had a moment to throw). UNFORCED KYLE ERRORS: - 9 snaps or 28 % of pass plays where he had time ( unforced error defined as Kyle having time and having unforced accuracy issues/ or taking bad sacks) Bottom Line: A game of extremes for Orton. On one hand he made two incredible throws on the run ( very unusual for him) and on the other hand he had 2 brutal interceptions and 9 unforced errors ( tying his previous high for the year). The O Line was absolutely outstanding. Orton had tons of time for the most part. They missed a few stunts and gave up some pressures on a few blitzes but when it was even numbers they quite frankly dominated. Some of the inaccuracy is on Orton.. some of it is due to the outstanding work of the Cleveland secondary. They pretty much blanketed our receivers all day. __________ __________ PLAYS OF NOTE Q1- ball batted by DE Q1- Orton misses Hogan twice.. good coverage .. but better throws could have been made Q1 - O Line doesn’t pick up stunt Q2 - Orton INT – plenty of time.. forced it into Sammy.. should have thrown it away .. no one open Q2 - Overthrown deep ball to Sammy ( CB held Sammy a little but I still think it was overthrown) Q2 - Orton SACKED – coverage sack Q2 - Orton double clutches.. misses Sammy on Slant Q3- Orton INT – forcing it to Sammy Q3- Orton makes outstanding sideline throw to Woods on the run Q3 - Orton scrambles on 4th down.. another outstanding throw on the run to Woods Q3 - Orton deep throw to Goodwin incomplete… good throw.. better coverage Q4 - Orton overthrows Woods Q4 - Orton misses back shoulder throw to Woods SUMMARY - Orton had a very rough day but redeemed himself with the two clutch throws to Woods. Orton is not good enough/accurate enough to overcome solid coverage like the Browns were executing. Granted there's only a handful of guys ..Manning, Brees, Rodgers.. who can make those throws.. but I think I've seen enough of a sample size to absolutely conclude Orton is not in their category. If the O-Line continues to play like this and give Orton sufficient time like this game then much more should be expected of Orton going forward. Edited December 2, 2014 by Bocephuz
Matt in KC Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 Thanks for posting this again. I always like reading the breakdown and see if it matches my impression from watching live. I'm surprised the line provided that good protection this week. I hate to ask for more legwork from you, but can you post the week-over-week trending for your categories? You've done this enough weeks now, that it would be interesting.
The Big Cat Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 What about the one he spiked seven feet short of Sammy on the comeback route?
thebandit27 Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 Always appreciate this thread. Thanks. Curious if you felt, as I did when re-watching, that the two best plays by the Cleveland secondary were the defensive holding penalties they took against Sammy? On both, he had the defender (Haden the first time, Skrine the second) beaten soundly on a double-move that would've lead to him being wide open down the sideline. Each time, Orton looked in his direction and had to pull the ball down when the foul occurred. What about the one he spiked seven feet short of Sammy on the comeback route? I was going to ask about that one as well.
