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Casey D

By Casey D
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PromoTheRobot Hall of Famer

PromoTheRobot

Posted
Posted (edited)

Miami has quality wins over NE and SD.

 

The only quality win the Bills have is against a team whose playmaker was compromised and then went on to miss three FGs.

 

And we beat Miami. Forget?

Edited by PromoTheRobot
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truth on hold All Pro

truth on hold

Posted
Posted (edited)

Id take the bills not because I'm confident they will win but because I think it will be a close one. It is going to be a dogfight with both teams knowing what's at stake. With no time to prepare they will play balls out, and look to win with brute force and determination rather than any kind of special game planning. They'll be no give up by either side. Gets decided by last second field goal. Hopefully carpenter's revenge kick!

Edited by JTSP
Buffalo Barbarian Hall of Famer

Buffalo Barbarian

Posted
Posted

I think we all agree this one is almost as "must-win" as WW II-- to steal from Marv Levy. Can the boys bounce back from a horrendous defeat yesterday? Only three days to find out.

 

please, we should be 7 point favorites, fish going down.

machine gun kelly Hall of Famer

machine gun kelly

Posted
Posted

I believe we will win as well. Not because of kool-aid, but Fred should be healthy by then. He'll be a factor in the game. It's funny watching NFL Network, they of course go on about Cameron Wake. Funny how he was invisible in the beginning of the year.

papazoid All Pro

papazoid

Posted
Posted

 

 

arghhhhh...NO THEY ARE NOT!!!!!!!!!!! Christ this drives me nuts. Read this article

 

http://espn.go.com/e...crushed-week-11

 

First couple sentences of the article:

 

Count Las Vegas sportsbooks among those displeased with Jay Cutler.

The Green Bay Packers' 55-14 blowout of Cutler and the Chicago Bears capped the worst Sunday of the NFL season for Las Vegas sportsbooks.

An hour before kickoff, the MGM sportsbook had taken eight times more money on the Packers than on the underdog Bear

 

bookmakers absolutely adjust the lines to get equal amounts of money bet on both teams. then they have no risk of losing as they win the vig no matter the outcome. it doesn't always work, like the Chicago game you cite, but it is certainly the bookmakers intention.

plenzmd1 Hall of Famer

plenzmd1

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

 

bookmakers absolutely adjust the lines to get equal amounts of money bet on both teams. then they have no risk of losing as they win the vig no matter the outcome. it doesn't always work, like the Chicago game you cite, but it is certainly the bookmakers intention.

 

Not even close! And I truly mean that is so far from the actual industry I cannot even describe.

 

Your corner bookie lays off when he gets lopsided on one side....but bookmakers gamble.

 

Thay put lines up on Monday where they hope they don't get crushed by sharps. They know the public will hit the favorites hard, and I would say a typical weekend has at least 70% of all money bet on the side of the favorite. That's why they have huge weeks as an industry when the underdogs win, and why they get crushed when the favorites win the majority of games.

 

I will post when I get to my PC a place where you can track the money flows and where the majority of money is being bet. You will see very little 60-40, let alone 50-50.

 

As in most things, the public is almost always wrong.

 

As an aside, you all always see talking about taking the money line. Points so rarely come into the equation, you limit your ability to win over the long term by playing either side with the points, but especially the dog.

 

Interesting article here

 

http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/moneylines.htm

Edited by plenzmd1
BuffOrange Veteran

BuffOrange

Posted
Posted

plenz you're mostly right but obviously the sharps bet much bigger $ amounts than the public so it's not as extreme as 70% of money even if 80% of bets are on one side.

 

But yah, it's pretty hilarious that every thread on every forum ever reveals "let me tell you how Vegas works even though I have no clue" guy. If majority of donkey square opinions were the only factor, the lines would be extremely easy to beat; and the Jets would've been getting double digits to Pittsburgh instead of 4.

IDBillzFan Hall of Famer

IDBillzFan

Posted
Posted

So you're saying the Bills were worse than Chicago and Carolina?

 

While I try to avoid the Kool-aid, I don't know how any rational football fan can watch the current versions of either Chicago or Carolina and somehow think the Bills are in worse shape, especially when you consider their quarterback situations.

 

But I reckon some people just need to be miserable.

plenzmd1 Hall of Famer

plenzmd1

Posted
Posted

plenz you're mostly right but obviously the sharps bet much bigger $ amounts than the public so it's not as extreme as 70% of money even if 80% of bets are on one side.

 

But yah, it's pretty hilarious that every thread on every forum ever reveals "let me tell you how Vegas works even though I have no clue" guy. If majority of donkey square opinions were the only factor, the lines would be extremely easy to beat; and the Jets would've been getting double digits to Pittsburgh instead of 4.

 

True dat, but i really think with the rapid growth of sports internet betting and the money has become more pronounced on one side. Not in Vegas per se, but in totality.

 

And yes, that Jet spread was so whacked...i was scared to take it on the money line, but said in the in Around the NFL thread i was taking the Jets side...albeit it with a small bet.

TheBrownBear Veteran

TheBrownBear

Posted
Posted

I think we could lose, but in now way do I think Miami is 5.5 points better than us (even on their turf). I'd say the Bills are a slightly better team overall. Miami is getting a ton of cred for beating NE, Chicago and San Diego when all of those teams were reeling.

zow2 All Pro

zow2

Posted
Posted

I think we could lose, but in now way do I think Miami is 5.5 points better than us (even on their turf). I'd say the Bills are a slightly better team overall. Miami is getting a ton of cred for beating NE, Chicago and San Diego when all of those teams were reeling.

 

The Chicago wins by both Mia and Buf are completely discredited. The Bears are NOT what we thought they were. Miami's SD trouncing is impressive though. SD had no running game in Buffalo either and Rivers still sliced and diced them and our D had no answer. EJ stunk that day too. Clearly Miami matches up better with NE in the Brady era than we do.

 

Bottom line, this game Thurs night is an elimination game. I think the Bills match up better w/ the Dolphins based on recent history but that may not have any bearing on this game.

BuffOrange Veteran

BuffOrange

Posted
Posted

True dat, but i really think with the rapid growth of sports internet betting and the money has become more pronounced on one side. Not in Vegas per se, but in totality.

 

And yes, that Jet spread was so whacked...i was scared to take it on the money line, but said in the in Around the NFL thread i was taking the Jets side...albeit it with a small bet.

 

I remember 'cause you quoted my Jets straight up call. #HumbleBrag

yungmack Veteran

yungmack

Posted
Posted

I think we all agree this one is almost as "must-win" as WW II-- to steal from Marv Levy. Can the boys bounce back from a horrendous defeat yesterday? Only three days to find out.

No, it's not. Those days are as over as this season. The "must win" horse left the barn with that putrid performance against KC. All that's left to play for from here on out is the team's fraying dignity. I hope they win enough to give Cleveland a middling pick but a complete collapse isn't out of the question if the players throw in the towel.
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