BillsFan-4-Ever Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 thinking on the post WRT HFA. IIRC - Tampa has/had never won a game when the temp at kickoff was less than 40 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 What about fog? Have seen fog so bad a QB can not see his OTs. Yes fog is correct but it is a very rare occurrence as opposed to wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 The article is a couple of years old, but facts are facts -- there's no evidence to support the existence of "trap" or "letdown" games. You've given up on the trap game myth? Also, that study was posted here a few weeks ago. I thinkit is valid in dispelling the myth. There is no evidence that contradicts it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I remember reading that article at one point. It's a great article and well reasoned. I don't think you can just say "facts are facts" and leave it there. The way that "study" was done is not concrete as it relies on a team's final record at the end of the season and then goes back at the w/l's to determine what a "trap game" actually was. Such a strategy completely removes ebbs/flows and momentum that naturally occur within a season by simply looking at the final product - these ebbs/flows and momentum within a season are the very ESSENCE of what a trap game is. For example: Right now the Chiefs are 5-3. Right now they're an above .500 team. Right now they're a "good" team. According to many, they're fully expected to win this game vs. an "inferior" Bills team. But what if the Chiefs lose vs. the Bills? What if that kills some of their momentum and then going into the seattle game that loss gets compounded by another loss. In a heartbeat the Chiefs are 5-5. What if ultimately the Chiefs finish 7-9 in the season. In that scenario, the Chiefs wouldn't have even been considered in this study as an above .500 team despite the fact that in week 10, they were a "good" team and fully expected to win. The "facts" in that article are highly debatable. Yeah, but there are other articles and studies that say the same thing...this was merely the first one that popped up on Google. Here's one. And from another article, on ESPN, several years ago: Myth No. 4: Watch out for "trap games." The Indianapolis Colts show up in prime time three times in the first five weeks of next season. The biggest of those games is probably the Week 5 meeting with the Tennessee Titans, the team that finally knocked them out of first place in the AFC South. Two weeks before that, the Colts play a sure-to-be shootout with the defending NFC champion Arizona Cardinals. In between, the Colts host the Seattle Seahawks, coming off a dismal 4-12 season. Get ready for national commentators and Indy sports radio hosts to warn the Colts about the dreaded "trap game." The only problem? There is no such thing. To keep it simple, we'll define a trap game as any game in which an above-.500 team plays a sub-.500 team during the week between two games against opponents who will finish the season with winning records. From 1983 through 2006, better teams went 389-85 in so-called trap games, a winning percentage of .820. That was actually higher than the winning percentage for better teams in non-trap games against losing teams (.815). And since we first conducted this research two years ago, better teams have an even stronger record in trap games: 24-4-1, for a winning percentage of .845. We also checked the record when a trap game came between two good division opponents. Teams had a slightly worse record in these games (.803) -- but no better team has lost a trap game that came between matchups against two good division opponents since 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Yeah, but there are other articles and studies that say the same thing...this was merely the first one that popped up on Google. Here's one. And from another article, on ESPN, several years ago: Myth No. 4: Watch out for "trap games." The Indianapolis Colts show up in prime time three times in the first five weeks of next season. The biggest of those games is probably the Week 5 meeting with the Tennessee Titans, the team that finally knocked them out of first place in the AFC South. Two weeks before that, the Colts play a sure-to-be shootout with the defending NFC champion Arizona Cardinals. In between, the Colts host the Seattle Seahawks, coming off a dismal 4-12 season. Get ready for national commentators and Indy sports radio hosts to warn the Colts about the dreaded "trap game." The only problem? There is no such thing. To keep it simple, we'll define a trap game as any game in which an above-.500 team plays a sub-.500 team during the week between two games against opponents who will finish the season with winning records. From 1983 through 2006, better teams went 389-85 in so-called trap games, a winning percentage of .820. That was actually higher than the winning percentage for better teams in non-trap games against losing teams (.815). And since we first conducted this research two years ago, better teams have an even stronger record in trap games: 24-4-1, for a winning percentage of .845. We also