26CornerBlitz Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not? I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did / How Kyle did on every pass play ( I may have missed a snap or two here.. but this should be 95% accurate) DISCLAIMER ( I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play) _______ ______________________ TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 32 snaps (much better snap count … ) LINE BREAKDOWNS - 2 snaps or 6% ( defined as - O-Line clearly messed up and Kyle did not have a moment to throw after hitting the last step of his drop..) SUFFICIENT PROTECTION - 30 snaps or 96 % of pass plays ( defined as O-Line did sufficient job and Kyle hit the last step of his drop and had a moment to throw). UNFORCED KYLE ERRORS: - 9 snaps or 28 % of pass plays where he had time ( unforced error defined as Kyle having time and having unforced accuracy issues/ or taking bad sacks) Bottom Line: A game of extremes for Orton. On one hand he made two incredible throws on the run ( very unusual for him) and on the other hand he had 2 brutal interceptions and 9 unforced errors ( tying his previous high for the year). The O Line was absolutely outstanding. Orton had tons of time for the most part. They missed a few stunts and gave up some pressures on a few blitzes but when it was even numbers they quite frankly dominated. Some of the inaccuracy is on Orton.. some of it is due to the outstanding work of the Cleveland secondary. They pretty much blanketed our receivers all day. __________ __________ PLAYS OF NOTE Q1- ball batted by DE Q1- Orton misses Hogan twice.. good coverage .. but better throws could have been made Q1 - O Line doesn’t pick up stunt Q2 - Orton INT – plenty of time.. forced it into Sammy.. should have thrown it away .. no one open Q2 - Overthrown deep ball to Sammy ( CB held Sammy a little but I still think it was overthrown) Q2 - Orton SACKED – coverage sack Q2 - Orton double clutches.. misses Sammy on Slant Q3- Orton INT – forcing it to Sammy Q3- Orton makes outstanding sideline throw to Woods on the run Q3 - Orton scrambles on 4th down.. another outstanding throw on the run to Woods Q3 - Orton deep throw to Goodwin incomplete… good throw.. better coverage Q4 - Orton overthrows Woods Q4 - Orton misses back shoulder throw to Woods SUMMARY - Orton had a very rough day but redeemed himself with the two clutch throws to Woods. Orton is not good enough/accurate enough to overcome solid coverage like the Browns were executing. Granted there's only a handful of guys ..Manning, Brees, Rodgers.. who can make those throws.. but I think I've seen enough of a sample size to absolutely conclude Orton is not in their category. If the O-Line continues to play like this and give Orton sufficient time like this game then much more should be expected of Orton going forward. Great work as per usual. Thanks for the effort and the excellent breakdown. Kyle Orton is simply not good enough said Captain Obvious.
YoloinOhio Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 So in other words, doomed? Just kidding, great write up.
Kelly the Dog Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 Great stuff as usual. Here is what I am hoping: Orton is consistently inconsistent. But a) all QBs miss a few throws per game, and b) Orton is capable of making all throws, he seems to either be on or off for entire games. So c) He's been off three of the last four for the most part. And he's a 50-50 guy. It's not unreasonable to think he could be the good Orton this week, or even the next two. As a 50-50 guy, it's almost unreasonable to imagine he will be the bad Orton 5 out of 6 games.
26CornerBlitz Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 Great stuff as usual. Here is what I am hoping: Orton is consistently inconsistent. But a) all QBs miss a few throws per game, and b) Orton is capable of making all throws, he seems to either be on or off for entire games. So c) He's been off three of the last four for the most part. And he's a 50-50 guy. It's not unreasonable to think he could be the good Orton this week, or even the next two. As a 50-50 guy, it's almost unreasonable to imagine he will be the bad Orton 5 out of 6 games. To my eye, KO's decision making has also fallen off beyond the inconsistent accuracy that has plagued him for several weeks now.
Maury Ballstein Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 Wonderful addition to the board. Now let's fire Orton.
QB Bills Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 So this makes it the second QB who has progressively gotten worse with this coaching staff. Orton started off pretty good and has tapered off. Same with EJ last year. Although he did have a good game against the Jets later on. Maybe just a coincidence. Maybe not.
eball Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 Very nice work and info. Better than 99% of what we get out of the local Bills "beat" writers. Thank you.
Dan Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 ...and more informative than all the talking heads.
eball Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 Great stuff as usual. Here is what I am hoping: Orton is consistently inconsistent. But a) all QBs miss a few throws per game, and b) Orton is capable of making all throws, he seems to either be on or off for entire games. So c) He's been off three of the last four for the most part. And he's a 50-50 guy. It's not unreasonable to think he could be the good Orton this week, or even the next two. As a 50-50 guy, it's almost unreasonable to imagine he will be the bad Orton 5 out of 6 games. Interesting take. I think Orton has gotten a little gun-shy, because he was hit a LOT during his first few games in the lineup. The line has actually started to play much better, but he may be rushing things. I have not evaluated the film and this is just a gut reaction. If there is some truth to it, hopefully he gets over it quickly.
