Doug Whaley joined L.A. Bills Backers to watch games this morning

[Orton's Arm]

If you actually look at the full range of stats Glennon has slightly outperformed EJ in their NFL careers to date, but it is a very marginal difference, neither has shown enough thus far to suggest that they are the answer for their QB needy franchises. But that doesn't change my argument that if I was looking at a guy in that 2013 draft and thinking "none of these guys look to me like sure fire hits" I would have been looking for the guy who I think had the most potential to become something special and that for me was EJ Manuel. Now you might not like that because it focuses somewhat on measurables and on the personality, but all the guys had issues with accuracy. They all had issues with footwork. They all had issues with reading defenses. So that was what I'd have made my decision based upon. I also believe it very likely that he would not have been there at #8 in the second round.

 

It was, without question, a punt. Some of us said at the time - even those that liked the pick - this is a punt. But we had backed ourselves into a corner with our previous strategy. Some of you think they should have waited and taken a QB in 2014 and ridden out kolb and TJax, even if they had there wasn't a massively better crop hanging around in 2014. Certainly if you look at the numbers for Bridgewater and Bortles so far that bears that out. Derek Carr is the one who is probably outperforming his draft position so far.

 

It is the "look at all these clever franchises taking Bridgewater, Glennon, Garoppolo, [insert flavour of the week]" posts that continue to annoy me when so far there is nothing to suggest that any of them were cleverer than this Bills. Some of these same people were saying how obvious it was to their eye test that Geno Smith was better until 3 or 4 weeks ago. We have just had in my view 2 drafts from which not many, if any, true franchise calibre QBs will appear. Buffalo missed the boat in the couple of drafts before that which heralded a number of decent options.

 

> If you actually look at the full range of stats Glennon has slightly outperformed EJ in their NFL careers to date

 

This season, well over 80% of Manuel's passes have been to targets less than 10 yards away. I'm not talking 10 yards away from the line of scrimmage. I'm talking 10 yards away from himself personally. Nor is it like these were passes on crossing routes, to targets moving horizontally. No. These were passes to stationary targets. If we're talking passes to stationary targets, less than ten yards away, we're talking passes I could have thrown. Easy passes, at least for me. (And for plenty of others here on this board.) Boring passes.

 

Sometimes, guys like Sammy Watkins or Fred Jackson would generate really great yards after the catch (YAC) yards after receiving a dump-off pass from Manuel. Most statistical measures of a quarterback's performance lump air yards together with YAC yards. Measures like that are a great benefit to Manuel, because 67% of his total passing yards came from YAC yards. That's the highest percentage of any starting QB in 2014. In contrast, only 32% of Glennon's total passing yards came from YAC yards. When air yards and YAC yards are lumped together, Glennon and Manuel look fairly similar. But when the two quarterbacks are given credit for their air yards only, Glennon absolutely destroys Manuel. QBR is another stat which draws a distinction between air yards and YAC yards. Glennon's QBR for the season is 55.9, Manuel's is 19.8. Manuel has a long, long way to go before he even approaches Glennon's performance as a quarterback. Manuel is currently well below what we saw from Losman or Edwards. Neither of whom could hold onto roster spots as backups.

 

> Now you might not like that because it focuses somewhat on measurables and on the personality, but all the guys had issues with accuracy

 

The best way to do an exercise like this is to start with the guys who became something special. Of the QBs active in the NFL today, which ones have had the best careers? I'd list Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Ben Roethlisberger. For the most part, those guys don't have exceptional physical tools, except for Roethlisberger's sheer size and strength. They became special because of their exceptional accuracy and ability to process information quickly. I've read that Drew Bledsoe needed over three seconds to see what Tom Brady could see in less than two. That difference in information processing ability is perhaps the single most important reason why Brady is one of the best quarterbacks ever, and Bledsoe is not.

 

Generally speaking, special quarterbacks are accurate and able to process information quickly. If you don't see special accuracy or information processing ability in any QB from the 2013 draft class, there's no reason to believe that any of them could become something special. In which case, the correct solution is to not draft anyone from that weak QB class, and wait until next year.

 

> But we had backed ourselves into a corner with our previous strategy.

