Doug Whaley joined L.A. Bills Backers to watch games this morning

[3rdand12]

I still say if you look at the 2013 draft as taking Kiko at 16 and woods and EJ in the 2nd, it "feels better." EJ was always a project. He is looked at differently because he was taken in the 1st. But the financial commitment isn't that great anymore.

 

The only difference IMO is if we had Kiko as a 1st rounder then we'd have him for 5 years instead of 4 before he becomes a FA.

No it doesnt " feel better " when you look at the QB position as it stands.

But it was a damned smart and effective turning of a difficult situation into a definitive win in the bigger picture . Stick with your guns Ohio!.

We did not score THE exalted QB of the future ...maybe . But he took a shot didn't he. They had too do something big .

 

The Kiko and Woods score is a fine job of hedgeing your bet dont you all think ? Nice trade .

I know we coulda got a better deal blah blah blah

: )

 

Agreed--I always felt that Jackson was at least as good an option as Kolb.

The mystery lives.

weird and wacky stuff Tavaris Jackson was for the Bills personnel to be graded upon.

area 51 weird

[Mango]

 

 

 

Yup. You've offered no solution of what they should have done instead. Draft Nassib or Barkley and hope for the best? Developmental players get drafted all the time in the first round. EJ is no exception. You are adding all sorts of revisionist history about Geno too. He was talked about as going first overall, but you wouldn't have drafted him until the third round?

 

The Bills took a chance on the biggest strongest QB in the draft and hoped the collective team around him would make him better. It would have been irresponsible of the coaching staff and the FO to wait another year to get a guy that could be the QB. You talk about how the Bills created a desperate situation? The situation you would have done makes the situation even more dire.

 

To revise history, the only way the bills don't draft a QB in 2013 is not to cut Fitz. This talk of not taking one is silly. We didn't have one on the roster.

[Coach Tuesday]

So in other words, it's all about value at a draft position? So you would be happy if we took Kiko at #1, which was a need position, and then took EJ at #2 instead because he was a second round guy?

 

I must admit I'm not totally following you. What JohnC is saying - which I agree with - is that the extra pick that Whaley picked up effectively was squandered on EJ. A much better value would've been to make that same trade, but take an OL/TE/LB/what-have-you with the #1, and Kiko with the #2. EJ is a developmental QB prospect. He didn't warrant a 1st round pick, nor did he warrant a 2nd round pick in my (uninformed, perhaps) estimation. He's a fourth to fifth-round project, not dissimilar from Nassib and Mettenberger and Osweiler.

 

Have our standards diminished so much that as long as our GM makes a good trade and a smart 2nd round value pick, we forgive the botched first round investment?

 

Put another way: Seantrel Henderson in Round 7 does not excuse blowing a pick on Kujo in Round 2. A savvier GM would've gotten Seantrel in Round 7 and would've used the 2nd round pick on someone who can actually play in the NFL. This is not too much to ask...

Edited November 6, 2014 by Coach Tuesday

[JohnC]

So in other words, it's all about value at a draft position? So you would be happy if we took Kiko at #1, which was a need position, and then took EJ at #2 instead because he was a second round guy?

 

Yes, it is very much getting value at a draft position.

 

No I would not have been happy drafting Kiko in the first round becausewe we were able to get him in the second round. Kiko was a second round value player who got drafted where he should have been drafted. The mistake was using a first round pick on a developmental qb who could have been taken in a lower round. If the team was so enamored with EJ and determined to get him they should have traded down again (if they could) in the first round and taken EJ at a lower point and then get an extra pick from the second trade down.

 

You keep missing the point. Kiko was a terrific value pick in the second round. The pick used for EJ in the first round should have been used for a first round graded player. The Bills had plenty of needs. Getting a player ranked in the area where EJ was picked would have been the best approach to take.

 

Again, the strategy is simple. Don't overreach for needs. Draft talent in the vicinity where they are ranked. That did not happen in last year's draft. In my opinion it was a mistake.

