FireChan Posted November 16, 2014 Posted November 16, 2014 do you think there is zero chance that any of the other wr's available in the draft last year will have better numbers than watkins over the course of their rookie contracts. that's a bet i'd be willing to make against you. i'll bet you could find many others that would take it. do you think that vegas would give you better than 1:1 odds against the field? but that's exactly the bet that whaley made. and he didn't bet a couple bucks, he bet the frickin farm! i can't imagine an analytics algorithm that would have supported it. What? Does Kelvin Benjamin catching 2 TD's down 40 to the Eagles mean he was better than Sammy vs the Dolphins?
birdog1960 Posted November 16, 2014 Posted November 16, 2014 What? Does Kelvin Benjamin catching 2 TD's down 40 to the Eagles mean he was better than Sammy vs the Dolphins? that's what i thought. what metrics would you propose?
Max997 Posted November 16, 2014 Posted November 16, 2014 Trading away stevie johnson for bryce brown(a player whose production could be match by an undrafted rookie) Not exactly, the pick for Stevie could turn into a third n if so the Bills keep it n send a 4th following year to philly
FireChan Posted November 16, 2014 Posted November 16, 2014 that's what i thought. what metrics would you propose? I'm saying numbers don't and have never told the whole story. So why would any personnel person bet "on the numbers?" There isn't a metric you can use other than your eyes.
birdog1960 Posted November 16, 2014 Posted November 16, 2014 I'm saying numbers don't and have never told the whole story. So why would any personnel person bet "on the numbers?" There isn't a metric you can use other than your eyes. i disagree but there's also one very important metric that we can agree on: wins and losses. so far it's not looking good. time will tell on the future. but i think it would be fair to judge it over watkins' rookie contract. how bout the differential of wins and losses over the course of watkin's rookie contract against the fields and their respective teams? i'd take that bet too. and i think anyone else that would take it would agree that whaley should go.
FireChan Posted November 16, 2014 Posted November 16, 2014 i disagree but there's also one very important metric that we can agree on: wins and losses. so far it's not looking good. time will tell on the future. but i think it would be fair to judge it over watkins' rookie contract. how bout the differential of wins and losses over the course of watkin's rookie contract against the fields and their respective teams? i'd take that bet too. and i think anyone else that would take it would agree that whaley should go. You do realize that the Bills have as many wins as Carolina and TB combined?
purple haze Posted November 16, 2014 Posted November 16, 2014 Whaley has done NOTHING at all in his tenure here. He has not drafted smartly and hired inferior coaches and has been non almost non existent. Bring in Polian and see what a real pro is about. Troll.
birdog1960 Posted November 16, 2014 Posted November 16, 2014 (edited) You do realize that the Bills have as many wins as Carolina and TB combined? yup. i also realize the bills went 6/10 last year, tampa 4/12 and jax 2/14. watkins has a 4 year contract. all 3 teams took a receiver or 2 in the first 2 rounds. the key word was "differential". spelled out more precisely, i would submit that would mean the average win/losses over the next 4 years versus their starting win/loss level. whaley should be able to beat out jax and tampa over that period especially after making such a risky trade. agreed? Edited November 16, 2014 by birdog1960
FireChan Posted November 16, 2014 Posted November 16, 2014 (edited) yup. i also realize the bills went 6/10 last year, tampa 4/12 and jax 2/14. watkins has a 4 year contract. all 3 teams took a receiver or 2 in the first 2 rounds. the key word was "differential". spelled out more precisely, i would submit that would mean the average win/losses over the next 4 years versus their starting win/loss level. whaley should be able to beat out jax and tampa over that period especially after making such a risky trade. agreed? No. Jax took a QB with their 1st rounder. Tampa could sign an UDFA QB who turns into the next Brady. Neither of those are a result of Sammy Watkins, the trade, or our 2015 first rounder. If we went 7-9 and Tampa went 6-10, Mike Evans is better than Sammy Watkins? That's so dumb. Edited November 16, 2014 by FireChan
birdog1960 Posted November 16, 2014 Posted November 16, 2014 No. Jax took a QB with their 1st rounder. Tampa could sign an UDFA QB who turns into the next Brady. Neither of those are a result of Sammy Watkins, the trade, or our 2015 first rounder. If we went 7-9 and Tampa went 6-10, Mike Evans is better than Sammy Watkins? That's so dumb. No. Jax took a QB with their 1st rounder. Tampa could sign an UDFA QB who turns into the next Brady. Neither of those are a result of Sammy Watkins, the trade, or our 2015 first rounder. If we went 7-9 and Tampa went 6-10, Mike Evans is better than Sammy Watkins? That's so dumb. what's dumb is painting yourself into a corner. all the teams mentioned (and others, let's not exclude any of the other teams that prioritized a receiver such as the giants) ad a need for a high draft pick receiver. they took them in somewhat different spots and at greatly varying costs. the two teams mentioned specifically are perennial losers with pressure to win now just like the bills. they could have drafted any number of other players in different positions this year or any of the next 3. but i'm trying to measure the bottom line impact of picking watkins and betting the farm versus taking a less expensive wr later. it's an apples to apples comparison. and whaley should be able to outperform his lower echelon peers if he's worth his salt.