 

True. But burning a first round pick on a standard-issue first round bust type QB isn't the right answer. (Any more than sinking $20,000 into a Ponzi scheme is the right way to make up for previous financial mistakes.) As Manuel's supporters keep telling us, the original plan had been for the project (read: bust) QB to sit and learn for at least a year, with Kolb as the starter. If starting Kolb was their planned short-term solution, they didn't need Manuel for that.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Orton's Arm

[Garion]

Awesome thanks for posting.

[cwchze]

Great post and insight from you on Whaley, who I think has done an outstanding

job adding talent to this roster. We can argue all day about EJ being picked in the

first round etc. It doesnt really matter, he is our quaterback of the future who they

are going to try everything to make him a success. That is what winning organizations do.

He was struggling with the pro game and it was time for him to sit and assess the issues.

Next chance he gets I bet the game will start to slow down for him and he makes better

decisions with the ball.

From my perspective he just has trouble seeing the entire field and misses open

receivers. He does throw a good ball but his accuracy has to deal with his

footwork more than anything. If he gets to sit this year and learn from orton I bet

he will be back better than ever.If not then they gave him an honest chance to

be successful and its on him. Hey mr aaron rodgers sat for three years till it

was his time. Not a bad idea for mr manuel..!

The steal of that 2013 draft was robert woods. I am so glad we grabbed him, He is

the most polished receiver of that class with his precise route running and hands.

Kudos to whaley/nix etc for the first three picks and the trade up this year to

get the playmaker.

Exciting to be a bills fan..!

[GunnerBill]

In answer to Orton's Arm -

 

1. I don't believe everything is about air yards. It is one metric not the only metric. Glennon often tries to force things down the field that aren't there - there have been whole quarters where the Buccs haven't been able to move at all because he isn't taking what the defense gives him. So whilst it is an important stat I prefer to look at the overall picture. I know you don't agree but there you are.

 

2. I don't disagree with your analysis of the guys who often become great. But there are guys playing in this league and performing as decent starters who don't fit that mould. I remain firmly of the view that picking from the crop I'd pick EJ Manuel every time because he had more going for him than any of the others when I boil it all down.

 

3. You believe it was a realistic option for the Bills not to draft a QB in 2013..... I don't necessarily think you are wrong.... you could have said "there isn't one worth taking" and ridden with TJax and Kolb but they put themselves in a position where it was difficult to make the call because they had ignored it in the draft for so long. The fact is there has to be a happy medium between caution and risk.... it looks like the Bills took the wrong risk but I believe they had backed themselves into a corner where they kind of had to take one.

[BADOLBILZ]

Busby's is a great place to watch a Bills game away from the stadium. I was there for the Vikings game and saw Kelly and AKC and had a great time. Great atmosphere that day even though they were playing poorly most of the game and were coming off a bad loss. That middle room was like being in the stadium when the Bills scored.

[JohnC]

In answer to Orton's Arm -

 

The fact is there has to be a happy medium between caution and risk.... it looks like the Bills took the wrong risk but I believe they had backed themselves into a corner where they kind of had to take one.

 

Why does a Blaine Gabbert type player get drafted in the first round? Because an organization acts out of desperation rather than taking a strategic view of building a roster. In the long run thinking strategically rather than tactically always works out better When you are in a panic mode to address a critical need more often than not you end up sabotaging yourself in getting better.

 

The irony is that Nix had more than enough opportunities to address the qb issue prior to his last draft. Other franchises prospered on the qb prospects that he passed on. If the organization was in such a desperate situation it was because of their many miscalculations from their prior drafts.

[GunnerBill]

Why does a Blaine Gabbert type player get drafted in the first round? Because an organization acts out of desperation rather than taking a strategic view of building a roster. In the long run thinking strategically rather than tactically always works out better When you are in a panic mode to address a critical need more often than not you end up sabotaging yourself in getting better.

 

The irony is that Nix had more than enough opportunities to address the qb issue prior to his last draft. Other franchises prospered on the qb prospects that he passed on. If the organization was in such a desperate situation it was because of their many miscalculations from their prior drafts.

 

I don't disagree with any of that.