[Coach Tuesday]

Yes, it is very much getting value at a draft position.

 

No I would not have been happy drafting Kiko in the first round becausewe we were able to get him in the second round. Kiko was a second round value player who got drafted where he should have been drafted. The mistake was using a first round pick on a developmental qb who could have been taken in a lower round. If the team was so enamored with EJ and determined to get him they should have traded down again (if they could) in the first round and taken EJ at a lower point and then get an extra pick from the second trade down.

 

You keep missing the point. Kiko was a terrific value pick in the second round. The pick used for EJ in the first round should have been used for a first round graded player. The Bills had plenty of needs. Getting a player ranked in the area where EJ was picked would have been the best approach to take.

 

Again, the strategy is simple. Don't overreach for needs. Draft talent in the vicinity where they are ranked. That did not happen in last year's draft. In my opinion it was a mistake.

 

Exactly. A great GM understands (1) where the player should go, in terms of talent and value; and (2) where the player WILL go, based on how other teams estimate his talent and value. BOTH OF THESE ANALYSES ARE CRITICAL.

[JohnC]

To revise history, the only way the bills don't draft a QB in 2013 is not to cut Fitz. This talk of not taking one is silly. We didn't have one on the roster.

 

You and many others are missing the point. If the organization was determined to draft a qb in 2013 they should have drafted a qb in the vicinity of where they were ranked. Manuel was a developmental type prospect (as it is very evident for everyone to see) who was drafted way above his value.

 

In addition, why did the Bills have to draft a qb in the first round when the talent level of that year's draft class was clearly below the first round level? Instead of over-drafting a qb they could have found a second tier veteran qb as a bridge qb until another draft when they could have drafted a first round value qb?

[Orton's Arm]

I have seen a lot of this lately. That people are saying two simultaneous things, but they contradict each other. You either take a results stance, or a theory stance. I don't think you can take one for one occurrence that fits your narrative and then the opposite for a different occurrence that fits your narrative.

 

If you say EJ was clearly a bad pick because it was too high and he's SHOWN that he is not going to be good, then you HAVE to accept the trade and the retrospect look at Kiko, too, because that was the occurrence. That was the #8 pick. That's a fact. EJ and Kiko for the #8 pick.

 

If you want to look at it theoretically, that you do not reach for a QB at the position in the first round if you don't have one but no one is worthy, that is a very fair criticism, but you still, IMO, have to include a high #2 pick that he got (and then disregard the fact that it turn into gold).

 

He didn't just sit there and take a QB at #1 when there wasn't a good one available. That didn't happen, so IMO you cannot fault him for it.

 

> That was the #8 pick. That's a fact. EJ and Kiko for the #8 pick.

 

You and I see this differently. I see EJ Manuel as the 16th overall pick, and Kiko Alonzo as the 46th overall pick. The fact that it made a ton of sense to take Kiko 46th overall has nothing at all to do with whether Manuel was deserving of that 16th overall pick.

 

The other way to look at it is that Alonzo was so good as to himself justify the 8th overall pick. And that, because of Kiko's success, anything at all Manuel might do with his career should be regarded as a bonus.

 

The thing is, I don't want a general manager who thinks that way. I don't want him to say to himself, "I'm really confident in the linebacker I'm eyeing. So confident that I can afford to throw away my first round pick on a quarterback with great physical tools and little else."

 

I'm assuming that Whaley/Nix didn't embrace the above-described thought process. I'm assuming that they did their very best to evaluate Manuel, and concluded he was worth a first round draft pick. If that's the best evaluation they could provide, then that to me strongly suggests they cannot be trusted to evaluate quarterback talent. Manuel fit the profile of a standard-issue first round bust. Great physical tools, but did nothing to suggest he was particularly accurate or good at quickly processing information on a college football field. To make matters worse, Whaley is still "high on EJ." It's not like he's learned from his past mistake, and can be trusted to do a better job in the future. The fact he is continuing to delude himself about Manuel may impact whether the Bills hold onto Orton.