hondo in seattle Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 (edited) No QB is on target 100% of the time but Orton is clearly not as consistently accurate as some of the elite QBs. He's an average QB who will have some good days and bad days. Where Whaley can help Orton is by signing some guards that will help create a run game that will take some pressure off him. Where Marrone can help is Orton is by finding a better OC who can design a passing attack that produces more open receivers. Btw, thanks Bocephuz. Good analysis as always. Edited December 2, 2014 by hondo in seattle
2003Contenders Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 (edited) Orton and Fitz are different quarterbacks with different skill sets, but they are very similar in that both lack the consistency to be good week in and week out. Even the great ones will have off days -- but they consistently play at an elite level most weeks. Orton (like Fitz) has also shown that he CAN play over his head every now and then. If he can do that once or twice over these last 4 games, the Bills just may have a shot at the playoffs. Edited December 2, 2014 by 2003Contenders
QCity Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 Orton had his worst game as a Bill, but that 2nd pick is on Sammy. On that route the QB is trusting his receiver to at least cross the face of the DB. Haden simply ate Sammy's lunch on that play, and after that effort Robert Woods became the hot read.
The Big Cat Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 (edited) So this makes it the second QB who has progressively gotten worse with this coaching staff. Orton started off pretty good and has tapered off. Same with EJ last year. Although he did have a good game against the Jets later on. Maybe just a coincidence. Maybe not. Well, first off, this narrative needs to stop. I'm sure you're on record here as saying how great EJ was poised to be, just like many of the posters here who suddenly want to blame his limitations on the coaching staff. Secondly, the cause for Orton's so-called slide (sure looked bad against NYJ, huh?) can easily be explained one of two ways that have zero to do with the TSW default coaching critique: He's a much different QB than EJ and thus runs a different kind of offense differently. Whaley said as much in an interview. For his first few starts, teams didn't have reliable tape to gameplan for him. Now they do. He's Kyle !@#$ing Orton. Markets have a tendency to normalize, and once teams figured out what he/Hackett were up to, guess what? He regressed to the mean. Edited December 2, 2014 by The Big Cat
A Dog Named Kelso Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 (edited) Well, first off, this narrative needs to stop. I'm sure you're on record here as saying how great EJ was poised to be, just like many of the posters here who suddenly want to blame his limitations on the coaching staff. Secondly, the cause for Orton's so-called slide (sure looked bad against NYJ, huh?) can easily be explained one of two ways that have zero to do with the TSW default coaching critique: He's a much different QB than EJ and thus runs a different kind of offense differently. Whaley said as much in an interview. For his first few starts, teams didn't have reliable tape to gameplan for him. Now they do. He's Kyle !@#$ing Orton. Markets have a tendency to normalize, and once teams figured out what he/Hackett were up to, guess what? He regressed to the mean. as for 1.) Orton is a ten year vet to think there was not reliable tape is not very accurate. Its more likely that they had a very limited game plan and he executed it to a "T". The expanded playbook means learning routes and tenancies more quickly Per week. That is most likely why he played so well against the Jets after having extra time to assimilate the game plan. As for 2.) they have changed the offensive nearly every game Orton as been in the lineup ... I do not think anyone has figured out what Hackett is doing ... least of all him. That is not a knock on Hackett(I know some think he deserves) more that he is not sure what his offense is really in mastery of when it comes to his playbook. Edited December 2, 2014 by A Dog Named Kelso
26CornerBlitz Posted December 2, 2014 Posted December 2, 2014 @Andy_Benoit #Bills Film: Orton continued to struggle in red zone. Bad INT to Leonard, a free defender whom Orton never saw. #Browns Film: Leonard INT great defense, he snuck into centerfield late,Orton unaware and thought he could stare down WR vs. man coverage.
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