checked the record when a trap game came between two good division opponents. Teams had a slightly worse record in these games (.803) -- but no better team has lost a trap game that came between matchups against two good division opponents since 2000. http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/134403-biggest-trap-game-on-the-schedule-this-week/ Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Colts win this game. I still don't think they're making the playoffs without Peyton, but this game has "trap" written all over it with respect to the Texans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 http://forums.twobil...dule-this-week/ Clearly I meant some other form of trap -- like a bear trap. Or venus fly trap. Oh, just shut your trap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Beebe Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Actually they only ranked top 10 a few times in the 90s. I only know that because I just looked it up last week for a separate discussion. Some seasons in the 90s they were downright bad against the run, including '91 and '93. After Fred Smerlas left our nose tackle was a better pass rusher than a run stuffer if we could have kept Fred another year we would have wonthat first Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 Yeah, but there are other articles and studies that say the same thing...this was merely the first one that popped up on Google. Here's one. And from another article, on ESPN, several years ago: Myth No. 4: Watch out for "trap games." The Indianapolis Colts show up in prime time three times in the first five weeks of next season. The biggest of those games is probably the Week 5 meeting with the Tennessee Titans, the team that finally knocked them out of first place in the AFC South. Two weeks before that, the Colts play a sure-to-be shootout with the defending NFC champion Arizona Cardinals. In between, the Colts host the Seattle Seahawks, coming off a dismal 4-12 season. Get ready for national commentators and Indy sports radio hosts to warn the Colts about the dreaded "trap game." The only problem? There is no such thing. To keep it simple, we'll define a trap game as any game in which an above-.500 team plays a sub-.500 team during the week between two games against opponents who will finish the season with winning records. From 1983 through 2006, better teams went 389-85 in so-called trap games, a winning percentage of .820. That was actually higher than the winning percentage for better teams in non-trap games against losing teams (.815). And since we first conducted this research two years ago, better teams have an even stronger record in trap games: 24-4-1, for a winning percentage of .845. We also checked the record when a trap game came between two good division opponents. Teams had a slightly worse record in these games (.803) -- but no better team has lost a trap game that came between matchups against two good division opponents since 2000. I think the trap game is more valid in college football then it is in the pros. In the pros every team is capable to a certain extent. You always see it in college though. A team will sleep walk to a win against a much inferior opponent the week prior to a big game. The team usually wins because talent eventually prevails but they very rarely cover. I see it time & time again & it is one of the few advantages & insights a handicapper has over the sports books that set the lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 The weather forecast has improved significantly for Sunday's game: http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/US/NY/Orchard_Park.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted November 6, 2014 Author Share Posted November 6, 2014 The weather forecast has improved significantly for Sunday's game: http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/US/NY/Orchard_Park.html yeahhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted November 6, 2014 Share Posted November 6, 2014 thinking on the post WRT HFA. IIRC - Tampa has/had never won a game when the temp at kickoff was less than 40 degrees This hasn't been the case for a while thanks to our very own Rob Johnson. From Wikipedia: "The temperature at kickoff was 38°, and Tampa Bay looked to snap a 0–21 record in games under 40°. Rob Johnson passed for 134 yards and no interceptions, and Michael Pittman rushed for 90 yards, but the Buccaneers offense could not score a touchdown. Martín Gramática kicked a franchise-best 5-out-of-5 field goals, and his 15 points were the only scores of the game. Bears quarterback Henry Burris was intercepted four times by Tampa Bay (twice by Brian Kelly, and once each by Brooks and Smith). With the win, Tampa Bay secured a bye for the wild card round and recorded the club's first win with the temperature under 40°. The Buccaneers finished with a franchise-best 12–4 regular season record along with a club-best 6–2 road record." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Tampa_Bay_Buccaneers_season I believe all 21 points were from FGs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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