 

Pegula needs to decide whether Whaley is the right GM for the Bills. Everything I've seen thus far indicates Whaley is not the right man to pick the Bills' quarterback. Nor offensive linemen, for that matter. However, there are other positions he does seem good at evaluating, such as linebacker and wide receiver. I give him credit for that, but it's not enough.

[Kelly the Dog]

I must admit I'm not totally following you. What JohnC is saying - which I agree with - is that the extra pick that Whaley picked up effectively was squandered on EJ. A much better value would've been to make that same trade, but take an OL/TE/LB/what-have-you with the #1, and Kiko with the #2. EJ is a developmental QB prospect. He didn't warrant a 1st round pick, nor did he warrant a 2nd round pick in my (uninformed, perhaps) estimation. He's a fourth to fifth-round project, not dissimilar from Nassib and Mettenberger and Osweiler.

 

Have our standards diminished so much that as long as our GM makes a good trade and a smart 2nd round value pick, we forgive the botched first round investment?

I think "value" is a nonsense term to be honest. I have doubts EJ will ever be a good QB let alone franchise QB. You can always look back and say we should have taken this or that guy. But the fact is, when #1 draft picks are 50-50 chances being a bust, the fact that Whaley got Kiko and EJ with the #8 pick, to me, is very good if not great drafting. It just is.

 

And I think it has been pretty well established that a few teams liked EJ and he was going in the first or second round.

 

If it were EJ and say Kujo, then you could say at this time it looks like a crappy pick.

[Coach Tuesday]

 

I think "value" is a nonsense term to be honest. I have doubts EJ will ever be a good QB let alone franchise QB. You can always look back and say we should have taken this or that guy. But the fact is, when #1 draft picks are 50-50 chances being a bust, the fact that Whaley got Kiko and EJ with the #8 pick, to me, is very good if not great drafting. It just is.

 

And I think it has been pretty well established that a few teams liked EJ and he was going in the first or second round.

 

Oh but it's even worse! Had NE taken EJ in RD1 (as is the rumor), our division rivals would've wasted THEIR first-round pick and would be grooming a future QB who appears to suck!

[Kelly the Dog]

Oh but it's even worse! Had NE taken EJ in RD1 (as is the rumor), our division rivals would've wasted THEIR first-round pick and would be grooming a future QB who appears to suck!

Well if it were New England, Bellicheat would be declared a genius who stole EJ and is now set at QB for the next 20 years.

[JohnC]

Well if it were New England, Bellicheat would be declared a genius who stole EJ and is now set at QB for the next 20 years.

 

Belichick drafted a qb in the second round this year that is a better prospect than the qb we drafted in the first round last year. That doesn't make him a genius but it does demonstrate why certain franchises succeed more than others.

[Kelly the Dog]

Yes, it is very much getting value at a draft position.

 

Again, the strategy is simple. Don't overreach for needs. Draft talent in the vicinity where they are ranked. That did not happen in last year's draft. In my opinion it was a mistake.

Who has them ranked? Todd McShay? The Bills needed a QB to groom in the worst way. The fact the Bills didnt take EJ at 8 is proof positive as I said they didn't consider him a sure fire franchise guy. There was not one available. If they waited until 8 in the second round he would have been gone. It was a great frigging trade and use of the 8th pick. They got their pick of a QB for the possible future, there is no one who looks like they will be better even if he doesn't pan out, and we got a star linebacker.

 

To look at it in retrospect, and say we should have taken a better player than EJ AND have taken Kiko, when no one before the draft ever wanted them to take Kiko, and barely ever heard of him, is a ridiculous position to take. I'm sorry. And I like a lot of your stances a lot, one of my favorite posters here.

 

Belichick drafted a qb in the second round this year that is a better prospect than the qb we drafted in the first round last year. That doesn't make him a genius but it does demonstrate why certain franchises succeed more than others.

EJ would have been taken ahead of Garropolo in either draft.