White Linen Posted November 16, 2014 Posted November 16, 2014 Whaley has done NOTHING at all in his tenure here. He has not drafted smartly and hired inferior coaches and has been non almost non existent. Bring in Polian and see what a real pro is about. Exaggerate much?
Solomon Grundy Posted November 17, 2014 Posted November 17, 2014 (edited) What a stupid thread!! Edited November 17, 2014 by the skycap
FireChan Posted November 17, 2014 Posted November 17, 2014 what's dumb is painting yourself into a corner. all the teams mentioned (and others, let's not exclude any of the other teams that prioritized a receiver such as the giants) ad a need for a high draft pick receiver. they took them in somewhat different spots and at greatly varying costs. the two teams mentioned specifically are perennial losers with pressure to win now just like the bills. they could have drafted any number of other players in different positions this year or any of the next 3. but i'm trying to measure the bottom line impact of picking watkins and betting the farm versus taking a less expensive wr later. it's an apples to apples comparison. and whaley should be able to outperform his lower echelon peers if he's worth his salt. Call it apples to apples, but your measuring stick makes no sense. According to your W/L differential, Tampa going 8-8 would be better than the Bills going 9-7. That's dumb. Also, it's a team game, so no metric is really gonna do anything for you in terms of judging the draft.
starrymessenger Posted November 17, 2014 Posted November 17, 2014 Trading away stevie johnson for bryce brown(a player whose production could be match by an undrafted rookie) Could have held onto that 4th and gotten the RB. They wanted Carlos Hyde but when the 49rs took him the went for Cyrus. Meanwhile Jeremy Hill was just sitting there. He spends a first on a QB in a very weak class. He trades up to pick a WR in a historically strong draft. Even if it's always easy to second guess a draft with hindsight, the problem I have with Whaley is that he has been reckless, taking big and ill considered bets. He says he did it because of the deserving fan base. To the contrary I think he did it because he was desperate to separate himself from a consistently underperforming administration of which most observers would consider him a part. That is an improper motive and a failure in his responsibility to be a prudent steward of the teams resources. So while I'm prepared to admit that he may have some ability, those transgressions fully justify his dismissal. Him, Marrone, Hackett and Brandon have proven themselves to be bad news. The new sheriff needs to wipe the whole slate clean. Then he has to open his checkbook (again) and hire some professionals capable of operating at this level. Nothing less will do IMO.
FireChan Posted November 17, 2014 Posted November 17, 2014 Could have held onto that 4th and gotten the RB. They wanted Carlos Hyde but when the 49rs took him the went for Cyrus. Meanwhile Jeremy Hill was just sitting there. He spends a first on a QB in a very weak class. He trades up to pick a WR in a historically strong draft. Even if it's always easy to second guess a draft with hindsight, the problem I have with Whaley is that he has been reckless, taking big and ill considered bets. He says he did it because of the deserving fan base. To the contrary I think he did it because he was desperate to separate himself from a consistently underperforming administration of which most observers would consider him a part. That is an improper motive and a failure in his responsibility to be a prudent steward of the teams resources. So while I'm prepared to admit that he may have some ability, those transgressions fully justify his dismissal. Him, Marrone, Hackett and Brandon have proven themselves to be bad news. The new sheriff needs to wipe the whole slate clean. Then he has to open his checkbook (again) and hire some professionals capable of operating at this level. Nothing less will do IMO. Besides Watkins, what pick was a "reckless bet?"
birdog1960 Posted November 17, 2014 Posted November 17, 2014 (edited) Call it apples to apples, but your measuring stick makes no sense. According to your W/L differential, Tampa going 8-8 would be better than the Bills going 9-7. That's dumb. Also, it's a team game, so no metric is really gonna do anything for you in terms of judging the draft. that's very convenient. there's no way to measure the impact of that massive gamble. i'm guessing that if watkins puts up league leading numbers, you'd believe those metrics bolster your case. but none can be found that would refute it? hmmm…. i'm guessing a savvy owner would not agree. Edited November 17, 2014 by birdog1960
Max997 Posted November 17, 2014 Posted November 17, 2014 Could have held onto that 4th and gotten the RB. They wanted Carlos Hyde but when the 49rs took him the went for Cyrus. Do you even know the facts of the trade? If you did you would know they haven't even sent the Eagles the pick for Brown yet.
starrymessenger Posted November 17, 2014 Posted November 17, 2014 Besides Watkins, what pick was a "reckless bet?" You can't look at Watkins without also looking at EJ. They really go hand in hand. The point is that we were not just one impact player away. I respect the opinions of those who see a future for EJ, however I don't and that also influences my opinion of Whaley. IMO EJ is a bust and the point is that it was writ large all over him. Whaley nevertheless shamelessly sold him as the guy who could lead the team to a championship. If he believed that he is flat out incompetent. If he didn't believe it he's disengenuous. No question the team would have been better off going with a vet and keeping their powder dry. All of what he did, ultimately to mortgage the teams future, was driven by desperation in service of a personal agenda.
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