[Mango]

Yes I am an EJ fan. I hope he turns into our guy. Whether or not he does is irrelevant. Not only did we get our guy, we got what looks like maybe the best QB in the class at 16 plus an additional pick. As for Whaley still liking EJ's chances, the FO has shown that even though they like him they are not afraid to move on, by playing Orton. Whether this turns out to be the case in the future has yet to be seen, but so far they have shown they will play the better guy not just the one they like.

 

You can't run your GM out of town for one pick, sorry. The rest of that draft has been solid, FA's good. If we ride with a failing EJ for 3 more years it's a reasonable debate. As of now I think we are jumping at conclusions.

 

Also say EJ wasn't there in the second, there have been a lot of broad strokes painted by saying "there will be a journeyman they could have gotten" or "get somebody else like team x did a year later. Hence the only way I see the Bills not getting a QB in 2013 capable of starting is by keeping Fitz. The stage was set for the pick prior to it. Bills did what they had to do, and of the QB's got the best value.

[Orton's Arm]

Who has them ranked? Todd McShay? The Bills needed a QB to groom in the worst way. The fact the Bills didnt take EJ at 8 is proof positive as I said they didn't consider him a sure fire franchise guy. There was not one available. If they waited until 8 in the second round he would have been gone. It was a great frigging trade and use of the 8th pick. They got their pick of a QB for the possible future, there is no one who looks like they will be better even if he doesn't pan out, and we got a star linebacker.

 

To look at it in retrospect, and say we should have taken a better player than EJ AND have taken Kiko, when no one before the draft ever wanted them to take Kiko, and barely ever heard of him, is a ridiculous position to take. I'm sorry. And I like a lot of your stances a lot, one of my favorite posters here.

 

 

EJ would have been taken ahead of Garropolo in either draft.

 

> If they waited until 8 in the second round he would have been gone.

 

Fine with me. Let some other team squander an early pick on a standard-issue quarterback bust.

 

> there is no one who looks like they will be better even if he doesn't pan out

 

This season, Manuel averaged 2.13 air yards per attempt. Glennon is averaging is more than double that, at 4.77. There's no reason to describe Manuel as being at least as good as Glennon, when he isn't coming remotely close to matching Glennon's production.

 

> It was a great frigging trade and use of the 8th pick.

 

Kiko is a superb football player. Is he 8th overall good? Possibly. But it's way too early to tell.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Orton's Arm

[JohnC]

Who has them ranked? Todd McShay? The Bills needed a QB to groom in the worst way. The fact the Bills didnt take EJ at 8 is proof positive as I said they didn't consider him a sure fire franchise guy. There was not one available. If they waited until 8 in the second round he would have been gone. It was a great frigging trade and use of the 8th pick. They got their pick of a QB for the possible future, there is no one who looks like they will be better even if he doesn't pan out, and we got a star linebacker.

 

To look at it in retrospect, and say we should have taken a better player than EJ AND have taken Kiko, when no one before the draft ever wanted them to take Kiko, and barely ever heard of him, is a ridiculous position to take. I'm sorry. And I like a lot of your stances a lot, one of my favorite posters here.

 

 

EJ would have been taken ahead of Garropolo in either draft.

 

 

Kiko was a well known prospect that had a second round grade. He was one of the top defensive players in the highly rated PAC conference. He was not a surprise pick who was taken higher than he should have been taken.

 

I respectfully disagree with you that EJ was a better prospect than Grappolo. If both players were in the same draft most organizations would have taken Grappolo.

Edited November 6, 2014 by JohnC

[Kelly the Dog]

> If they waited until 8 in the second round he would have been gone.

 

Fine with me. Let some other team squander an early pick on a standard-issue quarterback bust.

 

> there is no one who looks like they will be better even if he doesn't pan out

 

This season, Manuel averaged 2.13 air yards per attempt. Glennon is averaging is more than double that, at 4.77. There's no reason to describe Manuel as being at least as good as Glennon, when he isn't coming remotely close to matching Glennon's production.

 

> It was a great frigging trade and use of the 8th pick.

 

Kiko is a superb football player. But is he 8th overall good? Possibly. But it's way too early to tell.

EJ was 2-2 as a starter. He looks like a rookie project who needs experience. He's not ready to play on a team that is good enough to reach the playoffs. That is not a surprise to anyone who watches football seriously.

 

Glennon is terrible IMO. If you think he makes a better pro, everyone is right to their opinion. Glennon stinks. He can throw a great looking ball once in awhile, that's it.

 

 

I respectfully disagree with you that EJ was a better prospect than Grappolo. If both players were in the same draft most organizations would have taken Grappolo.

This is the one I use the most, and I think is the best overall.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/archive/1760229

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1630280/ej-manuel

 

Manuel was a 1-2. Garoppolo 2. EJ was 40 overall. JG 47.

 

Granted, two different years will get a little different results but this was how I saw it in general.

[Kelly the Dog]

Gil Brandt had EJ 27 overall and Garopollo 37. That's first round versus second.

 

Mayock, who I also like, had EJ at 41 and Garopollo at 39 I think. That supports your case but those are the three I looked up so I listed them all. Mayock didn't really like EJ as a prospect but 39 and 41 are pretty even. EJ was his second QB, Garopollo 4 but that doesn't mean anything in two different years.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Kelly the Dog

[Orton's Arm]

EJ was 2-2 as a starter. He looks like a rookie project who needs experience. He's not ready to play on a team that is good enough to reach the playoffs. That is not a surprise to anyone who watches football seriously.

 

Glennon is terrible IMO. If you think he makes a better pro, everyone is right to their opinion. Glennon stinks. He can throw a great looking ball once in awhile, that's it.

 

 

This is the one I use the most, and I think is the best overall.

 

http://www.cbssports...archive/1760229

http://www.cbssports...30280/ej-manuel

 

Manuel was a 1-2. Garoppolo 2. EJ was 40 overall. JG 47.

 

Granted, two different years will get a little different results but this was how I saw it in general.

 

> If you think [Glennon] makes a better pro, everyone is right to their opinion.

 

What aspects of Manuel's game do you like more than Glennon's? Do you think Manuel is more accurate than Glennon? Better at reading the field?

 

If you think Manuel is more accurate than Glennon, or better at reading defenses, or whatever, then what is your explanation for the fact that Manuel's production (as measured by air yards per attempt) is less than half that of Glennon's? Do you think that Tampa Bay's receiving corps is better than Watkins/Woods/Williams?

 

> Glennon stinks. He can throw a great looking ball once in awhile, that's it.

 

Even assuming that's true, how does that make him worse than EJ?

 

> Manuel was a 1-2. Garoppolo 2.

 

What's important isn't just the ranking. It's the text description of the quarterbacks. Garappolo's description praised his throwing accuracy, as well as his "excellent passing vision with quick eyes." Accuracy and information processing ability are the two most important traits to look for when evaluating a QB. Garoppolo displayed both in college, Manuel displayed neither. Garoppolo was by far the better prospect. Which is why he was drafted by a well-run organization; whereas Manuel was taken by a poorly run team with little ability to evaluate quarterback talent.

[GunnerBill]

If you actually look at the full range of stats Glennon has slightly outperformed EJ in their NFL careers to date, but it is a very marginal difference, neither has shown enough thus far to suggest that they are the answer for their QB needy franchises. But that doesn't change my argument that if I was looking at a guy in that 2013 draft and thinking "none of these guys look to me like sure fire hits" I would have been looking for the guy who I think had the most potential to become something special and that for me was EJ Manuel. Now you might not like that because it focuses somewhat on measurables and on the personality, but all the guys had issues with accuracy. They all had issues with footwork. They all had issues with reading defenses. So that was what I'd have made my decision based upon. I also believe it very likely that he would not have been there at #8 in the second round.

 

It was, without question, a punt. Some of us said at the time - even those that liked the pick - this is a punt. But we had backed ourselves into a corner with our previous strategy. Some of you think they should have waited and taken a QB in 2014 and ridden out kolb and TJax, even if they had there wasn't a massively better crop hanging around in 2014. Certainly if you look at the numbers for Bridgewater and Bortles so far that bears that out. Derek Carr is the one who is probably outperforming his draft position so far.

 

It is the "look at all these clever franchises taking Bridgewater, Glennon, Garoppolo, [insert flavour of the week]" posts that continue to annoy me when so far there is nothing to suggest that any of them were cleverer than this Bills. Some of these same people were saying how obvious it was to their eye test that Geno Smith was better until 3 or 4 weeks ago. We have just had in my view 2 drafts from which not many, if any, true franchise calibre QBs will appear. Buffalo missed the boat in the couple of drafts before that which heralded a number of decent options.

[JohnC]

If you actually look at the full range of stats Glennon has slightly outperformed EJ in their NFL careers to date, but it is a very marginal difference, neither has shown enough thus far to suggest that they are the answer for their QB needy franchises. But that doesn't change my argument that if I was looking at a guy in that 2013 draft and thinking "none of these guys look to me like sure fire hits" I would have been looking for the guy who I think had the most potential to become something special and that for me was EJ Manuel. Now you might not like that because it focuses somewhat on measurables and on the personality, but all the guys had issues with accuracy. They all had issues with footwork. They all had issues with reading defenses. So that was what I'd have made my decision based upon. I also believe it very likely that he would not have been there at #8 in the second round.

 

It was, without question, a punt. Some of us said at the time - even those that liked the pick - this is a punt. But we had backed ourselves into a corner with our previous strategy. Some of you think they should have waited and taken a QB in 2014 and ridden out kolb and TJax, even if they had there wasn't a massively better crop hanging around in 2014. Certainly if you look at the numbers for Bridgewater and Bortles so far that bears that out. Derek Carr is the one who is probably outperforming his draft position so far.

 

It is the "look at all these clever franchises taking Bridgewater, Glennon, Garoppolo, [insert flavour of the week]" posts that continue to annoy me when so far there is nothing to suggest that any of them were cleverer than this Bills. Some of these same people were saying how obvious it was to their eye test that Geno Smith was better until 3 or 4 weeks ago. We have just had in my view 2 drafts from which not many, if any, true franchise calibre QBs will appear. Buffalo missed the boat in the couple of drafts before that which heralded a number of decent options.

 

Many people are arguing that they Bills needed to draft a qb with a high round pick in the 2013 draft. Most analysts stated that the 2013 qb class was mediocre. So why dip into the mediocre pool to find your qb of the future? There were other options. In fact the very late Orton acquisition is a testament to going with the bridge qb and continue with your search for a long-term franchise qb.

 

EJ was benched by a coach determined to not allow this team waste another year mired in mediocrity due to inadequate qb play. He had no other choice but to go with the veteran qb who gave him the best chance to succeed. The developmental qb that the Bills selected is in the position where he should have been all along, as a multi-year prospect. If that is the case then wouldn't it have been better to wait for another draft class or two and get a qb who is more highly rated and who has a better chance to become a franchise qb?

 

In my opinion Carr and Bridgewater were better prospects than EJ. Both are more accurate passers. In the few games that I watched Bridgewater there is no doubt in my mind that not only is he a better passer but he has more presence as a qb running an offense.

 

Only time will tell whether EJ will develop into what many hoped for. Buf after watching hm in this relatively short time span it is evident (to me) that his level of accuracy and his mechanics are too erratic for a league that requires impeccable accuracy and strong fundamentals in one's mechanics to succeed at that very challenging position.

 

I know it irritates some people to hear the same mantra but it is a mistake to overreach to draft for a need at the expense of passing on higher rated and more talented players. Without a doubt the Bills overreached with the selection of EJ. Anyone who has watched him even at this very early stage has to be troubled by what they have seen so far.